Each MLB Team's Biggest X-Factor For 2026 Season
There are Major League Baseball players who we expect to be stars in 2026, and then there are X-factors who might become stars.
It's the latter subset that tends to make or break a team's season.
This begs the question: Who/what is each team's biggest X-factor?
For the most part, we've identified a singular player like Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs or Carson Benge of the New York Mets who could be the missing link in a World Series chain. But in several cases, it'll be a specific position (like Boston's third base situation) or a couple of players (like Cincinnati's Chase Burns and Chase Petty) who loom large.
Teams are broken up by division and sorted alphabetically within each division.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Ryan Helsley
From the beginning of 2022 through the 2025 trade deadline, Ryan Helsley was one of the best relievers out there. We're talking a 2.03 ERA, 103 saves, and tied for the second-best fWAR behind only Emmanuel Clase. But for two months with the Mets, he was a disaster, blowing four saves, posting a 7.20 ERA, and contributing to New York's collapse. Can he bounce back? Or is this going to be Craig Kimbrel 2.0 for the O's?
Boston Red Sox: 3B Caleb Durbin
Second base is also a sizable question mark, but Boston has options there. It could be Marcelo Mayer. It might be Kristian Campbell. If both flounder, they could even bring Ceddanne Rafaela in from center and make more room for their four-man outfield. But if Durbin struggles at the hot corner after Boston lost Alex Bregman and whiffed on (or didn't even swing at) the many options in free agency, fingers crossed on Nate Eaton or Isiah Kiner-Falefa? Third base may well be their Achilles' heel.
New York Yankees: General Health
Gerrit Cole won't be back from Tommy John surgery until probably Memorial Day. Clarke Schmidt had TJ in July and could miss the entire season. Carlos Rodón is recovering from bone spur surgery and won't be ready for Opening Day. And that's just the pitchers. Anthony Volpe is recovering from labrum surgery and is expected to miss all of April. Giancarlo Stanton can't open a bag of chips or a bottle of pills due to elbow pain, but is trying to play through it. And let's just say Atlanta found out the hard way last season how quickly things can unravel when you enter the season with hopes of getting to full strength somewhere around Game 40.
Tampa Bay Rays: LHP Shane McClanahan
The two-time All-Star and former ace of this staff hasn't pitched in the big leagues since August 2, 2023. But the hope is that he'll be good to go for the start of the season. (Though Drew Rasmussen will probably be the Opening Day starter.) If McClanahan is back and pitching at anything close to his pre-injuries level of dominance, the Rays just might be a factor in this murderer's row of a division—especially if top prospect SS Carson Williams lives up to the hype as a possible 30/30 rookie.
Toronto Blue Jays: 3B Kazuma Okamoto
Okamoto wasn't even the most highly touted third baseman coming over from Japan this winter, but he is the clear Plan A at the hot corner for the reigning ALCS champs. If he struggles to adjust to MLB pitching, though, how long of a leash will the Blue Jays have? Because while Addison Barger is penciled in at RF and Ernie Clement at 2B, those guys pretty much 50/50 split the third-base job in 2025. And they have no shortage of outfield options, should they feel the need to bring Barger back to the infield.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: The Youth Movement
To put it gently, the White Sox probably aren't going to contend this season. With minimal expiring assets, though, they aren't an intriguing trade deadline seller, either. But at some point, there's going to be a game where both Andrew Benintendi and Austin Hays get the night off, and Chicago may have an entire starting nine that was born after Y2K. Can the likes of Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth, and Colson Montgomery at least give this team a lineup that stokes excitement for the future?
Cleveland Guardians: 2B Travis Bazzana
The Guardians are expected to start rookies Chase DeLauter and George Valera in the outfield on Opening Day, but could 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana join the party, too? He missed a big chunk of last season with an oblique injury, or else he might have already made his MLB debut. Even if he doesn't break camp with the Guards, after a 2025 campaign in which they got roughly a .650 OPS out of their middle infield, it might not be long before he gets the call.
Detroit Tigers: SS Kevin McGonigle
Speaking of top prospects, when does this one arrive? McGonigle's rise through the minors has also been stunted by injury. He suffered a broken hamate in late 2024, and an ankle injury in his 2025 season opener knocked him out of commission for more than a month. Yet, he is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and Detroit doesn't exactly have a sure thing locked in at shortstop, especially with Trey Sweeney already sidelined by a shoulder injury. For a team that is clearly all-in on winning in 2026, could McGonigle make the roster out of spring training?
Kansas City Royals: RF Jac Caglianone
Kansas City called up its 2024 first-round pick in early June, hoping he could provide a spark to a hapless offense. But in 62 games played, Caglianone posted a .532 OPS that ranked darn near dead last in the majors among players with at least 200 plate appearances. Even if he's just OK this season, that's a plus for the Royals. But if he blossoms into the slugger who had a 1.025 OPS in 66 minor-league games played last season—While Cole Ragans stays healthy, too?—The Royals could make a serious leap and win the AL Central for just the second time in more than three decades.
Minnesota Twins: 3B Royce Lewis
For years after being taken No. 1 overall in 2017, Lewis was an X-factor because he couldn't stay healthy. But while the frequent injuries remain a major variable, Lewis hasn't been anything special when healthy over the past two seasons, posting a .235/.288/.416 triple-slash in 188 games played. Can he play more than half a season? And can he do so with anything close to the .921 OPS he had in 2023? If not, another summer fire sale is all but inevitable.
American League West
3 of 6
Athletics: RHP Aaron Civale
One needn't squint much to see a top 10 offense in West Sacramento. Unfortunately, that's also true of a bottom-five pitching staff, as the A's are largely running it back again with the same guys who gave up 817 runs last season. One key addition, though, is Civale, who has been hit-or-miss throughout a seven-year career with a 4.14 ERA. If he can be a respectable No. 3 starter, they'll have a chance to contend.
Houston Astros: RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
After missing all of 2023 and 2024, McCullers logged 55.1 innings pitched with a 6.51 ERA in 2025. But with Framber Valdez and Ryan Gusto out of the picture, while Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter might all miss the entire campaign, Houston pretty well needs McCullers to pitch more and better in 2026. Can he right the ship?
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Big run on mid-rotation, right-handed starting pitchers here, but G-Rod might be the biggest X-factor of them all. The Angels gave up their final season of team control on slugging outfielder Taylor Ward to acquire four years of the oft-injured Rodriguez without even administering a physical as part of the deal. It could be quite the coup if he bounces back from missing all of 2025 and becomes a staple for the Halos. Or it could be the reason they post an 11th consecutive losing season.
Seattle Mariners: Second Base
Seattle has one of the better five-man starting rotations heading into 2026, as well as a mostly stout lineup. But 2B or not 2B? That is the question the Mariners are trying to answer this spring, with Cole Young, Leo Rivas, Ryan Bliss, and perhaps even Michael Arroyo in the mix for the starting gig—not to mention the possibility of Colt Emerson becoming Option A at third base and bumping newest Mariner Brendan Donovan to second base. Do they settle on a regular, or will this spot be a revolving door for six months?
Texas Rangers: DH/1B Joc Pederson
Last year was a nightmare for Pederson, including a broken hand that put him on the IL for more than two months. But about a week after he made it back, he did turn a corner, posting a .780 OPS over his final 43 games, compared to a .473 mark through his first 53 contests. Could he be even better in 2026, getting back to what he was in 2024? And as a secondary X-factor, could he be in the mix to start at first base if Jake Burger struggles? He has gotten some reps there already this spring.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: LHP Reynaldo López
Of all the things that went sideways for Atlanta in 2025, getting just one appearance out of López—after he logged 135.2 IP with a 1.99 ERA in 2024—was probably the most detrimental to their cause. And with AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Hurston Waldrep all recovering from elbow surgeries and not expected to be available until at least June, the Braves are going to need López in a big way, at least through the first half.
Miami Marlins: OF Owen Caissie
The Marlins gave up their final three years of team control on their best pitcher from last season, Edward Cabrera, to acquire the highly touted Caissie from the Cubs. If he messes around and gets into the mix for NL Rookie of the Year—while both Jakob Marsee and Heriberto Hernández build on their strong second halves as rookies in 2025—Miami could be sneaky good.
New York Mets: OF Carson Benge
Realistically, the Mets shouldn't need much out of Benge, who will probably be batting out of the 9-hole as the starting right fielder on Opening Day. But he is at least symbolically New York's biggest X-factor after they traded away both Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil to embrace a "Ready or Not" situation for their top prospect. Benge could be the final piece of their World Series puzzle. But if the Mets underachieve and he's nothing special in his first season in the bigs, oh, that is going to become a narrative and a half.
Philadelphia Phillies: OF Justin Crawford
Like the Mets with Benge, the Phillies are probably going to be handing a starting outfielder job to a prospect who has yet to make his MLB debut. Crawford has hit .326 and stolen 135 bases over the past three seasons in the minors, and the Phillies will be in business if he is immediately "Juan Pierre with some pop." But if he struggles and it's up to Brandon Marsh, Adolis García, and, I suppose, Otto Kemp (with Johan Rojas suspended) to carry this offense? Insert "Michael Scott's brave face grimace" gif here.
Washington Nationals: RHP Josiah Gray
Gray last pitched in the majors nearly two calendar years ago, suffering a season-ending UCL injury in April 2024 and subsequently missing all of 2025. But he was the ace of this staff in 2023, and they need him to be that guy again if the Nationals are going to amount to anything in 2026. Because if it is yet another "rebuilding year," the James Wood trade speculation will start buzzing even louder than the Paul Skenes chatter around Pittsburgh last year.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: UTIL Matt Shaw
Shaw almost exclusively played third base while placing ninth in the NL ROY vote last season, save for six innings at second base. But that's Alex Bregman's spot now. Thus, within the first week of spring training, Shaw had already made starts at second base, at third base and in right field as the Cubs prepare him for at least one season as a super-utilityman. Not everyone is cut out for that life of constant uncertainty, though, so how will he adapt to it? And if he does become the primary right fielder, thus bumping Seiya Suzuki back to primary DH, where does that leave Moises Ballesteros in the mix?
Cincinnati Reds: Chase & Chase
RHP Chase Petty had a brutal first taste of the majors last season, allowing 13 earned runs in six innings of work. RHP Chase Burns was a bit more successful with a 4.57 ERA in 43.1 innings pitched. But both are tantalizing prospects, entering their age-23 seasons and basically battling each other (and Rhett Lowder) for the fifth spot in Cincinnati's rotation. Even the ones who draw the short straws could feature prominently at times, as Reds starters always seem to be banged up, searching for their first 170-inning pitcher since 2021. (Case in point: Hunter Greene is already questionable with an elbow injury.)
Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Luis Rengifo
The Brewers traded away Caleb Durbin in early February before scooping up Rengifo about a week later. Is he just a placeholder until 22-year-old Jett Williams—who they got along with RHP Brandon Sproat in the Freddy Peralta blockbuster—is ready for regular big-league work? Or are they hoping he'll rally from a down year in 2025 and hold down the fort at the hot corner for the entire season? Maybe he'll become the unlikely key cog that Andrew Vaughn was for Milwaukee last year.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Konnor Griffin
Is the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball going to make his MLB debut on Opening Day as a teenager? Or are the Pirates going to slow play this potential superstar and maybe call him up in mid-May if he forces their hand by being too dominant in the minors, just like Paul Skenes two years ago? Given all the additions they made this winter, you have to like Griffin's chances of securing the shortstop job. They're clearly more invested in winning right now than they have been in at least a decade.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Dustin May
With a win total line of 69.5, it's tough to envision a scenario in which May pitches well enough to turn this rebuilding team into a contender—but pitching well enough to turn into one of the top arms on the trade block, netting the Cardinals a nice prospect or two? That could definitely happen if he can get back to anything resembling the guy who had a 3.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP from 2019-23—albeit in only 191.2 IP, because he has never been able to stay healthy.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Jordan Lawlar
Is this the year the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft breaks through? It's realistic after entering each of the past four seasons as a top 30 overall prospect, per Baseball America and MLB.com's pipeline, while transitioning to the outfield after exclusively playing in the infield over the past five years. It would be huge for the Diamondbacks, who presently have Corbin Carroll (recovering from a broken hamate, no less) and two big question marks in the outfield.
Colorado Rockies: New Starting Pitchers
Listen, no one expects the collection of Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano to suddenly pull the Rockies out of the bottomless pit into which they've buried themselves. For the first time in a long time, though, they managed to sign a free agent pitcher (three of them) with a tangible pulse. And if any of those veterans can somewhat revive their career while making home starts at Coors Field, maybe others will begin to consider it, too.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Edwin Díaz
Despite spending $16M more on relievers than any other team, the Dodgers' bullpen seemed to be just plain cursed last season, to the point where they brought Roki Sasaki back in late September as a reliever, desperate to find anything that might work. But if new closer Edwin Díaz pitches as well as he did last year with the Mets, it's hard to find a thermal exhaust port on this Death Star.
San Diego Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove
Though not nearly the multi-year comeback effort that previously mentioned Shane McClanahan and Josiah Gray are hoping to pull off, Musgrove did miss the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery. But the Padres need him back as the 3.20 ERA pitcher he was for them from 2021-24. Because if he's not that guy again, this rotation gets mighty questionable in a hurry beyond Michael King and Nick Pivetta.
San Francisco Giants: RHP Adrian Houser
Houser had a 2.10 ERA in 68.2 innings pitched for the Chicago White Sox last season. But he was only with the White Sox on basically a league-minimum salary after signing minor-league deals with the Cubs, Rangers, and Orioles after posting a 4.76 ERA from 2022-24 with the Brewers and Mets. And he reverted to a 4.79 ERA in 10 starts with the Rays after the trade deadline. That's a lot of evidence to suggest he's not going to be for the Giants what he was for the White Sox, but can he at least be a serviceable No. 4 starter?
