2025 NFL Week 10 Expert Picks
After an 11-2 run for NFL favorites against the spread in Week 8, underdogs barked back in the previous slate, going 9-6, and three of them covered lines that were 8.5 points or more.
Last week, B/R's experts went 2-3 on unanimous picks. Now, they're back to mostly disagreeing with each other.
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell head into November with their minds on a second-half season surge.
None of our panelists finished with double-digit wins over the last two weeks, but a few experts could go on a hot streak, taking risks on home underdogs and fading big favorites in Week 10.
Here are the standings against the spread and breakdowns for the upcoming 14-game slate below.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 76-59
2. Knox: 71-64
T-3. Hanford: 70-65
T-3. O'Donnell: 70-65
5. Gagnon: 67-68
6. Sobleski: 65-70
7. Davenport: 61-74
Lone Wolf Picks: 13-12
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Nov. 4, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)
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Gagnon: Broncos (-10)
The free-falling Raiders have lost three straight road games, all by at least 17 points. The Broncos are more banged up here, but Las Vegas in Denver on short rest is an awful scenario for a team that just dealt away its top wide receiver. They lost 34-18 in Denver last season, and I'm expecting a similar result here.
Moton: Raiders (+10)
Though it's a small sample size, the Raiders covered the spread twice with a healthy Brock Bowers, who torched the Jacksonville Jaguars in his Week 9 return from injury, hauling in 12 passes for 127 yards and three touchdowns. After racking up 103 yards in the Raiders' season-opening win over the New England Patriots, he tried to play through a PCL injury for three weeks before the team shut him down for three games.
Back on the field without a bulky knee brace, Bowers transforms the Raiders' aerial attack into a respectable unit. Denver wins the game, but Las Vegas does enough with Bowers and Michael Mayer in two-tight-end sets with a sprinkle of Ashton Jeanty out of the backfield to keep the score within a single-digit margin. It's worth noting that Denver has only won two of its seven games by double digits.
Predictions
Raiders: Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Broncos: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell
Atlanta Falcons (3-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-2) in Berlin
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Hanford: Falcons (+6.5)
The Falcons can keep this game close, if they remember Bijan Robinson is a very good RB whom they should give the ball to as much as possible. I know that's asking a lot from this Atlanta coaching staff, but we'll see. The Colts offense turned the ball over six times last week, and while I don't expect that to happen again, I do think Daniel Jones may struggle again against a Falcons pass defense that's allowing the least passing yards per game in the league. Jonathan Taylor should get his, but I like the Colts by closer to a field goal.
Sobleski: Colts (-6.5)
When the Falcons meet the Colts in Germany, Atlanta's top-four defense will be trying to stop the NFL's top scoring offense. The Falcons' D is particularly good against the pass. However, the unit is soft against the run. In fact, Atlanta features a bottom-10 run defense. Against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts offensive line, Atlanta may just get run over. If the Falcons sell out to stop Taylor, Daniel Jones and the passing game will make them pay.
Predictions
Falcons: Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Colts: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, Sobleski
New England Patriots (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
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Gagnon: Buccaneers (-2.5)
I think this is a bad spot for a New England team that has won six straight but faces a Tampa Bay team coming off its bye week at home. I expect the Bucs' run defense to leave New England in a one-dimensional offensive situation, putting a lot of pressure on Drake Maye in a difficult road environment. Tampa Bay wins a one-score game.
O'Donnell: Patriots (+2.5)
I just keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on the New England Patriots and, while they didn't cover a week ago, they still found a way to win. The Buccaneers are much of the same. Battling injuries and winning close games isn't often a recipe for sustainable success, but both these teams are scrappy and can't be counted out. Usually, I'm all in on the Bucs, but coming off a bye gives me a bit of pause as Todd Bowles is 2-5 in his career as a coach in this situation. Bucs may win, but I'll take the points.
Predictions
Patriots: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Buccaneers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
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Buffalo Bills (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)
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Davenport: Bills (-9.5)
With Buffalo coming off a huge win last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, playing on the road against a division opponent and laying well over a touchdown, it might appear that this could be a letdown spot for the Fighting Josh Allens.
But it's not—the Bills enter Week 10 staring up at the New England Patriots in the division, and the dreadful Dolphins were just waxed in Miami by the Ravens. As fun as his press conferences may be, this is going to be the lopsided loss that gets Mike McDaniel shown the door.
O'Donnell: Dolphins (+9.5)
Tua Tagovailoa's struggles against the Bills are known — it is hard to hide from a 1-9 record and 11 TD-11 INT line against a division foe. Tua has fared better in Miami than in Buffalo, though — also no secret — and the Bills just spent a ton of energy defeating perennial playoff foil Kansas City a week ago. This has the makings of a letdown.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel got what, I guess, we can consider a vote of confidence for job security recently, and the team didn't go full Jets-level fire sale at the trade deadline, either. I'll take these points in hopes of an inspired effort or backdoor cover.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Dolphins: Hanford, O'Donnell
Baltimore Ravens (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (4-4)
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Knox: Ravens (-3.5)
I hate the hook here because this feels like the sort of game Baltimore might win with a walk-off field goal. The Ravens are on the road, their defense is getting better but still not great, and Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy can create some mismatches. However, Lamar Jackson is healthy, so I have to back the Ravens against a QB with three career starts.
Sobleski: Vikings ( 3.5)
The Ravens are favored as the visiting team, and they should be. With Lamar Jackson in the lineup, this squad has a chance to ascend quickly. However, the Vikings also have their starting quarterback back in the lineup. Granted, J.J. McCarthy isn't anywhere near Jackson's level.
At the same time, Minnesota looked like a different team against the Detroit Lions last weekend after suffering losses during the previous two contests. Expect Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to attack Jackson and a weakened offensive line to at least disrupt the Ravens offense and give Minnesota a chance.
Predictions
Ravens: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Vikings: Gagnon, Sobleski
Cleveland Browns (2-6) at New York Jets (1-7)
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Gagnon: Jets ( 2.5)
I had the Jets winning this game by a touchdown before their Tuesday purge, which I don't think was worth almost 10 points. It's really as simple as that. What remains of the roster has still had two weeks to prepare for a Browns team that has been hammered in all four of its road games this season. Bet up to three if possible and don't overdo it here as both teams are incredibly unreliable.
Sobleski: Browns (-2.5)
The Jets just conducted a mini-firesale at the NFL trade deadline. Clearly, New York's gambit is based on what it builds over the next year or two, not winning games in the immediacy. Granted, the Jets aren't going to lie down for Cleveland, especially in what's a winnable contest.
However, the Browns defense is the one good thing in this particular matchup. Myles Garrett and Co. should easily stymie Justin Fields. Meanwhile, the Jets traded away their best two defensive players, which should make life a little easier on Browns rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Predictions
Browns: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jets: Davenport, Gagnon
New York Giants (2-7) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
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Knox: Bears (-3.5)
The hook makes this feel like a trap. The Bears are coming out of a back-and-forth battle with the Bengals, and the Giants have real belief in rookie QB Jaxson Dart. I just think the Bears are starting to find too many difference-makers on offense for New York to keep pace without two of its biggest stars. As much as I believe in Dart, I don't think he'll be enough.
O'Donnell: Giants (+3.5)
The Giants are the second-worst run defense in the league, going up against the league's second-best rush offense. Caleb Williams has excelled against the blitz this season and makes some throws in dicey situations that definitely make you say "wow" in a good way. Chicago's defense leads the league in turnover differential.
But, plain and simple, I don't trust the Bears, a team that almost lost last week to the bizarro Joe Flacco Bengals and survived one-point victories against the Raiders and Commanders, and lost to the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens in four of their last five games (there's a win over the Saints sandwiched in there). A more-than-field-goal game seems too generous against a Giants team that will have to decide whether it's playing spoiler or throwing in the towel on the year. I'm not throwing in the towel yet.
Predictions
Giants: Hanford, O'Donnell
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
New Orleans Saints (1-8) at Carolina Panthers (5-4)
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Davenport: Panthers (-5.5)
The fact that we are living in a world where the Panthers are not only above .500 nine weeks in but also are giving 5.5 points to anyone may be a sign of the impending Apocalypse, but hey—we had a good run.
Just two of Carolina's five wins would have covered this spread, and one came against a Jets team that might be worse than the Saints. But the Panthers are 3-1 at Bank of America Stadium this season, and New Orleans is a woeful football team quarterbacked by a 38-year-old rookie. Tyler Shough age jokes are timeless—just like Tyler Shough.
Sobleski: Saints ( 5.5)
Here's the thing about the Saints: They're not good. But they're not atrociously awful, either. New Orleans has been competitive at points. In his second start, rookie Tyler Shough should be a little more comfortable leading the offense. But this selection is more about the Panthers and their approach. Carolina won four of its last five games. Those victories were by an average of four points. If the Saints load up against Carolina's run game and compete like they have, the spread works in their favor.
Predictions
Saints: Sobleski
Panthers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) at Houston Texans (3-5)
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Hanford: Texans (-1.5)
It's hard for me to trust either one of these offenses. The Jaguars added Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline, but I'm not sure he makes a major difference against a very good Texans defense, and Houston doesn't have any semblance of a consistent run game. I like Houston's defense to make just enough plays to win by three.
Moton: Jaguars ( 1.5)
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will miss this game, which means Davis Mills is slated to make his first regular-season start since the 2022 campaign. The Texans' struggling 24th-ranked scoring offense isn't going to perform any better with a backup signal-caller.
Houston's defense will keep this one close, but the Jaguars will eke out a victory with quarterback Trevor Lawrence throwing to his new, sure-handed wide receiver Jakobi Meyers.
Predictions
Jaguars: Davenport, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Texans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox
Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
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Davenport: Seahawks (-7)
If this game was in Arizona it might actually be easier to lay a touchdown—the Seahawks have peeled off 10 wins in a row away from what used to be the best home-field advantage in the NFL. Given how the Seahawks are playing, it may become that again—Seattle is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Yes, Jacoby Brissett just halted the Redbirds' five-game skid. Yes, none of those losses were by more than four points. But the Cardinals are an average team at best, and Seattle just destroyed one of those on the road. Lay the points.
Moton: Cardinals ( 7)
The Cardinals offense operates efficiently with Jacoby Brissett under center. In his three starts this season, he has thrown for 860 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. The Cardinals have covered the spread for each of those games.
The Seahawks have also covered the line in three consecutive outings, and they went on the road and beat the Cardinals 23-20 in Arizona in Week 4. With a second look at Sam Darnold in Klint Kubiak's offense, Cardinals defensive-minded head coach Jonathan Gannon and his staff should know how to slow the Seahawks' red-hot offense enough to keep the margin within a touchdown again.
Predictions
Cardinals: Moton, Sobleski
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Los Angeles Rams (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
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Gagnon: 49ers (+3.5)
I was shocked to see San Francisco getting a field goal and a hook in this spot. The 49ers may be a bit of a ghost team this season, but they still find ways to battle. In fact, they beat the Rams in Los Angeles just a month ago, so there's no way I'm giving significant points to L.A. in San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay's number, and we'll be reminded of that here.
O'Donnell: Rams (-3.5)
Brutal hook here as these games are typically really, really close. Since the 2023 season, each of these divisional matchups (five games) was decided by one score or less — three of which were three-point games. The Rams already lost in surprising fashion to San Francisco this year, though, and the Niners haven't swept LAR since 2022. Add in the fact that the Niners are 8-14 ATS at home and 7-18 ATS after a win since the start of the 2023 season, and I'm willing to lay down these points as Stafford and McVay continue rolling.
Predictions
Rams: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
49ers: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski
Detroit Lions (5-3) at Washington Commanders (3-6)
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Davenport: Commanders ( 9.5)
Can't do it. Can't lay this many points with a road team twice in the same slate—which means the Bills are doomed. The Lions are angry after losing at Ford Field to the Vikings a week ago. The Commanders aren't unravelling—they have unraveled. All the fun of this playoff rematch from a year ago (Was it just one? Feels like six in D.C.) has been Robosealed right out of this "game".
But Marcus Mariota and a back-door cover loom large here—he has covered a spread this big in two of his three starts, with the exception a road blowout in Kansas City. Ask the Lions how playing at Arrowhead can go. Nothing quite like hoping a bad team won't be too bad. Hail to the back door! Hail co-ver-ing!
Moton: Lions (-9.5)
The Commanders are in a downward spiral. Over the last three weeks, opponents have outscored them 110-43. Also, the Commanders will likely play this game without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, who dislocated his elbow last Sunday night, and lead wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who aggravated a quad injury two weeks ago.
In his last start, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota led the offense to one scoring drive in a 28-7 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, with McLaurin healthy for three quarters of that game. The Commanders won't be able to keep pace with the Lions' second-ranked scoring offense. This feels like a blowout in favor of the road team.
Predictions
Lions: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Commanders: Davenport
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
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Hanford: Steelers ( 3)
I don't really trust the Steelers on prime time, but perhaps Pittsburgh found a formula defensively against the Colts by playing more two-high coverage and blitzing less. This led to fewer big plays and also resulted in six forced turnovers.
The Chargers lost Joe Alt last week, which means Pittsburgh should have a chance to pressure Justin Herbert and force a few mistakes. The Chargers have won four straight primetime games and I think Justin Herbert plays hero enough to make it five here, but it's going to take a game-winning FG to give them a one-point win.
Knox: Chargers (-3)
I have serious concerns about this pick because of the Chargers' injuries along the offensive line. However, this is a long trip for the Steelers, who haven't looked particularly good in prime time to this point. I also don't expect Pittsburgh's D to force six takeaways for the second straight week. If L.A. plays a clean brand of ball, it can win by more than a field goal.
Predictions
Steelers: Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chargers: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)
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Hanford: Eagles (+2.5)
I would have been comfortable taking the Eagles by a touchdown here. The Packers offense is going to struggle mightily in its first week without Tucker Kraft, especially against an Eagles defense that added a slew of reinforcements at the trade deadline.
The Packers' run defense has been great for most of the year, but it was just gashed by Rico Dowdle last week, and I like Saquon Barkley to enjoy similar success as the Eagles' pass defense makes enough plays to keep things balanced. Since the start of 2023, the Eagles are 7-0 in November, and I think it'll be 8-0 after Monday.
Knox: Eagles (+2.5)
The Packers have been better at home than on the road. They also just lost to the Panthers at home and lost star tight end Tucker Kraft in the process. The Eagles are coming off their bye and have had plenty of time to build on the offensive success they found right before it. We're all on Philly and the points, though I don't feel great about it. Green Bay can win this and win convincingly if it corrals Saquon Barkley and forces the Eagles into some mistakes.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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