.jpeg?w=1280 "Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (left) and Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (right)")
2025 NFL Week 11 Expert Picks
NFL fans are in for a treat. Week 11 will feature marquee divisional, intraconference and interconference matchups. The league will also stage its first game in Madrid. We're here to spice up the fun with analysis for an intriguing slate.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell have a few haymakers in store for bettors.
We're starting and ending Week 11 with lone-wolf picks. O'Donnell is taking the points in this week's biggest spread, and Davenport looks to avoid getting hooked Monday night. Our experts overwhelmingly faded three home favorites.
Our panelists went head-to-head in their analysis for 13 out of 15 games, with only two unanimous decisions.
Here are the standings against the spread and breakdowns for Week 11 games.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 83-66
2. Knox: 80-69
3. Hanford: 79-70
4. O'Donnell: 78-71
5. Gagnon: 74-75
6. Sobleski: 71-78
7. Davenport: 67-82
Lone Wolf Picks: 14-13
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Nov. 11, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2)
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Moton: Patriots (-12.5)
After an 0-7 start, the New York Jets won consecutive games, pulling off a late fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Cincinnati Bengals on the road and coming out of their Week 9 bye to knock off the Cleveland Browns for the team's first home win of the season.
In those contests, Gang Green racked up 66 combined points, which makes this line seem like a cakewalk for the road underdogs.
However, the Jets will face much tougher competition Thursday night. The New England Patriots have won seven consecutive games, and they've covered this line in three of those victories.
Without Garrett Wilson, who's out with an ankle injury, the Jets' depleted roster—following the departure of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams—will start to see the wheels fall off on a short week in New England.
O'Donnell: Jets ( 12.5)
It's so difficult to do what the Pats are aiming to do this week: win eight straight games. Both of their losses this year came at home. There is a good chance they throttle the division rival Jets—surprise winners of two straight games who definitely aren't good enough to win three straight—but the best teams don't always play like it even with an MVP favorite at QB.
This is too many points to pass up in a divisional, short week matchup.
Predictions
Jets: O'Donnell
Patriots: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Washington Commanders (3-7) at Miami Dolphins (3-7) in Madrid
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Moton: Dolphins (-2.5)
The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins will play on neutral ground in Madrid. Regardless of the location, take the less banged-up team with momentum.
The Dolphins remain feisty under head coach Mike McDaniel, despite roster and front-office changes. They bounced back from a 22-point loss to the Baltimore Ravens with a 17-point victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Miami will face an injury-riddled Commanders squad without its starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels, and lead receiver Terry McLaurin.
Over the past four weeks, Washington has allowed an average of 38.5 points per game and surrendered at least 28 points in each of those outings.
In backup quarterback Marcus Mariota's last two starts, the Commanders were outscored 72-29.
The trio of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, running back De'Von Achane and receiver Jaylen Waddle will run up the score on Washington's defense.
Sobleski: Dolphins (-2.5)
The idea of everyone on B/R's staff picking the Dolphins is rather sweet considering how poorly Miami has played at points this season.
It's a testament to the squad's resiliency by winning two of its last three games when it appeared the entire organization was going into the tank and resulted in the dismissal of general manager Chris Grier.
Conversely, Washington has faced significant adversity, with Daniels injured and a soft, doughy defense that can't seem to stop anyone in recent weeks.
De'Von Achane has a good chance to run wild during this matchup.
Predictions
Dolphins: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
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Davenport: Buccaneers ( 5.5)
The Bills are no doubt livid after getting spanked in Miami last week, and it's getting to be the time of year when playing in Buffalo can be unpleasant. But while it's going to be chilly by Florida standards Sunday and the track may be a little wet, the weather shouldn't be a huge factor.
What is a huge factor is a Bills defense that was just gashed by a bad Dolphins team and an inconsistent Buffalo passing attack.
The Bills will likely get the win at home, but covering a spread this big is another matter.
Hanford: Bills (-5.5)
The Bills are looking to right the ship after an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in Week 10, and the Buccaneers have shown lately—partly due to injuries—that their early-season contender status may have been a mirage after losing two of their last three games.
Josh Allen played arguably his worst game of the season last week, and while I'm not sure we've seen the last of that after a sleepy trade deadline, the Bills are able to lean on James Cook and the run game here to get the job done.
Buffalo's defense is worrisome, but this team is 9-0 at home in the 1 p.m. window since 2023, and a warm-weather team on the road isn't going to change that this week. The Bills by a touchdown.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Davenport, Knox, Moton
Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
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Hanford: Bengals ( 5.5)
Joe Burrow isn't going to play this week, but that doesn't mean his return to practice won't have the Bengals motivated.
This is a huge game. A win puts Cincinnati one game back in the AFC North. The Bengals have to think they have a shot if they can still be in the mix when their star quarterback returns.
And while it's still difficult to trust Joe Flacco, he's already shown he can beat this Steelers defense and it's not like the unit has improved since.
I think this game likely turns into another shootout, and I trust the Bengals' weapons and the quick-pass game with Flacco to at least keep this one close. But it won't be a shock if Cincinnati pulls another stunner and hands Pittsburgh another loss.
O'Donnell: Steelers (-5.5)
I just don't know what to do with either of these teams. The Bengals are desperate, possibly even more desperate with news of a potential Burrow return as early as Thanksgiving night. That could spark something, and taking the points against a Steelers team that seems to have hit its annual wall is probably the smart play.
However, at less than a touchdown, home to a team that's already beaten them once, I'll give the Steelers one more shot and hope they pick off Flacco on the final drive, leading by six.
Predictions
Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Steelers: Knox, O'Donnell
Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) at New York Giants (2-8)
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Hanford: Giants ( 7.5)
I have the potential to be very wrong here, but the Packers offense continued to look lifeless against the Eagles on Monday night.
Granted, this could be a get-right game against a Giants defense that's largely struggled all season, but I can't bring myself to back Jordan Love to cover a spread this big on the road, regardless of the opponent.
Brian Daboll is out in New York with Mike Kafka taking over. Jaxson Dart's status may be uncertain, but I'm a believer in a one-game bump for teams after changing head coaches.
It's ugly, but the Giants keep this within a score.
O'Donnell: Packers (-7.5)
As a fan of the coaching-change bump and a complete non-believer in Love even being decent, this should be an opportunity to take the points.
But Dart's status being TBD at time of writing and a hunch that Packers coach Matt LaFleur is about to revert to a power running team featuring all that Josh Jacobs can handle against one of the NFL's worst rush defenses, leaves me with no choice but to lay these points on the road.
Green Bay isn't a serious contender, but it may look good in this one.
Predictions
Packers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Giants: Gagnon, Hanford, Sobleski
Carolina Panthers (5-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
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Knox: Panthers ( 3.5)
During last week's loss, Carolina looked a lot like the "bad" version of the Panthers we've seen in recent seasons. This game feels like a prime opportunity for the Falcons to get a little revenge for the 30-0 loss they suffered in Carolina in Week 3.
I'm not ready to trust Michael Penix Jr. yet, and I think the Falcons could have a hangover from playing an overtime thriller in Germany last week.
I expect the Panthers to keep things close.
Moton: Falcons (-3.5)
The Panthers won four of five games before they laid an egg at home in a 17-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. Yet in that stretch, quarterback Bryce Young didn't play exceptionally well, aside from a highly favorable passing matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
Also, over the last three weeks, Carolina has allowed an average of 157 rushing yards per game, giving up at least 104 yards on the ground in each of those contests.
The struggling Falcons, who have lost four consecutive outings, can avenge their 30-0 loss to the Panthers in Week 3 with a get-right game for star running back Bijan Robinson.
Atlanta pounds Carolina with its ground attack to get off the schneid and cover by more than a field goal.
Predictions
Panthers: Gagnon, Knox
Falcons: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Houston Texans (4-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-8)
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Gagnon: Titans ( 7.5)
I think the Texans take care of a rebuilding Tennessee team here, but anything more than a touchdown in a divisional road game is pushing it considering Houston is 1-3 away from home.
Throw in questions about C.J. Stroud's status, and I'm comfortable taking a Titans team that hung with the Chargers in Week 9 and is coming off its bye.
Sobleski: Texans (-7.5)
Whether C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills lines up behind center, the Texans should hold a significant advantage over the Titans. Expect Houston's defense to make life miserable for rookie quarterback Cam Ward.
Granted, Tennessee had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry contest. It won't be enough. Houston features the NFL's No. 1 defense, with a defensive front capable of wrecking any game plan, as it did last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Predictions
Texans: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Titans: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Chicago Bears (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
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Gagnon: Bears ( 3)
It's not that hard to see the appeal of the Vikings here. Minnesota has won eight of the last nine matchups with the Bears, and Chicago has the look of a team just good enough to get blasted in the Wild Card Round by an actual contender.
However, this may well be that rarest of years when Chicago is actually better than Minnesota. Add in the Vikings' issues offensively, and not only do the Bears cover but they also win outright.
O'Donnell: Vikings (-3)
The Bears can't keep winning games the way they have, and the Vikings defense is not the Giants or Bengals. Do I trust J.J. McCarthy? Do the Vikings trust J.J. McCarthy? I really don't know.
But I have an incredibly hard time accepting the Bears as potential winners in seven of their last eight games, choosing instead to look at that loss in Baltimore as something closer to reality even though the Vikings offense certainly isn't the Ravens.
I'll take this more as a reality check for Chicago and hope for mistake-free football from the Vikes to cover the home-field spread.
Predictions
Bears: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Vikings: Gagnon, O'Donnell
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
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Gagnon: Jaguars ( 3)
The Jaguars are so unpredictable, but I have them winning this game straight-up.
I don't fully trust either team, but giving up a full field goal with the Bolts against a desperate opponent across the country is a stretch.
Travis Etienne Jr. finds some room against a beatable run defense, and the Jags win a close one.
Knox: Chargers (-3)
I don't love the idea of taking the Chargers and their banged-up offensive line as road favorites. After all, we're talking about a team that struggled to pull away from the Titans on the road just two weeks ago.
This is a reasonable line, though, considering how shaky Jacksonville's defense and Trevor Lawrence have both looked lately.
Predictions
Chargers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jaguars: Gagnon
Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
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Gagnon: Rams (-3)
This could go either way. I have the Rams winning by a field goal at home against a similarly talented team. Seattle has been fantastic on the road, but that has to end eventually, and this could be a correction game.
The Seahawks have played with fire with turnovers of late, and the Rams defense can take advantage of that.
Knox: Seahawks ( 3)
The Seahawks and Rams are both legitimate title contenders, and this should be one of the best games of the week, if not the season thus far (which, of course, means it'll be a defensive slop-fest like the latest MNF offering).
My gut says the Rams win this one, but I can't pass on the points in what may end up feeling like a Seahawks home game at SoFi Stadium.
Predictions
Seahawks: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Rams: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
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Knox: 49ers (-2.5)
It looks like we're all backing the 49ers here, which almost makes me want to flip.
It's not at all difficult to see a scenario in which Arizona wins this one outright. It lost the Week 3 meeting in San Francisco by only one point and swept last year's series.
If Jacoby Brissett can avoid turnovers, and the Cards can field a functional ground game, they can knock off an injured 49ers team that may finally be ready to crack.
I trust the Niners' ground game to carry them to a win, but I don't feel great about the line, as small as it may be.
Sobleski: 49ers (-2.5)
This pick is merely a result of watching a pattern. The 49ers haven't won or lost consecutive games since opening the season with a 3-0 record. San Francisco is coming off a loss against the Los Angeles Rams, which means it'll be up for the Cardinals and should win.
While this explanation may come across as simplistic, it shows the resiliency found within this squad despite multiple injuries and lineup changes. The Cardinals haven't responded in such a manner. Arizona has lost six of its last seven games.
The Niners have far more in front of them, which should have Kyle Shanahan's team up for this rivalry contest.
Predictions
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (2-7)
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Gagnon: Browns ( 7.5)
In Cleveland this season, the Browns are a respectable 2-1 (3-0 ATS) with their biggest loss coming by three points. They have a plus-21 scoring margin in those games.
There's no way I'm giving up a touchdown plus a hook, regardless of Baltimore's momentum. The Ravens lost in Cleveland last year. That might not happen here, but I'll take the points without hesitation.
Sobleski: Ravens (-7.5)
The Ravens' recent surge isn't about Lamar Jackson reentering the lineup. In fact, Baltimore won the first of its current three-game winning streak with Tyler Huntley behind center.
Jackson's availability helps, of course. However, the Ravens again tweaked their defense midseason and the unit is now playing at an elite level.
Baltimore used its bye week to make adjustments, mainly moving Kyle Hamilton back into the box after needing him to play deep safety last season.
With how poor Cleveland is playing on offense, it's difficult to imagine the Browns generating much of anything, while Jackson and Co. are good enough to put up points even against Jim Schwartz's stingy defense.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Browns: Gagnon, Moton
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Denver Broncos (8-2)
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Davenport: Broncos ( 3.5)
There's no way this could end badly—it's not like Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 22-4 coming off a bye or anything.
Patrick Mahomes has lost once to Denver in his career, but the Broncos are winners of seven straight (although not always prettily) and a perfect 5-0 at Mile High.
An always dangerous but flawed Chiefs team may keep those streaks rolling, but laying the hook on the road against an 8-2 Denver team is a bridge too far.
Hanford: Chiefs (-3.5)
The hook is somewhat worrisome here, but this is fairly simple. Other than the Eagles, the Broncos haven't beaten a good team this year. They don't look like an 8-2 team when you watch them play, no matter how strong the defense is.
Reid has a great record coming off a bye. The Broncos destroyed the Chiefs the last time these two met, but that is Mahomes' only loss to Denver in his career.
The Chiefs have been up and down all season, but this team has a bad taste in its mouth after losing to Buffalo in Week 9.
I like Kansas City to cover and continue hanging around in the AFC race.
Predictions
Chiefs: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Broncos: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski
Detroit Lions (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
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Moton: Eagles (-2.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a bizarre low-scoring game with the Green Bay Packers, a contest they won 10-7 after Brandon McManus missed a 64-yard field-goal attempt that wasn't even close to the uprights.
Some bettors may feel the Eagles escaped with a victory, given their egregious 4th-and-6 call that gave the Packers a chance to get into comfortable field-goal range.
Nonetheless, Philadelphia faces a more favorable matchup Sunday night. The Detroit Lions may be without cornerback Terrion Arnold and All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph. The former suffered a concussion last week, and the latter missed the team's previous three games with a knee injury.
If they're both out, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should feast on the Lions' pass defense, which has surrendered 18 touchdowns in nine games.
Even if Arnold and Kerby suit up, keep in mind that the Lions lost two road games by 13 and 14 points this season.
O'Donnell: Lions ( 2.5)
This game is scary, but the Eagles offense has shown me nothing to be overly excited about or having legitimate potential to hang in a shootout with the Lions offense.
I expect Philly to play more like the team we saw a year ago in this one, rising to the occasion in a potential NFC title game preview.
But the Lions tend to love the spotlight and have already won two prime-time MNF games this year. SNF isn't much different, and while I'll take these points all day, I've got my foot on the throttle for an outright Detroit victory.
Predictions
Lions: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Eagles: Hanford, Moton
Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
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Davenport: Raiders ( 3.5)
This is a terrible idea—possibly the worst of the week. The Raiders are woeful (again), and Geno Smith has not been great. But the Dallas defense is the worst in the NFC, allowing almost 400 yards and over 30 points a game.
The Cowboys are 1-4 on the road, and the Raiders are getting the hook.
Moton: Cowboys (-3.5)
The Raiders will likely need to score at a high rate to keep pace with the Cowboys' fourth-ranked scoring and total offense, something they've struggled to do this season.
Las Vegas is near the bottom of the league in scoring (31st) and total yards (30th). In the Raiders' last outing, All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers only saw three targets, which is proof of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's questionable play-calling.
Following a Thursday game, the Silver and Black had a few more days to prepare, but the Cowboys had an extra week.
Expect Dallas to come out of a bye-week reset clicking on all cylinders offensively and a bit more stout on defense with the addition of Quinnen Williams. Alongside Kenny Clark on the interior, the All-Pro defensive tackle can wreck the Raiders' offensive line that will be without guard Jackson Powers-Johnson while the offense racks up points for the cover.
Predictions
Cowboys: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Raiders: Davenport
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