Buying or Selling Fantasy Football's Most Polarizing Players in 2026

Few things energize the fantasy football community more than a good draft-season debate.

Sure, we agree about a few players. Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson are pretty good. So are Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals, Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks at wide receiver.

But that's about it. Five picks in, the disagreements begin.

Fantasy debates inevitably produce differing evaluations. Supporters will be proved right on some polarizing players, while skeptics will be proved right on others. The question is which side has the stronger case for each player.

Here's a closer look at which side of each debate offers the stronger fantasy case.

QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

ADP: QB7

The first two NFL seasons for Caleb Williams have been something of a roller coaster. But over the second half of last season, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft turned it on.

The 24-year-old averaged over 20 fantasy points per game from Week 9 on and was a top-five fantasy quarterback over that span.

However, despite that hot finish, Williams is coming off draft boards right around where he finished for the season in 2025.

For Eric Patterson of The Score, the skepticism with Williams is borne of inconsistency—and a rough schedule late in the season:

"What's most concerning about Williams is his boom-or-bust style. Last year, the Bears gunslinger had two weeks as the QB1 but also logged eight weeks as the QB15 or worse. Add in the fact that Chicago's fantasy playoff schedule includes three outdoor games (at Buffalo, versus Green Bay, versus Detroit) and Williams could do more to hurt than help your fantasy team's title chances."

There's also a lot to like about Williams this year, though. He's entering his second year in Ben Johnson's offense—a scheme that has perennially produced big-time numbers under center.

There's no shortage of weapons available to him in the passing game. Per Gordon McGuinness of PFF, the Bears have a top-five offensive line. Williams also added almost 400 yards on the ground last year.

Fun fact: In 106 seasons, the Bears have never had a 4,000-yard passer. That longest of dry spells will end this year.

And Williams' ADP is much closer to his fantasy floor than his ceiling.

Verdict: Buy

QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Nick Wass

ADP: QB2

There is zero question that when Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is on top of his game, he's an elite fantasy option—and then some.

In his first MVP campaign back in 2019, he rushed for a ridiculous 1,206 yards, led the league with 36 touchdown passes and was the highest-scoring fantasy signal-caller by a wide margin.

As recently as two years ago, the 29-year-old threw for almost 4,200 yards and 41 touchdowns, rushed for over 900 yards and again led all fantasy quarterbacks by a sizable amount.

The ceiling is sky-high with Jackson. The problem is that in recent years, the floor has also become lower. In three of the last five seasons, he has missed at least four games.

There's also the matter of those gaudy rushing numbers—or more appropriately the lack of them. Sure, injuries played a part, but last year Jackson averaged just 26.8 yards per game on the ground.

Per BJ Rudell of Touchdown Wire, over the first four seasons of his career, between 37 percent and 43 percent of Jackson's total fantasy points came on the ground. Even in that outstanding 2024 season, that percentage fell to 27 percent. Last year it cratered—rushing accounted for just 22 percent of his fantasy production.

Jackson will be 30 in January, and he's no good to a Ravens team with Super Bowl aspirations if he gets hurt. This isn't to say he won't still run, but his days of 1,000-yard seasons on the ground may be over.

And the more Jackson has to rely purely on passing numbers for fantasy points, the less likely it is he'll be able to live up to his lofty asking price.

Verdict: Sell

RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Rusty Jones

ADP: RB14

In each of the last three seasons, Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams has eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards. He has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns. And he has finished as a top-10 running back in PPR points.

In 2026, though, he is barely being drafted inside the top 15 at his position, and some pundits believe he's overvalued in that spot.

The reason is workload. After playing sparingly as a rookie in 2024, Blake Corum had over 150 carries in 2025. He made the most of those carries, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He had double-digit carries in four of the last five regular-season games last year.

But while Williams' workload fell by 57 carries last year, as Derek Brown wrote at Fantasy Pros, he made up for the lack of quantity with increased quality:

"Williams had to deal with more work for Blake Corum last year, but he still retained his lead role overall and in the red zone. In Weeks 7-18, Williams still saw 63% of the red zone rushing attempts while Corum helped him with the heavy lifting on early downs in between the 20s. With the workload lightened a tad, Williams did post improved rushing efficiency metrics, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 25th in missed tackle rate, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data)."

Williams actually posted more total yards in 2025 (1,533) than he did the previous season. Even if Corum assumes a larger share of the early-down workload, Williams should retain the high-value touches that have supported his fantasy production and remains a strong bet to finish among the top 10 running backs.

Verdict: Buy

RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Doug Murray

ADP: RB7

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane had himself a year in 2025—the third-year pro led the NFL at 5.7 yards per carry, topped 1,800 total yards and finished fifth in PPR points among running backs.

Achane topped 300 touches for the season for the first time in 2025, and while appearing on The Rich Eisen Show new Miami head coach Jeff Hafley said Achane will be a busy back again in 2026:

"I just gave Achane a heads-up this morning and I told him you better be in good shape. I told him there might be some games when I have to pick him up and carry him back to the locker room because he's going to be so tired. I told him I don't ever want to see one of these head taps all year, and he looked me right in the eye and he said, 'You'll never get that head tap from me.' I said, 'Don't worry buddy. After you touch the ball 40-45 times, I might have to pick you up and carry you back into the locker room.'"

Hafley was joking, but Miami's limited supporting cast could again make Achane the focal point of its offense.

The problems with that are twofold. First, Achane is not built like Derrick Henry—he's a 5'9", 191-pound back. Second, if Miami struggles to remain competitive in 2026, positive game scripts could be limited, potentially reducing Achane's rushing volume.

Achane could outplay his asking price in 2026, but the downside risk may be even greater given his workload, smaller frame and Miami's likely game-script limitations.

Verdict: Sell

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

ADP: WR14

Despite sharing the Philadelphia Eagles' passing game with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith has shown he can be a productive fantasy asset. He has topped 1,000 receiving yards in three of his five seasons, including in 2025.

Now, Brown has been traded to the New England Patriots. But despite going from being Robin to Batman in the Eagles passing attack, many fantasy analysts are reluctant to predict a big spike in production from Smith in 2026.

However, as Adam Pfeifer pointed out at A Fantasy Life, when Smith has been the alpha wideout in Philadelphia, the target numbers and production have been encouraging:

"Over the last three years, Smith has been sporting a 28% TPRR (targets per route run) with Brown off the field, which would easily be his highest TPRR rate over an entire season. Meanwhile, in five games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Smith's averages are, as you'd expect, strong—9.0 targets, 6.2 receptions, 87.8 receiving yards, 16.2 PPR PPG and a 31.4% TPRR."

Pfeifer went so far as to call Smith this year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba—a wide receiver who is going to absolutely demolish his ADP. That may be stretching things a little, but in 2022 Smith turned 136 targets into a 95/1,196/7 stat line and a WR9 finish in PPR points. That 16.2 PPR points per game Smith averaged with Brown out the past few years would have ranked inside the top-five at the position in 2025.

Smith being available halfway through Round 3 makes it a lot more palatable to attack the running back position early in drafts this summer.

Verdict: Buy

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

ADP: WR9

Last season, Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns—his third straight season with over 1,000 receiving yards.

The 27-year-old was a top-12 wide receiver in terms of PPR points per game, and told reporters that he expects the Texans offense to rebound in 2026 after a shaky end to last season:

"We're getting better every single day. We're going against the number one defense in the league. This is what you want to compete against every single day in the heat when you're hot and tired. Your legs are burning and they're blitzing; that's when you want to be your best. I feel like as an offense right now, we're humming. We're continuing to put the pieces together and continuing to build every single day."

Quite a few fantasy drafters expect a career year from Collins, especially after Jayden Higgins was lost to a season-ending ACL tear.

For everyone who thinks Collins can finish in the top five, though, there's someone else who believes he will finish outside the top 12. Put me in the latter group.

The two-time Pro Bowler's talent is not in question. However, durability remains a concern: He has missed multiple games in each of his five NFL seasons. His per-game production and advanced metrics declined across the board in 2025, while C.J. Stroud's production has regressed in each of the past two years.

Stroud has also yet to throw 25 touchdown passes in a season, creating legitimate questions about whether Collins has the quarterback play necessary to reach a truly elite fantasy ceiling.

At his current ADP, the path to a top-five finish is narrower than many drafters appear to believe.

Verdict: Sell

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Stew Milne

ADP: TE10

For years, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce stood alone as fantasy football's gold standard at tight end and was a legitimate first-round pick.

However, the king's reign is over. In 2026, the 37-year-old is barely being selected in the top 10 at his position—and many believe that's too high a price to pay.

Kelce told reporters he's eager to show he still has something left in the tank after a 2025 campaign where he averaged a career-low 50.1 receiving yards per contest:

"I've still got a lot of love for this game. I still think I can go out and play at a high level, and I want to go out there and prove to myself that I can play at a better level than I did last year. I think that's probably the biggest thing for me is making sure that I'm accountable for the guys in this room every single play that I'm out there."

Kelce may not be the player he once was, but that doesn't mean he can't still be productive for fantasy drafters. For all he didn't do in 2025, he was third in PPR points among tight ends. The last time he wasn't a top-five fantasy option was in 2015. That was also the last time he didn't log 100 targets in a season.

Kelce is no longer at his peak, but he remains capable of providing top-five production at the position.

Verdict: Buy

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

ADP: TE6

Despite his TE6 asking price, Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has a less convincing fantasy case than many drafters appear to believe.

Austin Swaim of SI is among those bullish on the 25-year-old in 2026, citing new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's use of multiple-tight-end personnel packages in Arizona last season:

"Petzing's 10.5% usage rate of 13 personnel (or 3 tight ends) was nearly double the league average last year, and he targeted wide receivers at just a 45.0% rate last year -- also well below the league average (60.0%). Some might say, 'that's Trey McBride.' But, this is also LaPorta, a former top-40 pick who posted 889 receiving yards as a rookie to finish as the TE1 in fantasy football. His 2025 was derailed by injuries as he missed 8 games."

Petzing has favored heavier personnel packages, although that approach has become increasingly common across the league. Even so, drafting LaPorta at his current cost requires projecting a substantial rebound in volume and touchdown production.

LaPorta's rookie season remains an outlier. He ranked fifth among tight ends with 120 targets and scored 10 touchdowns that year; across the two seasons since, he has totaled 132 targets and 10 touchdowns.

Yes, the Lions have a prolific offense, but he's the No. 3 option at best in the Detroit passing attack. The target share just isn't going to be high enough to justify this draft-day cost.

Fantasy drafters often overvalue tight ends in this tier when projecting role changes.

Verdict: Sell