NFL Playoff Picture 2025-26, Standings, Bracket Scenarios After Bills vs. Texans

The Houston Texans moved one step closer to the wild-card positions in the AFC with their Thursday night win over the Buffalo Bills.

Houston moved up to 6-5, a half-game out of the No. 7 seed currently occupied by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Texans, who are on a three-game winning streak, can wreak all sorts of havoc in the final six weeks of the regular season because of their schedule.

The AFC South side still has to play the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts twice.

Buffalo is still in a playoff position for now, but at 7-4, it doesn't look like a complete and total lock to make the postseason.

AFC Standings

AP Photo

Division Leaders

Denver (9-2)

New England (9-2)

Indianapolis (8-2)

Pittsburgh (6-4)

Wild-Card Race

Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

Buffalo (7-4)

Jacksonville (6-4)

Houston (6-5)

Kansas City (5-5)

Baltimore (5-5)

Miami (4-7)

Cincinnati (3-7)

Las Vegas (2-8)

New York Jets (2-8)

Cleveland (2-8)

Tennessee (1-9)

Houston is charging up the AFC standings.

The Texans are a half-game behind Jacksonville for the last wild-card spot with a lot of room left to pick up significant head-to-head tiebreakers.

Houston split with Jacksonville and beat Buffalo and the Baltimore Ravens. Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers are still on the Texans' schedule.

In their best-case scenario, the Texans could have a 4-1 record over some of the closest competitors for a wild-card position.

Houston also has an outside chance to claim the AFC South because it plays Indianapolis in Weeks 13 and 18.

Kansas City hosts the Colts on Sunday in a game the Chiefs must win to bolster their own postseason hopes. A Chiefs win would help Houston's chase of the divisional crown.

Jacksonville should win in Arizona, while the Chargers are off. The Bills could end the weekend in seventh place if the Jags win.

Buffalo has a easy enough schedule that should allow it to make the postseason, but it would feel more comfortable if it beat either the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 or the New England Patriots in Week 15 or both.

NFC Standings

AP Photo

Division Leaders

Philadelphia (8-2)

Los Angeles Rams (8-2)

Chicago (7-3)

Tampa Bay (6-4)

Wild-Card Race

Seattle (7-3)

Green Bay (6-3-1)

San Francisco (7-4)

Detroit (6-4)

Carolina (6-5)

Dallas (4-5-1)

Minnesota (4-6)

Arizona (3-7)

Atlanta (3-7)

Washington (3-8)

New Orleans (2-8)

New York Giants (2-9)

The next two primetime games will shine a light on the NFC playoff race.

The NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. The Carolina Panthers visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.

Carolina could cause a huge swing in the standings with a win in the Bay Area and a Tampa Bay loss. That would put the Panthers in front in the NFC South.

Carolina and Tampa Bay still play twice in Weeks 16 and 18, so any shift in the standings this week could be temporary.

The 49ers can being to create distance in the wild-card race if they beat the Panthers. Only five teams enter Week 12 with a realistic chance to claim a wild-card spot. Carolina can't be eliminated, but if San Francisco picks up a key head-to-head win, it will create a larger gap.

The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings need wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers to move closer to .500. A Minnesota win seems more likely given the current state of Green Bay's offense.