B/R's MLB 20 for '20: Projecting Top 20 Starting Pitchers in 2020
Baseball is a tough sport to predict on a day-in, day-out basis, and it becomes exponentially more difficult to predict looking years into the future. But that's exactly what we're doing.
The following is the eighth installment in a series we've dubbed "B/R'sย MLBย 20 for '20." In this series, we'll attempt to project the top 20 players at each position five years down the road.
We've doneย catchers,ย first basemen,ย second basemen,ย shortstops,ย third basemen, center fielders and corner outfieldersย so far, so now we'll move on to the pitchers.
The big change that needs explaining here is that the starting pitchers will be graded on aย 95-point scale as opposed to a 100-point scale like the position players.
Why the difference in points possible?
To put it simply, position players carry a bit more value than pitchers due to the fact that they influence a larger percentage of the team's games during the season.
The position player vs. pitcher debateย is one that will continue to shift and evolve over time. For now, we're sticking with prevailing thought that position players carry slightly more value.
With that said, here is a look at how the 95-point scale lines up:
- Repertoire (40 points):ย This area covers the arsenal of pitches a pitcher has at his disposal, his overall velocity and his strikeout rate.
- Command (30 points):ย This focuses on a pitcher's walk rate and any improvements he's made in commanding his secondary pitches or overall walk rate in recent years.
- Durability (20 points):ย Injury history was the big factor here, but mechanics, frame and past inning totals were also taken into account.
- Upside (5 points):ย On a scale from 1 to 5, players were given a bonus based on their upside moving forward. A three-point bonus indicated that a player is expected to be at essentially the same level five years from now, while more or less than that indicated expected progression or regression.
- Tiebreakers:ย On more than one occasion, players graded out with the same overall point total. In that case, the first tiebreaker was who had the higher upside factor. If that still didn't solve things, the second tiebreaker was overall repertoireย score.
All basic statistics and WAR numbers come courtesy ofย Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced stats come fromย FanGraphs,ย and detailed pitching stats are from Brooks Baseball.ย Stats are current through July 22.
Hopefully that paints a clear picture of how players were graded and where some information originated. So with that out of the way, let's get things started.
Honorable Mentions and Notable Veteran Omissions
1 of 21
Next 10
- Jose Berrios, MIN
- Archie Bradley, ARI
- Lance McCullers, HOU
- Aaron Nola, PHI
- Garrett Richards, LAA
- Luis Severino, NYY
- Marcus Stroman, TOR (Need to see how he rebounds from his ACL injury)
- Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (Not sold on his long-term health)
- Julio Teheran, ATL
- Yordano Ventura, KC
Others Receiving Strong Consideration
- Mark Appel, HOU
- Trevor Bauer, CLE
- Tyler Beede, SF
- Kevin Gausman, BAL
- Jon Gray, COL
- Hunter Harvey, BAL
- Andrew Heaney, LAA
- Jeff Hoffman, TOR
- Grant Holmes, LAD
- Lance Lynn, STL
- Steven Matz, NYM
- Keury Mella, SF
- Mike Montgomery, SEA
- Sean Newcomb, LAA
- Daniel Norris, TOR
- Jake Odorizzi, TB
- Michael Pineda, NYY
- Alex Reyes, STL
- Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
- Drew Smyly, TB
- Robert Stephenson, CIN
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS (hard to know what to make of him at this point, will be 32)
- Kohl Stewart, MIN
- Zack Wheeler, NYM
Excluded Because of Age and Expected Regression
- Jake Arrieta, CHC
- Clay Buchholz, BOS
- Johnny Cueto, CIN
- Yu Darvish, TEX
- Doug Fister, WAS
- Yovani Gallardo, TEX
- Zack Greinke, LAD
- Cole Hamels, PHI
- Corey Kluber, CLE
- Jon Lester, CHC
- Francisco Liriano, PIT
- David Price, DET
- Jeff Samardzija, CWS
- Anibal Sanchez, DET
- Max Scherzer, WAS
- James Shields, SD
- Justin Verlander, DET
- Adam Wainwright, STL
- Jered Weaver, LAA
- Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
20. Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
2 of 21
2020 Age:ย 27
2020 Repertoire Outlook
An elite athlete who was more of a basketball player in high school, Taijuan Walker has quickly turned his raw talent into performance on the mound, but consistency is still an issue.
He began this season in less-than-stellar fashion with a 7.33 ERA through his first nine starts. He then went 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA through his next seven starts. He's struggled again of late, though, allowing 16 earned runs in 15.1 innings over his last three appearances.
Walker was primarily a fastball/cutter guy as a rookie, but he's turned more to his split changeup as his primary secondary pitch. He still throws the cutter and also has a curveball, but it all starts with locating his mid-90s fastball.
2020 Command Outlook
Walker posted 4.3 walks per nine innings in 38 innings of work last season, and while he's trimmed that to 2.3 BB/9 this season, his overall command still needs work. His athleticism is a plus here, and his smooth mechanics should help him refine his overall stuff.
2020 Durability Outlook
Last season was supposed to be the coming-out party for Walker, but right shoulder inflammation cost him 63 games and wound up limiting him to just eight games (five starts). He has the strong 6'4", 235-pound frame to profile as a future workhorse ace if he can avoid further shoulder issues.
2020 Upside Factor
Walker is still in the developmental stage of his career, as the 22-year-old has shown flashes of greatness but remains inconsistent. He's capable of taking a big step forward and producing like he did for a couple of months this season over a full year.
2020 Overall Projection
The Mariners have Walker under team control through the 2020 season, and he won't be arbitration-eligible for the first time until after 2017. According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the team has "balked" at the idea of trading him in the past, so expect him to be part of the long-term picture.
19. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
3 of 21
2020 Age:ย 27
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Carlos Rodon was the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the 2014 draft heading into his junior season at North Carolina State, but a subpar performance in the spring caused him to slip to the Chicago White Sox at No. 3 overall.
It didn't take him long to reach the majors, where he quickly jumped into the rotation. Through his first 12 starts, he's gone 3-3 with a 4.64 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 64 innings of work.
He's still a work in progress at this point, but his slider is already a plus-plus strikeout pitch alongside his mid-90s fastball. The development of his changeup, or a third offering of some sort, will be key to his progression.
2020 Command Outlook
Rodon has posted a 5.6 BB/9 mark so far as a rookie, but his walk rate was just 2.8 BB/9 during his final season at NC State, so there's no reason to think his command won't come around as he gets more comfortable at the big league level.
2020 Durability Outlook
He has the workhorse build with a strong 6'3", 235-pound frame, and there are no significant injuries on the medical report. It's just a matter of seeing how he handles an advanced workload in the years to come.
2020 Upside Factor
Rodon has been thrown into the fire this season to learn on the fly, as he was more of a finished product when he began his pro career than some of the other prospects on this list. That being said, his ceiling is as high as any young pitcher in the game if he can improve his command and fill out his repertoire.
2020 Overall Projection
The early call-up for Rodon this year puts him in a good spot for Super Two status, but the White Sox moved quickly to lock up both Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in recent years, and they could do the same with Rodon.
18. Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves
4 of 21
2020 Age:ย 29
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Shelby Miller has always had plus-plus stuff, dating back to his early development as a St. Louis Cardinals farmhand, but he's finally starting to put it all together this season.
After going 25-18 with a 3.41 ERA in two seasons in the St. Louis rotation, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves during the offseason, and he's taken his game to another level. Aided by a brilliant first month, he's gone 5-6 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.162 WHIP to earn his first All-Star nod.
The mid-90s fastball is still the weapon it's always been, but the big change has been the emergence of his cut fastball, which he is throwing 20.4 percent of the time compared to 6.2 percent last year. Those two plus offerings, paired with a good curveball, have allowed him to take the next step.
2020 Command Outlook
Command was an issue at times for Miller during his time in St. Louis, as he had 11 games with four or more walks in his two seasons as a starter and a 3.3 BB/9 overall. He's lowered that to 2.9 BB/9 so far this season, as his overall control has undoubtedly improved.
2020 Durability Outlook
Miller has not had any notable issues with his arm so far, but it will be interesting to see how he holds up down the stretch this season. He has yet to reach 200 innings in a single season, throwing a career-high 183 last year, but his 6'3", 215-pound frame is built to handle a significant workload.
2020 Upside Factor
Finding a reliable second pitch and improving his command were the two big boxes Miller needed to check off entering the season, and he's done just that in his first year with the Braves. The 24-year-old is now a legitimate front-line arm and should pair with Julio Teheran atop the Atlanta rotation for years to come.
2020 Overall Projection
Flipping free-agent-to-be Jason Heyward for Miller, who is under team control through the 2018 season, looks to be the best move the Braves made during a busy offseason. He'll be due a significant raise in his first go-around with arbitration this coming offseason, and an extension could be around the corner.
17. Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
5 of 21
2020 Age:ย 31
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Chris Archer was thrust into the role of staff ace for an injury-plagued Tampa Bay Rays team this season, but he's been more than up to the task while breaking out as one of the game's elite starters.
He's essentially a two-pitch hurler, featuring a mid-90s fastball and perhaps the best slider in baseball, which regularly sits in the low 90s. Opposing hitters have batted just .177 against his slider this season, but he has been prone to hanging it occasionally, surrendering six home runs.
Turning his changeup into a useful third pitch seems to be the next step for Archer if he is to maintain his elite status, and while it has been more effective this season, he is still throwing it just 6.4 percent of the time.
After posting an 8.0 K/9 mark last season, he's fanned 153 hitters in 128.2 innings this season for a 10.7 K/9 mark.
2020 Command Outlook
Control was the big issue for Archer during his time in the minors, as he averaged 5.0 BB/9 over the course of his eight seasons down on the farm.
He's improved considerably in that department since breaking into the Rays' rotation, and he's trimmed his walk rate from 3.3 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9 from 2014 to 2015.
2020 Durability Outlook
Archer has filled out his 6'3" frame since beginning his pro career, and he posted a career high with 194.2 innings of work last season. There are no injury red flags at this point, and he's on his way to the first 200-inning season of his career.
2020 Upside Factor
After going 10-9 with a 3.33 ERA last season, Archer has taken a significant step forward this year, lowering his ERA to 2.73 and really picking up his numbers across the board. The 26-year-old is just entering the prime of his career.
2020 Overall Projection
The Rays were smart to lock up Archer on a six-year, $25.5 million deal ahead of his breakout season, and with a pair of option years totaling $20 million, he could be in Tampa Bay through the 2021 campaign.
16. Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
6 of 21
2020 Age:ย 28
2020 Repertoire Outlook
In terms of the pure electricity of his stuff, there may be no one in baseball who stacks up to Carlos Martinez right now.
He can reach triple digits with his fastball and has a filthy wipeout slider, but his changeup might be his best overall pitch. Opposing hitters have batted just .117 with a 23.0 percent whiff rateย against the changeup this year, as Martinez has upped its usage from 2.9 to 14.7 percent of the time.
Martinez is actually posting a higher strikeout rate since moving to the rotation full time this season (9.3 K/9) than he did the past two seasons as primarily a reliever (8.3 K/9). He's also gone 10-4 with a 2.51 ERA to earn his first All-Star trip.
2020 Command Outlook
Martinez is still susceptible to bouts of inconsistency with his command, evidenced by his 3.8 BB/9 on the year. When he settles in during the early innings, he can be absolutely dominant, but he has posted a 3.97 ERA over the first two innings of games.
2020 Durability Outlook
Despite his max-effort delivery, Martinez has yet to experience any significant arm issues. There was a time when he was expected to wind up in the late innings long term, but he's certainly looked the part of a dominant starter this season.
2020 Upside Factor
The 23-year-old Martinez already has 229 career innings under his belt for the Cardinals, but he showed he still has some developing to do with the step forward he's taken this season. If he can further refine his command, he's capable of even more, so there is still some legitimate upside here.
2020 Overall Projection
The arbitration clock started on Martinez last season, as he will be under team control through the 2019 season. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals offer up an extension before free agency rolls around, though, as they have a history of locking up homegrown talent early.
15. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 212020 Age:ย 23
2020 Repertoire Outlook
It's not often that the term prodigy isn't more than hyperbole, but Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias legitimately fits the bill.
He began his pro career as a 16-year-old at the Single-A level in 2013, and he's gone 5-4 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and 231 strikeouts in 185.2 innings in his three pro seasons.
"[Urias]ย has a filthy three-pitch repertoire. He has a 91-96 mph fastball with solid life that he can throw to either side of the plate. If hitters try to sit on it, they usually regret it because he can cross them up with a big-breaking curveball and a deceptive changeup with fade," wrote MLB.com's Prospect Watch.
2020 Command Outlook
Urias has an advanced feel for pitching, especially given his age, but his command does still need some work. He had a 3.8 BB/9 rate in a full season at High-A Rancho Cucamonga last year, but there's no reason to think he can't get that number down as he continues to progress.
2020 Durability Outlook
Urias underwent cosmetic surgery on his left eye in May and just recently returned to the mound a couple of weeks ago. That surgery was done now in part as a creative way to limit his innings, and at this point, there is no reason to doubt the durability of his 6'2", 205-pound frame.
2020 Upside Factor
Miles ahead of the developmental curve since his pro debut, Urias has as high a ceiling as any prospect in baseball, regardless of position. The 18-year-old will still be prospect-aged five years from now, but expect him to be a big piece of the rotation puzzle in Los Angeles.
2020 Overall Projection
When he opened the season in Double-A, there were some who thought Urias might be called upon to make a late-season impact at the big league level. Now that he's back on the mound, that remains a possibility.
14. Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates
8 of 212020 Age:ย 26
2020 Repertoire Outlook
As his 6'8" frame has started to fill out, former fifth-round pick Tyler Glasnow has quickly proved to be worth the above-slot bonus the Pittsburgh Pirates gave him back in 2011, asย MLB.com's Prospect Watchย noted:
"Glasnow has shown an ability to blow away hitters on a consistent basis. ... He does so with a fastball he can consistently get up into the upper 90s, maintaining that plus velocity throughout his starts. He's capable of throwing a plus curve, though not always consistently. ... His changeup has improved as well, giving him a third pitch that can be at least Major League average.
"
Glasnow is 26-14 with a 2.03 ERA, 1.023 WHIP and 441 strikeouts in 336.1 innings, for an 11.8 K/9 mark that speaks to how dominant his stuff can be.
2020 Command Outlook
Glasnow entered the season with a 4.4 BB/9 mark for his career, but he's improved that number dramatically with a 2.7 BB/9 rate so far this season. If he can hover around the 2.5 BB/9 mark going forward, his plus-plus stuff would be that much more dangerous.
2020 Durability Outlook
There are a lot of moving parts in the 6'8" frame of Glasnow, but he has relatively smooth mechanics and has not dealt with any significant arm issues to this point. There is top-of-the-rotation potential here if he continues on his current trajectory.
2020 Upside Factor
Glasnow has gone 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.930 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 11 starts for Double-A Altoona this season, proving himself in his first taste of the high minors. The 21-year-old has ace-level stuff, and he's close to making a big league impact.
2020 Overall Projection
The Pirates already look to have a rock-solid long-term ace in Gerrit Cole, and all signs point to Glasnow joining him as one of the game's elite arms. With A.J. Burnett likely headed for retirement at the end of the season, Glasnow could debut as soon as next season.
13. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
9 of 21
2020 Age:ย 34
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Felix Hernandez has already changed his approach a good deal since first breaking into the league as a 19-year-old back in 2005.
He relied heavily on a mid-90s fastball early in his career but now throws primarily a "changeup" that sits in the low 90s and runs in on right-handed hitters. He also throws a good deal of sinkers and curveballs, as well as the four-steam fastball and even the occasional cutter.
He surpassed the 2,000-strikeout mark earlier this season and set a new career high last year with 248 punchouts in 236 innings. He has an 8.5 K/9 mark for his career, but he also knows how to pitch to contact.
2020 Command Outlook
Even as a teenager, King Felix had terrific command, walking just 23 batters in 84.1 innings as a rookie. He's maintained that 2.5 BB/9 rate for his career and posted a personal best 1.8 BB/9 last season over 236 innings of work.
2020 Durability Outlook
Hernandez has thrown at least 190 innings in each of the past nine seasons, including 200-plus the past seven years. He's only been on the disabled list twice in his career, and the last was in 2008 with an ankle sprain.
However, he's already at 2,184 career innings, so overall workload may start to catch up to him.
2020 Upside Factor
The oldest pitcher on this list, Hernandez figures to be on the downswing by 2020, but he doesn't rely on velocity or breaking stuff like he used to and should age better as a result.
He might not be in the conversation for the game's best anymore in his age-34 season, but he's still capable of being a top-20 starter.
2020 Overall Projection
Hernandez signed a seven-year, $175 million extension prior to the 2013 season that runs through 2019, but he seems like the kind of player who will spend his entire career with one team. We shall see five years from now.
12. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
10 of 21
2020 Age:ย 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Entering the 2014 season, Dallas Keuchel was 9-18 with a 5.20 ERA in parts of two seasons in the big leagues, which made him something of an afterthought in the Houston Astros rotation.
However, an unlikely breakout came last season (12-9, 2.93 ERA, 200.0 IP), and he's proved it was no fluke with even better numbers this year (12-4, 2.12 ERA, 0.970 WHIP).
Keuchel is by no means overpowering, with a fastball that tops out in the low 90s. He has a terrific changeup, though, as well as a plus slider as a third offering.
His game is keeping the ball down, as he's authored an impressive 64 percent ground-ball rate so far this season. As long as he can keep doing that, he should continue to be effective.
2020 Command Outlook
Keuchel posted a 3.4 BB/9 rate during his first two seasons in the league, but he has trimmed that down to 2.1 BB/9 since the start of the 2014 season. He can pound the zone with his fastball and changeup in any count, and command really is the name of the game given his lack of power stuff.
2020 Durability Outlook
Keuchel tired a bit down the stretch last year, but from a health standpoint, he had no problem making the jump to 200 innings for the first time. He's thrown an AL-high 144.1 innings this year, and with no significant injuries on his track record, all signs point to him being a workhorse moving forward.
2020 Upside Factor
After taking a huge leap from 2012 to 2013, and then taking another step forward this season, it may be tempting to think there are even bigger things ahead for Keuchel. However, given the fact that he's 27 years old and is more of a contact pitcher than a strikeout guy, what we're seeing this year is likely his ceiling.
That said, starter in the All-Star Game is not too shabby of a ceiling.
2020 Overall Projection
The Astros resisted the urge to sell high on Keuchel last season, showing they view him as a key piece of the long-term puzzle in Houston. He'll reach arbitration for the first time next year, so things will get considerably more expensive for his current team going forward.
11. Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets
11 of 21
2020 Age:ย 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Never truly dominant during his time in the minors, Jacob deGromย went 21-11 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.284 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 in parts of four seasons, but he has exploded since making the jump to the big leagues.
He throws primarily fastballs in the 95-98 range, while also mixing in a slider, curveball and changeup, which have all graded out as plus pitches during his career. Opponents are hitting .176 against his fastball for his career.
DeGrom was a surprise winner of NL Rookie of the Year honors last season when he went 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 140.1 innings. His strikeout rate is down a bit to 9.0 K/9 this year, but he has lowered his ERA to 2.18 with a 0.903 WHIP.
2020 Command Outlook
He is still working on developing his secondary stuff, but deGrom has lowered his walk rate from 2.8 to 1.6 BB/9 this season. For as electric as his fastball is, he commands it incredibly well, and that walk rate is currently good for fifth-best in the National League.
2020 Durability Outlook
Just six starts into his pro career back in 2010, deGrom was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2011 season. However, he's been healthy since, and his smooth mechanics and overall athleticism should help prevent further injury.
2020 Upside Factor
It's hard to think of a player who has risen faster in the past two years than deGrom. He entered the 2014 season as the No. 10 prospect in the New York Mets system, according to theย Baseball America Prospect Handbook, and now he's one of the game's elite arms.
The 27-year-old has probably peaked, but it's a much higher peak than anyone could have anticipated.
2020 Overall Projection
The trio of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard was already expected to make the Mets a force to be reckoned with, so the emergence of deGrom as a legitimate frontline starter has just been icing on the cake. With this being just his second season, he's under team control through 2020.
10. Matt Harvey, New York Mets
12 of 21
2020 Age:ย 31
2020 Repertoire Outlook
It didn't take long for Matt Harvey to establish himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball after debuting in 2012, but Tommy John surgery put a temporary halt on his rise to super stardom.
That said, he's come back strong this season, and his 96.0 mph average fastball velocity is actually higher than it was pre-surgery. His filthy slider/curveball combination is also still a serious weapon, as the slider reaches the low 90s and the curveball provides more of an off-speed look.
Harvey has 112 strikeouts in 118.1 innings so far this season, putting his strikeout rate slightly below the 9.9 K/9 mark he posted prior to surgery. He still has legitimate plus strikeouts stuff, though, and that total should rebound in the years to come.
2020 Command Outlook
Part of the reason Harvey was so dominant in 2013 was his command, as he walked just 31 batters in 178.1 innings (1.6 BB/9). That walk rate has climbed to 2.3 BB/9 this season but is still a more-than-respectable total, especially considering his WHIP sits at 1.099.
2020 Durability Outlook
While he's returned as strong as anyone could have hoped from Tommy John surgery, that is still reason for at least mild concern going forward. The Mets will no doubt limit his innings to a point this season, as they look to protect one of their most valuable assets long term.
2020 Upside Factor
It's reasonable to think Harvey will be even better next season, as the first year back from TJ surgery is generally a battle of sorts. A rebound to his 2013 level of production is a real possibility, but there's not much development left to be done by the 26-year-old.
2020 Overall Projection
Harvey will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this coming offseason, with free agency looming after the 2018 campaign. The Mets will likely want to make sure he checks out healthy the rest of this season before considering an extension, but talks could begin as soon as this coming offseason if there are no setbacks.
9. Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
13 of 21
2020 Age:ย 28
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Viewed by many as the clear heir to Adam Wainwright atop the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, Michael Wacha has been asked to step into the ace role a bit sooner than expected as Wainwright is sidelined with a torn Achilles.
So far so good, as he's gone 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.104 WHIP this season to earn his first All-Star nod.
Wacha uses a good four-pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball, terrific changeup, slow breaking ball and a cutter that he's developed since breaking into the big leagues.
So far, that has added up to a career 8.0 K/9 mark, and that number could climb in the years to come.
2020 Command Outlook
A polished college arm with plus command coming out of Texas A&M, Wacha has continued to pound the strike zone since reaching the big leagues. He has a 2.5 BB/9 rate for his career, and he's posted a career-best 2.1 BB/9 so far this season.
2020 Durability Outlook
Wacha looked to be on his way to a breakout season last year when a stress fracture in his right shoulder cost him 68 games, and he was not the same pitcher upon returning. He's bounced back nicely this season, showing no ill effects of the injury, and he has a durable 6'6", 210-pound frame that should allow him to eat up innings.
2020 Upside Factor
Under the tutelage of Wainwright and Yadier Molina, Wacha has already taken some significant steps forward since reaching the majors. The 24-year-old is probably nearing his ceiling at this point, as he settles in as a front-line starter.
2020 Overall Projection
The Cardinals have done as good a job as anyone locking up their homegrown talent in recent years, and after extending Lance Lynn last winter, Wacha could be next in line for a team-friendly deal to buy out his arbitration years.
8. Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
14 of 21
2020 Age:ย 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Though somewhat undersized at 5'11" and 195 pounds, Sonny Gray has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace for the Oakland Athletics on the strength of his fastball control and a pair of plus breaking pitches.
His four-seamer explodes on hitters in the mid-90s, and he backs it up with a great 12-6 curveball and a tight slider. His curveball was his out pitch prior to this season, and it's a good one, but he's throwing it significantly less (27.1 to 14.9 percent) this season and throwing his slider more (8.7 to 16.2 percent).
Opponents have posted a 20.79 percent whiff rate against the slider over the course of Gray's career.
It's hard to argue with the results, as Gray has gone 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.979 WHIP and 112 strikeouts in 129.2 innings.
2020 Command Outlook
After posting a 3.0 BB/9 mark last season, Gray has trimmed his walks down to 2.3 BB/9 this season, and he's seen a significant improvement in his WHIP as a result. He's mixing in a cutter for the first time this season, as he has good enough control of his three primary pitches that he can afford to experiment with a fourth.
2020 Durability Outlook
He may not have the prototypical workhorse frame, but Gray threw 219 innings last season, and his 129.2 innings so far this year currently rank fifth in the American League. He has no notable injuries on his resume either, so the only real durability concerns at this point stem from his overall lack of size.
2020 Upside Factor
At 25 years old, Gray is coming into his own this season as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He's the clear ace of the Oakland staff and should be a perennial All-Star going leading up to the 2020 season.
2020 Overall Projection
The Oakland Athletics have a habit of trading guys before they have to pay them, so until Gray gets an extension, it's fair to assume he'll be pitching elsewhere at some point. For now, he's under team control through the 2019 season.
7. Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals
15 of 212020 Age:ย 25
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Arm issues during his senior year of high school dropped Lucas Giolito to the No. 16 spot in the 2012 draft, but he may very well be the best arm in the class before all is said and done.ย MLB.com's Prospect Watchย took notice:
"Armed with three above-average offerings, Giolito does a good job of keeping hitters off balance. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s and has touched 100 mph. He throws his 12-to-6 curveball with a lot of power, and it is nearly as good as his fastball. He has made strides with his changeup, turning it into a true weapon against left-handers.
"
He's gone 15-8 with a 2.38 ERA, 1.098 WHIP and 230 strikeouts in 200.1 innings during his time in the minors, reaching the High-A level this season.
2020 Command Outlook
For a power pitcher with electric stuff, Giolito has also flashed command beyond his years during his time in the minors. He has a 2.7 BB/9 rate for his career and has issued just 18 free passes in 63.2 innings of work so far this season.
2020 Durability Outlook
A sprained UCL cost Giolito much of his senior year of high school and wound up leading to Tommy John surgery after the Nationals drafted him. They've brought him along slowly since, but they finally started to let him off the leash last year when he threw 98 innings. So far, the big 6'6" right-hander has not suffered any setbacks.
2020 Upside Factor
Giolito is probably the top pitching prospect in baseball right now, as the 21-year-old has impressed every step of the way since getting healthy. He has legitimate ace potential and could just be reaching his prime in 2020.
2020 Overall Projection
The Nationals have some decisions to make with Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister headed for free agency this offseason and Stephen Strasburg doing the same the following year. Letting one or more of those guys walk will be made easier by the presence of Giolito.
6. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
16 of 21
2020 Age:ย 27
2020 Repertoire Outlook
An imposing figure on the mound at 6'6" and 240 pounds, Noah Syndergaard has the power stuff to be that much more intimidating.
His fastball reaches the high 90s, and he also throws a sinker at the same velocity. He offsets that with a great 12-6 curveball in the low 80s and an improving changeup that could be a solid third pitch down the line.
Syndergaard had a 10.0 K/9 mark during his time in the minors, and in 12 starts since reaching the majors, he has 78 strikeouts in 73.2 innings for a 9.5 K/9 rate.
2020 Command Outlook
Thor had a 3.85 K/BB ratio during his time in the minors, and he has displayed phenomenal control since reaching the majors with a 1.8 BB/9 and 5.2 K/BB ratio. He has smooth mechanics, especially for his size, and a repeatable delivery that aids in his control.
2020 Durability Outlook
Syndergaard missed time last season with a flexor pronator strainย in his throwing elbow, but it didn't prove to be anything bigger, and he's healthy once again this year. His max velocity does make him more susceptible than others to arm issues, but there's no reason to be concerned at this point.
2020 Upside Factor
The 22-year-old Syndergaard has settled in alongside Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom at the top of the Mets rotation this season, and the 22-year-old has a chance to be the best of the bunch as he continues to progress over the next few seasons.
2020 Overall Projection
Despite a clear need for offensive support, even before the season started, the Mets were unwilling to entertain the idea of moving Syndergaard. That looks like the right decision so far. He could conceivably be a fixture atop their rotation for the next decade.
5. Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
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2020 Age:ย 27
2020 Repertoire Outlook
After missing over a year recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jose Fernandez has picked up right where he left off with the same dominant arsenal of pitches he displayed pre-injury.
The 6'2" right-hander pairs a blazing four-seam fastball that reaches the high 90s with arguably the best curveball in all of baseball. He's also working on turning his changeup into a third quality offering, and he's thrown it more this season than he did in the past.
Fernandez has 278 strikeouts in 243.1 career innings, with 177 of those punchouts coming on his curveball.
Opponents have hit just .120 with 11 extra-base hits against the pitch over the course of his career, and it's been equally sharp coming off surgery.
2020 Command Outlook
Fernandez has always had plus command of his pitches, posting a 2.5 BB/9 mark during his brief time in the minors and a 2.7 BB/9 mark during his time in the majors. His ability to locate the fastball makes his secondary stuff that much better.
2020 Durability Outlook
The fact that Fernandez has already undergone Tommy John surgery is obviously a red flag long term, but he has looked every bit the same dominant pitcher he was prior to the injury since returning this season. With a durable 215-pound frame and smooth mechanics, he should be able to avoid further issues.
2020 Upside Factor
The 22-year-old Fernandez had an advanced feel for pitching even as a rookie, and while he's capable of overpowering hitters, he's also shown a willingness to pitch to contact to keep his pitch count down. It's hard to envision him getting much better, but he has a lot of prime season left in the tank.
2020 Overall Projection
Fernandez was among a handful of players the Marlins attempted to extend after locking up Giancarlo Stanton during the offseason, making an offer said to be in the six-year, $40 million range, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. The two sides were unable to nail down a deal, but expect talks to pick back up this coming winter.
4. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
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2020 Age:ย 30
2020 Repertoire Outlook
An absolute horse with a 6'5", 235-pound frame, Madison Bumgarner is the definition of a staff ace, and he made that abundantly clear during the San Francisco Giants' postseason run last October.
Bumgarner throws primarily a fastball in the 93-95 range and a terrific slider, while also mixing in a curveball. His curve is significantly slower, sitting in the mid-70s, and it's really more of a change-of-pace pitch than anything else. The fastball/slider combo is his bread and butter.
He set career bests with 219 strikeouts and a 9.1 K/9 mark last season, and he's fanning hitters at a similar rate (9.0 K/9) here in 2015.
2020 Command Outlook
Bumgarner has always had good control, but he took that to another level last season with a career-best 1.8 BB/9 mark during the regular season and just six walks in 52.2 innings during the postseason. He has only 24 walks in 124 innings so far this season (1.7 BB/9), and that plus-plus command should continue going forward.
2020 Durability Outlook
With zero disabled-list trips and an average of 208 innings pitched (not counting the playoffs) over the past four seasons, Bumgarner is as durable as any pitcher in the game today. There's always the concern of a big workload catching up to a pitcher once he's on the wrong side of 30, but Bumgarner looks to be up to the task.
2020 Upside Factor
A big leaguer by the age of 19, Bumgarner is already in his seventh season with the Giants, so at this point, it's fair to assume he's reached his ceiling. But that ceiling is as one of the game's most consistent and durable front-line arms.
2020 Overall Projection
The Giants locked up Bumgarner with a six-year, $35.56 million deal prior to the 2012 season, and it includes a pair of $12 million options that could keep him in San Francisco through 2019. The team has made a point to lock up its own key free agents in recent years, so there's no reason to think it'll let MadBum get away.
3. Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2020 Age:ย 29
2020 Repertoire Outlook
At a burly 6'4" and 230 pounds, Gerrit Cole has the look of a workhorse ace and the front-line stuff to back it up. He throws a heavy fastball, slider and curveball, and he'll also mix in the occasional changeup.
While he was more of a three-pitch hurler to start his career, he's thrown his slider more (13.0 to 22.4 percent) and curveball less (13.9 to 6.1 percent) this season.
Opponents are hitting just .167 against the slider in 2015, as he's really leaning on that pitch now along with the four-seamer he can dial up to triple digits.
After posting a somewhat puzzling 7.7 K/9 mark as a rookie, given his strikeout stuff, he's fanned 260 batters in 262.2 innings since the start of 2014.
2020 Command Outlook
Command was the biggest question with Cole when the Pirates decided to make him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, but he has developed nicely and posted a 2.3 BB/9 mark during his time in the majors. Turning his focus to his two best pitches has certainly helped in that department.
2020 Durability Outlook
Cole made two different trips to the disabled list last season with right shoulder issues, but he has been healthy so far this campaign. His durable build (6'4", 230 lbs) and smooth mechanics should allow him to be a workhorse, and at this point, last year's injury issues look to be an isolated incident.
2020 Upside Factor
After showing flashes during his first two seasons in the majors, Cole has stepped forward as a legitimate ace this year, going 13-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. It's hard to expect much more than that, but he should be among the league's best for the foreseeable future.
2020 Overall Projection
Cole will not be arbitration-eligible for the first time until after the 2016 season, putting him under team control through 2019. That means the 2020 season could be a transition year if the Pirates are not able to lock him up long term in the years to come.
2. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
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2020 Age:ย 31
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Chris Sale reached the big leagues a matter of months after being taken No. 13 overall in the 2010 draft, and after spending the first two seasons of his career pitching in relief, he moved to the rotation and quickly became one of the top pitchers in the game.
These days, he uses primarily a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s changeup while pounding the zone with strikes. He used to rely on his slider as a strikeout pitch, and while it's still a plus offering, he's throwing it just 17.2 percent of the time this season.
Sale rattled off a stretch of eight consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts this year, tying a major league record. He has a 10.1 K/9 mark for his career and 163 strikeouts in 125.2 innings so far this year.
2020 Command Outlook
After walking 3.5 batters per nine innings during his time in the bullpen, Sale has trimmed his walk rate to 1.7 BB/9 so far this season. He didn't use his changeup much out of the bullpen, but it has turned into a legitimate plus-plus pitch.
2020 Durability Outlook
Sale missed 32 games last season with a flexor strain, which will be something worth keeping an eye on moving forward given his funky mechanics. After all, they don't call him The Condor for no reason, but to this point, the mechanics haven't posed any other significant problems.
2020 Upside Factor
After trimming his ERA from 3.07 to 2.17 between 2013 and 2014, Sale has clearly established himself as one of the game's elite arms. The 26-year-old is capable of duplicating that level of performance for the foreseeable future.
2020 Overall Projection
The White Sox got one of the best bargains in baseball when they signed Sale to a five-year, $32.5 million deal prior to the 2013 season. The contract also includes two option years totaling $26 million, which would keep him on the South Side through 2019.
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2020 Age:ย 32
2020 Repertoire Outlook
Clayton Kershaw works with a three-pitch repertoire, throwing a four-seam fastball, a biting slider and a filthy curveball that routinely buckles hitters.
All three pitches are plus-plus, and while his curveball might be his single most dominant pitch (.123 BAA), he relies more on his slider these days, and it's been equally effective with a 23.59 percent whiff rate and .159 BAA.
Kershaw has already piled up 1,619 career strikeouts, fanning hitters at a 9.7 K/9 rate, and he's posted 174 strikeouts in 131 innings this season for a career-high 12.0 K/9.
2020 Command Outlook
Kershawย was a bit wild when he first came into the league, walking 4.2 batters per nine innings over his first three seasons. His command took a big step forward in 2011, though, and he's posted a 2.0 BB/9 mark since the start of that season.
2020 Durability Outlook
After four straight 200-plus inning seasons, Kershaw fell just short of that mark last year (198.1 IP) when he missed the first month of the season with back problems.
That was his first trip to the disabled list, and considering it had nothing to do with his arm, there are no real injury red flags. However, he figures to be well over the 2,000 career inning mark by 2020, so that has to be taken into account.
2020 Upside Factor
Kershaw will still be just 32 years old in 2020, but there will be a lot of innings on his arm after he broke into the majors at the age of 20. He should still be an ace-caliber arm, albeit one on the down slope of his prime.
2020 Overall Projection
The Dodgers made Kershaw the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history with a seven-year, $215 million extension prior to last season. However, he can opt out following his age-30 season in 2018, so that will be something to keep in mind.
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