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2025 NFL Week 13 Expert Picks
Bleacher Report's NFL experts are a day ahead of the holiday schedule, breaking down Week 13 games against the spread before the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader.
Following a slate in which underdogs went 9-5, let's see if the crew believes it's a strong week for favorites.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell felt the pain of a few hooks in Week 12, but they're back for better results.
With tighter lines this week, the selectors are nearly split on several games and reached a unanimous decision on one contest.
Taking a look at the standings, Gagnon continues to move up the ranks with consecutive winning weeks. Knox and Moton are tied for first. Only three wins separate third and fifth place.
All 32 teams are in action for Week 13, featuring marquee matchups for three of the next four days. Lock in with our panel for a full slate of breakdowns.
ATS Standings
T-1. Knox: 95-82-1
T-1. Moton: 95-82-1
3. Hanford: 93-84-1
4. Gagnon: 92-85-1
5. O'Donnell: 90-87-1
6. Sobleski: 86-91-1
7. Davenport: 77-100-1
Lone Wolf Picks: 17-16-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Monday, Nov. 24, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4)
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Gagnon: Packers ( 2.5)
I'd prefer to get a full field goal here, but I view this game as a pick'em, and I trust the Packers more than the Lions right now.
Detroit was lucky to beat the Giants one week after putting up only nine points in Philadelphia. Green Bay hammered the Lions in Week 1 and hasn't lost on the road since that weird Cleveland game in September.
I think the Packers pull this one out.
Hanford: Lions (-2.5)
I debated going with the Packers here after the Lions survived a surprisingly hard-fought win over the Giants on Sunday. But with Josh Jacobs banged up, I don't think Green Bay has the offense to exploit the Detroit defense.
No one in this Packers' passing attack is enough of an impact player to take advantage of a vulnerable Detroit secondary.
Rivalry games can go either way, but I trust the Lions' ground game to pace the offense, control the clock and earn Detroit a key NFC North win.
Predictions
Packers: Gagnon, Sobleski
Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
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Davenport: Cowboys ( 3.5)
This game is going to draw gonzo ratings—two teams with massive fanbases in the afternoon slot on Thanksgiving coming off wins they absolutely had to have.
Don't really trust either of these teams, and a Chiefs win wouldn't be even a little surprising. But the Cowboys are at home on a short week after an emotional win with the league's top offense in yards and fourth-best in points.
Dallas can stay close—and that makes taking the hook the call.
Knox: Chiefs (-3.5)
The Cowboys team we saw against Philadelphia in Week 12 can beat the Chiefs at home. In fact, they should beat the Chiefs at home.
However, Kansas City is desperate, and I expect Dallas to experience a bit of a hangover after coming back against its division rival.
I don't expect the Chiefs' offense to stall out the way Philadelphia's did on Sunday.
Predictions
Chiefs: Knox, Moton
Cowboys: Gagnon, Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
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Hanford: Ravens (-7)
Going with the Bengals in Joe Burrow's return was tempting, but I'm backing the Ravens here. Lamar Jackson and the offense have struggled since the QB returned from injury, but if they're going to get right, then this is the spot for it.
The Bengals have been gashed on the ground all year, and if Baltimore can do anything, it can still run the ball right at you.
I'm worried about the push here, and the Bengals should come out flying with the return of their QB, but I like Jackson to have a big game and the Ravens to cover.
Moton: Bengals ( 7)
Burrow's possible return would be a significant morale boost for a team on a four-game losing streak. He's a week too late to breathe life into Cincinnati's playoff hopes, but the Bengals could pull off an impressive division upset with him under center.
In nine matchups with Burrow against Baltimore, the Bengals have won three and lost by three or fewer points in four.
Tee Higgins will miss this game while in concussion protocol, but Ja'Marr Chase will be back from a one-game suspension to haul in a ton of targets against Baltimore's 24th-ranked pass defense.
Predictions
Ravens: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Bengals: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
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Knox: Eagles (-7)
This line feels entirely too large, considering both teams are 8-3, and Philly just got blanked for an entire half. The fact that the line is this large makes me think Vegas is trying to push money toward Chicago.
I do believe in the Bears, but they will have a hard time running their winning streak to five against a championship-caliber defense.
Moton: Bears ( 7)
This is a massive line for a Bears team on a four-game winning streak going against the Eagles, who field an inconsistent offense.
Moreover, quarterback Jalen Hurts and wideout A.J. Brown are working through turmoil. The Eagles have won only one of their eight games by more than seven points, a 38-20 victory over the New York Giants.
Chicago's 28th-ranked run defense could give up ground to Philadelphia's run game, but Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Also, the Eagles will be without two-time All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson.
The Bears may not win, but they will keep the margin within a touchdown.
Predictions
Bears: Gagnon, Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Eagles: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Houston Texans (6-5) at Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
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O'Donnell: Colts (-4.5)
A loss would not only drop the Colts further out of the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but it would also open the door to all sorts of scenarios for the AFC South race.
Indy still has to play Jacksonville twice and the Texans again in Houston in Week 18. If there's a must-win game on the Colts' schedule, it's right now.
This hook is a little scary against the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL, but it's time for the Davis Mills train (if C.J. Stroud remains out) to slow down. Colts by at least a touchdown.
Sobleski: Texans ( 4.5)
The Colts offense has been slowed by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs in two of the last three weeks.
The Texans field the NFL's top-ranked defense, as a unit capable of dictating an entire game. The fifth-ranked rushing defense can slow Jonathan Taylor, which will allow its talented defensive ends—Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter—to pin their ears back and tee off on Daniel Jones.
As seen in those previously mentioned contests, Jones struggled when dealing with so much pressure.
Predictions
Texans: Gagnon, Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Colts: O'Donnell
San Francisco 49ers (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-8)
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Davenport: 49ers (-6.5)
The Browns looked marginally competent offensively against the Raiders last week, but Vegas has a tendency to make everyone look good.
The 49ers have been beset by injuries on defense, but Robert Saleh still has that unit playing decent football.
Cleveland's defense will keep the team in this one (all hail Myles Garrett, the best defensive player in the league), but the Niners will ride Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to a touchdown win in a game in which Shedeur Sanders makes at least one mistake.
Sobleski: Browns ( 6.5)
Two factors come into play regarding the Browns' ability to keep Sunday's matchup close, if not to win it outright.
First, the Cleveland defense can make life miserable for Brock Purdy, who is coming off a three-interception performance (and probably should have had a couple more picks).
Second, Sanders serves as an X-factor. That isn't to say he will light up the Niners defense. It's pointing out there's more playmaking ability at the quarterback position for the Browns now.
If Sanders can move Cleveland's offense and play complementary football, the Browns have every chance to complete an upset at home.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Los Angeles Rams (9-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)
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Moton: Panthers ( 10)
The Carolina Panthers are a notch below the league's playoff pretenders, but at home, they can hang within a single-digit margin of the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams are 2-1 straight-up in 1 p.m. kickoff games, beating the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens by 14 points. That being said, the Panthers field a feistier defense than the Titans' and Ravens' units. On the road last Monday, their defense kept them in the game.
Carolina finds the backdoor for a late cover, as quarterback Bryce Young tries to regain momentum in the passing game.
O'Donnell: Rams (-10)
Carolina has alternated wins and losses for the last six weeks. That ends in Week 13, but by how much? This is a big number even for the NFL's current Super Bowl favorite.
Every time I back the Panthers, though, I start second-guessing myself. I'm avoiding that this week and risking the points thanks to L.A.'s defense putting Young in a spin.
Predictions
Rams: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Panthers: Gagnon, Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
New Orleans Saints (2-9) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
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Knox: Dolphins (-5.5)
I'd probably back New Orleans if the line was just a little bit bigger. However, I think the Saints will struggle to exploit Miami's underwhelming defense with Alvin Kamara injured and Rashid Shaheed in Seattle.
The Dolphins have won three of their last four, and I expect them to come out of their bye with confidence and win another one.
Sobleski: Saints ( 5.5)
This selection is purely a taking-the-points play when two bad teams meet one another.
Granted, Miami has won three of its last four games, and it's coming off a bye week. But there's an opportunity for Tyler Shough to bounce back during the upcoming contest against a mediocre defense.
The idea of banking on a rookie quarterback's roller-coaster season may be flimsy, but it speaks to a lack of trust in the Dolphins.
Predictions
Saints: Sobleski
Dolphins: Gagnon, Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) at Tennessee Titans (1-10)
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Davenport: Jaguars (-6.5)
Laying almost a touchdown on the road with the Jaguars is icky, even with the team sitting at 7-4 and the Titans sporting the NFL's worst record.
However, Tennessee is 26th in the league in total defense and 29th in scoring defense. Last in the league in total offense. Also, 30th in scoring offense. And rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been sacked more times than any quarterback in the league.
Maybe it's not so icky after all.
Sobleski: Titans ( 6.5)
Since the Jaguars' Week 8 bye, Jacksonville has 1.) won a game because of a failed two-point conversion, 2.) got throttled by a divisional rival in the second half, 3.) dominated the Los Angeles Chargers and 4.) won in overtime against the Arizona Cardinals.
The point being, the Jags are far too unpredictable and inconsistent. This team may be 7-4 and one game behind in the AFC South standings, but it's far from playing well. The Titans, meanwhile, have lost their last three games by an average of five points.
So, let's take the points.
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Moton
Titans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Arizona Cardinals (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
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Davenport: Cardinals ( 2.5)
The Cardinals have struggled, with only one win since September, including a loss to the Tennessee Titans.
However, after dropping three straight and four of five, the Buccaneers are in real trouble. The injuries are becoming too much to bear, and with the Carolina Panthers losing in Week 12 and facing the same Rams team that just obliterated the Buccaneers, Tampa will likely play it safe with Baker Mayfield's bad left shoulder.
Arizona's backup quarterback has shown he can move the ball, but Tampa's hasn't.
The Cardinals end their losing streak—and the NFC South looks that much worse.
Hanford: Buccaneers (-2.5)
I'm backing Tampa Bay here even with the chance of Mayfield sitting this one out.
The magic has worn off for the Bucs after their hot start, but this Cardinals team isn't good and seems to be getting worse.
Tampa's last three games have come against opponents with a combined record of 26-8, so playing a three-win Cardinals team should feel like a welcome change.
Add the fact that it looks like Bucky Irving is going to make his long-awaited return to the field, and I think the Buccaneers right the ship with a huge win for their playoff hopes.
Predictions
Cardinals: Davenport, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Buccaneers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Atlanta Falcons (4-7) at New York Jets (2-9)
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Knox: Falcons (-2.5)
Honestly, I don't have a ton of faith in Atlanta's willingness to take a run-first approach in this matchup, but I do expect the Falcons to win if they stick to it.
I trust Kirk Cousins to play the game-manager role against a defense that has just one takeaway on the season.
It will be close, but I expect Atlanta to win the turnover battle and the game.
O'Donnell: Jets ( 2.5)
Plain and simple, I'm never backing the Cousins-led Falcons as a road favorite, let alone favorites at all. I expect all sorts of weirdness in this one and will opt for home points because of it.
Predictions
Falcons: Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Jets: Gagnon, Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell
Minnesota Vikings (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
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Davenport: Seahawks (-10.5)
This pick can be summed up in two words: Max Brosmer.
He isn't a randomly generated Madden character, although he rather sounds like one. He is an undrafted rookie who spent five seasons at New Hampshire before transferring to the Minnesota Golden Gophers in 2024.
Unless J.J. McCarthy can clear concussion protocol, Brosmer will make his first NFL start in one of the most hostile road environments against the league's seventh-ranked defense in both yards and points allowed.
The real kicker? If McCarthy plays, the Vikings may be even worse off.
Knox: Seahawks (-10.5)
It looks like we're all on the Seahawks, and there's a good reason for that: Minnesota's offensive line is a liability and is about to face the buzzsaw that is Seattle.
Whether the Vikings have McCarthy or Brosmer behind center, this is a potentially calamitous situation for them. However, that doesn't mean Minnesota can't cover.
If the Vikings can consistently get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they can keep things relatively close on the scoreboard.
If Sam Darnold has another four-interception day—and his former employer will know how to make him uncomfortable—the Seahawks may find themselves in trap-game territory.
Predictions
Seahawks: Gagnon, Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Buffalo Bills (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
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Gagnon: Steelers ( 3.5)
I have the Bills winning this, but by a field goal, so it's all about that hook.
Buffalo has suffered road losses to Atlanta, Houston and Miami in the last seven weeks, and the Steelers put up a good fight in Chicago last week.
The Steelers have the defensive playmaking ability to take advantage of a sloppy-of-late Bills offense and keep this close.
Hanford: Bills (-3.5)
I run the risk of getting bit by another hook here, but I just can't see a world where an angry and frustrated Bills team doesn't come in and hang points on a bad Steelers defense.
Maybe the Steelers are able to pressure Josh Allen as Houston did last Thursday, but the Pittsburgh defense doesn't have the speed, physicality or coaching that allow a duo like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to put Allen on the ground repeatedly.
The Bills have their warts, but their receiving core is built for the quick game that has been Pittsburgh's Achilles' heel all year.
Even if Aaron Rodgers is back, I don't see the firepower to attack Buffalo's shaky defense. Bills by a touchdown.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Steelers: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
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Hanford: Raiders ( 10)
This one is fairly simple for me. Ten points is a huge spread in a game where I'm not sure we see 30 points scored total.
These are the two worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Chargers have more weapons to exploit the Raiders on defense, but Jim Harbaugh's team also has no issue with winning ugly, and that's what I'm expecting here.
This one feels like it'll be something like 17-10, Chargers in a clunker.
Moton: Chargers (-10)
The Raiders fired Chip Kelly, and head coach Pete Carroll announced Greg Olson will call plays. Though Kelly's offense ranked 31st in scoring through 12 weeks, relieving him of his duties won't fix a below-average offensive line.
Left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson are out with ankle injuries. Stone Forsythe and a combination of Jordan Meredith, Will Putnam and Alex Cappa have filled those spots, respectively.
Coming off a bye week, the Chargers are tied for 10th in sacks with 27. Olson won't be able to coach around the league's worst offensive line (yes, worse than the Chargers' line).
Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack will have a sack party in a blowout victory.
Predictions
Raiders: Gagnon, Hanford
Chargers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Denver Broncos (9-2) at Washington Commanders (3-8)
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Gagnon: Commanders ( 6.5)
Even without Jayden Daniels for Washington, I view this as a field-goal game.
Both teams have had an extra week to prepare, so both should be crisp.
Six of Denver's last seven games have been decided by four points or fewer, and I expect this to follow that pattern.
O'Donnell: Broncos (-6.5)
Sean Payton has a strong track record of post-bye week success at 12-3 with a 2-0 record as the Broncos coach. Denver has only beaten three teams by 6.5 or more this season, and none of those games were on the road. It's time to change that.
Washington is also coming off a bye after losing six straight, with four being total blowouts.
If the Broncos offense wants to prove it can carry its own water, this is the week to do it.
Predictions
Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Commanders: Gagnon
New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)
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Gagnon: Giants ( 7.5)
I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Patriots after they survived by the skin of their teeth against Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati in November.
This team has played above its head, but now it runs into an old nemesis that is punchy and has nothing to lose. Meanwhile, the Patriots will be down the left side of their offensive line.
It's been nearly a month since the Giants last lost by more than a touchdown, so this is just too many points.
O'Donnell: Patriots (-7.5)
We don't know if Jaxson Dart will be on the field for Big Blue, but he was close to playing a week ago, so the odds are better than not. That said, a road prime-time trip to Foxborough is not the most welcoming of return scenarios.
Despite New York punching above its weight time and again this year—and then blowing those leads in the final quarter—this Patriots team looks like the type that can take an early lead and not let go.
If the tables are turned the way I think, with New York not jumping out to that somewhat-accustomed-to-now early lead, New England is playing the type of ball to cover this and then some.
Predictions
Giants: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Patriots: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell
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