The Biggest NFL Free-Agent Busts Waiting to Happen in 2026

Can you hear that sound of paper rustling? That's the NFL's 32 teams getting huge sums of money ready to throw at this year's crop of free agents.

Free agency is one of the most exciting parts of the offseason calendar—a time when fans breathlessly await their favorite team making the kind of massive splash move that makes headlines and can rapidly reverse a franchise's fortunes.

However, there's a dark side to those deals. If a multi-year contract for big bucks doesn't result in Pro Bowls, stats, wins and all that good stuff, then cheers can quickly turn to jeers. The general manager who offers that pact can wind up looking for work soon, and the player who signed on the dotted line can swiftly be labeled a bust.

Sometimes, those players just can't duplicate the career year that got them paid. Other guys get hurt. Some aren't truly 'bad' so much as they simply fail to play up to their robust new salary.

Whatever the reason, every year there are cautionary tales in free agency regarding the risk involved every time a team breaks out the checkbook.

QB Malik Willis

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

The news that the Arizona Cardinals plan to release quarterback Kyler Murray may have thrown some cold water on the market for Malik Willis, or it could have created a new front-runner to hand him a lucrative contract.

Matthew Berry of NBC Sports reported from the combine that he heard the Cardinals could be the front-runner to land the 26-year-old, who spent the last two years with the Green Bay Packers:

"Said one source to me 'Malik Willis to Arizona for $30M – mark it.' We will see if that number ends up being right--I know ESPN's Jeremy Fowler specifically wrote that he sees Willis more in the Justin Fields last year $20M/yr range. So, we will see on the money. But I do think Arizona should be the betting favorite to land Willis. I don't think Minnesota is in play for him nor do I think Miami is a destination for Willis. The Dolphins are just too cash-strapped and won't be able to afford Willis in what should be a robust market for the Green Bay backup."

If it's a short-term deal closer to Fowler's $20 million, that's not a terrible idea—that's just what even average starting quarterbacks cost. But any sort of multi-year deal approaching $30 million a season is a calamity waiting to happen.

Yes, Willis shined in three spot starts for the Packers, but his three starts in Tennessee were a different story. It's just a small sample size, though, and the best we saw from him came with one of the league's more stable franchises.

The odds are good that the Liberty product's next team won't be as stable. The offensive line won't be as good, and neither will the scheme.

And if Willis regresses to the player we saw struggle in Nashville, this could be the biggest boondoggle of free agency in 2026.

RB Kenneth Walker III

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Last week, Seattle general manager John Schneider told reporters that the Seahawks would like to retain the services of Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III.

"We'd love to have Ken back," he said. "He knows this better than anybody: It's about our 70-(man) roster, our collective and what that's going to look like."

However, when the Seahawks declined to place the franchise tag on the 25-year-old, it set the stage for Walker to hit the open market as the No. 1 free agent available at his position.

It's understandable why Walker would be coveted. He went off in the postseason a year ago, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and topping 100 yards on the ground twice, including 135 yards in Seattle's Super Bowl win over New England. He has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards twice in his four-year career.

As with most of the players in this piece, there's a number where signing Walker makes sense—both to the Seahawks and other teams.

However, the more that figure creeps north of $10 million a season, the less sense it makes.

That's featured back money, and while Walker filled that role for Seattle in the playoffs, it was out of necessity. Before Zach Charbonnet got hurt, the duo split carries in the backfield.

Walker has never had 230 carries in a season and has a history of soft-tissue injuries—the 25-year-old has missed time in three of four NFL seasons, including six games in 2024.

There's been nothing to date to indicate Walker is a 350-touch back.

Paying him like a 350-touch workhorse is a risky bet.

WR Jauan Jennings

AP Photo/Scot Tucker

With Daniel Jones receiving the transition tag from the Indianapolis Colts, it looks like wide receiver Alec Pierce will test the open market after leading the league in yards per catch and topping 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Pierce is probably the crown jewel of this year's free-agent crop at wide receiver, but he's not the only wideout some believe will land a big contract in free agency.

In fact, Spotrac projected Jauan Jennings of the San Francisco 49ers will get an even bigger deal in terms of average annual salary: over $22 million a season.

A deal anywhere close to that for the 28-year-old would be a major mistake.

This isn't to say that Jennings isn't talented—he hauled in 77 passes for 975 yards and six touchdowns in 2024 and set a career-high with nine touchdowns in 2025. But he has never posted a 1,000-yard season or averaged 14 yards per reception. He has also missed at least one game in all five of his professional seasons.

Jennings is a good player, but he isn't a great one. He doesn't have great speed. He isn't a big-bodied red-zone target who is going to win a lot of 50/50 balls. He's not a difference-maker. He's certainly not a No. 1 receiver.

Paying north of $20 million a season for a wideout is far from unheard of, but doing so for a mid-tier No. 2 or strong No. 3 option?

There's a reason the 49ers don't appear all that interested in re-signing him.

OT Rasheed Walker

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

There are certain things that happen every year in free agency—and one of them is any halfway-capable offensive tackle who enters the open market hitting the jackpot.

One year ago, Dan Moore Jr. got over $20 million a season from the Tennessee Titans despite allowing a dozen sacks with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024.

Per PFF, Moore allowed eight sacks in his first season with the Titans.

As Tom Pelissero noted for NFL.com, in 2026 it's Rasheed Walker's turn to land a major deal after four seasons with the Green Bay Packers:

"Few seventh-round picks have made a bigger impact at a core position than Walker, who took over the Packers' left tackle job in his second season (2023) and has started 48 of 52 career games. According to Next Gen Stats, Walker has allowed 19.5 sacks since becoming Jordan Love's blind-side protector, which is tied for 12th-most among offensive tackles in that span. But young LTs with this many starts almost never hit the market. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Walker command $20 million or more per year."

At 26, Walker is entering the prime of his career. And by most estimations, he is a better pass-protector than Moore. But Walker has been a liability as a run-blocker to this point in his career, and the reality is that while he may be a good tackle, he isn't a great one.

That won't stop some NFL team from handing him a top-of-the-market deal—and then wondering two years from now why they ever did it.

OG David Edwards

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

It used to be that interior offensive linemen toiled in financial obscurity relative to their counterparts at tackle, but that is no longer the case. Per Spotrac, there are six guards in the NFL currently making at least $20 million a season.

The site projects there could soon be a sixth, forecasting that after three years in Buffalo, guard David Edwards will command a three-year, $59.7 million contract in free agency.

If that projection hits, it would be yet another example of a team desperate for offensive-line help overpaying for a good‑not‑great guard.

Despite allowing just three sacks in over 1,000 snaps last season per Pro Football Focus, Edwards will likely be leaving Buffalo this year—the Bills' precarious salary-cap situation all but precludes them from engaging in a bidding war for guys like Edwards and center Connor McGovern.

That may wind up being a blessing in disguise. Edwards was solid in Buffalo and a bargain on the meager contract he signed after leaving the Los Angeles Rams, but some of his success can be attributed to the overall stoutness of the line in Buffalo. This is a player who was already let go by one team and spent most of his first season with the Bills as a spectator.

He's not the sort of game-changer who is going to turn around an offensive line, and paying capable starters like elite ones is how NFL teams end up with buyer's remorse.

Edge Trey Hendrickson

AP Photo/Kareem Elgazzar

Like offensive tackles, edge-rushers are a premium position in free agency. There are far more teams looking for pass-rush help than there are productive players available—and that serves to drive up the price for the services of high-end free agents.

This year, in terms of productivity, there is no question Trey Hendrickson is the best player available. From 2021-2024, he made four straight Pro Bowls. Over that four-year span with the Cincinnati Bengals, he racked up 57 sacks, including 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024. The latter year, he led the NFL in sacks.

However, things took a nasty turn in 2025. Hendrickson's season started with a contract impasse with the team and ended with surgery to repair a hip injury. In between, he had just four sacks in seven games—his lowest total in that category since 2018. He'll turn 32 during the 2026 season.

That down season isn't going to stop teams from pursuing Hendrickson, as pass-rushers with his resume don't hit the open market all that often. A contract averaging over $25 million a season is closer to the beginning of negotiations with him than the end.

And that's a pattern that we have seen before.

Yes, there have been aging edge-rushers who have peeled off one last big season with a new team a la Khalil Mack in 2023. But for every one of those, there has been a high-priced player who was unable to recapture past glories.

Making a multi-year commitment to Hendrickson is unlikely to end well.

LB Devin Lloyd

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

The Jacksonville Jaguars had their best regular season in years in 2025, winning 13 games. Linebacker Devin Lloyd played a significant role in that success—he was third on the team in tackles and tied for the team lead with five interceptions.

The 2022 first-rounder's coverage numbers were excellent: He gave up just one score in coverage and had a passer rating against of just 57.1.

Now, Lloyd is set to cash in. Spotrac set his market value at over $20 million a season—an average annual salary that just two off-ball linebackers (Fred Warner of the San Francisco 49ers and Roquan Smith of the Baltimore Ravens) can currently boast.

Giving Lloyd that kind of money (or anything close to it) would be a major gaffe.

As ESPN's Bill Barnwell wrote, there's a reason why the Utah product won't be playing this year on a fifth-year option:

"Lloyd will be a difficult evaluation for some teams. In 2024, Lloyd struggled so badly that the Jaguars really should have considered benching their 2022 first-round pick. There wasn't a great effort level from him on tape, and he looked like he wasn't up to the standards of being a starting-caliber linebacker. It was easy for the new Jags regime to decline his fifth-year option."

Yes, Lloyd rebounded in a contract year, but even then he was a liability against the run—per Barnwell, he took longer to make tackles on run plays (5.1 seconds) than any regular off-ball linebacker in the league.

That's not getting it done.

CB Jamel Dean

AP Photo/Ella Hall

It's not a great year to be an NFL team in need of help at the cornerback position.

This year's draft class isn't especially imposing, and neither is the group of available free agents. But cornerback is a premium position, and the number of teams annually looking to upgrade in the secondary usually numbers about 32.

That could lead to another common mistake made by NFL general managers in free agency—overpaying the "top" player available at the position.

Among cornerbacks this year, Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com believes that is Jamel Dean, who has spent his entire seven-year career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

"By pure statistical profile (success rate, quarterback rating and EPA per target), Dean was one of the best cornerbacks in football last year," he wrote. "His roller-coaster career and tendency to leave games with injury dims his value, but not below what Carlton Davis received a year ago."

Davis got $20 million a season. That's too much for Dean.

Dean is an experienced player with 77 career starts, and his coverage numbers last year were solid—a completion percentage against less than 50 and a passer rating against of 63.1—the second-best mark of his career.

However, there's an old saying that the best ability is availability, and that has been a career-long issue for the 29-year-old, who has missed multiple games every year he has been in the NFL.

There are eight cornerbacks who currently clear $20 million a season.

Dean just isn't a top-10 corner. Paying him like one will get the word "bust" thrown around sooner rather than later.