Johnny Cueto vs. Cole Hamels: Who Is Premier Ace on 2015 Trade Market?

The first domino has fallen. The snowball has started rolling. The door is cracked open. The MLB trade season officially began Thursday when the Oakland A’s traded Scott Kazmir to the Houston Astros for promising prospects Daniel Mengden (right-hander) and Jacob Nottingham (catcher). With that move, the market for starting pitchers was set, and negotiations for other coveted arms gained a baseline.

Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cole Hamels has been the most talked-about ace on the market for a full calendar year now, going back to the last non-waiver trade deadline. Since then, Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto has become the most discussed free-agent-to-be on the market and probably the best available before the Detroit Tigers started to tentatively dangle David Price over the market this week.

We know the Reds will certainly move Cueto, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal noted Wednesday on the MLB Network. Meanwhile, the Phillies are not under any mandate to trade Hamels, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, so he might not be dealt at all if the front office does not like the return offers.

Still, those two have been the two faces of the trade market since the start of the season. Both are legitimate aces, both come with some concerns and both must be traded by the July 31 deadline, or at least common sense says as much. So a week before then seems like the perfect time to compare them side by side.

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The Numbers

Over the last four seasons before this one, Hamels and Cueto compare favorably. Hamels had a 2.99 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.95 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 128 ERA-plus. Cueto had a 2.48 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 156 ERA-plus. 

Both have produced quality results but also red flags through the first half of this season and into the second. Cueto has a 2.79 ERA, which will be his fourth consecutive sub-3.00 ERA if it holds up, a 3.16 FIP, a 4.11 K/BB ratio and a 137 ERA-plus. He has not been as strong lately, but that will be addressed later in this space.

Hamels has a 3.91 ERA, his highest since 2009, a 3.37 FIP, his highest since 2010, a 3.35 K/BB ratio and a 96 ERA-plus. Like Cueto, there have been reasons to look at Hamels with a skeptical eye, as he has not produced positive results in his last two turns.

Concerns

Hamels has completed only three innings in each of his last two starts—3.1 innings July 10 and three Sunday—and he’s allowed nine and five earned runs in those outings, respectively.

There are no injury concerns with Hamels, despite those lousy outings. Some scouts believe the weight of the trade rumors has engulfed him over the last year, while the grind of pitching for a terrible team for more than a season-and-a-half may have also taken its toll. 

“He looks fine,” one AL scout told CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman after his last start. "It was 100 degrees. He's playing for a miserable team. And it may be hard to get motivated."

Only twice in Cueto’s last six starts has he pitched beyond six innings, and in his last outing on Sunday, he lasted only four while walking six and striking out two. Over his last two starts, Cueto has only four strikeouts.

This has obviously caused concern among teams interested in the right-hander. ESPN's Jayson Stark relayed a comment from one of those teams:

"

Asked an exec of a team interested in Johnny Cueto if they saw anything to be alarmed about in his start Sunday. He said: "Yes. Everything."

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 21, 2015"

Cueto also has injury concerns. He has dealt with elbow stiffness and discomfort since spring training, and he missed two starts in May because of it.

Cueto and Hamels are both scheduled to pitch on Saturday. Those starts could go a long way in alleviating their suitors' concerns. If either or both have another poor outing, their teams could suffer for it in terms of potential return packages at the deadline.

Expected Costs and Demand

The suitors are plenty for both pitchers.

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Cueto has been tracked for weeks by several teams, including the Astros before they traded for Kazmir. With them out of the mix, the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays remain as the “logical landing spots” for Cueto, according to Heyman.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

As for Hamels, the same teams with the exception of the Yankees—they won’t gut their newly rebuilt farm system for Hamels—and the addition of the Chicago Cubs have shown varying degrees of interest.

Those teams are in great need of rotation help, but it appears only the Dodgers and Cubs would have both the payroll flexibility and prospects to seriously consider Hamels. The Boston Red Sox also fit that mold, but considering they are quickly falling out of contention, they're more likely to trade for Hamels in the offseason if he is still with the Phillies. 

Considering what the A’s got for Kazmir, Cueto could cost a team one high-level prospect, since he is seen as a better pitcher than Kazmir. However, his price drops from what it might have been last year if he were headed to free agency, because the acquiring team can no longer gain a draft pick for him if he signs elsewhere during the offseason.

Hamels’ price tag is still huge. He will likely cost some team a large haul of prospects and/or young major league talent. He also comes with three years and roughly $81.5 million in salary attached, with about $8 million owed to him from August to the end of the season and a $6 million buyout at the end of his current contract, which also has an option for a fourth year.

Common sense would tell you that Hamels’ value will drop after the deadline since so many top-flight starters will be available in free agency after the season. But the Phillies don’t see it that way. They believe Hamels is signed to a below-market-value deal that no team will be able to duplicate in the free-agent market.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed Hamels' value with Todd Zolecki of MLB.com:

"

You think anybody is going to sign a three, plus one of the ilk of Hamels? Do you think Price will do a three-year deal? I would think not, based on what the marketplace has done for some other guys. You're looking at five, six, seven, eight years. What did [Clayton] Kershaw get? Seven years? We have a contract that is locked in at three, plus one.

"

Once again, that could be Amaro believing his hand is stronger than it actually is.

“The Phillies want yesteryear's prices,” one executive told Stark, “and teams don't make those deals anymore.”

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Overall Value

Hamels is truly an ace signed to a team-friendly contract in the game’s current economic climate. Trading for him not only adds a front-line starter this season, it gives a team one for at least three more seasons, assuming Hamels continues to pitch like one.

Then again, it's realistic to think some teams would value their top-tier prospects more than Hamels’ below-market contract, especially when the offseason will be ripe with top-of-the-rotation arms.

Cueto will cost less in terms of prospects, and negotiations with the Reds could be much easier than they might be with Philadelphia, but Cueto is also a true rental for most clubs. He will be a free agent after the season, and now that teams cannot get draft compensation for him, his value has lowered.

While Hamels will cost a hefty haul, he is proven. Prospects are not. And because he is an ace with a below-market salary for the next few years, he is the prize of the trade market while Cueto slides in somewhere behind him, and possibly Price.

Watching all this play out over the next week will be one of the most exciting parts of the regular season, one that could drastically change by the minute. Try not to blink.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.