Fresh Predictions for Cody Bellinger and Next Crop of MLB Free Agent Signings
With the MLB Winter Meetings in the rearview, nine of B/R's original top 25 free agents—Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Dylan Cease, Edwin Díaz, Shota Imanaga, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff and Robert Suarez—are off the board.
However, that still leaves the bulk of the top free agents available as we approach the holiday season.
Here are fresh predictions on how the six remaining members of the original top 10 on our countdown fare.
Kyle Tucker, RF
1 of 7
2025 Stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 87 BB, .841 OPS, 4.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 29
Original Ranking on List: 1
Original Contract Prediction: 10 years, $360 million with player opt out available after 2029
Original Team Prediction: Yankees
Fresh Prediction: 10 years, $360 million with player opt out available after 2029 with Yankees
For being the consensus top free agent available this offseason, things have been surprisingly quiet on Kyle Tucker.
The incumbent Chicago Cubs seemingly aren't going to mount any real attempt to retain an outfielder entering his age-29 season, a bizarre strategy from a franchise that doesn't flex its financial might nearly as much as it should.
After re-signing Kyle Schwarber to a five-year, $155 million deal, the Philadelphia Phillies—a team that some believed could be a possible suitor for Tucker—likely won't be a factor in his sweepstakes.
The Yankees remain an interesting potential landing spot for Tucker, who seemingly would thrive playing 81 games a season at Yankee Stadium. He would likely have to shift to left field, with Aaron Judge in right field and the aforementioned Grisham hoping to rebound defensively in center field. But there's no evidence at this point that the Yankees are hell bent at this point to try to land Tucker, as opposed to just bringing back Cody Bellinger, who does come with more positional flexibility.
Will the Mets—so far one of the biggest losers of the offseason—become a player for Tucker? He could play in one of the two corner outfield spots, essentially replacing (and serving as an upgrade over) Brandon Nimmo. Whether the Mets are inclined, an offseason after giving Juan Soto a 15-year deal, to spend big on another corner outfielder is unclear.
The defending AL Champion Blue Jays may prove to be the best landing spot for Tucker, though perhaps we're putting too much stock in the Tampa native making the relatively close trip to Dunedin, where Toronto spends their Spring Trainings.
If Tucker lingers on the market, it will be interesting to see the two-time defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers are able to convince Tucker to take a contract like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso did last year that pays him a ton annually on a short-term deal with opt outs.
It is strange to have this little clarity on a player with Tucker's resume coming out of the Winter Meetings.
Alex Bregman, 3B
2 of 7
2025 Stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 51 BB, .821 OPS, 3.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Original Ranking on List: 5
Original Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Original Team Prediction: Tigers
Fresh Prediction: Five years, $135 million with Red Sox
The Tigers haven't yet emerged as a major contender for Bregman in the way they were last offseason season when offering him a six-year, $171.5 million deal, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.
But just as it felt like Bregman could be destined to have a one-year reset in Boston like Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre did in 2010, the market has played out in a way where him returning to the Red Sox might be more likely than it appeared at the outset of the offseason.
It can be argued whether Schwarber or Alonso would have been a better fit for the Red Sox given their power production, but both signed elsewhere. In what projects right now to be a very left-handed lineup, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow might be best off circling back to the right-handed hitting Bregman.
Another thing to consider is Bregman was ineligible for the qualifying offer after receiving one last winter. So if Bregman leaves, Boston won't get anything in return. That's another reason to retain the three-time All-Star.
Bo Bichette, INF
3 of 7
2025 Stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 40 BB, .840 OPS, 3.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 28
Original Ranking on List: 2
Original Contract Prediction: Seven years, $210 million
Original Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Fresh Prediction: Seven years, $210 million with Blue Jays
A return to Toronto has always seemed to be the best outcome for Bo Bichette, given that there's unfinished business. Things don't always play out that way, though, and if the Blue Jays sign Tucker—after already committing $200+ million to Cease—they almost certainly aren't going to re-sign Bichette.
The Atlanta Braves have already made two big moves in their bullpen, re-signing Raisel Igleasias and luring Robert Suarez away from the San Diego Padres. But they do have hole at shortstop right now, and while they could re-sign Ha-Seong Kim, Bichette obviously would represent a major offensive upgrade.
However, the reason we've listed Bichette as an infielder—not just a shortstop—is he has minus-19 defensive runs saved and minus-32 outs above average at that position in his career. Even if he signs to play shortstop, he likely won't stick at that position for the entirety of the contract. And some teams may like him more at another position, whether they have an established shortstop or not.
The Red Sox could consider Bichette as an alternative at the hot corner to Bregman. While he likely will get a larger deal, he's four years younger.
Again, re-signing with the Blue Jays might ultimately be what's best for everyone involved. But it's at least interesting to consider other possibilities.
Ranger Suárez, LHP
4 of 7
2025 Stats: 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 151 K, 157.1 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Original Ranking on List: 10
Original Contract Prediction: Four years, $110 million with player opt out available after 2027
Original Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Fresh Prediction: Four years, $110 million with player opt out available after 2027 with Cubs
Teams may be hesitant to give Ranger Suárez as many years as he and agent Scott Boras would like given that he's had a back injury in three of the last four seasons and saw his average fastball velocity dip to 91.3 mph in 2025. However, the former All-Star is still going to make out quite well.
Suárez has shown an ability to thrive both as a top-of-the-rotation starter and a reliever. He's got a 3.38 regular-season ERA across parts of eight seasons with the Phillies, and has been even better in the postseason, pitching to a 1.48 ERA over 42.2 career October innings.
After signing Cease, the Blue Jays almost certainly won't be a fit for Suárez. Plenty of other teams make sense, though.
The Baltimore Orioles have already been very active this offseason, signing Alonso and Ryan Helsley, while trading for Taylor Ward. A bulk of the rest of the offseason for president of baseball operations Mike Elias will likely revolve around addressing needs both in the starting rotation and bullpen. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner reported earlier this week that the O's do indeed have interest in Suárez.
The Cubs need another starter to go with Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Shota Imanaga, and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand previously reported that in addition to the Orioles, Chicago and the Houston Astros are "the most serious threats to sign him away from the Phillies."
Based on how this offseason has played out, we're going to guess that this comes down to the Orioles and Cubs.
Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B/DH
5 of 7
2025 Stats: .273/.379/.663, 22 HR, 47 RBI, 32 BB, 1.043 OPS (56 games in Japan)
Age in 2026: 26
Original Ranking on List: 6
Original Contract Prediction: Five years, $95 million
Original Team Prediction: Mets
Fresh Prediction: Five years, $95 million with Mets
There's been surprisingly little buzz on Munetaka Murakami considering the fact that his posting requires that he reach a deal with an MLB team by 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 22.
It's particularly difficult to gauge his market because while he's homered 246 times in eight seasons for the Yakult Swallows, he also strikes out at a high clip and there are concerns about his ability to hit high velocities. Additionally, it's unclear if any teams really view him as a third baseman, or if he's seen strictly as a first baseman and/or DH.
For whatever it's worth, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns did personally scout Murakami over the summer:
With Alonso having departed, the Mets obviously have a need for a power hitter. Murakami could play first base and/or DH in New York.
The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels could make sense for Murakami, but probably only if they believe he can play third base at least on a part-time basis.
In any event, with the posting clock ticking for Murakami, he could be one of the next free agents whose market starts to crystalize.
Cody Bellinger
6 of 7
2025 Stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 57 BB, .813 OPS, 4.9 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Original Ranking on List: 8
Original Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Original Team Prediction: Mets
Fresh Prediction: Five years, $135 million with Mets
Perhaps the biggest winner in how the offseason has played out so far for the Mets is Cody Bellinger, who would be an upgrade for Carlos Mendoza's club, which now has needs at first base, left field and center field.
The crosstown-rival Yankees likely don't want to see Bellinger leave for the Mets an offseason after Juan Soto did the same thing. So the Mets being seriously in on Bellinger could up the ante from Brian Cashman.
The Phillies probably won't be a fit for Bellinger after what they've spent on Schwarber (with J.T. Realmuto probably up next), and the Dodgers likely won't want to give enough years to bring the former NL MVP back to Los Angeles.
Right now, it looks like Bellinger will spend the foreseeable future in New York, it's just a matter of whether it will be in Queens or the Bronx.
Framber Valdez, LHP
7 of 7
2025 Stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 187 K, 192 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Original Ranking on List: 7
Original Contract Prediction: Four years, $114 million with $25 million club option for 2030
Original Team Prediction: Cubs
Fresh Prediction: Four years, $114 million with $25 million club option for 2030 with Orioles
Framber Valdez is an appealing free agent in the sense that he's posted the fifth-highest WAR (16.5) and logged the second-most innings pitched (767.2) since the 2022 season.
However, he posted a 5.20 ERA after making his second career All-Star Game appearance, and it's still hard to shake the bizarre situation in in September where he appeared to purposely cross up catcher César Salazar:
Given how bizarre the finish for Valdez was in 2025, he probably won't be back with the Astros. It's unclear if any other potential suitors will be turned off by how things ended in Houston.
The Cubs, our original prediction, continue to make sense for Valdez. Ditto for many of the other teams mentioned with Suárez, like the Orioles and Mets.
