Buy or Sell Shohei Ohtani and Every MLB Team's Projected Home Run Leader for 2026
For the first time since 2001, four different players hit 50 home runs in the same season, with Cal Raleigh (60), Kyle Schwarber (56), Shohei Ohtani (55) and Aaron Judge (53) all reaching that mark in 2025.
All four are easy picks to lead their respective clubs in long balls once again during the upcoming season, but not every team has such a clear-cut top dog as far as over-the-fence production.
With that in mind, let's cue up a round of "buy or sell" for each team's projected home run leader, courtesy of the ZiPS DC projections at FanGraphs.
Supporting details were provided in a buy case, and an alternative leader was proposed in a sell case.
Let the prognostication begin!
AL East
1 of 6
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Projected Leader: 1B Pete Alonso
Projected HR Total: 39
Buy or Sell: Buy
Pete Alonso has never hit fewer than 34 home runs in a full big league season, and the Orioles gave him a five-year, $155 million deal to keep doing exactly that in the middle of their lineup. No one hit more than 17 homers for a disappointing Orioles squad last year, though fellow newcomer Taylor Ward (36 HR in 2025) also has big power.
BOSTON RED SOX
Projected Leader: 1B Willson Contreras/SS Trevor Story
Projected HR Total: 22
Buy or Sell: Sell—OF Roman Anthony (19 HR projection)
Trevor Story enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2025 to lead the Red Sox with 25 home runs, and he is certainly a contender to lead the club again. However, despite hitting just eight long balls in 303 plate appearances as a rookie, rising superstar Roman Anthony is more than capable of a massive step forward to a 30-homer campaign.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Projected Leader: OF Aaron Judge
Projected HR Total: 43
Buy or Sell: Buy
As long as he stays healthy, Aaron Judge is going to lead the Yankees in home runs. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton are all capable of 30-homer output, but Judge is operating on another level entirely as he searches for his fourth 50-homer season in the last five years.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Projected Leader: 3B Junior Caminero
Projected HR Total: 38
Buy or Sell: Buy
Even with significant regression from his 45-homer explosion last year, Junior Caminero is still the clear front-runner to pace the Rays, especially after Brandon Lowe (31 HR in 2025) was traded to the Pirates. First baseman Jonathan Aranda (22 HR projection) is the only other player on the roster projected to break 20 homers.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Projected Leader: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Projected HR Total: 33
Buy or Sell: Buy
After hitting .397/.494/.795 with eight home runs in 18 games during the playoffs, it feels like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is poised to reach new levels of stardom in 2026. Don't sleep on Daulton Varsho (20 HR in 71 games) and newcomer Kazuma Okamoto had a 41-homer peak for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, but the smart money is still on Vladdy.
AL Central
2 of 6
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Projected Leader: 1B Munetaka Murakami
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Sell—Colson Montgomery (26 HR projection)
The swing-and-miss concerns are real with Japanese League star Munetaka Murakami, but so is the power, and a 30-homer debut is not out of the question. That said, only Kyle Schwarber (26), Shohei Ohtani (23), Cal Raleigh (22) and Junior Caminero (22) had more home runs during the second half last season than the 21 slugged by rookie Colson Montgomery.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Projected Leader: 3B José Ramírez
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Buy
While there was a 5.4-WAR gap in their overall value, Kyle Manzardo only hit three fewer home runs than José Ramírez did last year with a 27-homer, 70-RBI campaign, so he's worth keeping an eye on. However, J-Ram has led the Guardians in home runs six years in a row, so betting against him doing it again seems unwise.
DETROIT TIGERS
Projected Leader: 1B Spencer Torkelson
Projected HR Total: 31
Buy or Sell: Sell—Kerry Carpenter (25 HR projection)
Consider the following context for the Tigers home run leaders a year ago:
Riley Greene: 655 PA, 36 HR, 18.2 PA per HR
Spencer Torkelson: 649 PA, 31 HR, 20.9 PA per HR
Kerry Carpenter: 464 PA, 26 HR, 17.8 PA per HR
With a bit more exposure to left-handed pitching (only 63 PA) and a clean bill of health (missed 22 games with hamstring strain), Carpenter is more than capable of pacing the club in homers in 2026.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Projected Leader: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Sell—Vinnie Pasquantino (27 HR projection)
There is no question Bobby Witt Jr. is the face of the franchise and the best all-around player on the Royals roster, but he is not a slam dunk for a 30-homer season, evidenced by his 23 long balls that trailed Vinnie Pasquantino (32) and Salvador Perez (30) in 2025. "Pasquatch" was especially good during the second half, logging an .845 OPS with 17 home runs in 64 games.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Projected Leader: OF Byron Buxton
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Sell—Matt Wallner (22 HR projection)
With a strong 6'4", 220-pound frame and elite bat speed that ranked in the 96th percentile last season, Matt Wallner is a 30-homer season waiting to happen, and he has actually averaged 30 home runs per 162 games across his four seasons in the big leagues. Last year was the first time Byron Buxton topped 110 games played since 2017, so while he has top-tier power, health remains an ongoing question mark.
AL West
3 of 6
ATHLETICS
Projected Leader: DH Brent Rooker
Projected HR Total: 36
Buy or Sell: Sell—Nick Kurtz (33 HR projection)
It took just 117 games for Nick Kurtz to launch 36 home runs en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors last season, and with elite batted-ball metrics across the board, that dizzying pace could be sustainable across a full 162-game slate. Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker also reached 30 homers in 2025, so expect a compelling in-house leaderboard.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Projected Leader: DH Yordan Alvarez
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Buy
After four straight 30-homer seasons to firmly establish himself as one of baseball's elite offensive players, Yordan Alvarez played just 48 games last season while navigating a fractured hand and a sprained ankle. The 28-year-old is now "100 percent" entering spring training and the clear top power threat on the Houston roster, especially with playing time up in the air for 2025 All-Star Isaac Paredes.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Projected Leader: OF Jo Adell
Projected HR Total: 31
Buy or Sell: Buy
Despite his poor batting average and middling defense, the Angels gave Jo Adell a full runway to prove himself last season. The 26-year-old responded by finishing fourth on the AL leaderboard with a career-high 37 home runs, and while a potential Mike Trout resurgence looms, Adell now stands as a top-tier power threat.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Projected Leader: C Cal Raleigh
Projected HR Total: 42
Buy or Sell: Buy
Including playoff numbers, no player in baseball had a bigger gap between his actual home run total (65) and expected home run total (56.1) last season than Cal Raleigh. He still has a sizable cushion to Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor and any other challengers even with modest regression, and he turned in back-to-back 30-homer seasons prior to last year's offensive explosion.
TEXAS RANGERS
Projected Leader: 1B Jake Burger/OF Wyatt Langford
Projected HR Total: 25
Buy or Sell: Sell—Corey Seager (24 HR projection)
Wyatt Langford has still not fully realized his vast offensive potential and Jake Burger has a 34-homer season on his resume, but Corey Seager is still the safest bet to pace the Rangers in home runs. His 21 homers last season were just one behind Langford for the team lead, and he reached that total in just 102 games. Even if he spends time on the injured list again, Seager is capable of slugging 30-plus home runs in an abridged campaign.
NL East
4 of 6
ATLANTA BRAVES
Projected Leader: OF Ronald Acuña Jr.
Projected HR Total: 33
Buy or Sell: Buy
The first time he suffered a torn ACL back in 2021, Ronald Acuña Jr. returned with 15 home runs in 119 games the following year before exploding for a 41-homer, MVP-winning performance. Still only 28 years old, he is now similarly removed from his second torn ACL suffered on May 26, 2024, and a return to superstardom could await this season.
MIAMI MARLINS
Projected Leader: OF Kyle Stowers
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Buy
Kyle Stowers had a .911 OPS with 19 home runs during the first half last season to earn his first All-Star selection, and while injuries slowed him after the break, he didn't regress when healthy with a .917 OPS in 26 games. Agustín Ramírez also has 30-homer power, but a more well-rounded offensive game gives Stowers the superior 2026 outlook.
NEW YORK METS
Projected Leader: OF Juan Soto
Projected HR Total: 38
Buy or Sell: Buy
Despite a slow start to his first season in a Mets uniform, Juan Soto still finished with a career-high 43 home runs to finish third in the NL home run race behind Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani. Now that slugger Pete Alonso is playing elsewhere, he might be the safest bet on this entire list to pace his team in long balls.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Projected Leader: DH Kyle Schwarber
Projected HR Total: 44
Buy or Sell: Buy
The 187 home runs that Kyle Schwarber has hit over the past four years are matched by Shohei Ohtani and only exceeded by Aaron Judge (210), and he is coming off a career-high 56 home runs. First baseman Bryce Harper has reached 30 home runs just once over the last four seasons, giving Schwarber a comfortable cushion.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Projected Leader: OF James Wood
Projected HR Total: 26
Buy or Sell: Buy
With a towering 6'7", 234-pound frame and elite batted-ball metrics that include a top-tier average exit velocity (98th percentile), James Wood is one of the game's most prolific young sluggers. Shortstop CJ Abrams was second on the team among returning players with 19 home runs, so he should cruise to the team lead.
NL Central
5 of 6
CHICAGO CUBS
Projected Leader: 1B Michael Busch
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Sell—Seiya Suzuki (27 HR projection)
Seiya Suzuki hit a career-high 32 home runs last season, but 25 of them came before the All-Star break, so there's extra in the tank with a more complete season. The 31-year-old is also entering a contract year and looking to solidify his status as an elite offensive player, while Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong are still settling in as big league regulars.
CINCINNATI REDS
Projected Leader: DH Eugenio Suárez
Projected HR Total: 35
Buy or Sell: Buy
The Reds two biggest home run threats both put up huge first-half numbers and slumped after the break:
Eugenio Suárez (1st half): 95 G, .889 OPS, 31 HR
Eugenio Suárez (2nd half): 64 G, .729 OPS, 18 HR
Elly De La Cruz (1st half): 97 G, .854 OPS, 18 HR
Elly De La Cruz (2nd half): 65 G, .666 OPS, 4 HR
Suárez still has plenty left in the tank, and a return to Great American Ball Park for his home games will also provide a boost.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Projected Leader: OF Jackson Chourio
Projected HR Total: 23
Buy or Sell: Buy
Jackson Chourio is still only 21 years old and coming off back-to-back 21-homer seasons, so a steady uptick in power production seems likely in the coming years. Meanwhile, the team's only other 20-homer player from a year ago was Christian Yelich (29), and there are notable regression red flags in his batted-ball profile.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Projected Leader: DH Marcell Ozuna
Projected HR Total: 23
Buy or Sell: Sell—Brandon Lowe (21 HR projection)
The Pirates ranked last in the majors with 117 home runs in 162 games last season, and they set about rectifying that with a busy offseason headlined by the additions of Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O'Hearn. After launching 31 home runs last year to earn his second All-Star selection, Lowe is the best bet to sit atop the Pittsburgh leaderboard.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Projected Leader: 3B Nolan Gorman
Projected HR Total: 24
Buy or Sell: Sell—Iván Herrera (18 HR projection)
No one on the Cardinals projected 2026 roster hit 20 home runs last season, which makes this one of the most wide-open races in baseball. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker both have untapped power potential, but Iván Herrera has momentum on his side after he slugged 11 homers in 64 games after the All-Star break.
NL West
6 of 6
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Projected Leader: 2B Ketel Marte
Projected HR Total: 27
Buy or Sell: Buy
Hamate injuries often sap a player of their power production immediately following recovery, and that's reason enough to nudge Ketel Marte ahead of Corbin Carroll on the D-backs projection board after Carroll underwent hamate surgery on Feb. 11. With Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor both gone, it's a two-horse race in the desert.
COLORADO ROCKIES
Projected Leader: C Hunter Goodman
Projected HR Total: 28
Buy or Sell: Buy
Strong batted-ball metrics are reason enough to believe the 31-homer, Silver Slugger performance that Hunter Goodman turned in last year is more than just a one-year mirage. Mickey Moniak was the only other Rockies player to top 20 homers in 2025, and he looks like a more likely regression candidate due to his chase rate.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Projected Leader: DH Shohei Ohtani
Projected HR Total: 51
Buy or Sell: Buy
Given the star-studded nature of the Dodgers roster, it's somewhat surprising that Shohei Ohtani was the team's only 30-homer slugger last season. Picking anyone else to be the club's home leader would be irresponsible at this point, as the four-time MVP has established himself as baseball's gold standard for power hitting alongside Aaron Judge.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Projected Leader: OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
Projected HR Total: 27
Buy or Sell: Buy
Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill are all capable of pacing the Padres in long balls, so this one really is a coin toss. With elite batted-ball metrics, a slight launch angle tweak under new hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. might be all it takes for Tatis to return to his previous 40-homer form.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Projected Leader: 1B Rafael Devers
Projected HR Total: 31
Buy or Sell: Buy
Rafael Devers hit 20 home runs in just 90 games after he was traded to the Giants last season, and that included an .825 OPS with 11 long balls at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. The 29-year-old is the best pure power hitter the Giants have had since Barry Bonds.
