Bargain or Rip-Off: Examining Remaining Top MLB Trade Targets
Every trade ever made in Major League Baseball's Internet/social media era is immediately evaluated the same way.
Before any of the players have their names stitched into new uniforms or check into their temporary-home hotels, the trade is ripped open, examined and diagnosed as good or bad for everyone involved. That is part of the novelty of any trade, and that is especially true during the week of the non-waiver deadline, which comes Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
At this point, less than three days from the threshold, we can give early examinations to players who remain on the trading block. Will they be a bargain? Will they become regrettable acquisitions? Should teams do all they can to make the deal or steer clear?
There are still a good number of big-name players on the market, and blockbuster trades are still waiting to be made. Before those players are moved, we'll dissect their value here.
David Price, Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers are looking to buy. Period. That was their stance as of Tuesday, and they appear committed to it, according to several media outlets, including ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
However, the Tigers are still long shots to catch the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central, and after their loss Tuesday, they are 4.5 games back in the wild-card race with five teams in front of them.
It is possible the organization changes course before the deadline and makes David Price available. If that is the case, and considering Detroit's desire to compete now, it would take a lot to pry Price away. It would not be quite the return package Hamels would draw simply because Price is a two-month rental, but it is safe to assume the price would be higher than it was for Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir—similar front-line rentals who have already been dealt for solid returns.
Also, if teams like the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers see the price for Hamels as too high, they could engage in a bidding war for Price, further driving up the cost. Either way, Price will not be moved for chump change.
Because of that, Price is far from a bargain but not quite a rip-off. He has a 2.53 ERA and 156 ERA+ in 2015, and he makes any rotation a formidable one in October. But if a team can't sign him to an extension or in free agency, it's likely only a World Series title this year would justify the cost.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
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Carlos Gonzalez has become the biggest bat on the market over the last two weeks. And with the Rockies' stunning blockbuster trade of face-of-the-franchise Troy Tulowitzki, the idea of the organization moving Gonzalez has become that much more plausible.
In his last 15 games entering Tuesday, he was batting .459/.492/1.033 with a 1.525 OPS, five doubles and 10 home runs. It is an incredible stat line that shows he is still one of the game's premier hitters when he's right. It also has created a market for him while driving up Colorado's asking price. It's simple supply-and-demand economics.
"They expect to move him," a general manager told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
There are suitors. The Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets and possibly even the St. Louis Cardinals are in the market for a bat, and a middle-of-the-order outfielder would fit for them beyond just these next two months.
The Angels seem to have put together a platoon situation with Shane Victorino, David Murphy and David DeJesus over the last couple of days, so that might take them out of the mix until the winter when the Rockies might be more inclined to trade Gonzalez, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
He has an ugly injury history, and his career splits away from Coors Field are pretty significant—for instance, a .983 OPS at home and .752 on the road. And his recent run has done a lot to boost his 2015 numbers, which had not been overly impressive before his hot stretch.
Gonzalez is owed $43 million from now through 2017, and if he produces like he has at home, he is a bargain. The thing is, he won’t be hitting in Denver anymore, and his health is still a legitimate concern, not to mention it is reasonable for the Rockies to ask for only a slightly lesser return than they got for Tulowitzki.
All things considered, this could be the big rip-off remaining on the trading block—the baseball equivalent to a checkout-line impulse buy. Buyers beware.
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
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While the Detroit Tigers might be the most watched team over the next couple of days, the White Sox are a close second. Jeff Samardzija is the reason.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Monday the White Sox would wait to see where they stand after their series against the Boston Red Sox before deciding if they will sell Samardzija, who will be a free agent after the season.
He has posted a 3.94 ERA and 95 ERA+ for Chicago—far from his career-best 2.99 ERA and 125 ERA+ as a starter in 2014. So there is risk that Samardzija might not be the impact pitcher his price would infer, although in his four starts prior to Tuesday, he had a 1.71 ERA in 31.2 innings. On Tuesday he went eight-plus innings and allowed four runs
The Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants have shown interest in Samardzija, according to Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago. The White Sox are asking for a return package of four players for the right-hander, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported last week. It is safe to assume the team would want one of them to be a top-end prospect.
For the way he has thrown this month, if only one of those return names is a top-flight prospect, Samardzija could be one of the big-time difference-makers over the next two months and in October. Consider him a cheaper version of David Price who could be just as effective...and certainly a bargain.
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Justin Upton, San Diego Padres
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A month ago, Justin Upton was maybe the market's premier outfield bat. Now, because of Carlos Gonzalez's power binge and his own slide, Upton's price is dropping as the Padres appear to be getting desperate to move their big names, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Over his previous 17 games before Tuesday, Upton hit .136/.200/.237 with a .437 OPS and two home runs, and he's also dealt with an oblique issue during that time. Considering he gives a team virtually no defensive value, all of his worth comes through his bat.
It is, needless to say, a bad time to be slumping and hurt.
Still, Upton has the name to excite a fanbase and the talent to break out at any moment. Teams like the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets know this, and their needs could lead them into more serious discussions about Upton as the deadline nears.
Since the Padres are getting antsy to move pieces and Upton is a soon-to-be free agent with plenty of concerns surrounding his game and health, he could come relatively cheap. If he breaks out and hits, he is a bargain. And, at a tamped down price, even if he doesn't, it won't hurt the acquiring team too badly.
Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit Tigers
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Yoenis Cespedes is now part of a deep outfield market, or at least he would be if the Tigers decide to make him available. Like David Price, he is part of the team's decision to not sell this season. And like Price, he could be put on the trading block at any minute between now and Friday afternoon if the Tigers suddenly switch directions.
Cespedes is a legitimate power hitter in a market that doesn't have a ton of it, which means he could bring back a decent player in return but nothing outrageous. That is especially true since his contract requires him to be released five days after the season, which means he can't receive a qualifying offer from the Tigers.
Also, the collective bargaining agreement precludes a player from signing with a team that releases him until May 15, so that could greatly lower his price, as any team that trades for him most likely won't be able to re-sign him.
Like Justin Upton, Cespedes has picked a poor time to go into a funk. He hit .209/.292/.442 over his previous 11 games entering Tuesday, although he did have three homers in that time.
Marc Carig of Newsday reported the New York Mets have interest in Cespedes, and Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reported last week the Los Angeles Angels also had interest, but that is likely gone with their recent flurry of outfield acquisitions. As was the case with the Angels, the longer this thing drags out with the Tigers, the fewer teams will engage the Tigers because they will presumably look elsewhere for outfield help, like San Diego or Milwaukee.
If Cespedes is moved, it will be late in the game and won't be for a massive return, and that makes him a bargain.
James Shields, San Diego Padres
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James Shields was a premier arm on the free-agent market last winter, but he's hardly pitched like it aside from his great strikeout rate (10.0 per nine innings). His command has been spotty, resulting in a ton of walks and home runs, pushing his ERA up to 3.77 and dragging his ERA+ down to 94, even in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
It is quite possible this is the result of career fatigue. Shields came into the season having pitched more than 200 innings in each of his previous eight seasons. This season he is averaging about six innings per start after averaging seven innings in his previous four.
His four-year, $75 million contract is also heavily back-loaded. The Padres are paying $10 million of it this season, but the next four years jump to $21 million each with a club option or $2 million buyout at the end of it.
Even assuming the Padres eat a nice chunk of the deal in a trade, there will be plenty left to pay for a pitcher who is showing signs of being well beyond his prime. Again, the Padres are pushing to trade pieces and shed money, so it could mean the return does not have to be significant.
Still, that is a lot of money to pay for a declining Shields. If he costs an acquiring team anything more than a mid-level prospect, he would be a rip-off.
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
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Aroldis Chapman has a case as baseball's best reliever at this point in his career, and he is under contract for another season of arbitration in 2016, which could boost his salary into the $12 million range. Even with the raise, he is attractive to teams that are in and out of playoff contention.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are the latest team to discuss Chapman with the Reds, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan reported Tuesday. The San Francisco Giants, who seem to be doing their due diligence on every arm out there, have also inquired, according to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi.
Several reports have the Reds asking for a significant return for Chapman, or as ESPN's Jayson Stark quoted one AL executive, the asking price is "exorbitant."
Chapman is great, but he is still a ninth-inning reliever. He can only be so impactful and used so often. If any team meets the asking price, this will be a huge overpay.
Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers
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Unlike with Carlos Gomez, the Brewers seem to be ready to move Adam Lind, who is a power-hitting left-handed bat. The Los Angeles Angels and most recently the St. Louis Cardinals have discussed Lind with the Brewers, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal and ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, respectively.
Lind will be a free agent after the season, and Milwaukee's asking price could be reasonable since he is mostly a platoon player—he hits .212/.258/.328 against left-handed pitching for his career.
Since the Brewers have basically no use for Lind on the field, they might as well do what they can to get something more for him than a compensation pick before he hits free agency. As long as the price is reasonable, Lind could provide a contending lineup with pop and on-base skills in a deadline bargain.
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