Predicting MLB Stars on the Block Who Won't Get Traded by July 31
For MLB stars like David Price and Yasiel Puig, this is the week of the year when a single text from an agent or a single call from a general manager can change everything.
With the trade deadline looming on July 31, there's a torrent of rumors swirling around game-changers like Price and Puig.
Of course, talk doesn't always translate to action. There are all sorts of reasons why all sorts of prominent trade chips will be staying put this week.
Some of the big leaguers who crack this list make for bad trade candidates because they're having uncharacteristically poor seasons. Other players on the list are enjoying strong campaigns but are still owed a ton of money over the life of their deals. Plus, there are a few who won't be going anywhere because their contract situations give their respective clubs the luxury of being as patient as they want to be.
Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies
1 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $16 million salary
- 2016: Owed $17 million
- 2017: Owed $20 million
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Carlos Gonzalez doesn't sweat the speculation.
“It’s part of this game. When you are in a situation like I am, of course your name is going to come up in trade rumors," Gonzalez explained via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. "But it’s OK, as long as there is some team that likes the way you play. That shows respect. But that doesn’t mean I want to go someplace else.”
After digging through the numbers, it's easy enough to see why CarGo wouldn't mind staying put at Coors Field: he rakes in the Rockies.
In 2015, Gonzalez is the owner of a shiny .852 OPS. At home, the mark sits at .936, but on the road that figure plummets to .768.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports noted via Twitter that the lefty hitter would be a "great fit for [the Los Angeles] Angles" whose lineup leans heavily to the right side. There's no question that the Halos brass and any other front office that is potentially interested is well aware of Gonzalez's drastic home and road splits.
Money is yet another factor that will keep CarGo anchored with the Colorado Rockies. The right fielder is still owed the balance of his $16 million salary in 2015 and rakes in $37 million over the next to seasons. That's some major coin.
James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
2 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $10 million salary
- 2016: Owed $21 million
- 2017: Owed $21 million
- 2018: Owed $21 million
- 2019: Has a $16 million team option (or a $2 million buyout)
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Back-loading is no joke.
It takes just a single look at the terms of James Shields' contract to understand why this pitcher is all but unmovable—even if the word is that the San Diego Padres "really want to move" him, per Jayson Stark of ESPN.
Shields is pitching on a reasonable $10 million salary in his first season at Petco Park, but he'll haul in at least $65 million in 2016 and beyond. That's a ton of money for a potential trade partner to take on—especially in light of how the 33-year-old has wobbled on the road in 2015.
Like Gonzalez, Shields has been a whole different player when he's away from his home park. In San Diego, Shields has reeled off a 2.47 ERA. In road contests, that mark skyrockets to 5.01.
The road woes and his excessive future earnings make Shields a high-risk trade target for a club looking to bolster its rotation.
Carlos Gomez, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $8 million salary
- 2016: Owed $9 million
Why This Star Will Stay Put
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, there's no lack of teams kicking the tires on Carlos Gomez. Rosenthal pegs the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants and the Houston Astros as squads who have inquired about the availability of the center fielder.
And who wouldn't want a player like Gomez? The 29-year-old can run, hit and play defense. He's also a bargain on the financial front, making $8 million this year and $9 million in 2016.
It's Gomez's contract situation that means that the Milwaukee Brewers have the luxury of playing it slow in Gomez trade talks. If GM Doug Melvin is overwhelmed by an offer for the Dominican, then he could pull the trigger this week. Then again, he can also wait to ship out Gomez in the winter or even next July.
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Craig Kimbrel, RP, San Diego Padres
4 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $9 million salary
- 2016: Owed $11 million
- 2017: Owed $13 million
- 2018: Has a $13 million team option (or a $1 million buyout)
Why This Star Will Stay Put
There's no debating the quality of Craig Kimbrel's work on the mound. The right-hander has piled up 29 saves for the San Diego Padres in 2015 and closed out at least 42 games in each of the previous four seasons.
Like so many other players on this list, money is one of the fundamental issues that complicates a potential trade for the 2011 National League Rookie of the Year. Kimbrel makes the rest of his $9 million salary this year, $11 million in 2016, $13 million in 2017 and potentially another $13 million the year after that.
Even if a contender looking for a little extra bullpen firepower is willing to take on that commitment, there's also the cost in terms of prospects.
As Jon Heyman of CBS Sports explains, the Pads are looking for a lofty return. According to Heyman, one prospect that San Diego has targeted is Trea Turner of the Washington Nationals. The promising shortstop, who played in the 2015 All-Star Futures Games, was in the Padres farm system before the ill-fated three-team Wil Myers swap which sent Turner to the nation's capital.
Between his high salary and the Padres' big demands, a Kimbrel trade doesn't appear to be on tap this week.
Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $6.2 million salary
- 2016: Owed $7.2 million
- 2017: Owed $8.2 million
- 2018: Owed $9.2 million
Why This Star Will Stay Put
As Yasiel Puig explained via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, his preference is to stay put with the the NL West front-runners. At the same time, Puig knows there's no guarantee that he'll get his way.
"I'll play anywhere," Puig said. "I came to the United States [from Cuba] to play baseball. Baseball is the same anywhere. If they want to trade me, that's their decision. I can't do anything about that."
There a are a variety of reasons why holding onto the Cuban just makes too much sense for the Dodgers. First, there's the consideration that shipping out Puig now would be a classic example of selling low. After missing five weeks with a hamstring injury, the right fielder is swinging at a clip of .253, which is by far the worst mark of his three-year tenure at Chavez Ravine.
Another reason why Los Angeles should be in no rush to jettison Puig is that he's signed to a team-friendly deal. With Puig set to make $7.2 million, $8.2 million and $9.2 million, respectively, over the next three seasons, the Dodgers have plenty of time to wait for 24-year-old to return to his dynamic ways. And if he doesn't, that contract will be easy enough to move down the line.
Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
6 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $5.3 million salary
- 2016: Arbitration eligible
- 2017: Arbitration eligible (can't become a free agent until after the season)
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Tyson Ross is a sneaky good starter. In 2015, the right-hander is sporting a 3.45 ERA, which is actually his highest mark in the past three seasons.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Ross has drawn the interest of the Chicago Cubs, and "is a focus of nearly every team talking" to the San Diego Padres. Even though 2015 has been a dud of a season for the Pads, now is not an ideal moment to deal away Ross.
The starter is under club control through the end of 2017 and has the ability to be a cornerstone player for the NL West squad in the near future. Instead of parting ways with Ross, the Padres front office should make selling off free-agents the priority.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds
7 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $8 million salary
- 2016: Arbitration eligible (can't become a free agent until after the season)
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Aroldis Chapman is one of a kind. The lefty throws absolute gas, with his four-seam fastball clocking in at an average speed of 100.7 mph, per Brooks Baseball. That heater has allowed Chapman to post a 16.0 K/9 ratio and lock up 20 saves in 21 tries for the Cincinnati Reds.
As a result of those numbers, the Reds are holding out for a ransom in exchange for the closer, as Jayson Stark of ESPN explained via Twitter: "One AL exec's description of the #Reds price tag on Aroldis Chapman: 'Exorbitant.' Other clubs not sure the owner wants to move him."
With Chapman under team control through the end of the 2016 season, the Reds brass is well within its right to think big. After all, the team can still ship out Chapman this winter or next summer.
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
8 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $6.9 million salary
- 2016: Owed $7.9 million
- 2017: Owed $9.9 million
- 2018: Owed 10.9 million
- 2019: Owed $11.9 million
- 2020: Has a $16 million team option (or a $1 million buyout)
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Starlin Castro isn't playing like a star, but he's been included on this list because he's being paid like one. The shortstop, who is in the fourth season of an eight-year, $60.6-million deal, has also been the subject of trade speculation this summer.
Per Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the San Diego Padres have talked to the Chicago Cubs about the 25-year-old. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Castro is one of the players who the Cubs have offered in trade talks for Cole Hamels.
While his name keeps popping up, it's unclear just why any team would want to bring him on board. Currently, Castro has negative trade value, as he's batting .239 with a .580 OPS. For the Cubs, the best play is to hope that Castro can turn his season around down the stretch. If he does, the team will have a far easier time marketing the 25-year-old in the winter.
David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers
9 of 9
The Contract Situation
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $19.8 million salary
Why This Star Will Stay Put
Sitting in third place in the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers have been major underachievers in 2015. While selling off assets like free-agent-to-be David Price would be a savvy move, there's no guarantee that the team will follow that course of action.
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, one GM who is looking to acquire the lefty ace doesn't have the impression that Price will be leaving Motown in a swap.
“I have had multiple check-ins with them, and there has been no movement on their part," The GM told Sherman.
As Sherman explains, the the reason that Price remains unavailable is simple. The team's 86-year-old owner Mike Ilitch really wants to win a World Series. Even if Dealing Price would bring back a monster haul, it would also crush whatever slight hopes remain of accomplishing that goal in 2015.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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