.jpeg?w=1280 "Colts QB Daniel Jones (left) and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (right)")
2025 NFL Week 12 Expert Picks
Following a slate with several marquee matchups, NFL bettors will see three double-digit spreads on the Week 12 schedule.
If you're riding the underdog wave from the previous weekend—eight covered last Sunday—you'll love the points for the upcoming games.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell usually love points, but that may not be the case for most of our experts this week.
As powerhouse squads jockey for playoff position, our panel took momentum and the quality of their opponents into heavy consideration.
Yet there's a lurking lone wolf who couldn't stay away from the points for a couple of the games with a massive spread.
Before you check out the dueling picks for each of the Week 12 matchups, keep an eye on Gagnon in the standings. Over the past month, he's climbed from the bottom into a tie for fourth place and is six games above .500.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 90-74
2. Knox: 88-76
3. Hanford: 87-77
T-4. O'Donnell: 85-79
T-4. Gagnon: 85-79
6. Sobleski: 80-84
7. Davenport: 73-91
Lone Wolf Picks: 15-15
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Nov. 18, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)
1 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Buccaneers Bills Football")
Gagnon: Texans ( 5.5)
Houston's defense has been killing it, and the Texans really need this. They're at home, and the Bills are traveling while banged-up on short rest. Buffalo's shoddy run defense should allow the Texans to control the pace to an extent as they keep this one close.
Hanford: Bills (-5.5)
There are more reasons to pick Houston to cover here than there are to back Buffalo, but I'm choosing to ride with Josh Allen. The Texans' defense has been dominant all season, but the Bills quarterback will be its toughest task yet.
The Bills haven't been able to stop anyone defensively, especially on the ground, but I'm not sure I see Woody Marks and the Texans' ground attack exploiting that consistently.
Davis Mills will be under center again on a short week for the injured C.J. Stroud, and I like Buffalo's pass defense to make enough plays to give its team a seven-point win as Allen stays undefeated for his career on Thursday Night Football.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Texans: Gagnon, Moton
New England Patriots (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
2 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Jets Patriots Football")
Hanford: Bengals ( 8.5)
Ja'Marr Chase is suspended. Joe Burrow isn't back quite yet. The Patriots are arguably the hottest team in the league, led by a bona fide MVP candidate and haven't lost on the road yet this season.
However, even with Chase out, Joe Flacco could have room to operate against a New England pass defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards given up.
On top of that, star defensive tackle Milton Williams will miss this one with an injury, which should open things up for Chase Brown. New England will win this one, but it's by a touchdown or less in a game with sneaky shootout potential.
Knox: Patriots (-8.5)
This is a larger line than I'd prefer for a road favorite, but I have a hard time believing Cincinnati will be much more competitive than it was in last week's disaster.
Yes, the Bengals will have home-field advantage, but they won't have their best offensive player, which is a massive problem against a red-hot team coming out of a mini-bye.
Predictions
Patriots: Davenport, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell
New York Giants (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
3 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Lions Eagles Football")
Davenport: Lions (-10.5)
It's a little surprising this spread isn't bigger. The Lions are an angry team with Super Bowl aspirations in third place in their division after an ugly loss in Philadelphia. The Giants are a coach-less team in last place in their division because they are woeful.
The Lions are 3-1 at Ford Field, with an average margin of victory of 23 plus change. The G-Men are allowing just under 150 yards per game on the ground and a league-high 5.5 yards per carry.
This is a woodshed game—and the Giants are getting dragged behind it.
O'Donnell: Lions (-10.5)
It's pretty straightforward here: The Lions are 3-0 ATS after a loss this season. Detroit's post-loss victories have been by an average margin of 22 points. We don't know Jaxson Dart's status at the time of writing, but even if the rookie suits up, this is not an ideal matchup on the road.
The Lions get right in a big way ahead of their Thanksgiving showdown with the Packers next Thursday.
Predictions
Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
.jpg?w=256 "Rams Eagles Football")
New York Jets (2-8) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
4 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Ravens Browns Football")
Davenport: Jets ( 13.5)
The Ravens are one of the hottest teams in the AFC, and the other contenders in that conference are hearing footsteps. The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Baltimore's offense hasn't exactly fired on all cylinders of late, though, and with Tyrod Taylor under center, the Jets may even complete a few forward passes.
The Ravens are in no danger of losing this game, but an early lead turning into a back-door cover is a real possibility.
Moton: Ravens (-13.5)
As noted last week, the Jets will begin to see the wheels fall off amid a mostly competitive season.
Taylor is set to start in place of Fields, who struggled mightily coming out of the team's Week 9 bye, throwing for 170 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in two games.
Though Fields isn't an NFL-caliber pocket-passer, he provided another dimension to the offense with his legs, something Taylor can't emulate at this stage of his career.
Without star wide receiver Garrett Wilson or the threat of the quarterback breaking out for 20-plus-yard gains on the ground, the Ravens should be able to shut down the Jets offense while they pile on points in their first home game in about a month.
Predictions
Jets: Davenport
Ravens: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-9)
5 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Seahawks Rams Football")
Gagnon: Seahawks (-13.5)
The Seahawks finally lost a road game. If anything, though, that defeat at the hands of the Rams has me more confident they'll bounce back with a no-doubter in Tennessee.
The odds of a strong road team struggling here are low, and the Titans are due for another blowout loss after consecutive close games against the Chargers and Texans.
Sobleski: Titans ( 13.5)
A Titans pick here isn't a knee-jerk reaction after Sam Darnold threw four interceptions last weekend. Instead, it's a vote of confidence in Tennessee despite the squad's 1-9 record.
Over the last two weeks, the Titans lost by an average of five points. Tennessee's best player, Jeffery Simmons, is back in the lineup, which helps boost a defense that can slow Seattle to a degree.
Furthermore, rookie quarterback Cam Ward has played better as of late. When a near-two-touchdown point spread is thrown into the mix, Tennessee just might have something here.
Predictions
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Titans: Sobleski
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
6 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Chiefs Broncos Football")
Knox: Chiefs (-3.5)
This is shaping up to be the most must-win game of the Chiefs' season thus far. For as bad as Patrick Mahomes and Co. have looked at times, I have a hard time picking against a desperate Kansas City team in Arrowhead.
I could easily see the Colts winning a rematch in the postseason, but Steve Spagnuolo's defense will force Daniel Jones into just enough mistakes to cover here.
Sobleski: Colts ( 3.5)
The Chiefs barely getting a home-field advantage regarding the spread says a lot about where they sit after losing back-to-back games against the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. Mahomes and Co. simply haven't played well.
The Colts have the added advantage of extra preparation coming off their bye week. Head coach Shane Steichen is already one of the league's best at devising an offensive game plan. He'll surely have a few play designs up his sleeve to confuse the Chiefs and get the Colts cooking.
Predictions
Colts: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski
Chiefs: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
7 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Packers Giants Football")
Davenport: Vikings ( 6.5)
It's not easy for anyone with eyes to get excited about Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy—of 35 qualifying players at Pro Football Reference, he is dead-last in on-target percentage.
However, the Vikings have a tendency to hang around in games, and while the Packers are 6-3-1, they have lost two straight at home, are all kinds of banged up offensively and are just 3-7 ATS on the season.
The Packers may well gut out an ugly win here, but covering a spread this big is another matter.
Hanford: Packers (-6.5)
I get the feeling the Vikings are about to fall off a cliff following two painful home losses in a row. Now, they have to travel to Green Bay. The Packers defense should go to town on a struggling McCarthy.
Predictions
Vikings: Davenport, Hanford, Moton
Packers: Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)
8 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Bears Vikings Football")
Hanford: Bears (-3)
Even if Aaron Rodgers was healthy, I'd be taking the Bears here. The Steelers' offense has struggled even with its starter under center, and that won't get easier against a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways and interceptions.
Pittsburgh's defense wants to generate pressure, but the Bears have protected Caleb Williams well this year, and the secondary struggles when the front seven can't get home.
Whether it's Rodgers or Mason Rudolph, I don't see the Steelers making enough plays as Chicago leans on its strong running game to grind out a win at home.
O'Donnell: Steelers ( 3)
I'll probably regret this lone-wolf pick, but I cannot shake the Bears' nonsensical last-minute victories. There's certainly something to be said about winning close games, and they just keep finding ways to win. I have to give them that.
Go ahead and win by two again. I'll take the points.
Predictions
Steelers: O'Donnell
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
9 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Chargers Jaguars Football")
Moton: Jaguars (-2.5)
When you side with the Jacksonville Jaguars, you must consider Trevor Lawrence's tendency to turn the ball over in a mixed-bag performance.
Over the last three weeks, he's thrown three interceptions and lost a fumble. At any point, Jacksonville can lose momentum because of its quarterback's mistakes.
However, Jacksonville will face a directionless Arizona Cardinals squad that's lost seven of its last eight games.
Also, Arizona will be without wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., who's recovering from surgery for appendicitis.
The Jaguars maintain their post-bye offensive momentum with another high-scoring output. They're averaging 31.3 points over the last three weeks and shouldn't have a problem winning this matchup by at least a touchdown.
O'Donnell: Cardinals ( 2.5)
Nope, there is no way I am getting baited by the Jags ever again. The Cardinals have plenty of issues, but this is more about my distrust in a traveling Jacksonville team. Give me the points.
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton,
Cardinals: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cleveland Browns (2-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
10 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Ravens Browns Football")
Moton: Raiders (-3)
This matchup could be an offensive pillow fight between two of the league's bottom-four scoring attacks.
The Cleveland Browns field a stingy defense, though it struggles away from home, giving up an average of 29.7 points on the road compared to just 14 at Huntington Bank Field.
Furthermore, the Raiders have more offensive playmakers, with All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty leading a young core of skill players.
They won't run up the score on the Browns, but Maxx Crosby and his defensive linemates will make it difficult for Shedeur Sanders in his first career start, giving the Silver and Black enough cushion to win by more than a field goal.
Sobleski: Browns ( 3)
The Raiders' offensive line is a disaster. Las Vegas can't run the ball, and Geno Smith has little chance when he drops back to pass. What's going to happen when that group hosts Myles Garrett? The NFL's leader in sacks is going to beat blocks faster than anyone shovels turkey down their gullet a fews days later.
With Sanders expected to start his first game, the Raiders defense has to be licking its chops, too. However, the difference between this past weekend and the upcoming game centers squarely on the Colorado product getting time to properly prepare and see what he can really do.
Predictions
Browns: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Raiders: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton
Atlanta Falcons (3-7) at New Orleans Saints (2-8)
11 of 14.jpg?w=684 "APTOPIX Panthers Falcons Football")
Hanford: Falcons ( 1.5)
I'm always a believer in the one-game bump when a team changes QBs, and that definitely applies here.
Kirk Cousins may not have entered the year as the starter, but I'm not sure he's not better than Michael Penix Jr.
Cousins will have to operate without an injured Drake London, but he still has arguably the league's best running-back duo to work with.
Tyler Shough has been better than expected this season, but the Falcons' pass defense has been stellar this season, outside of Bryce Young's 400-plus yard performance last week.
I'm expecting Cousins to come out with something to prove and lead the Falcons to an important road win.
Sobleski: Saints (-1.5)
This pick is a roll of the dice assuming Shough is going to look more like the version that showed up in his second NFL start rather than his first. He looked legit against the Carolina Panthers in Week 10.
Now, the first-year signal-caller has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off back-to-back overtime losses. They'll be without Penix and the defense is no longer playing well, having surrendered over 30 points in three of their last four games.
Predictions
Falcons: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Saints: Sobleski
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
12 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Cowboys Raiders Football")
Knox: Cowboys ( 3.5)
The Dallas defense looked respectable on Monday night, but the Raiders have been bad enough that the performance must be taken with a grain of salt. The Eagles offense has looked out of sync in recent weeks, but their defense has been dominant.
I think the team that makes the most silly mistakes loses. I'd usually jump on that team being the Cowboys, but Nick Sirianni has made some questionable calls recently.
If nothing else, Dallas keeps it closer than it did in Week 1, which was a four-point home win for Philly.
O'Donnell: Eagles (-3.5)
I almost circled Cowboys. Almost. But the Eagles defense has figured itself out, and this will be a great test when Dallas has the ball. If the Eagles are going to start figuring it out offensively, though, they need to get rolling now.
The Cowboys defense has improved from the mess it was early in the year, but it's time for Philly's stars to wake up.
Star power means points, and I'm banking on a star-studded show for once, and that'll be enough to cover and then some.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell
Cowboys: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
13 of 14.jpg?w=684 "Buccaneers Bills Football")
Gagnon: Buccaneers ( 6.5)
This is an anti-trend pick. Even if the Bucs do lose a third consecutive game, they're an experienced and savvy team that is likely to put up a big fight in Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, the Rams have won five in a row but cut it close a week ago against Seattle. This could be the moment when a more desperate squad shocks them.
At the very least, I think it's a close game.
Knox: Rams (-6.5)
I keep expecting the Buccaneers to break out of their yearly in-season slump, and they keep telling me no. I think they'll lose their third straight here before a favorable stretch that might not see them lose another regular-season game.
I could see Tampa winning this matchup in the playoffs, if healthy, too. I just think the Bucs are still too banged-up to keep this one within a touchdown—especially if the defense ends up without both Haason Reddick and Jamel Dean.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Rams: Knox, Sobleski
Carolina Panthers (6-5) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
14 of 14.jpg?w=684 "49ers Cardinals Football")
Davenport: Panthers ( 7)
That the Panthers are 6-5 after 11 weeks is one of the more surprising records in the league this year. But here's an even bigger surprise: Carolina is 7-4 against the spread.
While the 49ers have impressed with their resilience in the face of a never-ending onslaught of injuries, the team has the third-worst defensive success rate in the league. The Niners have allowed 306 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns per game with a completion percentage against north of 75 percent over the last month.
Bryce Young keeps this one close.
Moton: 49ers (-7)
At 6-5, the Panthers look like a team that's on the rise, but they're pretenders. Sure, they went on the road to beat the Green Bay Packers, who have struggled offensively, and swept their season series with the three-win Atlanta Falcons. However, San Francisco is a team with an established offensive identity.
Expect Christian McCaffrey to post gaudy rushing numbers in the first game against his former team.
The Panthers have allowed an average of 149 rushing yards over the last four weeks. Don't be surprised if McCaffrey surpasses that number in the bright lights of Monday Night Football.
Predictions
Panthers: Davenport, Sobleski
49ers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
21 . NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
.jpg?w=480 "Rams Eagles Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Cowboys Giants Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Rodgers to Visit Steelers")
