Super Bowl 2026 MVP Favorites and Predictions for Patriots vs. Seahawks

Super Bowl LX may not be bringing a matchup that many fans expected, but it promises to be a game filled with intriguing storylines.

New England Patriots standout Drake Maye, for example, is set to be the second-youngest quarterback to ever start in the Super Bowl, behind only Dan Marino. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, meanwhile, will be the first signal-caller from a loaded 2018 class to appear in the NFL title game.

Unsurprisingly, both Maye and Darnold are among the early favorites for Super Bowl MVP. Who else looms as likely MVP candidates? Let's examine the odds, run down the list, and make a few predictions.

Super Bowl LX

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Levi's Stadium, site of Super Bowl LX

Date: Sunday, February 8

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Location: Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA

TV and Live Stream: NBC and Peacock

Line: SEA -4.5

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Moneyline: SEA -225 (bet $225 to win $100), NE +195 (bet $100 to win $195)

Seahawks MVP Favorites

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold +127

The Seahawks are favored, which shouldn't be surprising, given their balanced offense and elite defense. This makes Darnold the "safe" MVP pick, even if the odds aren't altogether enticing.

The quarterback of the winning team often gets the MVP, even if his statistics are pedestrian. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts won last year's MVP, even though the Eagles' defense controlled the game.

If Seattle wins and Darnold plays mistake-free football, there's a good chance he'll be the MVP.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +524

There is a scenario in which the Seahawks win, Darnold has a big game, and he doesn't win the MVP. If a large chunk of his receiving yards goes to No. 1 wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it could be Smith-Njigba who claims the award.

Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards during the regular season and was unquestionably Seattle's most consistent offensive playmaker. There's also a precedent for receivers winning Super Bowl MVP in recent years.

Of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs, seven were quarterbacks, one was a defensive player, and two were wide receivers. Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp were the last two non-QBs to win the award.

Kenneth Walker III +650

Running back Kenneth Walker III is a bit of a sleeper pick among Seattle candidates, and that's largely because of the position he plays. Walker would have to truly carry the offense while the Seahawks defense has a subpar effort in order to claim the award.

It could happen, but it's worth noting that Terrell Davis was the last running back to be named Super Bowl MVP, and that happened in January of 1998.

Patriots MVP Favorites

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Patriots QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye +232

This one's pretty simple. If you believe that New England can pull off the upset, it's worth backing Maye as an MVP candidate. The talented dual-threat signal-caller was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league this season and is a finalist for the regular-season MVP award.

And for the Patriots to sustain drives against Seattle's top-tier defense, they'll have to rely on Maye's scrambling ability early and often.

Simply put, it's hard to envision New England winning this matchup without a stellar performance from Maye. New England could lead with its defense, as it did against the Denver Broncos in the AFC title game. However, Maye's legs were still a big part of that victory.

Rhamondre Stevenson +2897

Rhamondre Stevenson is the second favorite among Patriots players but is probably best avoided. As previously noted, running backs simply don't get heavy consideration for Super Bowl MVP in today's NFL.

While Stevenson is the starter, he isn't the only ball-carrier the Patriots are likely to trust next Sunday. Maye will do his fair share of scrambling, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson should also be heavily involved.

Stefon Diggs +5000

Anyone who wants to back a dark horse should consider Stefon Diggs at these odds. The Patriots' No. 1 receiver hasn't been as prolific as Smith-Njigba this season, but he's legitimately taken over games on occasion.

As good as Seattle's secondary has been this year, it hasn't completely shut down elite receivers. Puka Nacua, for example, racked up 165 yards and a touchdown for the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

If the Patriots can get Diggs going, they'll have a chance to win, and he'll have a very good chance of being named Super Bowl MVP.

Game Preview and Prediction

AP Photo/Ben VanHouten

Seahawks S Nick Emmanwori, CB Nehemiah Pritchett, and LB Tyrice Knight

We're likely to see one of two games unfold in Super Bowl LX. If the Patriots' defense can have another strong outing, we may see a low-scoring game that New England will have a chance to steal.

The Patriots' defense ranked eighth overall during the regular season but has been even better in the playoffs. It has needed to be, because New England's defense has sputtered.

Maye has looked like a second-year quarterback, while struggling with pressure awareness and ball security during the postseason, while the Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game. New England will likely need to keep the scoring at a minimum and force Darnold into repeated mistakes in order to get the victory.

Seattle, which had the league's top-ranked scoring defense in the regular season, is capable of winning a defensive battle. It also had a top-10 offense, though, and has racked up 72 points in two playoff games.

The Seahawks can open things up offensively and come away with a win because a shootout will favor them—unless New England suddenly finds some offensive answers, anyway. Whether we see a defensive battle or a track meet, though, special teams may also tilt things in Seattle's favor.

Receiver/returner Rashid Shaheed kicked off the Seahawks' postseason with a kickoff-return touchdown.

The prediction here is that both defenses shine early before the Patriots start to crack in the second half, and Smith-Njiba breaks things open with a couple of big plays.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 18

*Consensus odds from the Action Network