Picking Each Division Winner Entering the Heart of the 2025 NFL Season

The heart of the 2025 NFL season is here, and all but about a dozen NFL teams are within striking distance of the top spot in their division. 

Which eight teams will finish on top?

Let's work it out.

AFC East

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Josh Allen and Drake Maye

The Leader: New England Patriots (5-2)

The Challenger: Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Who'll Win It: Buffalo 

The Bills have already lost to the Patriots, and their four wins have come over teams with a combined record of 3-24. That said, this is basically the same team that has won each of the last five AFC East titles. 

The Patriots have also feasted on a weak schedule. They're a younger team with more holes to be exploited as the season wears on. They're good enough to earn a wild-card spot, but I don't think they can sustain this.

I'm expecting a hiccup against Cleveland and/or Atlanta the next two weeks.

AFC North

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Aaron Rodgers

The Leader: Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

The Challengers: Cincinnati Bengals (3-4), Baltimore Ravens (1-5)

Who'll Win It: Pittsburgh

I'm not counting the Ravens out just yet because Pittsburgh has its flaws on both sides of the ball and there's no telling how Aaron Rodgers will deal with the second half of the season.

Baltimore is too good not to rebound and make this interesting, but this team has defensive problems beyond the Lamar Jackson injury and still has six more road games after this week's tough matchup with Chicago. 

Cincinnati is intriguing because the Bengals beat Pittsburgh in Week 7 and could still get Joe Burrow back. I just can't see that team surviving a post-Week 10 bye stretch against the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Bills and Ravens again.

AFC South

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Daniel Jones

The Leader: Indianapolis Colts (6-1)

The Challengers: Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3), Houston Texans (2-4)

Who'll Win It: Indianapolis

A couple of weeks ago, I would have been all over the Jags here. But they've laid back-to-back eggs at home and in London, and now they're falling apart with just four home games remaining on their schedule. 

Do I trust Daniel Jones? Not completely, but Indy was competitive with Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last year, and Gardner Minshew II and Richardson in 2023. I trust them more than the Jags or Texans, as Shane Steichen is doing a fantastic job.

AFC West

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Andy Reid

The Leader: Denver Broncos (5-2)

The Challengers: Kansas City Chiefs (4-3), Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

Who'll Win It: Kansas City

We can't ignore the fact that the Broncos played extremely poorly for the majority of a Week 7 comeback victory over the Giants. They also could have easily lost to the Jets in London in Week 6. Their luck may run out against Dallas in Week 8. 

Regardless, the Chiefs feel inevitable. They've completely overcome their September struggles and are healthier than they've been all season.

Patrick Mahomes has found a groove, and he still gets two head-to-head matchups with Denver as well as a rematch with the slumping Chargers.

NFC East

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Jalen Hurts

The Leader: Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

The Challengers: Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1), Washington Commanders (3-4)

Who'll Win It: Philadelphia

These Eagles feel a bit like the 2024 Chiefs. They aren't executing too well on either side of the ball, but they're a veteran team finding ways to win.

They've got a multiple-game lead on Dallas along with the tiebreaker at this stage, and Washington is in shambles as a result of offensive injuries and defensive inadequacies. 

You never know with the wild NFC East, which hasn't had a repeat winner in 20 years. But it seems that trend will finally be bucked in 2025. 

NFC North

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Dan Campbell

The Leader: Green Bay Packers (4-1-1)

The Challengers: Detroit Lions (5-2), Chicago Bears (4-2), Minnesota Vikings (3-3)

Who'll Win It: Detroit

The Packers are good pretty much everywhere but great pretty much nowhere, while the Lions continue to have a higher ceiling on offense.

Detroit has outscored its opponents by 9.1 points per game, compared to just 5.5 points for Green Bay. The Bears and Vikings are both at least a year away with negative scoring margins (Chicago) or non-winning records and quarterback questions (Minnesota). 

The Lions don't have the tiebreaker with Green Bay right now, but that could change when they host the Packers next month. They survived the early-season growing pains associated with losing both coordinators and now appear destined to overtake their rivals in the second half of the season. 

NFC South

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Baker Mayfield

The Leader: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)

The Challengers: Carolina Panthers (4-3), Atlanta Falcons (3-3)

Who'll Win It: Tampa Bay

Gutted by injuries, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't look remotely like a contender in a Week 7 loss to Detroit.

The Bucs also have a negative scoring margin despite their record, and Carolina will still get two shots at them later this season. In other words, this is wide open.

That said, I still don't trust the inconsistent Falcons, while Carolina's remaining schedule is a nightmare in comparison to those other two NFC South contenders.

NFC West

AP Photo/Jessie Alcheh

Kyle Shanahan

The Leader: Los Angeles Rams (5-2) 

The Challengers: Seattle Seahawks (5-2), San Francisco 49ers (5-2)

Who'll Win It: San Francisco

The 49ers are the most injured team in the history of the world, but they're a well-coached veteran squad that regularly finds ways to win. They also have a breeze of a schedule, even in comparison to the Seahawks and Rams. 

Throw in that San Francisco has already defeated both Seattle and Los Angeles on the road this season, and I'm willing to bet the Niners pull this off in a battle of three deeply flawed teams.