B/R's MLB 20 for '20: Projecting Top 20 Relief Pitchers in 2020
Baseball is a tough sport to predict on a day-in, day-out basis, and it becomes exponentially more difficult to predict looking years into the future. But that's exactly what we're doing.
The following is the ninth installment in a series we've dubbed "B/R's MLB 20 for '20." In this series, we'll attempt to project the top 20 players at each position five years down the road.
We've done catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, center fielders, corner outfielders and starting pitchers so far, and now we'll wrap up the positional rankings with relief pitchers.
After bumping the scale down to 95 points for starting pitchers, relievers were graded on a 75-point scale as opposed to a 100-point scale like the position players.
As a general statement, position players carry more value than pitchers for the simple fact that they play every day. That goes double for relievers, who constantly face high-leverage situations but still have a smaller impact over the course of a season than any other position.
They are also the most volatile on a year-in, year-out basis and hardest to project while at the same time being the most replaceable with new quality relievers emerging ever year.
So we have a 75-point scale for relievers to reflect that, and it lines up as follows:
- Repertoire (40 points): This area covered the arsenal of pitches a pitcher has at his disposal, his overall velocity and his strikeout rate.
- Command (30 points): This focused on a pitcher's walk rate and any improvements he's made in commanding his secondary pitches or overall walk rate in recent years.
- Upside (5 points): On a scale from 1 to 5, players were given a bonus based on their upside moving forward. A three-point bonus indicated that a player is expected to be at essentially the same level five years from now, while more or less than that indicated expected progression or regression.
- Tiebreakers: On more than one occasion, players graded out with the same overall point total. In that case, the first tiebreaker was who had the higher upside factor. If that still didn't solve things, the second tiebreaker was overall repertoire score.
All basic statistics and WAR numbers come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Advanced stats come from FanGraphs, and detailed pitching stats are from Brooks Baseball. Stats are current through July 23.
Hopefully that paints a clear picture of how players were graded and where some information originated. So with that out of the way, let's get things started.
Honorable Mentions and Notable Veteran Omissions
1 of 21
Next Five
- Jake Barrett, ARI
- Trevor Gott, LAA
- Keone Kela, TEX
- Jacob Lindgren, NYY
- Sam Moll, COL
Current Starters Who Could Make the Move
- Kyle Crick, SF
- Carl Edwards Jr., CHC (Currently relieving but still viewed as a starter long-term)
- Brandon Finnegan, KC (I still think he winds up starting long-term at this point)
- Tyler Jay, MIN
- Frankie Montas, CWS
- Roberto Osuna, TOR (Current relieving but still viewed as a starter long-term)
Excluded Because of Age and Expected Regression
- Tyler Clippard, OAK
- Wade Davis, KC
- Sean Doolittle, OAK
- Greg Holland, KC
- Jake McGee, TB
- Mark Melancon, PIT
- Andrew Miller, NYY
- Jonathan Papelbon, PHI
- Glen Perkins, MIN
- A.J. Ramos, MIA
- David Robertson, CWS
- Francisco Rodriguez, MIL
- Joakim Soria, DET
- Huston Street, LAA
- Tony Watson, PIT
20. R.J. Alvarez, Oakland Athletics
2 of 21
2020 Age: 29
2020 Repertoire Outlook
R.J. Alvarez moved to the closer's role during his junior season at Florida Atlantic, posting a 0.72 ERA and 11.2 K/9 with eight saves. That was good enough for him to be selected in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Los Angeles Angels.
He's been traded twice since, joining the San Diego Padres in the Huston Street trade before landing in Oakland in exchange for catcher Derek Norris. MLB.com's Prospect Watch offered up the following scouting report:
"Alvarez brings a power arsenal to the mound. His fastball sits around 95 mph, and Pitchf/x clocked it up to 97 in the big leagues. After struggling to throw his curveball for strikes, Alvarez replaced it in 2013 with a slider that has quickly become a solid offering. He also occasionally shows a changeup.
"
Alvarez has a 2.73 ERA, 1.179 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in 117 career minor league appearances.
2020 Command Outlook
After posting a solid 2.7 BB/9 mark in the minors last season, Alvarez has struggled some with his command this season, walking hitters at a 4.4 BB/9 rate. He'll probably never see his walk rate drop below 2.5 BB/9, and how his control progresses will ultimately determine how good he can be.
2020 Upside Factor
At 24 years old, Alvarez still has some progressing to do, and he's put up less-than-stellar numbers in Triple-A this season after a dominant campaign in the minors last year. He has closer upside, but he needs to rein in his command.
2020 Overall Projection
With the A's likely to move Tyler Clippard at the trade deadline and Sean Doolittle battling injury this season, there is no clear long-term closing option in the Oakland organization right now. With a strong second half, Alvarez could put himself in the conversation for the job next season.
19. Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
3 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Brad Boxberger was originally drafted by the Cincinnati Reds then shipped to the San Diego Padres in the Mat Latos trade before finally finding a home at the back of the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen.
He broke out last season with 18 holds, a 2.37 ERA and 14.5 K/9 in 63 appearances as the team's primary setup man, and he's moved into the closer's role this season with Jake McGee battling injury. He's converted 24 of 26 save chances with an 11.1 K/9 mark, earning a trip to the All-Star Game.
Boxberger does not have the standard ninth-inning repertoire, as he throws a fastball in the 92-95 mph range but relies on a changeup as his main secondary offering. He also mixes a curveball but is essentially just a fastball/changeup pitcher.
2020 Command Outlook
After posting a 5.6 BB/9 mark in 42 appearances over his first two seasons, Boxberger lowered that mark to 2.8 BB/9 during his breakout campaign last year. That number has jumped back up to 4.3 BB/9 this season, and his WHIP has climbed with it from 0.835 to 1.286. So command remains a question.
2020 Upside Factor
It took him some time to live up to his status as a former first-round pick, but Boxberger is now one of the better relievers in all of baseball. At 27 years old, he's in the prime of his career, but he should still be plenty effective five years down the road.
2020 Overall Projection
It appears that Boxberger has supplanted Jake McGee as the Rays' closer at this point, and he's under team control through the 2019 season. He also still has a year left on the cheap before reaching arbitration for the first time after the 2016 season.
18. Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
4 of 21
2020 Age: 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
An All-Star for the first time this season, Kelvin Herrera is pitching the seventh inning at this point in his career, but he definitely has the stuff to close.
His 98.0 mph average fastball velocity is tops in the American League this season and third in all of baseball, and he uses a changeup and the occasional curveball as his secondary offerings.
Since the start of last season, he's posted a 1.63 ERA, 1.084 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 while recording 34 holds. Not an elite strikeout rate, but terrific overall production.
2020 Command Outlook
Herrera sits right around average with his command, walking batters at a 2.9 BB/9 rate during his time in the majors and posting that exact mark so far this season. Given how frequently he throws his fastball (77.5 percent), it makes sense that he would be able to locate that one pitch.
2020 Upside Factor
After taking a big step forward last season, the 25-year-old Herrera has maintained that same impressive level of play so far this year. It will be interesting to see how he handles the ninth inning if and when he gets the chance, but at this point, he's an elite setup option.
2020 Overall Projection
Herrera is currently taking a backseat to Wade Davis and Greg Holland in the Kansas City bullpen, but they will both be 34 years old when 2020 rolls around, so by then, Herrera will likely be anchoring the team's bullpen.
17. Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
5 of 21
2020 Age: 31
2020 Repertoire Outlook
After a terrific rookie season in 2013 (77 G, 11 HLD, 2.43 ERA, 11.3 K/9), Cody Allen took over as the Cleveland Indians' closer midway through last season.
He backs his mid-90s fastball with a lethal knuckle curve, something of a different look compared to the fastball/slider look most closers bring to the table. He's surrendered just eight extra-base hits and a .162 average with the pitch during his career.
Allen saved 24 games in 28 chances last season, and he's 20-for-22 so far this year with a 3.60 ERA and 14.0 K/9 mark.
2020 Command Outlook
Allen has a 3.8 BB/9 mark and a 1.234 WHIP for his career, as he's not quite dominant when it comes to keeping runners off base but has still found a way to consistently nail down saves. He had a 2.1 BB/9 rate during his brief time in the minors, so he may be able to bring that walk rate down a bit further.
2020 Upside Factor
Cleveland took Allen in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft, but he needed just two seasons and 54 appearances in the minors before being promoted to the majors. He's already exceeded expectations but has likely reached his ceiling as a high-strikeout reliever who can pitch around baserunners.
2020 Overall Projection
Still playing for the minimum, Allen will get significantly more expensive this coming offseason when he reaches arbitration for the first time. The Indians did a great job locking up Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley to team-friendly deals, so perhaps they can do the same with Allen.
16. Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 21
2020 Age: 29
2020 Repertoire Outlook
The Philadelphia Phillies don't have many pieces to build around as they start reworking their roster, but reliever Ken Giles looks to be one of them.
His fastball averages 96.6 mph and can reach 100, and his slider features good 12-6 movement and is a dangerous strikeout pitch. Opponents have hit just .141 with six extra-base hits against his slider during his brief time in the majors.
Giles had a 1.18 ERA and 12.6 K/9 in 44 appearances as a rookie last season, and he's posted a 1.90 ERA and 11.2 K/9 with 12 holds in 44 appearances this season as the team's primary setup man.
2020 Command Outlook
Giles had a 5.4 BB/9 rate during his time in the minors, and he's still issuing free passes at a 4.0 BB/9 mark here in 2015. He's also been far more hittable this season, with his H/9 spiking from 4.9 to 8.0 and his WHIP climbing from 0.788 to 1.336. That's something he'll need to refine if he's going to be an elite closer down the line.
2020 Upside Factor
After finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, Giles is again putting up impressive overall numbers despite some questionable peripherals. He's yet to see extended action in the closer's role and is still honing in his command, so there is some upside here.
2020 Overall Projection
If and when the Phillies finally find a way to unload Jonathan Papelbon, Giles will immediately take over as the team's closer. For now, Papelbon is signed through this season with a 2016 option that will vest with 16 more games finished, so at the very latest, look for Giles to be pitching in the ninth by 2017.
15. Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers
7 of 212020 Age: 25
2020 Repertoire Outlook
A Futures Game participant this season, Joe Jimenez has posted a 1.55 ERA, 0.828 WHIP and a 13.3 K/9 with 11 saves as a 20-year-old pitching for Single-A West Michigan.
Undrafted out of high school, he signed with the Detroit Tigers anyway, and he's quickly established himself as one of the team's top prospects.
"Now, being used as a reliever only, the right-hander from Puerto Rico has been up to 97-98 mph. He throws a power slider as well, which also has the chance to be a plus pitch," MLB.com's Prospect Watch wrote.
His power stuff, two-pitch repertoire and the Tigers' overall bullpen woes for what seems like forever should put him in a good position for saves once he's ready for the majors.
2020 Command Outlook
His slider is still a work in progress, and his overall command needs refining, but he's managed to keep the walks down so far with a 2.6 BB/9 mark for his career. Still in the early stages of his career, and with only two pitches to focus on, he should be just fine from a control standpoint.
2020 Upside Factor
Jimenez has really come out of nowhere to emerge as one of the top bullpen prospects in baseball, and while he still needs to prove himself against a higher level of competition, his ceiling checks out as high as anyone here.
2020 Overall Projection
Joakim Soria is currently closing games for the Tigers, but his contract is up after this season. Big picture, the team can use all the bullpen help they can get, so as long as Jimenez keeps pitching well, it won't take long for him to reach the majors. From there, it may be only a matter of time before he's handling ninth-inning duties.
14. Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 21
2020 Age: 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Ranked as the No. 39 prospect in the league by Baseball America heading into the 2013 season, Trevor Rosenthal had no clear path to a rotation spot in the majors, so he made the move to the bullpen.
He took over closer duties last season, and while he saved 45 games, he did it in less than dominant fashion with six blown saves, a 3.20 ERA and a 1.408 WHIP.
However, those numbers have improved across the board this season (29/31 SV, 1.59 ERA, 1.213 WHIP), and he was an All-Star for the first time as a result.
He throws mostly a high-90s fastball and a decent changeup while also mixing in the occasional curveball and a cut fastball that he's throwing more this season.
2020 Command Outlook
A big reason for Rosenthal's high WHIP last season was a 5.4 BB/9 rate, as the 1-2-3 ninth innings to nail down a save were few and far between. He's trimmed that to a more respectable 3.0 BB/9 this season. But his 7.9 H/9 represent a career high, so there's a clear trade-off with throwing more strikes.
2020 Upside Factor
There was some belief originally that Rosenthal would make his way back to starting at some point, but it's looking more and more like he'll be a closer for the duration. If the step forward he's taken in his command this season is for real, he should be a good one for years to come.
2020 Overall Projection
Rosenthal is headed for a hefty raise in his first year of arbitration this coming offseason, and he is under team control through 2018. Signing relievers to long-term deals is always risky, but the Cardinals like to take care of their own, so an extension could come sometime soon.
13. Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
9 of 21
2020 Age: 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
After garnering NL Rookie of the Year votes last season in a setup role, Jeurys Familia was thrust into closing duties following the suspension of Jenrry Mejia, and he's been more than up to the task.
Like many of the guys on this list, he's strictly a fastball/slider pitcher, with his fastball averaging 97.1 mph this season and his tight slider sitting in the 88-90 range.
Familia has a 1.39 ERA with 27 saves in 30 chances this season, and he's improved his strikeout rate from 8.5 to 9.3 K/9 compared to his rookie campaign.
2020 Command Outlook
Control problems were one of the biggest reasons Familia was never able to cut it as a starting pitcher despite being such a highly regarded prospect. After posting a 3.7 BB/9 mark last season, he's lowered that to 2.6 BB/9 here in 2015, and that's gone a long way in helping him break out.
2020 Upside Factor
The Mets have finally found a way to tap into Familia's immense talents, and there is reason to believe he could get even better considering this is his first season closing games and he's still only 25. He did undergo elbow surgery back in 2012, but he's been healthy since and looks to be on track to anchor the Mets' bullpen going forward.
2020 Overall Projection
The Mejia suspension opened the door for Familia, and it doesn't look like he'll be handing the closer's role back anytime soon. He's under team control through the 2018 season but should still be pitching at a high level when 2020 rolls around if he stays healthy.
12. Hunter Strickland, San Francisco Giants
10 of 21
2020 Age: 31
2020 Repertoire Outlook
To this point in his career, Hunter Strickland may be best know for surrendering an absolute bomb to Bryce Harper last October, but he looks to have a very bright future ahead of him in the San Francisco Giants bullpen.
His fastball is his best pitch and he throws it 72.2 percent of the time, touching triple-digits with it on occasion last season. He pairs that fastball with a plus slider and a seldom-used changeup, fitting the late-inning reliever profile to a tee.
After a brief taste of the majors last year, he's emerged as a key arm for the Giants this season, posting a 1.96 ERA, 1.087 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 over 24 appearances.
2020 Command Outlook
Strickland has only walked five batters so far this season for a 2.0 BB/9 mark, and that backs up the plus command he showed in the minors, where he had a 1.8 BB/9 rate over parts of eight season.
2020 Upside Factor
Though he is just now establishing himself at the big league level, Strickland is already 26 years old, so his upside is probably minimal at this point. That shouldn't stop him from emerging as a key arm out of what should be a consistently good Giants bullpen in the years to come.
2020 Overall Projection
The core of the Giants bullpen is getting up there in years, with Santiago Casilla (35), Sergio Romo (32), Javier Lopez (38) and Jeremy Affeldt (36) all exiting their respective primes. That makes the emergence of Strickland that much more important for the team going forward.
11. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
11 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
It's been an up-and-down career to this point for Drew Storen.
He saved 43 games back in 2011 and looked to be on his way to long-term success. But injuries sidelined him the following season, and he lost the closer's role from there.
After thriving in the eighth inning for much of last season, he returned to the ninth when Rafael Soriano faltered in the second half, and he has 29 saves in 31 chances with a 1.73 ERA and 10.9 K/9 so far here in 2015.
Storen brings a three-pitch mix to the mound, throwing a mid-90s fastball, a terrific slider and a passable changeup that serves more as a show-me pitch. Batters have hit just .104 with zero extra-base hits against his slider this season.
2020 Command Outlook
Plus command has always been an asset for Storen, and even when he lost the closer's job in 2013 and posted a 4.52 ERA, his walk rate was still only 2.8 BB/9. He has a 2.2 BB/9 so far this season, after a career-best 1.8 BB/9 last season.
2020 Upside Factor
Ever since his breakout 2011 season, Storen has been trying to return to that level, and it appears he's finally done that here in 2015. The 27-year-old has several prime seasons left and can still be a dominant late-inning arm in 2020.
2020 Overall Projection
Storen is one of a number of key Washington Nationals players set to hit free agency within the next two offseasons, as he's under team control through 2016. Aaron Barrett has the stuff to close, so if he takes a step forward, the Nationals could let Storen walk. But for now, Storen's penciled in at closer through the end of next year at least.
10. Carter Capps, Miami Marlins
12 of 21
2020 Age: 29
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Carter Capps always had closer-caliber stuff with a fastball that can touch triple-digits and a biting slider, but a quirky mechanical adjustment has really allowed his career to take off this season.
The right-hander has held opponents to a minuscule .149 batting average against so far this season on his way to a 1.32 ERA, 0.732 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 27.1 innings for a 17.1 K/9 rate.
Already a big guy at 6'5", Capps hops forward off the rubber toward the hitter before releasing the ball, so his 100 mph fastball looks like it's right on top of you when he throws it. Until batters find a way to better attack that quirk, he'll continue to rack up the strikeouts.
2020 Command Outlook
Capps had a 3.4 BB/9 mark in parts of three big league seasons entering the year, but he's trimmed that down to 2.0 BB/9 so far this year. He only throws two pitches and has a good enough feel for both that he should be able to maintain something south of 3.0 BB/9 going forward.
2020 Upside Factor
The 24-year-old Capps reinvented himself in the minors after the Seattle Mariners traded him to the Miami Marlins, and he's finally enjoying the breakout season many predicted a few years back. His violent delivery could lead to some issues down the line—and he missed 84 games last season with an elbow sprain—so that's something to keep an eye on.
2020 Overall Projection
With Steve Cishek looking like a non-tender candidate this coming offseason and incumbent closer A.J. Ramos blowing four saves this year despite solid overall numbers, Capps should have a real chance to compete for the ninth-inning role next spring.
9. Nick Burdi, Minnesota Twins
13 of 212020 Age: 27
2020 Repertoire Outlook
A second-round pick out of Louisville in 2014, Nick Burdi looks to have all the tools to continue closing games at the highest level, according to MLB.com's Prospect Watch:
"He can run his fastball up to 100 mph consistently and sits in the upper 90s with ease. He combines it with a hard diving slider, giving him a second plus out pitch. … He has the makeup and competitive fire for a back-end-of-the-bullpen guy and wants the ball in pressure situations.
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He's struggled since making the jump to Double-A this season, but he still has plenty of time to turn his prototypical closer's arsenal into late-inning results.
2020 Command Outlook
Command is the big issue for Burdi right now, as he has a 4.6 BB/9 mark for his career and a 6.5 BB/9 in 22 appearances for Double-A Chattanooga so far this year. However, he walked batters at just a 2.8 BB/9 clip during his final two seasons in college, so there is reason to believe he'll figure things out.
2020 Upside Factor
Relief pitching prospects don't generally garner much attention, but Burdi is a consensus top-10 prospect in a good Minnesota Twins farm system. He has as much upside as any bullpen arm in the minors.
2020 Overall Projection
All-Star closer Glen Perkins figures to be closing games for the duration of his current contract, which includes a $6.5 million option for 2018. Burdi could join him in a setup role in the near future, with an eye on closing in 2019 and beyond.
8. Riley Ferrell, Houston Astros
14 of 21
2020 Age: 26
2020 Repertoire Outlook
One of the best closers in college baseball the past two seasons, Riley Ferrell racked up 29 saves with a 1.52 ERA and a 14.4 K/9 mark during his sophomore and junior seasons at Texas Christian.
The Houston Astros grabbed him in the third round with the No. 79 overall pick and sent him straight to Single-A Quad Cities to begin his pro career.
"He devastates opponents with a 94-96 mph fastball that reaches 98 and a mid-80s slider," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch, giving him the prototypical closer's repertoire.
2020 Command Outlook
An undersized frame (6'1", 230 lbs) and the lack of a plus third offering were the biggest reasons Ferrell worked out of the bullpen in college, but he also lacks plus command with a 3.7 BB/9 mark during his college career. He's already walked nine hitters in 11 innings since signing and will need to improve his control if he's going to reach his full potential.
2020 Upside Factor
The 21-year-old Ferrell has the two-pitch repertoire to be a force in the late innings, and he should be able to move quickly through the Houston system. He has the ceiling of a lights-out closer and room to improve if his control improves.
2020 Overall Projection
The trio of Luke Gregerson (31), Chad Qualls (36) and Pat Neshek (34) is currently locking down the late innings for the Astros, but with all three on the wrong side of 30, Ferrell could take over the ninth-inning job in the not-too-distant future.
7. Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
15 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Zach Britton went 18-17 with a 4.77 ERA as a starter during his first three seasons in the majors, but his career has taken off since he moved to the bullpen.
He's ditched his changeup since moving to relief and now relies almost exclusively on a mid-90s sinker while also throwing a curveball for a change of pace. He's induced a 75.3 percent ground-ball rate this season, and the fact that he's only allowed nine fly balls all year speaks to how good his sinker is.
Britton has a 1.66 ERA, 0.930 WHIP and 61 saves in 66 chances since the start of 2014, and as long as he keeps his sinker down, he should continue to dominate.
2020 Command Outlook
A 3.9 BB/9 walk rate during his time as a starter was part of the problem for Britton, and he's lowered that to 2.4 BB/9 since moving to the bullpen and leaning more heavily on his sinker. There's no reason to think he won't be able to sustain a number in that range going forward.
2020 Upside Factor
Despite spending time as a starter, Britton still only has just 368.2 big league innings under his belt, and he hasn't had any arm issues since dealing with a shoulder impingement back in 2012. The 27-year-old has risen to the ranks of the game's elite, finally reaching his ceiling as a reliever.
2020 Overall Projection
Britton earned a raise to $3.2 million this season in his first year of arbitration, and he's under team control through the 2018 season. He'll get expensive in the years to come, but the Orioles have no clear replacement in the organization at this point.
6. Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
16 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Once one of the top starting pitching prospects in baseball, Dellin Betances had fallen off the prospect radar before enjoying a career renaissance with a full-time move to the bullpen last season.
Betances was a fastball/curveball/changeup guy during his time as a starter, but now he's a two-pitch pitcher who actually throws his filthy mid-80s slider more often then he throws his high-90s fastball.
Since the start of last season, when his career really took off, he's gone 11-2 with eight saves, 32 holds, a 1.40 ERA, 0.792 WHIP and 218 strikeouts in 141.1 innings for 13.9 K/9.
2020 Command Outlook
Betances had a hard time pitching around his high walk rate in the minors, but he has a 2.9 BB/9 rate since moving to the bullpen in the big leagues. That number has spiked from 2.4 BB/9 last year to 3.7 BB/9 so far this season, but he should be able to settle somewhere in the middle.
2020 Upside Factor
It took him some time to live up to expectations, and it's also taken a role change. But Betances is one of the game's elite relievers at this point. He's had some arm issues in the past, though none since a 60-day disabled list stint in 2012, so he should be able to maintain his elite status for the foreseeable future.
2020 Overall Projection
Betances might be the best reliever in all of baseball right now, and he's not even the closer on his own team. With 30-year-old Andrew Miller signed through the 2018 season, he could finally be getting his chance at regular save opportunities when 2020 rolls around.
5. Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners
17 of 21
2020 Age: 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
An eighth-round pick out of Texas State in 2011, Carson Smith needed just three minor league seasons to climb the ladder and earn a call-up for the Seattle Mariners.
He has the classic mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider combination that many late-inning relievers have, while also mixing in the occasional changeup as a show-me pitch.
Smith posted a 2.55 ERA and 11.2 K/9 with 40 saves during his time in the minors, and he's been lights-out so far in 2015 during his first extended big league action. In 40 appearances, he has a 1.86 ERA, 0.776 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 while saving eight games in nine chances in place of a struggling Fernando Rodney.
2020 Command Outlook
Smith improved his command every step of the way in the minors, with his walk rate going from 4.1 to 3.1 to 2.7 BB/9. He's been even better in the majors in 2015, walking just seven batters in 38.2 innings for a 1.6 BB/9 mark.
2020 Upside Factor
As highly regarded as any relief pitching prospect in the league heading into the season, Smith has been brilliant so far for the Seattle Mariners. He's thriving as a rookie, taking the midseason move to the ninth inning role in stride. At 25 years old, there's even some room for improvement as he settles in.
2020 Overall Projection
At this point, it appears manager Lloyd McClendon has finally abandoned the idea that Rodney can actually close games this season, and Smith looks to have a clear path to the closer's role the rest of this campaign and beyond.
4. Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox
18 of 21
2020 Age: 26
2020 Repertoire Outlook
A Golden Spikes finalist and the No. 8 overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Chicago White Sox, right-hander Carson Fulmer went 14-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 127.2 innings during his junior season at Vanderbilt.
"Fulmer has an electric arm that delivers 93-97 mph fastballs and power breaking balls. His changeup is an effective third pitch and coaches and scouts alike rave about his competitive makeup. Some scouts think he'd be best off channeling his energy into becoming a closer," MLB.com's Prospect Watch noted.
He'll get every chance to start, but his max-effort delivery may eventually lead to a move to the bullpen, and that could put him on the fast track to the majors.
2020 Command Outlook
Mechanics are not the only reason some scouts view Fulmer as a reliever long term, as his control can also be hit-and-miss at times. He walked batters at a 3.5 BB/9 clip during his junior season at Vandy, and any control issues as he begins his pro career could expedite his move to the pen.
2020 Upside Factor
Fulmer may have some red flags as far as his long-term outlook as a starter is concerned, but there's a reason he was the No. 8 overall pick and the SEC Pitcher of the Year. He has an electric arm, and whatever role he eventually winds up in, he figures to make a significant impact.
2020 Overall Projection
After watching Carlos Rodon slip to them with the No. 3 overall pick in 2014, the White Sox picked up arguably the best college arm in the draft once again when they grabbed Fulmer in June. David Robertson is signed through 2018, and if Fulmer does wind up in the bullpen, he could supplant the veteran as Chicago's closer.
3. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
19 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Following the retirement of Mariano Rivera, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen took over the title of having the best cut fastball in the game.
Just like Rivera did throughout his time with the New York Yankees, Jansen relies almost exclusively on his cutter, throwing it 91.8 percent of the time during his six-year career. Opponents have just a .175 career average and a .270 slugging percentage against the pitch.
He also throws a slider, but that nasty cutter has helped him rack up 491 strikeouts in 311.1 innings for a career 14.2 K/9 mark.
2020 Command Outlook
After debuting with a 5.0 BB/9 rate back in 2010, Jansen has a walked batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 clip since the beginning of the 2013 season, including just three walks in 23.2 innings so far this season. He has that cutter down to an art at this point, and he can essentially throw it wherever he wants.
2020 Upside Factor
At 27 years old, Jansen has established himself as one of the game's premier bullpen arms and a real weapon for the Dodgers. He dealt with atrial fibrillation and had heart surgery back in 2012, but he seems to have put that behind him and has no arm troubles on the resume.
2020 Overall Projection
Jansen has a $7.43 million salary this season and one more year of arbitration eligibility this coming offseason before reaching free agency for the first time. He'll get big money from someone, and considering he's been the only constant in the Dodgers' pen the past few years, there's a good chance they're the ones who pay him.
2. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
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2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
A lot of relievers around the league today have power fastballs, but Aroldis Chapman is in a league of his own in that department with an average fastball velocity of 99.6 mph and the ability to touch 103 on the gun.
He recently became the fastest pitcher ever to reach 500 strikeouts, as he currently sits at 504 career punchouts in 294 innings of work for a ridiculous 15.4 K/9.
While he throws his fastball about 80 percent of the time and understandably so, he also has a devastating slider that is made that much better by the fact that hitters are trying to sit on his fastball.
2020 Command Outlook
Chapman has always been a bit wild, with a 4.4 BB/9 rate for his career. That includes a 5.0 BB/9 mark this year that is the worst since his rookie season. But he's able to pitch around walks because of his incredible strikeout rate, and at this point, his command is what it is.
2020 Upside Factor
At 27 years old, Chapman doesn't offer much in the way of upside, and it's reasonable to wonder how much longer his arm can handle popping off 103 mph fastballs before something goes wrong. He hasn't dealt with any serious arm problems to this point, but he may not last as long as some other relievers.
2020 Overall Projection
Chapman is currently under Cincinnati Reds control through the 2016 season, but there's a good chance the rebuilding club moves him before this year's trade deadline. He's already making $8.05 million this season, and that could climb above $10 million in his final year of arbitration.
1. Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
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2020 Age: 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
All due respect to guys like Greg Holland and Aroldis Chapman, but Craig Kimbrel has been the most dominant closer in baseball since winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2011.
From 2011 to 2014, he converted 185 of 204 save chances with a 1.51 ERA, 0.880 WHIP and 436 strikeouts in 268.1 innings for a 14.6 K/9.
With a high-90s fastball and a devastating sweeping curveball, hitters really don't stand a chance when he's at his best. His ERA has climbed to 2.97 this season, but he's still 26-of-27 on saves chances with a 12.9 K/9.
2020 Command Outlook
Kimbrel has never posted a walk rate higher than 3.8 BB/9 during any full season in the majors, and while his career 3.4 BB/9 mark isn't amazing by any means, it's more than good enough with his strikeout rate and low opponent batting average (.160 career).
2020 Upside Factor
There really hasn't been much in the way of growth as far as Kimbrel is concerned since he broke into the league in 2011, as he was just as dominant then as he is now. With no serious arm issues to this point, he should continue to overpower hitters well into his 30s.
2020 Overall Projection
Currently signed through 2017 with a $13 million option for 2018, Kimbrel could nonetheless find himself on the move once again before the trade deadline. With the San Diego Padres falling well short of expectations and perhaps looking to do some backpedaling, he could be a huge addition to a contender's bullpen.
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