2025 NFL Week 7 Expert Picks
For consecutive weeks, bettors cashed in on underdogs. As was the case in Week 5, nine of them covered spreads last week.
Let's see what our expert panel thinks about the seven home underdogs on the upcoming slate.
Bleacher Report's betting crew, analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell, mostly hovered around .500 last week.
Hanford and Moton led the panel with 9-6 records, and Gagnon hit on his lone-wolf pick of Atlanta Falcons to make up some ground.
For Week 7, we have a unanimous selection favoring a struggling team coming off back-to-back losses facing a club with a winning record fresh out of a bye week. One of our experts will be a lone wolf late Monday night.
Eight of the 15 games have point spreads of a field goal or less. Buckle up, we're probably in for another week of wild finishes.
Check out our leaderboard standings—all records against the spread—and how our experts broke down Week 7 games.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 50-43
T-2. Hanford: 48-45
T-2: Knox: 48-45
T-4. O'Donnell: 46-47
T-4. Sobleski: 46-47
6. Gagnon: 44-49
7. Davenport: 43-50
Lone-Wolf Picks: 9-8
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Oct. 14, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
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Hanford: Bengals (+5.5)
The Steelers are in the driver's seat for the moment in the AFC North, but this one feels like a trap game for Mike Tomlin.
Pittsburgh is 0-6 against AFC North opponents on Thursday Night Football under Tomlin and 2-8 on the road. Joe Flacco isn't necessarily scaring anyone, but he knows the Steelers and is capable of playing smart football with a few big plays mixed in to keep this game closer than expected.
Aaron Rodgers has looked solid this season, but we see a Steelers clunker that ends in an ugly, low-scoring loss.
Knox: Steelers (-5.5)
In another short-week divisional game, what could go wrong with picking the road favorite? A lot, actually, especially considering Tomlin can't seem to beat divisional opponents on Thursday nights.
Of course, Zac Taylor has an abysmal record without Joe Burrow, so something has to give here. In what's likely to feel like a neutral-site game—Steelers fans travel—I expect Pittsburgh to escape with a touchdown victory.
Predictions
Steelers: Knox, Sobleski
Bengals: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell
Los Angeles Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) in London
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Gagnon: Jaguars (+3)
I have Jacksonville winning this straight-up in its second home of Wembley Stadium.
The Rams are pretty banged-up offensively and are oddly spending the week in Baltimore before flying to London.
It's not a great plan or situation for them, and Jacksonville's defense has been very good this season.
Hanford: Rams (-3)
The Jaguars have been a surprise this season, but this one is pretty simple for me.
Despite its overall success, Jacksonville's pass defense is still one of the worst in football. Even if Puka Nacua can't play or is hobbled, Matthew Stafford is still one of the best passers of the football in the NFL.
These London games are difficult to judge, but the Rams are the better overall team.
Stafford makes enough plays even without his star WR to get the job done across the pond.
Predictions
Rams: Hanford, Knox, Sobleski
Jaguars: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell
New England Patriots (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-5)
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Moton: Patriots (-7)
While some of the panelists will give Tennessee an interim head coaching bump, let's remember rookie quarterback Cam Ward may not have his top wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who's battling a hamstring injury.
Don't fall for the boost of a new coach in this spot. In an effort to get Mike Vrabel a win over the team he led for six seasons, the Patriots will likely play spirited ball as well. They cover back-to-back road spreads.
O'Donnell: Titans (+7)
Take the points—particularly in games that you're getting between a touchdown (+6) to 8.5 points—at least once a week. In a season filled with the parity the NFL has been longing for, one touchdown-ish favorites aren't just failing to cover but they're also losing outright since Week 2 (see: PHI in Week 6, LAR and ARI in Week 5, LAC in Week 4 and GB in Week 3).
The Patriots are on a winning streak. Three straight victories and three straight ATS over the last three weeks. But this is Super-Maye and the Pats' third straight road game and, in case you missed it, the Titans are the first NFL team to fire its head coach this season.
Give me that fired-up, new-coach boost over Vrabel's former team narrative. Don't be surprised if the Titans pull an outright upset—the Pats aren't fully there yet—and even if they don't, this number at home bodes well for Tennessee. NFL teams are 6-3 ATS the week after a coach firing since 2022.
Predictions
Patriots: Davenport, Moton
Titans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
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Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
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Hanford: Eagles (-2.5)
I'm a little surprised the entire crew is on the Eagles here, as they are struggling in every possible way at the moment. However, they're still 4-2, and I expect they're not thrilled after getting a beatdown at the hands of the Giants last week.
The Vikings defense has been very good this season, but it has struggled to stop the run, so this is a game where a rested Philadelphia team can lean on Saquon Barkley enough to eke out a win by a field goal.
Moton: Eagles (-2.5)
This feels too good to be true with all of the panel on the Eagles' side, but it makes sense in this spot.
The Vikings have two ailing quarterbacks going into this matchup. Starting signal-caller J.J. McCarthy is recovering from a high ankle sprain, and backup Carson Wentz suffered a shoulder injury in London two weeks ago.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell hasn't named a starter, but it may not matter in terms of the spread. The Eagles just need to win by a field goal on the road, which shouldn't be hard to do against a team with a banged-up QB room and three starting offensive linemen on the mend from injuries as well.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Jets (0-6)
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Gagnon: Jets (+2.5)
Just like with Jacksonville, I have the Jets pulling off the full upset as a small underdog at home. Three of their six losses have come by exactly two points, and against much better opponents than the Panthers.
Carolina is playing well, but making it a road favorite against a team with similar, if not superior, talent is silly. The Panthers are 0-3 away from home this year.
Moton: Panthers (-2.5)
Normally, you would fade the Panthers on the road with this spread. Away from home, they're 1-15 straight-up with Bryce Young as their starting quarterback. They needed garbage time to cover the spread against the spread in Arizona a month ago, but bettors should go against the trend in this spot because of the opponent.
The winless Jets won't have star wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who will miss this contest with a knee injury. Justin Fields, who's coming off a dreadful performance in which he finished with 45 passing yards, may throw for fewer than 50 yards in a game for the third time this season.
Carolina's defense ranks ninth against the run. It's fair to wonder how Gang Green will score Sunday.
Panthers win by a field goal to go over .500 for the first time since 2021.
Predictions
Panthers: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jets: Davenport, Gagnon
Miami Dolphins (1-5) at Cleveland Browns (1-5)
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Knox: Browns (-2.5)
It's shocking to see the Browns actually favored in a game. It's even more shocking that I'm going to back them as favorites, given the sorry state of Cleveland's offense.
Miami's defense is equally bad, though. It's been particularly vulnerable to the run, and Quinshon Judkins is the one reliable thing the Browns have offensively.
If Kevin Stefanski calls 50-plus pass attempts in this one, he's either openly tanking or trying to get himself fired.
Sobleski: Dolphins (+2.5)
The Dolphins are on the precipice of collapse. Either a significant turnaround needs to occur or change may be forthcoming.
While the Browns aren't much better off, Miami's position feels far more desperate, which means it should be far more motivated for a better showing.
The Dolphins have the better quarterback in this matchup, and they're getting points. Plus, the Browns defense doesn't look nearly as difficult to manage after last week's encounter with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Predictions
Dolphins: Davenport, Sobleski
Browns: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
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Davenport: Raiders (+11.5)
The Chiefs appear to be figuring it out after last week's win over Detroit and will have wide receiver Rashee Rice back for this AFC West tilt.
The Raiders are bad again, but they play the Chiefs tough at Arrowhead. Vegas won outright there in 2023 and lost in 2022 and 2024 by a combined three points.
Kansas City will win this game, but the spread is a bridge too far.
Moton: Chiefs (-11.5)
When you come across a division matchup with a double-digit spread, it's safe to take the underdog, but not in this scenario.
The Raiders didn't look impressive in a 20-10 win over the Tennessee Titans last week. Geno Smith dinked and dunked his way to 174 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Left tackle Kolton Miller is out with an ankle injury, and his replacement, Stone Forsythe, has allowed two sacks, per Pro Football Focus.
Meanwhile, Kansas City just held the Detroit Lions' high-powered offense to 17 points and scored 30.
The Chiefs will welcome back wideout Rashee Rice from a six-game suspension, giving them more offensive firepower against a team outscored 41-24 and 40-6 in its last two games with a 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
This divisional battle could go completely sideways for the Silver and Black in the first half.
Predictions
Raiders: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chiefs: Knox, Moton
New Orleans Saints (1-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
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Davenport: Bears (-5.5)
Could the Bears actually be good? It's an unnerving proposition, but after three straight wins, Chicago has some positive momentum.
The Saints have shown some fight this season, but New Orleans is still a one-win team that has lost by six or more points four times this year.
Lay the points. It's time to believe in Caleb Williams and Chicago.
Sobleski: Saints (+5.5)
At this point, the Saints have proved they're a difficult opponent, even with a 1-5 record. Three of those five losses were by only one score. The team won just two weekends ago. Spencer Rattler is actually playing relatively well, too.
The Bears aren't the same caliber of opponent as the Buffalo Bills or Seattle Seahawks, who blew out the Saints earlier this year.
Take the points, even if the Saints find another way to lose.
Predictions
Saints: Hanford, Sobleski
Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
New York Giants (2-4) at Denver Broncos (4-2)
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Moton: Broncos (-7)
Everyone loves the young New York Giants.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo injected palpable energy and hope into the franchise with a stunning 34-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday. They will lead this team in close battles and more wins this season, but not on Sunday.
The Denver Broncos narrowly beat the New York Jets 13-11 last week in London, but they're coming back home, where they've outscored opponents by more than seven points in two outings against the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals.
Even without Malik Nabers, Big Blue is better than both of those teams, but the last time we saw the Giants on the road, they lost 26-14 to the New Orleans Saints. The Broncos are far better than the Saints and the Giants, too.
O'Donnell: Giants (+7)
I'm 2-4 in picking Giants games this season. Both wins felt like locks, but the other four games, I've been woefully wrong.
The trends for this game point to the Broncos. Since last season, Denver is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games and 7-1 as home favorites. The Giants are coming off a mini-bye following their TNF triumph over the rival Eagles—arguably the biggest win of the Brian Daboll era since his first season in New York.
Denver's defense is that good, but the club struggled mightily offensively against the Jets in London a week ago.
Touchdown-ish underdogs have been winning games this season, and while I should be on Denver, I'm following the narrative for the Giants in hopes I can get the right read on this team once and for all.
Predictions
Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Broncos: Knox, Moton
Indianapolis Colts (5-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
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Davenport: Chargers (-1.5)
Given how well the Colts have played most of the season, it's a wonder the Chargers are favored at all, especially after barely scraping by a bad Miami Dolphins team in Week 6.
However, Indy's one misstep this year happened at SoFi Stadium in Week 4, and while Daniel Jones is one of the biggest surprise stories of 2025, Justin Herbert is still the better quarterback in this contest. He'll lead the Bolts to another tight win.
Sobleski: Colts (+1.5)
The most impressive part of the Colts' 5-1 record is that they're finding ways to win. In previous years, they were unable to do so. Daniel Jones has been nails this season, particularly late in contests when they've been tight.
Furthermore, the Chargers find themselves among the league's bottom 12 in run defense with the league's leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, coming into town.
The Colts defense may struggle when facing Justin Herbert, but the offense can go punch-for-punch with anyone in the league.
Predictions
Colts: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Chargers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox
Green Bay Packers (3-1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
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Gagnon: Cardinals (+6.5)
Green Bay couldn't beat Cleveland or Dallas on the road. No way I'm laying nearly a touchdown with the Packers in Arizona, where the Cardinals haven't lost by more than a field goal in any of their last five games.
A desperate Arizona team will at least keep this close at home.
Knox: Packers (-6.5)
I'm probably going to regret picking the Packers, given what I've seen from them in recent weeks. Their defense hasn't traveled well, and the offense hasn't played a particularly clean brand of ball.
I just don't think Arizona will be able to replicate the unexpected offensive success it had in Week 6.
The Cardinals offense might really be better with Jacoby Brissett behind center than with Kyler Murray, but injuries at running back and to Marvin Harrison Jr. will make it hard to keep pace with Green Bay.
Predictions
Packers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Cardinals: Gagnon, Sobleski
Washington Commanders (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1)
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Gagnon: Cowboys (+2.5)
One more time for me with a slight home underdog winning straight-up.
Washington is on the road on short rest, and something is off with the Commanders on both sides of the ball right now. That said, because this is a tricky NFC East battle between unpredictable teams, consider buying up to +3 if possible.
O'Donnell: Commanders (-2.5)
Something just seems to be missing for the Commanders right now. Yes, that's probably Terry McLaurin.
A brutal MNF loss has to be ringing in Jayden Daniels' head right now. Washington's offense will not be the potential clock-killing wrecking ball it was a year ago without Scary Terry, but it gets the Cowboys this week.
The Dallas "defense" gives up the most yards per game and the second-most points per game in the league. A shootout may ensue, but I'm willing to bet on the better overall team in what feels like a must-win game this early in the season for Washington.
Predictions
Commanders: Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Cowboys: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Sobleski
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
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Hanford: Falcons (+2.5)
I think both teams want this game to be a slog, but that works in Atlanta's favor right now.
With Fred Warner out after suffering a major ankle injury in Week 6, the Falcons will look to control the clock with Bijan Robinson on the ground, and they can do it.
They have done a mostly good job protecting Michael Penix Jr. this season, and the 49ers' pass rush has been toothless all season, so San Francisco's defense may have trouble getting off the field.
The Falcons travel to the West Coast on a short week and spoil Brock Purdy's return with a big win.
O'Donnell: 49ers (-2.5)
The Falcons just thumped the Bills on MNF. The Atlanta defense is playing really well, and Bijan Robinson looks like CMC in his prime.
Yet, somehow, Atlanta enters this Week 7 game as road dogs to an injury-ravaged 49ers team. I reckon most folks are tired of hearing how banged-up San Francisco is at this point.
George Kittle may be back this week, which is quite important but may not be as important as trying to overcome Warner's absence. It's an exhausting narrative, and yet bookmakers still clearly think highly of Kyle Shanahan's team.
What's funny, however, is that since Purdy's first full season as a starter (2023), the Niners are a paltry 7-13 ATS at home.
This game should scream "take the points" with Atlanta, so I'm taking the Niners.
Predictions
Falcons: Gagnon, Hanford, Sobleski
49ers: Davenport, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
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Hanford: Lions (-5.5)
The idea of betting against Baker Mayfield right now causes me to break out in a cold sweat, but I don't like picking against the Lions at home, either.
Detroit boasts the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL at the moment, and while Mayfield is the runaway leader for MVP currently, he's also potentially going to be without his top three WRs.
It feels like Mayfield has pulled off incredible feats every week this season, but the task is too tall against an explosive Lions offense and a defense that has found its pass rush again.
Give me the healthier Lions team by a touchdown in prime time.
Knox: Buccaneers (+5.5)
All of the injuries may finally catch up to the Buccaneers this week, as they'll be on the road against a good Lions team in prime time.
I still think Mayfield and the Bucs will find a way to keep it close, though. Tampa's offense matches up well with an already-suspect secondary that could be without Terrion Arnold, Avonte Maddox, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
The Lions may win anyway, but they'll struggle to pull away.
Predictions
Buccaneers: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell
Lions: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Houston Texans (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
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Davenport: Seahawks (-3)
After three straight losses to open the season, Houston comes out of the bye riding the momentum of two straight blowout wins. But those wins came against a terrible Tennessee team and what's left of the Ravens.
Seattle took care of business last week against the 4-1 Jaguars on the road, and Sam Darnold is intent on showing that last year's success in Minnesota was no fluke. Houston's offensive line also remains a hot mess.
In front of a raucous home crowd in prime time, the Seahawks will get it done to keep pace in the NFC West.
Sobleski: Texans (+3)
The Seahawks are clearly the better team than the Texans, but don't underestimate the power of a bye and having two weeks to prepare for an opponent.
Houston holds that particular advantage in this matchup, which should allow the Texans to play their best after self-scouting during their downtime and making adjustments.
Again, Seattle is legit and should be favored. At the same time, this Texans squad should be a different entity entering this contest, at least enough to keep it close.
Predictions
Texans: Sobleski
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
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