Surprise Landing Spots for Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Top MLB Free Agents
With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in two weeks, MLB teams have a window to finish their free-agent shopping with a flourish.
There are obvious landing spots for the top players left on the market, including Framber Valdez, Eugenio Suárez and two future Hall of Famers in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. But since surprises can happen, who are the dark horses?
This is what we'll get into by identifying one surprise landing spot for the eight best free agents still out there. These are teams that haven't been seriously connected to any of them, but which make sense and are somewhere within the realm of possibility.
Let's begin with a three-time batting champion who has been shunned all offseason.
1B Luis Arraez
1 of 8
Age: 28
2025 Stats: 154 G, 675 PA, 8 HR, 11 SB, .292 AVG, .327 OBP, .392 SLG
2025 Team: San Diego Padres
His Surprise Fit: Miami Marlins
Seen Luis Arraez's page on MLB Trade Rumors lately? It's awfully quiet there, and has been all winter.
This feels like license to truly have some fun in choosing his surprise landing spot. And with the Marlins, there's more to it than him returning to a place where he hit .343 in 180 games across 2023 and 2024.
This would be a case of the Marlins doubling down on what they already do well. They don't have many power bats in their lineup, yet they averaged 4.4 runs per game in 2025 through the help of the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league.
Arraez is, of course, the most strikeout-proof hitter in MLB. He struck out 21 times all year in 2025, two fewer times than Shohei Ohtani fanned just in the playoffs.
How Realistic Is It?
The fit is there. Arraez is best used at first base, where the Marlins project to get just 0.9 WAR in 2026. Only the Colorado Rockies are slated to do worse.
Miami is otherwise already projected to spend as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but it shouldn't cost too much to throw Arraez into the mix. With his market as cold as it is, he's well into "look for a one-year pillow contract" territory.
RHP Lucas Giolito
2 of 8
Age: 31
2025 Stats: 26 GS, 145.0 IP, 131 H (17 HR), 121 K, 56 BB, 3.41 ERA
2025 Team: Boston Red Sox
His Surprise Fit: Washington Nationals
There hasn't been a lot of reported interest in Lucas Giolito this winter, which would be surprising if his 3.41 ERA from last year wasn't such an obvious mirage.
Giolito really didn't fool many batters in 2025, as his strikeout rate and contact quality metrics were firmly below average. His expected ERA was 5.06, putting him roughly in Chris Paddack territory.
You have to wonder if Giolito's free agency will end with contenders bypassing him, leaving him to seek a deal with a club that views him as a future trade chip—and for this, the Nationals would be perfect.
They're Giolito's original club, and he's connected to president of baseball operations Paul Toboni from their time in Boston. And with MacKenzie Gore now in Texas, there is an opening in the Nats' rotation.
How Realistic Is It?
This will come down to Giolito's salary demands. If he's in, say, the $15-20 million range, it's hard to imagine the Nationals going that far just for a future trade chip.
But if he's more in the $10-15 million range, that's at least a "maybe." As it is, the Nats aren't projected to spend even $100 million on their payroll in 2026.
RHP Max Scherzer
3 of 8
Age: 41
2025 Stats: 17 GS, 85.0 IP, 87 H (19 HR), 82 K, 23 BB, 5.19 ERA
2025 Team: Toronto Blue Jays
His Surprise Fit: Kansas City Royals
According to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, the latest on Max Scherzer is that he could pull a Roger Clemens and wait until the middle of the 2026 season to pick a team.
That would make a lot of sense for him, as the last two seasons have proved him to be well past his peak durability. The question, then, is which team could be in a position to both need him and be able to entice him.
The Royals stand out because, while they're likely to contend on the strength of their starting pitching, their rotation also resembles a house of cards. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are in their mid-30s, and Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic both ran into major injury trouble last year.
Plus, Scherzer is a Missouri native. He's more so associated with St. Louis, but he played college ball at the University of Missouri, about a two-hour drive from Kansas City.
How Realistic Is It?
This idea falls apart if all four of the aforementioned hurlers stay healthy, but it's reasonable to question whether that will happen.
Though the Royals are already threatening a franchise-record $149 million payroll in 2026, they'll have to be willing to add to it if the playoffs are within their sights. And if that happens, a pro-rated deal for Scherzer wouldn't cost that much.
RHP Justin Verlander
4 of 8
Age: 42
2025 Stats: 29 GS, 152.0 IP, 155 H (16 HR), 137 K, 52 BB, 3.85 ERA
2025 Team: San Francisco Giants
His Surprise Fit: Texas Rangers
The Baltimore Orioles are interested in Justin Verlander, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and popular speculative landing spots include three of his former teams: the San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros.
So why the Rangers? Well, why not the Rangers?
President of baseball operations Chris Young is a former pitcher who has based the Rangers' whole identity around starting pitching. The club's rotation led the league in ERA last year, and is set to consist of an intimidating front three of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore.
There is some uncertainty in terms of durability with that trio, though, and the back end of the rotation has questions of its own. By bringing aboard a legend like Verlander, Texas would be both solidifying its rotation and tripling down on its identity.
How Realistic Is It?
With Cody Bradford due to return from elbow surgery as soon as May, the Rangers could just let it ride with Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker at the back end of their rotation and then see what happens.
Even so, they would seem to have the payroll space to add Verlander, who is probably looking at a one-year deal in the $15-20 million range.
RHP Chris Bassitt
5 of 8
Age: 36
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 170.1 IP, 174 H (22 HR), 166 K, 52 BB, 3.96 ERA
2025 Team: Toronto Blue Jays
His Surprise Fit: Cleveland Guardians
There hasn't been a lot of action on Chris Bassitt throughout the winter. Only the Detroit Tigers are known to have interest in him, per Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic.
It's a bit odd, considering that Bassitt has been a solidly above-average source of innings for seven years. He's perfect for a team that has a strong rotation up top, but which could use stability toward the back end.
The Guardians match that description. The Gavin Williams-Tanner Bibee duo is solid, but Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi are average-ish types. The Guardians otherwise lack a solid option for the No. 5 spot.
For what it's worth, Bassitt is an Ohio native who played college ball in Akron. That's only about an hour's drive from Cleveland.
How Realistic Is It?
The Guardians just did their customary thing of extending José Ramírez to buy some goodwill from their fans, but what they really want is some assurance that the club's AL Central title from last year will be properly defended.
It's a bit too late to spend on a bat, so fortifying the rotation is certainly the next-best option. And to this end, there seems to be enough payroll space for even a $20-million-per-year deal for Bassitt.
RHP Zac Gallen
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Age: 30
2025 Stats: 33 GS, 192.0 IP, 176 H (31 HR), 175 K, 66 BB, 4.83 ERA
2025 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
His Surprise Fit: Chicago White Sox
Zac Gallen's market was the subject of a ton of buzz back in December, but it has since quieted down. He's another free agent whose market feels rudderless.
This alone conjures the idea of the White Sox, who have made a habit of unexpectedly swooping in to nab key free agents this winter.
Already, they've spent $66 million on Munetaka Murakami, Seranthony Domínguez and Anthony Kay. It's a nice little haul, and they're fresh off clearing more money for another deal by trading Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets.
If they want to use that money on Gallen, they could try to sell him on being something that he wouldn't be on a contender: a No. 1 starter. Were he to live up to that billing in a one-year deal, he'd return to the market next winter with more value.
How Realistic Is It?
After the Robert trade, the White Sox are projected to spend just $77 million in 2026. That's less than even the Tampa Bay Rays.
The catch here is that, because Gallen rejected a qualifying offer, Chicago would have to be comfortable surrendering its second-highest draft pick to sign him. That could be a bridge too far, though the gamble could be that he'll either be a valuable midsummer trade chip or the ace of a playoff-bound team.
3B Eugenio Suárez
7 of 8
Age: 34
2025 Stats: 159 G, 657 PA, 49 HR, 4 SB, .228 AVG, .298 OBP, .526 SLG
2025 Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
His Surprise Fit: Philadelphia Phillies
If one had to guess at this point, Eugenio Suárez will either head back to Seattle on a club-friendly deal or join the Pittsburgh Pirates on something more lucrative. The Boston Red Sox are also somewhere in there, but seem less enthusiastic.
The Phillies, meanwhile, just missed out on signing Bo Bichette as a free agent. That he, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta joined the New York Mets in rapid succession only added insult to injury.
The heat is on the Phillies to do something in response, and signing Suárez is arguably the best play they can make. He's one of the best pure power hitters in the sport, so he and Citizens Bank Park would figure to be a dream matchup.
To wit, Statcast estimates that Suárez would have hit 54 home runs if he'd been a Phillie for the whole year in 2025.
How Realistic Is It?
The Phillies are already in the "Cohen tax" region of the luxury tax after re-signing J.T. Realmuto, so the possibility that they're done with big moves may be real.
This said, doing a $15-20 million-per-year deal with Suárez could be offset by a trade of Alec Bohm, who is due to make $10.2 million in his final season of arbitration-eligibility.
LHP Framber Valdez
8 of 8
Age: 32
2025 Stats: 31 GS, 192.0 IP, 171 H (15 HR), 187 K, 68 BB, 3.66 ERA
2025 Team: Houston Astros
His Surprise Fit: Arizona Diamondbacks
The signs seem pointed toward Framber Valdez landing with the Baltimore Orioles, where he would reunite with Mike Elias and further supercharge an already much-improved team.
But if any alternative is worth plucking out of the hat, it's the Diamondbacks.
They have already defied expectations this winter, with talks of a reduced payroll and a Ketel Marte trade giving way splashes on Merrill Kelly and Nolan Arenado and no Marte trade. Evidently, they still aim to contend.
Were they to sign Valdez, they'd get to slot him at the top of their rotation and then just sit back and watch his ground-ball style work wonders with what should be an excellent infield defense.
How Realistic Is It?
The D-backs are tracking about $16 million short of what they spent in 2025. Valdez is worth more than that on a multi-year deal, but you have to wonder if he has the leverage for one of those right now.
If the Snakes could talk Valdez into a one-year deal, the idea for them would be to go all-in on giving the Los Angeles Dodgers a fight in the NL West.
For Valdez, the idea would be to use 2026 to stay healthy, pitch effectively and position himself for a strong trip back to the open market.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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