Reassessing the QB Carousel After the 1st Week of 2026 NFL Free Agency

We're into the second half of March now, and the NFL's annual offseason quarterback carousel has slowed after spinning violently during the first portion of the month. 

That said, there is still a lot of be settled when it comes to this game of musical quarterback chairs. 

Here's a rundown of where things stand, where they might go, and where we expect them to go in the days, weeks and months to come.

The Unsigned

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Russell Wilson

Kirk Cousins: The 37-year-old was released by Atlanta earlier this month. He's likely just a bridge now, which is why talk of the Raiders makes sense.

Jimmy Garoppolo: The 34-year-old was mentioned as a potential replacement for Kyler Murray in Arizona, which adds up considering that he'd be following Mike LaFleur from L.A. 

Aaron Rodgers: The four-time MVP is doing his best to manufacture another offseason speculation circus, as there is still no clear indication as to whether he'll retire, return to the Steelers, or land in a new home entirely. 

Russell Wilson: The 37-year-old was a logical potential short-term replacement and long-term insurance policy for Patrick Mahomes before the Chiefs acquired Justin Fields earlier this week. Now, he's likely waiting for other dominoes to fall. 

The Potential Trade Candidates

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Mac Jones

Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers: Jones looked like a potential long-term franchise quarterback in Brock Purdy's stead in 2025, and The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported recently that the team's asking price is "astronomical."

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: The team has doubled down on Daniel Jones, making a trade a distinct possibility. At the right price, the 23-year-old former No. 4 overall pick would be a worthwhile gamble. 

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: He'd be tough to move for financial reasons but is part of a huge stable of passers in Cleveland. The Browns would likely love to part ways if they could find a taker willing to work with them on the money. 

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: The 34-year-old has said he'd be willing to come out of retirement for the right opportunity, but it doesn't appear that'll be easy to find. 

The Hot Prospects

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Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: Widely expected to be the Raiders' No. 1 overall pick in next month's draft, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner would have very little competition if he were to join the Las Vegas quarterback depth chart in its current state. 

Ty Simpson, Alabama: The "other" quarterback in the first-round picture is likely to land somewhere without the expectation of starting Week 1. 

Teams That May Played Their Hands

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Kyler Murray

Atlanta Falcons

The Situation: With 2024 No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. still relatively unproven and recovering from a torn ACL, they've added Tua Tagovailoa to the mix on a low-risk, low-cost, one-year deal. 

Pros: Tagovailoa and Penix remain young and talented and could wind up battling while benefiting from the presence of a strong offensive line and one of the best running backs in the game. 

Cons: Both face major questions regarding their capability and their durability. 

Prediction: A well-supported Tagovailoa excels in a new home in 2026, but Penix pushes him if both are still on the roster in 2027. 

Indianapolis Colts

The Situation: The team has brought back Daniel Jones on a lucrative two-year contract, despite the fact the 28-year-old former No. 6 overall pick is recovering from a torn Achilles. Meanwhile, Richardson is either trade bait or an insurance policy. 

Pros: Richardson is cheap for now anyway, so it might make sense for the Colts to hang on considering that Jones has never been a reliable long-term starter in this league. 

Cons: On the other hand, keeping Richardson and turning down opportunities to improve the roster elsewhere could be seen as a hedge that shows a lack of true confidence in the guy you just threw $88 million at. 

Prediction: They wait to see how Jones' recovery goes this summer before dealing Richardson if all goes well. Arizona makes a lot of sense. 

Miami Dolphins

The Situation: After moving on from Tagovailoa, they made Malik Willis the 18th-highest-paid quarterback in the sport. 

Pros: Willis has upside after generating nine passing/rushing touchdowns to zero interceptions and posting a 134.6 passer rating in limited action the last two years in Green Bay.

Cons: This could be seen as an act of desperation for a team that is headed in the wrong direction. Willis has started just three games the last three seasons and didn't do enough for the Titans or Packers to keep him around.

Prediction: Willis struggles with "meh" support in a tough spot and the Dolphins bring in competition in 2027. 

Minnesota Vikings

The Situation: The team has clearly lost confidence in third-year No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy and has thus signed two-time Pro Bowler Kyler Murray to a cheap prove-it deal. It's a very similar situation to Atlanta's with Tua and Penix.

Pros: Maybe Murray can finally put it all together with a good line and a superstar receiver in Minnesota. But if not, McCarthy could still have a shot as well. Neither is costing much anyway. 

Cons: As with Tagovailoa and Penix, both face major questions regarding their capability and their durability. 

Prediction: A new environment paves the way for Murray to succeed in his first year with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings could even win a playoff game or two if Murray can stay healthy. 

New York Jets

The Situation: One year after replacing Aaron Rodgers with Justin Fields, the Jets have replaced Fields (traded to the Chiefs) with Geno Smith (acquired from the Raiders in exchange for a late-round pick swap). 

Pros: A team with two top-16 picks and four of the first 44 selections in April's draft appears to understand that its next franchise quarterback wasn't on the roster last season and isn't on it now. That's the first step in recovering from perennial mediocrity. 

Cons: Smith is still a 35-year-old waste of time, so they're likely looking at another lost season. 

Prediction: Smith bridges the gap to Simpson or a first-round pick in 2027 as the rebuild continues. That is unless they can convince the 49ers to take their second first-round pick for Mac Jones (a no-brainer).

Arizona Cardinals

The Situation: It's possible they're locked in with a temporary 2026 plan a la the Jets with Smith, but with a combination of Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II following Murray's release. 

Pros: Brissett was actually a higher-rated passer than C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams last season, and it's possible he'll take his game to another level with Murray out of the picture. The Cards also have the No. 3 overall pick and could maneuver for Simpson. 

Cons: Brissett is 33 and Minshew is realistically a high-end backup at best. Thus, this team is likely to remain uncompetitive for another year. Can they get good before Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride become expensive? The clock is ticking. 

Prediction: Brissett bridges the gap to Simpson or a first-round pick in 2027 as the rebuild continues. It's also possible they take a flier on Richardson this summer.

Teams That May Still Have Work to Do

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Aaron Rodgers

Cleveland Browns

The Situation: The new coaching staff has made it clear that this'll be a big 'ol QB rumble involving—at least—Watson, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel. 

Options on the Table: As we've noted, they could find a suitor for Watson if they want to leave it to the youngsters. Or they could make it even more interesting by adding Richardson from the Colts. 

Prediction: All three of the current quarterbacks make starts in 2026, but the Browns are in a similar predicament next spring, as nobody really emerges. 

Las Vegas Raiders 

The Situation: Mendoza at No. 1 feels like a fait accompli, but is a room of just him and Aidan O'Connell enough?

Options on the Table: Could they bring back Garoppolo? He or Russell Wilson could help bridge the gap and mentor Mendoza. Cousins and Carr are also intriguing but I doubt they'd be interested. There's also the grizzled Joe Flacco. 

Prediction: They eventually bring in the 41-year-old Flacco to work with Mendoza. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Situation: A team trying to win now with an accomplished new head coach can't feel great about a quarterback room that includes only Mason Rudolph and Will Howard as they await word from Rodgers. 

Options on the Table: Rodgers is widely expected to return, but he is an enigmatic dude. If he surprisingly retires—or if the organization simply can't work out a deal with him—a team that probably doesn't want to go back to Russell Wilson might try to make the 49ers an offer they can't refuse for Jones or throw some cash at Cousins. 

Prediction: Rodgers probably gives it one more shot. But if that doesn't transpire, I'm confident they wind up with Cousins as a stopgap.

San Francisco 49ers 

The Situation: Purdy is making the big bucks, but there is believed to be significant value attached to Jones. The 49ers have to decide how much that insurance policy means to them versus making a deal to benefit Purdy elsewhere. 

Options on the Table: Trade him to the Steelers, Browns, or Jets, or don't. But if a first-round pick is on the table, keeping him might be a luxury you can't justify. 

Prediction: Jones returns and nobody makes a splashy enough offer anyway, as the league may be wary of the fact that quarterbacks are artificially productive and efficient in Kyle Shanahan's system.