7 MLB Free Agents With the Highest Bust Potential

Next Monday (Nov. 17) on B/R, our annual top 25 free agents with contract and team predictions will run.

While teams will talk themselves into free agents right now, the reality is that some of the players who appear on that list won't prove to be good investments. There are already real questions about some of the top free agents from last year's class, such as Corbin Burnes (No. 2), Anthony Santander (No. 8), Tanner Scott (No. 12), Christian Walker (No. 13) and Joc Pederson (No. 21), among others.

So without revealing our list just yet, we've decided to take a look at some of the candidates who either made this year's countdown or just missed out and have the potential to wind up being busts.

Munetaka Murakami

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There is a real boom-or-bust feel with Munetaka Murakami, a two-time Central League MVP that has been posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball team, the Yakult Swallows.

On one hand, Murakami hit 246 home runs and posted a .951 OPS in parts of eight NPB seasons, giving you an idea of the power ceiling that the 25-year-old has. Heck, he just hit 22 home runs in only 56 games this past season.

On the other hand, Murakami also struck out 64 times in 187 at-bats in 2025, a staggering rate. There's conflicting information on just how much he struggled, but Murakami did not fare well against velocity in 2025. And while he's a third baseman, he probably profiles more as a first baseman and/or DH in MLB.

If Murakami becomes a 40-home run guy who draws walks, teams will put up with 200 strikeouts and a .230 batting average. But his success at the MLB level does seem to be contingent on whether or not he can become a hitter that's in the top five in home runs and RBI each year.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

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We're currently waiting to see whether or not Woodruff accepts the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer from the Brewers. Based on the fact that a small-budget Milwaukee team extended it to him, it's fair to wonder if they are betting on him declining it, setting them up to receive draft-pick compensation if he leaves in free agency.

That would mean that not only would any team other than the Brewers who inks Woodruff to a deal have to give up dollars, but also 2026 draft capital.

Don't get it twisted, when he's healthy, he's the type of arm worth doing that for. Woodruff was an All-Star in both 2019 and 2021, finishing fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting in the latter campaign. He was also excellent across 12 starts in 2025, going 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 83 strikeouts.

The problem is that you just can't bank on the 32-year-old's availability based on his recent track record. He missed the entirety of the 2024 season recovering from right shoulder surgery. It took him until July to get back on the mound in 2025. And for as great as he was when he pitched, a right lat strain ended his season in mid-September.

Perhaps there will be a team that believes Woodruff is about to have a Charlie Morton-esque career path where he stays healthier and reaches his peak in his mid-30s. That's not normally how these things work, though. So giving Woodruff the multi-year deal he's likely going to want would be very risky.

Trent Grisham

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Even with the $22.025 million qualifying offer attached to him, Trent Grisham would be wise to strike in free agency this offseason, when he's coming off of a campaign where he hit 34 home runs, drew 82 walks and posted an .811 OPS.

That's because entering this year, Grisham had never hit more than 17 home runs in a season. He was coming off of a 2024 campaign that saw him hit .190 with a .675 OPS over 76 games, making him a non-tender candidate last offseason. Even though Grisham is only entering his age-29 season, there's just no way to be certain that this year won't prove to be an outlier offensively.

Perhaps even more concerning is that the two-time Gold Glove Award winner saw his defensive metrics in center field plummet in 2025. Coming into the season, Grisham had 26 career defensive runs saved, along with 33 outs above average. He finished this past year with minus-11 DRS and minus-two OAA. Maybe it was just one bad year, but if Grisham takes the QO and struggles again in center field, it will decrease his value because he is much more unique as a center fielder than a corner outfielder.

Given the lack of quality center fielders in the sport, someone will give Grisham a multi-year deal this winter, while surrendering draft-pick compensation to sign him as a qualified free agent. It won't be a risk-averse club.

Gleyber Torres

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Gleyber Torres was extended a qualifying offer by the Detroit Tigers, and unlike some of the other names on this list given a QO, he might be wise to take the $22.025 million for one season.

Torres was an All-Star for the Yankees in his first two seasons, 2018 and 2019. He seemed destined for superstardom when he hit 38 home runs in 2019, his age-22 season. However, he hasn't hit more than 25 home runs in a season since then.

Still, Torres joined the Tigers on a one-year, $15 million deal last offseason, and the change of scenery seemed to be beneficial for him when he started at second base and led off for the American League All-Star team.

However, Torres went into the tank after the Midsummer Classic, hitting just .223 with a .659 OPS. He also continues to grade out poorly defensively, finishing the season with minus-four defensive runs saved and minus-four outs above average.

Torres did have right sports hernia surgery after Detroit was eliminated from the playoffs, something that clearly contributed to his second-half swoon. Still, there are too many fluctuations in his performance to feel comfortable giving the soon-to-be 29-year-old a long-term deal, especially if he declines the QO.

Lucas Giolito

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It's been a whirlwind last three seasons for Lucas Giolito.

He had a nightmarish 2023 season split between three teams, the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians. That year, he posted a 4.88 ERA and gave up an AL-worst 41 home runs.

Giolito had been so good earlier in his carer, though, that the Red Sox still gambled and gave him a two-year, $38.5 million deal in free agency that offseason, which included the chance for him to opt out after 2024.

The former All-Star didn't wind up opting out because he missed all of 2024 after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his right elbow.

To his credit, Giolito returned to pitch very well in 2025 for the Red Sox, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA across 26 starts. The problem is that Giolito's elbow flared up in late September, knocking him out for the ALWCS.

He now says his elbow is 100 percent, and we're not saying that it isn't. The 31-year-old also doesn't have a qualifying offer attached to him, so signing him wouldn't require giving up draft-pick compensation. From here, though, there's too much uncertainty to bet on him with a multi-year deal this offseason.

J.T. Realmuto

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J.T. Realmuto has been arguably the best catcher of his era, and over seven seasons in Philadelphia, he's put together a resume that's made him potentially the greatest backstop in Phillies history.

So it's no surprise that the Phillies—without any real succession plan—want to re-sign Realmuto. Given the lack of quality catching options around the league and that Realmuto is lauded for the game planning work he does to get pitchers ready for their starts, it won't be surprising if multiple other clubs make a push for his services.

But you still have to remember that this is a catcher entering his age-35 season. He once hit well enough that he would have been a really valuable offensive player at another position, but now his value is really tied specifically to being a catcher considering he has posted a .722 OPS since the start of the 2024 season.

Additionally, while Realmuto remains elite at throwing out would-be basestealers, other areas of his defense have slipped. The two-time Gold Glover finished this past year with a minus-7 fielding run value, a stat that combines throwing, blocking, framing, arm and range to try to give you the total picture of a catcher's work behind the dish. For reference, in his last Gold Glove year of 2022, Realmuto posted a 15 FRV.

There are parts of Realmuto's value that can't be quantified by a statistic, that's true. But the parts that can paint a picture of someone who has declined significantly in recent years. Nonetheless, he's a lock to get at least two guaranteed years in free agency, and realistically probably three given how desperate teams are for quality catching.

Max Scherzer

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Man, it was cool watching Max Scherzer turn back the clock in the postseason and take down meaningful innings for a Toronto Blue Jays team that nearly won the World Series.

That doesn't mean, however, that he's a wise bet moving forward.

Scherzer is coming off of a regular season where he pitched to a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts, by far the worst mark in his 18-year career. He'll turn 42 in the middle of next season, and while he was once one of the game's elite workhorses, Scherzer has logged a total of 128.1 innings over the past two seasons.

When the three-time Cy Young Award winner is one day inducted into the Hall of Fame, Blue Jays fans will be able to claim him as having had some really special postseason moments for their team. But the reality is that before the playoffs, his time north of the border was viewed as a disaster. Whoever signs him for 2026 is much more likely to get that version of him.