
Win-Win Trade Scenarios MLB Teams Should Pull the Trigger On
In theory, shouldn't all baseball trades be fair deals for both sides? That's the whole point of the word "trade." Legend says it stands for Transaction Really Appeased Denizens Everywhere.
And yet, it's not easy for MLB front office executives to hammer out deals that work for everyone. Especially not this time of year, as the July 31 deadline creates a frenzied atmosphere that's not conducive to rational thinking.
So we're here to help with some ideas.
Ahead is a list of six trades that, were they to go through, would satisfy the needs of both teams involved. They're mostly based off of rumors and speculation, and therefore obviously guaranteed to happen in real life at some point before the deadline passes.
No, not really. But what the heck. These trades may not be destined to happen, but at least they'll be fun to talk about. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Dodgers Trade Jose De Leon to Reds for Aroldis Chapman
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As John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported this week, the Cincinnati Reds' fire sale is finally on.
As Fay notes, among those on the block is flame-throwing left-hander Aroldis Chapman. He's been one of baseball's most unhittable closers since 2012—see his 1.92 ERA and 16.1 K/9—and he also has another year of club control left. That's a guy who can fetch a dandy return in a trade.
So, let's talk about why Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed prospect Jose De Leon would work.
As FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote at Fox Sports, recent history says that Chapman is worth either one top-100 prospect in the No. 26-50 range or two prospects from the No. 51-75 range. With the 2015 season more than halfway gone, Baseball Prospectus puts De Leon at No. 42 overall. Baseball America and ESPN.com's Keith Law like him enough to put him all the way up at No. 20. Either way, he roughly fits in the range that the Reds should be looking in.
And rest assured, Reds fans, the Reds wouldn't be trading a year-and-a-half of Chapman for a prospect who's come out of nowhere.
Even the more skeptical Baseball Prospectus scouting report noted that De Leon took "a major step forward" in 2014, and now he's showing that his mid-90s fastball and plus-plus slider are no joke. He had a 1.67 ERA in seven starts at High-A to begin the year. And though he only has a 4.15 ERA at Double-A, that's next to an 11.8 K/9 and a 6.4 H/9. His stuff is playing just fine.
As for why the Dodgers should be willing to do this deal, the presence of fellow talented hurlers Julio Urias and Grant Holmes make De Leon expendable. Beyond that, there's the frightening possibility of what they could do with a bullpen featuring Chapman's heat and Kenley Jansen's physics-defying cutter. Any Dodgers lead after seven innings would invariably become a Dodgers victory.
At the least, a Chapman-Jansen duo would be instrumental in helping the Dodgers wrap up another NL West title. After that, the two of them could be instrumental in delivering that World Series championship that has eluded the Dodgers in recent seasons, in part thanks to shoddy relief pitching.
Royals Trade Raul Mondesi Jr. to Reds for Johnny Cueto and Marlon Byrd
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Chapman isn't the only big-name Reds pitcher on the block. Also available is Johnny Cueto, who has quietly been one of baseball's best pitchers since 2011.
That makes Cueto a valuable trade chip, but what drags his value down a smidge is his upcoming free agency. Because of that, the aforementioned Sullivan article says that recent history puts a fair price for Cueto at a prospect somewhere in the middle third of the top 100.
But if the Reds package Cueto with Marlon Byrd, they would be able to put on a straight face and ask the Kansas City Royals for shortstop prospect Raul Mondesi Jr.
Mondesi was already a hot commodity coming into the year, ranking as a consensus top-50 prospect. Now he's an even hotter prospect, checking in at No. 25 on Baseball America's rankings and all the way up at No. 12 in Baseball Prospectus' rankings.
This hype is well-deserved. Mondesi is a classic bucket-o'-tools prospect who figures to play plus defense and should evolve into an above-average hitter. Picture his old man, except way better.
All this should be music to the Reds' ears. As for the Royals, well, let's just say they could make parting with Mondesi worth it.
A recent report from Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star indicating that the Royals are "pushing hard" for Cueto makes total sense. Their rotation is badly in need of an ace starting pitcher, for one. For two, the fact that the Royals are dead last in the American League in starting pitcher innings highlights how badly they need an innings-eater. Cueto can do that as well as anyone.
You could make an argument that Mondesi-for-Cueto straight up would be an overpay worth making for the Royals. But getting Byrd as a throw-in would be a perfect deal-sweetener. He could fill in for the injured Alex Gordon in left field for now. Later, he could give the Royals an offensive upgrade over Alex Rios in right field.
All told, such a deal would give the Royals the pieces they need to not only finish off their push for their first division title in 30 years, but to push for a return trip to the World Series. That's a mission worth sacrificing a top prospect for.
Astros Trade Mark Appel (and more) to Padres for Tyson Ross
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If the Royals end up getting Cueto, one team that will be very, very upset is the Houston Astros. By all accounts, they also really want Cueto.
However, here's thinking they'd be willing to settle for Tyson Ross.
As Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported, the Astros have reached out to the San Diego Padres about both Ross and Andrew Cashner. It's safe to assume that Ross is the guy they want more. Part of his appeal is that he's controllable through 2017. The other part is that, as evidenced by his 3.08 ERA over the last three seasons, he's a really good pitcher.
And on the Astros, Ross could be even better. Baseball Prospectus can vouch that the move from San Diego to Houston would mean a huge defensive upgrade. Likewise, elite strike-framers Jason Castro and Hank Conger could help correct the ugly 4.4 BB/9 Ross has this year.
As for the centerpiece that could head west to San Diego, I bring up Mark Appel for two reasons.
One is that, per Drellich, the Astros are willing to part with the former No. 1 overall pick. The other is that he's still regarded as a top-50 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and ESPN.com's Keith Law despite his ongoing struggles. That goes to show the guy has thick armor around his upside.
The Padres are a good candidate to make a play on that upside. Their farm system is badly in need of refurbishing after general manager A.J. Preller gutted it over the offseason, particularly on the pitching side of things. The other is that they could benefit from Appel's upside in the very near future, as he's a 24-year-old who's advanced as far as Triple-A.
Granted, the Padres would need more than just Appel's upside to hand over two-plus years of Ross' pitching. To that end, the Astros have a variety of prospects who could suit them. Among them are outfielder Domingo Santana and third baseman Colin Moran, who could both fill needs in San Diego.
If the Astros can get Ross, he and Dallas Keuchel would make for a hell of a one-two punch that could help the team see their surprise season through to a postseason berth. If the Padres deal him for Appel and whomever else, they'll have turned their bleak present toward a brighter future.
Cubs Trade Starlin Castro to the Padres for James Shields
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Unloading Ross would be a darn good way for the Padres to restock their farm system. Unloading James Shields, on the other hand, would be a different story.
With a 3.77 ERA over 126.2 innings, Shields isn't having a bad year. He's just not having a good year, as that's a "meh" ERA that's backed by "meh" peripherals. Given that this is happening in Shields' age-33 season, one wonders if he's finally ready to decline.
With that being the case, the Padres can't look to turn Shields into talented prospects. As a recent report from ESPN.com's Buster Olney hinted at, what they need to do instead is unload as much of his contract as they can and take what they can get in return.
In case you haven't already guessed, one team that could help them with that is the Chicago Cubs.
Even after they had secured Jon Lester, the Cubs made a spirited run at signing Shields over the winter. Now various reports have them looking to deal for a starter, and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is among those who have indicated them as a fit for Shields. That idea holds water because (a) the Cubs can afford what's left of Shields' four-year, $75 million contract, and (b) they can get him without parting with their top prospects.
As for what the Cubs could send to San Diego in exchange for Shields, let's borrow (read: "steal") an idea from Joel Sherman of the New York Post: Starlin Castro.
The Padres do need a shortstop, after all, and Castro is an accomplished shortstop who's still only 25 years old and under control for four more years at around $40 million. And though the promise of his first three seasons has evaporated in the last three, new scenery could change that.
Of course, it's not normal for a contending team like the Cubs to trade its starting shortstop in the middle of a pennant race. But no worries. Addison Russell can easily be moved from second to his natural shortstop position, and the team can fill their second base need by promoting Arismendy Alcantara or Javier Baez.
All told, this deal would see the Padres dumping Shields' contract while getting a young and reasonably cheap reclamation project at shortstop, and the Cubs line up for a push at the postseason with a rotation of Lester, Shields, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel.
Red Sox Trade Hanley Ramirez (and $) to Mets for Zack Wheeler
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With one of baseball's worst offenses on their hands, the New York Mets need an impact bat like Popeye needs spinach. The problem is just about every report indicates they're not willing to part with enough money or prospects to solve the problem.
Which is why they should put in a call to the Boston Red Sox and inquire about Hanley Ramirez.
With a .776 OPS and 19 home runs, Ramirez is adding yet another quality offensive season to a career resume that's full of 'em. Hence why the Mets should be interested in him, and Michael Cuddyer's ongoing knee troubles mean that left field wouldn't necessarily be closed to Ramirez upon his arrival.
But while the Mets would presumably be happy to take on Ramirez's bat, they likely want nothing to do with the $68.25 million he's owed over the next three years. To acquire Ramirez, they'd need the Red Sox to eat most or even all of that.
That's an idea Boston might not be opposed to at this point. Though Ramirez has hit well, he's done more than enough to show the Red Sox he should be DH'ing rather than playing left field. That's a complication with David Ortiz locked up for a few more years. Another complication still is that, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported, Ramirez has "irked" some members of the Red Sox with his behavior.
But the Red Sox obviously aren't going to eat Ramirez's contract for nothing. They'd need to get something in return. Even if it's just a high-upside wild card.
Enter Zack Wheeler.
The hard-throwing right-hander is watching from the sidelines as he spends 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Mets haven't missed him. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard look like MLB's next great pitching trio, and Steven Matz showed promise in the two starts he was able to make. All of a sudden, Wheeler looks expendable.
The Red Sox could be more than happy to take him. Wheeler may be injured now, but he should be 100 percent healthy by early 2016. And at that point, he'll still only be 25 and will have four seasons of club control left. A guy like that could be a major get for a Red Sox team that badly needs pitching.
In all, this deal would see the Mets get the bat they badly need and the Red Sox turn a problem contract into a pitching lottery ticket. Cheers all around.
Dodgers Trade Yasiel Puig to Phillies for Cole Hamels
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We've talked about the Dodgers making a deal for an impact reliever, but what they really want is an impact starter. This, according to, well, everyone.
But the most notable report to come out recently came from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and it said the Dodgers are eyeing Cueto and Cole Hamels. The former is the better pitcher, but the latter has the advantage of not being a rental. With Zack Greinke likely to exercise his opt-out clause this winter, that makes Hamels especially appealing.
As a bonus, Heyman says the Philadelphia Phillies are backing off their demand for a boatload of prospects for Hamels. They may be willing to consider alternative options, which leads us to this bit of goodness from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
"The noise is growing louder on Puig and his low favorability among teammates, according to a major league source...Where Puig used to be untouchable because of his tremendous ability, the Dodgers don’t seem to feel that way now. Would they move him for a pitcher? And would the Phillies take him in a Cole Hamels package?
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Would the Dodgers move Puig for a pitcher? Given his apparently declining popularity in the Dodgers clubhouse and the fact that they need a pitcher more than they need his bat, the answer should be yes.
But would the Phillies take him in a package for Hamels? The answer to that should also be yes.
The Phillies may prefer a boatload of prospects for Hamels, but that wish isn't going to be granted this summer. A 31-year-old lefty with a 3.31 career ERA and an expensive contract isn't worth a boatload of prospects to begin with, and the market for Hamels isn't crowded enough for a bidding war. If the Phillies are going to deal Hamels, it'll have to be for the next best thing.
To that end, it's hard to imagine anything better than Puig. He may be in a rut now—he's OPS'ing "just" .776 this season—but he's still a 24-year-old who was one of the game's best players in 2013 and 2014. A change of scenery and a move to Citizens Bank Park could turn him back into a superstar.
If it comes to that, the Phillies would have two options. They could hold onto Puig and try to build a winner around him before his contract expires after 2018. Or they could take advantage of his rejuvenation by swapping him for more prospects than they could ever hope to swap Hamels for.
Meanwhile, on the other end, dealing Puig for Hamels would give the Dodgers the starter they badly need behind Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. And if that trio were to be backed by a bullpen featuring Chapman and Jansen, they could find themselves coasting to the World Series title they so desperately crave.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.


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