Final Predictions for Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones and 2026 MLB Hall of Fame Voting Results
The 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame voting results will be revealed Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network, and in a thin year of first-time candidates, some holdovers from previous ballots are eyeing enshrinement.
Outfielders Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones are both trending above 80 percent support with a little more than half of the 424 ballots revealed publicly, while Chase Utley is making a strong push in his third year of eligibility.
Who will join Jeff Kent, who was selected by the Contemporary Era Baseball Committee in December, as part of the 2026 Hall of Fame class?
Before the results are revealed, it's time for a final round of predictions on how the voting will play out this year.
As always, a tip of the cap to Ryan Thibodaux and his team at Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker. The early voting data they compile is an invaluable resource in tracking the Hall of Fame vote each year.
There Will Be 11 One-and-Done Candidates
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While Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia gave voters a pair of strong first-ballot candidates in 2025, this year's crop of newcomers is one of the weakest in recent memory.
Of the 12 first-time candidates up for consideration, Cole Hamels (67 votes) is the only player who has secured another year of consideration. With an estimated 424 voters this year, it will take 22 votes to receive the five percent support necessary to avoid falling off the ballot.
Here are the guys on track to go one-and-done:
Ryan Braun: 5 votes
Edwin Encarnacion: 2 votes
Shin-Soo Choo: 1 vote
Nick Markakis: 1 vote
Hunter Pence: 1 vote
Rick Porcello: 1 vote
Gio Gonzalez: 0 votes
Alex Gordon: 0 votes
Matt Kemp: 0 votes
Howie Kendrick: 0 votes
Daniel Murphy: 0 votes
As for holdovers, Torii Hunter (12 votes) still has work to do to earn a seventh year on the ballot, while Francisco Rodriguez (24 votes) has already punched his ticket for a fifth year and Omar Vizquel (24 votes) will get a 10th and final look in 2027.
Cole Hamels Will Start Off Strong
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Cole Hamels is part of a new wave of pitching candidates that will need to be assessed under a different lens, following in the footsteps of Félix Hernández, who received 20.6 percent support in his first year on the ballot in 2025.
Both players fall well short of traditional Hall of Fame milestones like 300 wins or 3,000 innings pitched, but in the modern bullpen era, it's unlikely we'll ever see another pitcher reach those marks once Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer hit the ballot.
For the better part of a decade, Hamels was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he carried the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies to a World Series title when he won NLCS MVP and World Series MVP.
Is that enough for serious Hall of Fame consideration?
His 57.9 WAR is not far behind first-ballot selection CC Sabathia (61.8), and ahead of Hall of Famers Jim Kaat (45.2) and Jack Morris (43.6) who were both recent inductees by the Veterans Committee as thinking has started to shift.
With 67 votes, Hamels has already secured another year on the ballot, and his trajectory will be interesting to watch in the coming years.
A Middle-of-the-Pack Group Will Make a Push
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With Ichiro Suzuki (99.7 percent), CC Sabathia (86.8 percent) and Billy Wagner (82.5 percent) all receiving more than 80 percent support in 2025, and no newcomer outside of Cole Hamels (31.2 percent) making any real noise this time around, the bulk of voters have two or three new check marks available on their ballot if they are voting for the maximum 10 candidates.
As a result, a few middle-of-the-pack players are seeing a nice bump in support that could position them for a legitimate push in the coming years:
David Wright: 8.1 to 20.0 percent in 3rd year of eligibility
Mark Buehrle: 11.4 to 22.8 percent in 6th year of eligibility
Dustin Pedroia: 11.9 to 26.0 percent in 2nd year of eligibility
Bobby Abreu: 19.5 to 39.1 percent in 7th year of eligibility
All four of those players saw their actual voting total fall roughly 2-4 percent lower than they were trending once private ballots were counted in 2025, so there could be a slight dip coming, but that would still represent a legitimate step forward.
As he starts inching closer to falling off the ballot, Bobby Abreu and his impressive 60.2 WAR and strong power/speed profile could gain some serious traction.
Manny Ramírez Will Fall Short of Gary Sheffield's Voting Numbers
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With his ties to the Mitchell Report and BALCO scandal, Gary Sheffield always faced an uphill battle to avoid suffering a similar fate as guys like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds, though he continues to deny ever knowingly using PEDs.
Now Manny Ramírez is set to join that group, as he has already been "mathematically eliminated" based on his 86 votes with 50.7 percent of the ballots made public, making it impossible for him to reach the 318 votes needed for induction.
While Sheffield saw his support climb all the way to 63.9 percent in his 10th and final year of eligibility in 2024, the 34.3 percent support that Ramírez received in 2025 was his highest over his first nine years.
So why the differing views from a significant number of voters, when Ramírez unequivocally has the better Hall of Fame resume?
"The doping rap sheet on Ramirez is extensive, with him failing at least three drug tests: the initial MLB survey testing in 2003, which didn't result in suspension; in 2009 with a 50-game suspension; and in 2011, which netted a 100-game suspension and ended his MLB career," Mike Fish of ESPN wrote in 2023.
That'll do it.
Felix Hernández, Andy Pettitte Will Break the 50 Percent Threshold
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We touched on some middle-of-the-pack candidates that have received a healthy bump in support thanks to a thinned out ballot, but the biggest beneficiaries of that have seemingly been pitchers Felix Hernández and Andy Pettitte.
With an elite peak and counting numbers that fall short of traditional Hall of Fame thresholds, Hernández stands as an interesting test case for the next wave of pitching talent set to hit the ballot in the coming years. His support has more than doubled after a solid showing in his first year of eligibility in 2025.
2025: 20.6 percent
2026: 56.7 percent
Meanwhile, Pettitte is in his eight year of consideration, and he has gone from a fringe candidate to even stick around on the ballot to all-time high vote totals this year. His admitted HGH use has always seemed like an insurmountable roadblock to induction, but that narrative might be shifting.
2019: 9.9 percent
2020: 11.3 percent
2021: 13.7 percent
2022: 10.7 percent
2023: 17.0 percent
2024: 13.5 percent
2025: 27.9 percent
2026: 56.7 percent
The momentum started to build for Pettitte a year ago, so there is some foundation to his spike in support, and if his total stays around the 50 percent mark once private ballots are revealed, he could have a real shot at a Hall of Fame push in his final two years of eligibility.
Chase Utley Will Be on Track for 2027 Induction
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In this same article last year, it was noted that Chase Utley's Hall of Fame candidacy had shifted from an "if" to a "when" as he was trending around 50 percent support in his second year on the ballot.
The final number ended up dipping considerably once private ballots were revealed, but he still took a productive step forward in his second year of eligibility, and he is on track for another spike this time around.
2024: 28.8 percent
2025: 39.8 percent
2026: 67.9 percent
His 64.6 WAR is higher than 12 of the 21 current Hall of Fame second basemen, including 2026 Veterans Committee inductee Jeff Kent (55.4), though the position is no stranger to snubs with Lou Whitaker (75.1), Bobby Grich (71.1) and Willie Randolph (65.9) all on the outside looking in.
Given his superior peak performance and the way his voting support is trending three years into his eligibility, it's unlikely Utley will join those snubs, and it's entirely possible that 2027 will be his year.
Andruw Jones Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2026
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Current 2026 Voting Percentage: 83.7 percent
It's unbelievable that it has taken Andruw Jones this many years on the ballot to finally be trending toward induction, but all signs point to him getting the call on Tuesday night.
It's been an impressive climb for a player who nearly went one-and-done on a crowded ballot in 2018.
2018: 7.3 percent
2019: 7.5 percent
2020: 19.4 percent
2021: 33.9 percent
2022: 41.4 percent
2023: 58.1 percent
2024: 61.6 percent
2025: 66.2 percent
Injuries limited him to 435 games after his age-30 season and ultimately cut into his counting stats, but at his peak, he was one of the best two-way center fielders the game has ever seen.
Even at a quick glance, 10 straight Gold Gloves, 434 home runs and 62.7 WAR should have been all voters needed from his first year on the ballot to check the box next to his name.
Carlos Beltrán Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2026
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Current 2026 Voting Percentage: 88.8 percent
One of the greatest power/speed players in MLB history, Carlos Beltrán is one of only five guys to tally 400 home runs and 300 steals, joining Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.
His 70.0 WAR is the eighth-highest total ever by a center fielder, behind six inner-circle Hall of Famers (Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr. and Joe DiMaggio) and Mike Trout.
Perhaps the only thing that kept him from being a first-ballot selection was his role in the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, which cost him his job as Mets manager shortly after he was hired. Still, his initial support in 2023 was strong, serving as a good foundation for his Hall of Fame push.
2023: 46.5 percent
2024: 57.1 percent
2025: 70.3 percent
Now he looks poised to get over the 75 percent hump and take his place in Cooperstown, which could be good news for former Astros teammate Jose Altuve when his time comes on the ballot.
