Joe Lunardi Bracketology 2026 Seeds, Bubble Teams After Purdue vs Ohio State, MSU vs. Indiana

Upsetting Purdue on Sunday could prove to be a pivotal result toward shaping Ohio State's NCAA tournament fate.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi provided his updated Bracketology as the 2025-26 regular season heads into its final week. Fresh off their 82-74 victory on Sunday, the Buckeyes are now one of his Last Four In. They had been in the First Four Out the last time around.

Santa Clara, New Mexico and Indiana are the other three Last Four In, retaining the spots they had a week ago.

Auburn, on the other hand, is heading in the wrong direction at the worst time.

The Tigers have been in a tailspin. They've dropped seven of their last eight, most recently losing 85-79 at home to Ole Miss. A national semifinalist a season ago, the team is at risk of finishing below .500.

Lunardi has Auburn missing the Big Dance, which would be a disappointing outcome for Steven Pearl's first year at the helm.

Joining Auburn as the Last Four Out are San Diego State, VCU and Virginia Tech.

The Hokies at least improved their odds a bit, climbing out of the Next Four Out category after beating Wake Forest 82-63. An 89-82 loss to North Carolina didn't dent their resume too much.

The top of Lunardi's projected bracket isn't any different. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and UConn are the four highest overall seeds in that order.

Michigan State did make a pretty sizable jump. The Spartans were a No. 4 seed last week and now occupy a No. 2 seed (seventh overall) after victories over Purdue and Indiana.

The Boilermakers have lost ground, falling from eighth overall to 10th in Lunardi's view.

The Big Ten will be happy with Lunardi's projection. The conference has five of the top 12 teams.