Bleacher Report's Expert AFC and NFC Championship NFL Picks

The NFL Conference Championship games have intriguing storylines, with four quarterbacks who paved different pathways to these matchups: a Super Bowl winner, a backup, a bounce-back two-time Pro Bowler and an upstart MVP candidate.

What does all that mean for the complexion of Sunday's games?

Our panel of NFL experts, B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell, have sorted through the storylines to find the angles that matter most from a betting perspective. 

One analyst is all-in on the home underdog winning outright in the AFC, and there's a heavy lean toward the road underdog in the NFC matchup.

Each expert also shared their top prop bet to lock in for one of the games. 

Check out the breakdowns and analysis for picks against the spread and props for the Conference Championship Round.

Playoff ATS Standings 

T-1. Davenport: 7-3

T-1. Knox: 7-3

3. O'Donnell: 6-4

T-4. Gagnon: 4-6

T-4. Hanford: 4-6

T-4. Moton: 4-6

T-4. Sobleski: 4-6

Lone Wolf Picks: 0-2

Lines are from Action Network as of Thursday, Jan. 22, at 4 p.m. ET. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

New England Patriots (14-3) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

Odds Line: Patriots (-5.5)

Davenport: Patriots (-5.5)

The Broncos are the AFC's No. 1 seed. Their defense is as good as any in the NFL and should be able to get after Drake Maye. Denver will be playing at home in front of a raucous crowd in its first AFC title game since Peyton Manning's last contest at Mile High.

However, Manning isn't leading these Broncos. Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham is, and that's the killer.

Stidham has one win in four NFL starts and a career passer rating south of 80. The Broncos haven't been able to run the ball consistently since J.K. Dobbins got hurt. And New England's defense was eighth in yards allowed and fourth in points allowed this season in its own right and has looked even better in the playoffs.

It's a rotten way for the Broncos' season to end, but they aren't going to be able to generate enough offense to cover here, let alone win.

Gagnon: Broncos (+5.5)

I have a feeling the Broncos are going to win this game. 

We all know that beyond quarterback play, the next-best key to success at this juncture is a dominant pass rush, and Denver's is as good as they come. That unit will likely be a huge factor as a young, inexperienced Patriots offense tries to function in an intimidating environment with two rookie offensive linemen and a second-year QB. 

It's not as though I don't believe in the Patriots, but I don't think they're ready, and they certainly aren't battle-tested after facing the softest schedule in the league.

This could serve as a wake-up call now they're on the road and facing the pressure of high expectations. Meanwhile, a Broncos squad coached by a legend with a Super Bowl on his resume will have nothing to lose following the injury to Bo Nix.

Look for the rest of the Broncos to step up as a result. 

Nix is a great player, but he's not a superstar, and he actually had a so-so season. There isn't any obvious drop-off to Stidham, but a lack of familiarity and recent tape could hinder the Patriots, and that element of surprise could work to Denver's advantage in a home upset. 

Knox: Patriots (-5.5)

This line is far larger than I'd like, especially since I don't anticipate Denver's game plan to change much with Jarrett Stidham starting in place of Bo Nix. I think he'll have a much better game than most expect, and I think Denver will get after Drake Maye early and often. 

Maye has been sacked 10 times through two playoff games. 

However, I also think the Broncos' defense could struggle to contain the Patriots if they lean on their ground game. Denver surrendered 183 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry against Buffalo last week. I expect New England to get similar results out of Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, and Rhamondre Stevenson while running its way into Super Bowl LX. 

Moton: Broncos (+5.5)

Stidham is a decent backup quarterback who can execute with a well-thought-out offensive game script and avoid game-changing mistakes. Over his last four starts with the Las Vegas Raiders and Broncos between 2023 and 2024, he threw for 1,080 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. 

As one of the league's best offensive play-callers, head coach Sean Payton will have Stidham ready to at least keep the Broncos offense steady with short passes to the running backs and tight ends. Denver keeps the score within a touchdown.

Predictions

Patriots: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Broncos: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford

Odds Line: Seahawks (-2.5)

Hanford: Seahawks (-2.5)

It's hard not to take Matthew Stafford and the points, but the Seahawks are firing on all cylinders at this point. The run game took a hit with Zach Charbonnet's injury, but Kenneth Walker III is running like a player who wants a big payday this offseason. And the defense is fierce. 

Los Angeles had trouble protecting Stafford last week against the Bears' mediocre defense, and that will be an issue again this week against a Seattle group that can come at you from anywhere.

Sam Darnold's play in a big game is going to give everyone pause, but the Rams' inability to put teams away, combined with a few uncharacteristically long cold stretches from Stafford the last two weeks, should give everyone the same feeling.

In the end, Seattle stays hot with a three-point win.

Moton: Rams (+2.5)

These NFC West rivals battled down to the wire in their last two meetings, which were decided by fewer than three points. With higher stakes for this matchup, expect another nail-biter.

The season series between these clubs is split 1-1, though in the last matchup, the Rams squandered a 16-point fourth-quarter lead. If Los Angeles gains another double-digit advantage, it won't allow another comeback.

Furthermore, it's far easier to trust Stafford than it is to put your faith in Darnold in a playoff game. 

This is a go-either-way contest with a one- or two-point margin, but you should take the more trustworthy team and the points.

O'Donnell: Rams (+2.5)

Plain and simple, I think the Rams win the game by getting home on Darnold. The points are just bonus insurance.

Stafford has not been good of late, and the Rams are a bit lucky to be here, honestly. However, Seattle, and the Darnold career renaissance arc, is a great story, but it ends here.

Stafford has the opportunity to add to his legacy, and future Hall of Famers have a way of rising to the occasion. I think the likely 2025 NFL MVP rediscovers enough of his form against this vaunted defense to play in another Super Bowl. 

Sobleski: Rams (+2.5)

These two teams split their regular-season meetings by a total of three points. Keep in mind, a missed fourth-quarter field goal by Harrison Mevis is the only reason why the second contest went into overtime and the Rams didn't win both.

Right now, this pick is based on trust, plus taking the points. In a big game, Stafford inspires far more confidence than Darnold.

The Seahawks may own the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense, but Stafford shredded the unit for 457 passing yards in December, with a five-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio between the two divisional matchups. Conversely, Darnold threw six interceptions.

Furthermore, Seattle's starting left tackle, Charles Cross, has a foot injury and didn't practice to start the week, which means he likely won't be 100 percent during this contest. Depending on how he's moving come game time, Darnold's life could be even more difficult. 

Predictions

Rams: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Seahawks: Gagnon, Hanford

Top Prop Recommendation

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Sam Darnold

Davenport: Kayshon Boutte Anytime TD (+265) 

Prop bets require two things to be worth my time. The first is enough juice to make it interesting, and the second is a realistic chance it will actually pay off.

Enter Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

The 23-year-old was second on the team in targets in the divisional round, averaged a robust 25 yards per catch and caught one of this season's prettiest scores.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to scheme Boutte into coverage from Broncos cornerback Riley "DPI" Moss. Boutte is going to get behind him and...bingo.

Gagnon:  Seahawks D/ST Anytime TD (+500)

Seattle has scored eight non-offensive touchdowns this year. No other NFC team has more than three.

I get the feeling the Rams are going to become frustrated on the road while trailing a superior rival with an elite defense, and they'll force something that will result in a splash by the Seattle D to ice the game and send the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. 

Hanford: Colby Parkinson Anytime TD (+330)

Parkinson has one touchdown already this season against his former team, and I like him to find the end zone again. Seattle's defense has been dominant in most areas this year, but they have been vulnerable to tight ends.

Parkinson was targeted seven times against the Bears last week, and I think Stafford will be forced to look his way again as the Seahawks focus on Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. 

Knox: Sam Darnold 2-Plus Interceptions

As L.A. safety Kamren Curl recently stated, the Rams know what kind of quarterback Darnold is and exactly how to force him into mistakes.

After Darnold's two uneven games against Los Angeles this season, which included six interceptions, I'd expect the Seahawks to try to limit his exposure to turnovers by leaning on the run, but that may be difficult with Zach Charbonnet out of the equation.

At roughly 3-1 odds, I'm backing Darnold to toss a pair of picks on Sunday. 

Moton: Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+200)

Last week, Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid feasted on the Broncos defense, hauling in all six of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Josh Allen misfired on a potential touchdown pass to tight end Dawson Knox.

If Drake Maye comes close to matching his regular-season 72 percent completion rate, tight end Hunter Henry should be on the receiving end of at least one touchdown pass against a defense vulnerable to big-bodied pass-catchers.

O'Donnell: Patriots D/ST Anytime TD (+400)

Jarrett Stidham is going to play conservative football. The Pats will not see the opportunity to pick off the new Broncos' starter the way they did C.J. Stroud a week ago. New England may also struggle mightily against the Broncos D. Mike Vrabel's defense will be hunting for turnovers off ball-carriers. Add in the potential for a special teams unit to be aggressive in aiding a Pats offense that will need it, the D/ST might be New England's best hope of scoring a touchdown on Sunday. 

Sobleski: Sam Darnold 22 Completions (+167)

This prop may have been an easy choice based on the fact that Darnold threw at least 22 completions during both regular-season meetings. But it's also based on two other factors. 

First, the Rams are going to move the ball. The Seahawks' defense won't nullify the game's top-ranked offense. As such, Darnold will be placed in a position where he has to throw the ball, likely to keep pace. 

Second, Charbonnet's season-ending knee injury should limit Seattle's running attack to a degree. Yes, Kenneth Walker III is still the lead option, but Charbonnet was used regularly, with 35 total carries during the last two regular-season contests.