Should the Rangers Trade Artemi Panarin or Re-Sign Him?
The New York Rangers were expected to be major players in a historic 2026 free agent class. Not yet into the new year, that already looks like a bust. Almost every big name — Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov — has committed to a new contract with his current team.
Ironically, the biggest name left on the list is one of their own. Artemi Panarin's seven-year contract, signed in 2019, expires on July 1. This puts the Rangers in a bind. The team is aging and has plateaued in its current bubble form. They need sweeping changes to the roster's composition. But is getting rid of the team's leading scorer the actual solution?
The Rangers will have to assess what Panarin's future looks like and, perhaps more importantly, what their own path may be.
Panarin's 2025-26 Performance
1 of 5
At face value, Panarin's 2025-26 season implies a player in steep decline. His 36 points in 37 games is a sub-point-per-game trend unbecoming of a supposed "superstar." The Russian has not ended a season producing at a rate that low since 2016-17, and it's far off the mark of his 120-point season just two years ago.
No doubt, Panarin's game has dropped to an extent, but the underwhelming point production says more about what's happening around him. The Rangers are the second-lowest-scoring team at 5v5 in the NHL, with a 2.00 goals-per-60 rate. Yet the team is scoring 3.15 goals per 60 with Panarin on the ice. It's a high level of offense, even if not quite matching the pinnacle of his NHL career.
Top players may shift from controlling all aspects of play to being offensive-zone opportunists in the latter stages of their careers. This would not be a fair assessment of Panarin at 33 years old, however.
The numbers align with a near-consensus among anyone who has watched the Rangers this season. Panarin is on an island as an offensive catalyst. The team is indebted to him in all aspects: carrying play through the neutral zone, establishing offensive-zone possessions, and providing dual-threat capabilities as both a passer and a shooter.
He remains one of the NHL's top creators of offense, and the Rangers, frankly, have no other player who comes even close. Panarin has produced a point on 37.9 percent of the Rangers' goals this season, which is the ninth-highest share among NHL players. His contribution percentage is proportional to that of Nikita Kucherov in Tampa Bay or Mikko Rantanen in Dallas. With better help around him, Panarin's point totals would almost certainly be higher.
Is Panarin the Hart Trophy finalist of 2020? At age 33, he is not. He remains one of the NHL's best individual offensive creators.
Projecting Panarin's Future
2 of 5
What will it take for the Rangers to re-sign Panarin? Much will come down to Panarin's own prerogative. How much of a hometown discount is he willing to take (not much, reportedly)? Is his priority term length or annual value? How much can his cap hit be shaved by the inclusion of certain bonuses, payment structures, and trade protections? Is he willing to endure a lengthy, contentious negotiation knowing he has the leverage, or is peace of mind worth leaving a few hundred thousand dollars off the table?
Let's assume a three-year, $33 million total contract that takes Panarin to age 37, as Evolving Hockey's model suggested over the summer. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn projects that Artemi Panarin will be worth $11.63 million over the life of such a contract. The trouble with this type of projection is that, while we can project the effects of aging across a large sample, the individual impact can vary. Will Panarin be a Patrice Bergeron or Joe Pavelski and end his career just as impactful as ever? Or will he hit a brick wall in his mid-30s like Jarome Iginla or Steven Stamkos?
Physical traits like skating and shooting tend to be the first to go. Those who age well tend to rely on playmaking, vision, and hockey IQ. Panarin also started his North American hockey career at 23 years old, has a good track record of health, and his style of play doesn't lend itself to nightly beatings.
Anecdotally, old age seems to favor players like Artemi Panarin. Mats Zuccarello, Martin St. Louis, and Adam Oates are/were brilliant operators in a small space with playmaking tendencies and either mediocre skating or at least a lack of sole reliance on it.
What A Trade Might Look Like
3 of 5
The Rangers have other considerations besides Panarin's theoretical aging curve. They may not be the worst-positioned team in hockey, but they are stuck in the mud. They're a coin flip to make the playoffs as a bottom seed. The team has an aging core, an underwhelming pool of young players, and little financial room.
If Panarin is not re-signed by the March 6th trade deadline, then he has to be traded. The Rangers cannot afford to lose him for nothing in a season going nowhere.
A trade may not be as fruitful as one might expect. Yes, Panarin is a top player, and many teams would be interested. But Panarin controls the entire process with his full no-trade clause. Just as Brad Marchand did last year, he made it clear that it was Florida or nowhere, and the price paid reflected as much: a conditional first-round pick.
If Panarin picks his spot in the same way, then the Rangers can expect a similarly putrid return. Even if we suppose a more open bidding process, the Rangers may be looking at a pick in the mid-to-late 20s of the 2026 NHL Draft and a decent prospect or two. That's the precedent set by the likes of Marian Hossa, Jarome Iginla, and Ilya Kovalchuk at past trade deadlines.
.png?w=256 "Playoff Winners and Losers")
Life After Panarin
4 of 5
If the idea is to move Panarin to open up space to change the team's makeup, it's difficult to see how to do so. The Rangers are already having a tough time generating offense, and Panarin is their best option to do so. Replacing him in free agency by paying market rate for Alex Tuch or Nick Schmaltz would only further the team's descent into irrelevance.
You never know who may become available on the trade market, but there are no clear candidates at present. Even when a few emerge, do the Rangers really have the tradable assets to make it happen? They didn't come close with Quinn Hughes.
Maybe the idea, then, is to move Panarin as part of a bigger plan to rebuild.
Even if Madison Square Garden ownership signed on to the idea (unlikely), the Rangers aren't set up to truly embrace it. Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox alone will ensure the Rangers are never bad enough to tank over the next few seasons.
Making the Best Worst Decision
5 of 5
There are no great options in New York right now. Fans have many reasons to worry about signing another aging star to a multi-year contract. Depending on how strong Panarin's ask is, they may have no choice but to move on.
If his demands are even in the ballpark of reasonable, then re-signing Panarin seems to be in the team's best interest on the ice. It is possible the Rangers may overpay him in this scenario, but not all overpayments are equal. If there's a limited housing supply in an area where you must live, then you may have to bite the bullet and overpay relative to objective value, cutting costs in your life elsewhere.
The trouble with overpaying for middle-six forwards or depth defensemen is that there is plenty of supply, making it totally unnecessary. In contrast, there are few difference-makers on par with Panarin available at any given moment. There will definitely be none available in July who would cost nothing beyond cap space.
Even if the plan for the Rangers is to pause immediate ambition and wait for a better day, they may best be served to gut the roster to mine cap space and young assets through other means. Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafreniére, Will Borgen, etc.
If the idea is to woo an elite player, won't that require a roster that offers players with whom they want to collaborate? Is Tage Thompson or Auston Matthews going to get excited by the idea of lining up next to Will Cuylle? If Panarin is not part of the next window in which the Rangers contend, he may help bridge them to that moment.
It's possible a Panarin extension blows up in the Rangers' faces in the next few years. But if the Rangers move on from him, there aren't many scenarios in which the team doesn't end up in the same disastrous place anyway. The argument may not be that the Rangers will be in a great spot by keeping Panarin, but that they'll be in an even worse spot if they don't.
.png?w=480 "Playoff Winners and Losers")
