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Bold NBA Predictions After the 2026 Trade Deadline
The 2026 NBA trade deadline is finally over following a record-setting 28 total deals involving 73 players.
Who said the new apron rules would kill player movement?
Now with the focus solely on the on-court play, we've got a fun playoff race coming up.
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo staying with the Milwaukee Bucks equal a playoff run, or are we seeing the last of the two-time MVP with the only franchise he's ever known? Can anyone catch the Oklahoma City Thunder at the top of the West standings? Which surprise star in the East will make a late-season MVP push?
It's time to make some bold predictions, post trade deadline edition.
San Antonio Spurs Will Steal No. 1 Seed from Oklahoma City Thunder In West
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The last time the Oklahoma City Thunder didn't finish with the best record in the West was 2022-23, before Victor Wembanyama was even drafted.
Now, Wembanyama's San Antonio Spurs will change that.
Currently 3.5 games back of OKC in the West standings, the Spurs chose to keep this core together at the trade deadline and will be relying on the continued chemistry between Wembanyama, De'Aron Fox, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle, who just recorded a monster 40-point triple-double.
The Spurs' top-seven most used lineups this season all have a net rating of at least plus-5.1, a rarity even with the most successful of teams.
The hot play of the Spurs will be coupled with some injury concerns for the Thunder, headlined by superstar and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The NBA's second-leading scorer, Gilgeous-Alexander is out until after the All-Star break while dealing with an abdominal strain. The Thunder are 2-2 this season without their point guard and 38-11 with him. Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (abdominal strain) are currently sidelined as well.
The Spurs are young, hungry and eager to prove they belong in the playoffs. The Thunder are coming off a title and won't take the remainder of the regular season quite so seriously, using extra caution with their banged-up stars.
San Antonio will finish with the No. 1 seed in the West, adding more fuel to the NBA's hottest young rivalry.
LeBron James Plays His Last Games as a Laker...But Doesn't Retire
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LeBron James made it past the trade deadline with the Los Angeles Lakers, although this speaks more to the difficulty of finding a deal that the four-time MVP would have approved of more so than the two sides actually wanting to stay together.
After eight seasons, James will leave the Lakers as a free agent.
This won't be the free agent spectacle of 2010 or 2024 (or even 2018), but James' next location will still attract a lot of buzz.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors are all mentioned as plausible destinations per ESPN's Dave McMenamin, someone who's covered James for over a decade in Cleveland and Los Angeles.
All three are already projected to be over the salary cap or into the second apron next season, meaning James isn't going to get another max deal without some serious salary dumping.
Will James be willing to play for a $15 million mid-level deal? What about a veteran's minimum should he want to play for a Cavs team that could be paying $142 million to Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and James Harden alone?
If this was going to be James' final season in the NBA, he would have announced it already and enjoyed his own personal goodbye tour.
James will return to the league for season No. 24, just not in purple and gold.
Golden State Warriors Miss the Playoffs, Charlotte Hornets Make Them
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Stephen Curry may not be in the playoffs this spring, but at least his dad will be calling games.
The Golden State Warriors will be the surprise team to miss the postseason, while the Charlotte Hornets will ride a recent surge and the trade for Coby White to make them.
The Warriors were an ideal landing spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo, especially if they could have used Jimmy Butler's contract to help match salaries. Butler is out for the season with a torn ACL and Golden State has been lifeless (5-10 overall) without him this year.
The Warriors' big trade deadline acquisition, Kristaps Porziņģis, is a theoretical fit, yet the 30-year-old big man hasn't played in a month and has only suited up four times since Dec. 5. Relying on Porziņģis to help carry this team into the playoffs is foolish, and giving up Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield to acquire him will prove to be a mistake.
On the flip side, a nine-game win streak has the Hornets back in the East play-in picture where they should feel good about their playoff chances.
Two of the teams in the play-in picture, the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat, either got worse (trading away Tyus Jones to avoid the luxury tax) or did nothing at the deadline at all. The Atlanta Hawks are still finding their identity after trading away Trae Young last month.
The Hornets have the best record in the NBA over the last 15 games (12-3), just acquired Coby White to be their next sixth man and have arguably the NBA's best rookie in Kon Knueppel.
Charlotte will stay in the play-in tournament and ultimately play their way into the East playoffs for the first time in a decade.
Cade Cunningham Crashes the MVP Party
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Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have combined to win four of the last five MVP awards and are the betting favorites to finish in the first and second again this year, with Gilgeous-Alexander possessing a small lead at the moment.
It's time for Cade Cunningham to crash this party.
The Detroit Pistons' point guard is averaging 25.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 9.1 assists (most in the NBA), 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks a game while leading his team to first place in the East at 38-13. Cunningham's offensive responsibility is only going to increase now that Jaden Ivey (20.2 percent usage rate) was traded to the Chicago Bulls.
It's hard to see anyone catching the Pistons in the East, as a five-game lead over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics has given them a nice cushion.
Nikola Jokić can only miss one more game the entire season to still be eligible for postseason awards after previously sitting out 16 straight with a knee injury. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently out with an abdominal strain, and we could see the Oklahoma City Thunder prioritizing his health over the stretch run vs. chasing individual numbers over long minutes.
Voters love a good storyline, and Cunningham being a No. 1 overall pick by the Pistons and potentially leading Detroit to the NBA's best record just two years removed from having the worst (14-68) is some fairy tale writing indeed.
Don't be surprised if Cunningham wins his first MVP, something no other Piston in franchise history has accomplished.
The Giannis Antetokounmpo Era in Milwaukee Finally Ends
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The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade really looked like it was going to happen.
The Milwaukee Bucks are lottery-bound in a year where they actually have their first-round pick. Antetokounmpo has done everything in his power (when healthy) to lead this team, although there's simply a lack of star power around him to make any sort of championship push.
Both Antetokounmpo and the Bucks don't want to be the bad guy here, and neither has to be. This relationship has simply run its course.
It seems inevitable this season ends with Milwaukee missing the playoffs. A 23rd-ranked net rating (minus-3.7) thus far is evidence of that, especially with Antetokounmpo currently sidelined with a calf injury.
This summer we're going to do the same old dance again. Only this time, the two-time MVP will accept that if he truly wants to compete for a championship again, he'll need a change of scenery.
Arguably the best player in franchise history, Antetokounmpo will play his final games with the Bucks this season.
