Is Karim Lopez a Lottery Pick? Here's What Our Latest 2026 NBA Mock Draft Says
After producing for two seasons in Australia's NBL, Karim Lopez is now on track to become the first Mexico-born first-round pick.
He had a regular role for the New Zealand Breakers last year at 17 years old. Now almost 19, he's made some notable strides physically and fundamentally. His pre-draft career peaked in January when he erupted for 32 points in a win over Melbourne.
Lopez just set the record for most points in a season by a draft-eligible member of the league's Next Stars program, which has included current NBA players LaMelo Ball, Alex Sarr, Josh Giddey, Alex Toohey, Ariel Hukporti, Bobi Klintman and Rocco Zikarsky.
Team: New Zealand | Position: PF | Height: 6'8" | Weight: 225 lbs | Age: 18 | PPG: 11.9 | RPG: 6.1 | APG: 2.0 | BPG: 1.0 | SPG: 1.2 | FG%: 50.2 | 3PT%: 32.6
Latest Mock Position
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No. 16
Realistic Draft Range: Late lottery, mid-first round
Lopez has remained in the same projected draft range for most of the season. There's a sense he lacks the same type of upside as most projected top-10 picks, but approaching 19 with an advanced frame, an inside-out skill set and proof of production in a pro league, there's also a high-floor projection that makes him feel safe.
He'll have the opportunity to improve his chances of going in the lottery during the NBA combine and workouts by easing concerns over his shooting and impressing during interviews.
Realistic Pro Comparison: Franz Wagner
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Lopez shares a similar body type and skill set as Franz Wagner, who is 6'9", handles the ball and plays both forward positions.
Their identities are built around offensive versatility. They'll finish through contact inside or run a pick-and-roll. Wagner has been an effective secondary playmaker, and Lopez has delivered flashes of passing IQ that his current numbers might hide.
Otherwise, Wagner has been a league-average shooter, and that will be an important goal for Lopez over the next few years.
Strengths
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Strength 1: Positional size/strength
Grown men in the NBL have had trouble holding their ground against a teenager. Lopez has a strong center of gravity. He's able to move defenders back inside and play through them on drives.
Strength 2: Offensive versatility
While Lopez might not have one signature skill, he can score in a variety of ways with spot-up threes, drives, cuts, offensive boards and the occasional post-up. Despite pedestrian assist numbers, he's also a smart passer who can process quickly. Lopez needs to keep sharpening each area of his game, but he's flashed potential as a ball-handler, shooter, inside scorer and ball-mover.
Strength 3: Experience/toughness
Lopez didn't look out of place or too young playing against pros and former NBA draft picks. He averaged 11.9 points and 6.1 rebounds, and even contributed as a starter to the Breakers winning this year's Ignite Cup.
Weaknesses
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Weakness 1: Contested shotmaking
Lopez struggled to make outside shots that weren't open rhythm threes. He shot just 21.4 percent on guarded catch-and-shoot attempts and 33.3 percent on dribble jumpers.
Weakness 2: Creation
Drafting Lopez early means betting that more creation will unlock for him down the road. Though he's capable of attacking a ball screen or closeout, he hasn't shown too much one-on-one skill from any spot on the floor.
Weakness 3: Off-ball defense
Lopez was prone to make the wrong reads defending off the ball, whether it was unnecessarily helping off a shooter or not getting himself in position to rotate. He didn't provide a lot of resistance when defending drives on closeouts, and he didn't always look intense while getting out to contest catch-and-shoot threes.
