MLB Trade Rumors: Analyzing Buzz Around David Price, Johnny Cueto and More

Looking at the Major League Baseball trade landscape with one week to go before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, the two things that stand out are how much pitching is available and how difficult it is to parse out the real buyers. 

One quick glance at the standings reveals that 18 teams are within five games of a playoff spot, but five teams in the American League bunch are under .500.

It's also interesting that pitching is dominating trade discussions considering the decline in offense remains a huge story. Per Baseball-Reference.com, the average game features 4.10 runs per game, which is only a slight increase from last year's 4.07 mark. 

The dominance of pitching does make it essential to have a strong lineup in October, but there's no denying the importance of having a dominant arm in the rotation. Just look at Madison Bumgarner's importance to San Francisco last year, as an example. 

As the trade winds start to pick up, here's the latest chatter with information on three top arms who could be on the move soon. 

David Price from AL Central to NL Central?

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The Detroit Tigers are facing a crucial transition period soon. Justin Verlander has been a disaster with a 6.62 ERA in 2015 and is still owed $112 million from 2016 to 2019. Miguel Cabrera landed on the disabled list for the first time. 

David Price is the best active player on Detroit's roster, but he's set to become a free agent at the end of this season. He's going to cash in with a long-term deal for the first time in his career this winter, but that leaves the 47-47 Tigers in a precarious position. 

Given the age and expensive contracts in place for the Tigers, dealing Price would make a lot of sense. Whether it happens depends on finding a partner willing to pay what should be a steep price and Detroit's front office admitting this season is lost. 

The second part remains a mystery, though CBS Chicago's Bruce Levine reported an interested partner in playoff contention has emerged:

"

The Chicago Cubs wasted little time this week reacting to the sudden availability of left-handed ace David Price, according to multiple sources.

Like sharks in a fish tank, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were among the first to inquire about Price.

"

The Cubs make sense for any team trying to get young, impact talent to talk to about trades. No team has as much of it on the roster right now, though that's the paradox of the situation in Chicago. 

Because the Cubs have called up virtually all of their top position-player prospects already—Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler—there's not a lot left for the team to part with. 

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Javier Baez should be the first name teams ask about, though he's currently on the disabled list in Triple-A. 

Plus, the Cubs also have to weigh what they want to give up for a rental player. John Arguello of Chicago Now wrote about that very conundrum facing the team's front office.

"I do not like to speak in such definitive terms, as you well know by now, but I've heard some buzz recently regarding the Cubs' deadline plans, and my understanding is that they are focused on cost control and not costly one-year rentals," Arguello wrote. 

That makes sense for a team with as many cost-controlled assets as the Cubs have. It's easy to understand the desire for fans, especially with this franchise's title drought, that it's best to mortgage some of the future for now because it's easy for young players to fall apart. 

Price would certainly represent an upgrade over anyone in Chicago's rotation. Here's how his numbers stack up compared to Cubs ace Jon Lester in 2015:

Player	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	K/9 IP	K-BB
Price	2.32	1.114	169	8.7	4.88
Lester	3.37	1.207	111	8.9	3.74

The Cubs are three games behind Pittsburgh for the top wild-card spot and a half-game ahead of San Francisco. They could make the playoffs without making a move but have the chance to elevate themselves into elite territory with an impact starting pitcher. 

It's just the case of weighing now versus the future. For the first time in a long time, it's OK to say wait until next year in Chicago. 

AL's Best Looking at Cueto

Looking at the Kansas City Royals' starting rotation right now, it's hard to fathom how this team has the second-best record in baseball (57-36). Jason Vargas can't stay healthy; Yordano Ventura was recalled from Triple-A because of Vargas' latest injury, but he sports a 5.19 ERA; and Edinson Volquez and Chris Young have been resurrected from the dead. 

As great as the Royals defense is and how much better hitters such as Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain have looked, finding an impact starter should be at the top of this team's summer wish list. 

According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Royals currently have eyes on multiple starters as the deadline nears:

Cueto's trade value is fascinating, even in a marketplace that could include Price. Cincinnati absolutely should deal him now because the team isn't making the playoffs and can't afford to re-sign him this winter. 

But how do teams really value Cueto, who had two Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2012 and 2014 coupled with two years in which he made 35 total starts in 2011 and 2013? 

Cueto has had starts moved around this season because of elbow issues, including one instance in May when he had an MRI that revealed no damage. His last two starts haven't been good with 11 hits, seven runs (five earned), seven walks and four strikeouts in nine innings. 

Combining the elbow issues, even if they were just cautionary measures being taken, and recent bad performances, the Reds wouldn't seem to have a lot of negotiating leverage in trade discussions with teams. 

That certainly helps a team such as Kansas City, which isn't likely to part with two of its top prospects in a deal since it's made it this deep into a season with a messy rotation and still leads the American League Central by 7.5 games. 

So, What's Baltimore Doing with Gausman?

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Kevin Gausman's time in the big leagues with Baltimore has been disappointing. He's pitched primarily out of the bullpen with inconsistent results, but the 24-year-old doesn't lack for impact talent. 

Perhaps the Orioles are hoping to cash in on whatever value Gausman still has, based on this report from ESPN's Buster Olney:

To be fair, Orioles manager Buck Showalter responded to the rumors about Gausman's availability during an appearance on MLB Network Radio:

Showalter won't come out to say Gausman is available because it would hurt Baltimore's negotiating leverage, though it would make sense if the team tried to put out some feelers.

There are 29 other teams that would love to take a shot on a player as young as Gausman who is just three years removed from being the fourth overall pick and still has a power arsenal with a fastball that averages 95.6 mph, per FanGraphs. 

This brings things back to the Orioles, whose handling of Gausman has been baffling to this point. Bringing him up to pitch mostly out of the bullpen in 2013 made sense. He was still being stretched out to the point where he could handle a starter's workload. 

Yet everything that's happened since then indicates something is off between what made Gausman such a high pick and what the Orioles want him to become. 

ESPN's Keith Law wrote about Gausman and the Orioles' possible plan for the young right-hander prior to the 2014 season, noting a role in the bullpen wouldn't be a bad idea if he could do it in a nontraditional way.

"You'll see Kevin Gausman in the big leagues quite a bit this year in the rotation or the pen; I wouldn't mind seeing him break back in as a reliever but only if that means longer outings where he can continue to develop his slider," Law wrote. 

Sure enough, Gausman has barely used his slider as a reliever the last two years. 

Pitch (2014)	Percentage Used	Velocity (mph)
Pitch (2015)	Percentage Used	Velocity (mph)
Fastball	70.5	94.8
Split-Finger	18.6	83.1
Slider	7.2	79.9
Changeup	3.7	84.7
Fastball	71.7	95.6
Split-Finger	18.1	85.1
Slider	8.7	80.0
Changeup	1.5	86.9

Taking away a pitch that could potentially be a huge weapon for Gausman as a starting pitcher for most of the last two years is a big reason for his stunted development. He's trying to get by with power out of the bullpen instead of mixing speeds to keep hitters off balance. 

Gausman is under team control through 2020, so he would figure to cost a large ransom for a player with middling MLB results. The price could be worth it given how young he is, how cost-effective he would be and what he can still turn into. 

Sometimes, a change of scenery for young players works. The Orioles don't seem to have any kind of plan that takes advantage of Gausman's best attributes, so finding a deal that works for them would be the best for all involved.