Buster Posey, Jon Lester and Eligible Players for 2027 Hall of Fame Class

On the heels of Tuesday's announcement for the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame class, the focus will now turn to the players who will appear on the ballot for the first time in 2027.

The 2027 class of newly-eligible candidates isn't particularly deep, but it could feature one first-ballot Hall of Famer.

San Francisco Giants legend Buster Posey is the most intriguing addition to the ballot. Other notable names who will be eligible for the first time include Jon Lester, Brett Gardner and Ryan Zimmerman.

Here is the full list of first-time eligible candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame starting in 2027:

• Buster Posey, C (2009 to '21)
• Jon Lester, SP (2006 to '21)
• Brett Gardner, OF (2008 to '21)
• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (2005 to '21)
• Kyle Seager, 3B (2011 to '21)
• Jay Bruce, OF (2008 to '21)
• Ervin Santana, SP (2005 to '21)
• Asdrúbal Cabrera, 2B (2007 to '21)
• Todd Frazier, 3B (2011 to '21)
• Josh Reddick, OF (2009 to '21)
• Jake Arrieta, SP (2010 to '21)
• Scott Kazmir, SP (2004 to '21)
• Jordan Zimmermann, SP (2009 to '21)
• Trevor Bauer, SP (2012 to '21)
• Pablo Sandoval, 3B (2008 to '21)
• Jonathan Lucroy, C (2010 to '21)
• Dexter Fowler, OF (2008 to '21)
• Joakim Soria, RP (2007 to '21)
• Starlin Castro, 2B (2010 to '21)
• Alex Avila, C (2009 to '21)
• Wilson Ramos, C (2010 to '21)
• Jon Jay, OF (2010 to '21)
• Wade Davis, RP (2009 to '21)
• Tony Watson, RP (2011 to '21)
• Dellin Betances, RP (2011 to '21)
• Derek Holland, SP (2009 to '21)
• Andrew Miller, RP (2006 to '21)
• Neftalí Feliz, RP (2009 to '21)
• Will Harris, RP (2012 to '21)
• John Axford, RP (2009 to '21)

There was a time when Posey's candidacy wouldn't have felt very strong. He finished his career with 1,500 hits and 158 homers. It's extremely rare for anyone to get in the Hall of Fame with that combination of stats.

Only six players have ever been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame who had fewer total hits with at least 150 homers, each of whom retired before 1960. Josh Gibson and Roy Campanella are the only players from that group of six whose primary position was catcher.

Posey's candidacy is helped by two things. The first is that he was a key contributor on three World Series-winning teams with the Giants, including in 2012 when he also won the NL MVP award.

The second factor that will likely help Posey is Joe Mauer's first-ballot selection in 2024. Mauer did play three more years than Posey (15 to 12) and beating him in total hits (2,123). He also had an advantage in batting average (.306 to .302) and on-base percentage (.388 to .372), but neither one is so significant to provide a decided edge. Posey had the advantage in slugging percentage (.460 to .439) and homers (158 to 143).

Both players each won an MVP and five Silver Slugger awards. Posey's peak seven-year WAR was 36.5, slightly above the average seven-year peak for the 17 Hall-of-Fame catchers (34.9).

When you combine the statistical advantage with the three World Series as the starting catcher for those Giants teams, it would be a surprise if Posey doesn't get elected.

Jon Lester figures to have a more difficult time getting in, though his resume isn't dissimilar to Posey's. He did get to the 200-win threshold in his 16-year career, but his 3.66 ERA would be the seventh-highest of any starting pitcher in the Hall.

A three-time World Series champion, Lester will be relying heavily on his playoff resume to carry him. He can make a great argument with it based on a 2.51 ERA over 154 innings in 26 postseason appearances, including pitching in the closeout games of the 2007 and 2016 Fall Classics.

Lester's playoff ERA is the best of all-time among pitchers with at least 150 innings. His primary issue is the lack of regular-season accolades. He never won a Cy Young award and only had one runner-up finish in 2016.

After those two at the top, Brett Gardner and Ryan Zimmerman are the only other players who had at least 40.0 career bWAR. It won't be enough for either one to get in, though one or both of them could hang around on the ballot for a few years.

Zimmerman was on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory to start his career. He hit .286/.353/.482 and was the eighth-best player in the NL by fWAR from 2006 to '10, but he only played more than 120 games three times over his final 10 seasons to derail his case.

Even though the 2027 class of first-time eligible players isn't strong, there is the possibility for two inductees based on how much progress Chase Utley made this year in his third year on the ballot.