MLB Playoffs 2025 ALCS, NLCS Bracket Picks and Predictions
What began seven months ago as a dream for 30 teams has now been whittled down to a tangible reality for Major League Baseball's final four candidates for the 2025 World Series.
That the Los Angeles Dodgers are still standing is hardly a surprise. The reigning champions were the overwhelming World Series favorite heading into the season, spending most of the year as the betting favorite until dipping slightly behind the Phillies when it became clear they might not end up with even a first-round bye. But no one ever exactly threw in the towel on them as a very strong candidate to run it back again.
If you somehow called this whole quartet before the season began, though, you might be some sort of sorcerer.
None of Seattle, Milwaukee or Toronto ranked among the 11 teams who opened the year at +2500 or better to win the World Series, with preseason win totals of 84.5, 83.5 and 78.5, respectively.
Here they are, though, one step away from the grandest stage.
Will it be Brewers-Mariners, with a first title in franchise history going either to the current Seattle team or the one that took the Pilots away from Seattle in 1970?
Or could it be Dodgers-Blue Jays, in which a plane would actually be carrying Shohei Ohtani from Los Angeles to Toronto?
We've highlighted a few batter/pitcher matchups, storylines and X-factors to keep an eye on in each forthcoming LCS battle, culminating in predictions.
ALCS Schedule
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All Games on FOX/FS1
Game 1 (Sun. Oct. 12): Seattle @ Toronto, 8:03 p.m. ET
Game 2 (Mon. Oct. 13): Seattle @ Toronto, 5:03 p.m. ET
Game 3 (Wed. Oct. 15): Toronto @ Seattle, TBD start
Game 4 (Thu. Oct. 16): Toronto @ Seattle, TBD start
Game 5 (Fri. Oct. 17): Toronto @ Seattle, TBD start [if necessary]
Game 6 (Sun. Oct. 19): Seattle @ Toronto, TBD start [if necessary]
Game 7 (Mon. Oct. 20): Seattle @ Toronto, TBD start [if necessary]
ALCS Key Matchups and Biggest Storyline
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Alejandro Kirk vs. Seattle's Current Pitching Staff: 19-for-50 (.380 AVG), .920 OPS—Kirk went 3-for-8 in that wild card loss to the M's in 2022, and he has been quite the thorn in Seattle's side ever since. Narrow the data set to exclude everything before that series and he's 24-for-56 (.429) against Seattle over the past 1,100 or so days, albeit with only one home run.
Daulton Varsho vs. Seattle's Current Pitching Staff: 8-for-42 (.190 AVG), .495 OPS—Along with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement, Varsho was one of three Blue Jays to post an OPS north of 1.400 while knocking the Yankees out of the ALDS. But Seattle has had his number more than any other team over the years, both with a .495 OPS against current Mariners and a .497 OPS against the team in his career.
Cal Raleigh vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 23-for-84, 10 HR, 1.016 OPS—Toronto is the only team outside of the AL West against whom Raleigh has at least 10 career home runs, though he had just one in their six matchups in 2025, compared to five in five games back in 2023. In particular, he has hit Kevin Gausman well, going 6-for-14 with three solo shots.
Andrés Muñoz vs. Current Blue Jays Batters: 1-for-23, 1 BB, 6 K—As if we didn't already know Seattle had the advantage in the closer battle between Muñoz and Jeff Hoffman, history is definitely not on Toronto's side if trying to make a ninth inning comeback in this series. The lone hit was a single by Anthony Santander in June 2023 while with the Orioles.
Biggest Storyline: For the First Time in Forever...
Apologies to all the parents in the audience for triggering those deep-rooted Frozen songs, but, listen, the window is open and so's that door. Toronto hasn't been to the World Series since winning the final two before the players' strike in 1994, while Seattle is hoping to win its first pennant in 49 years of club history, desperate to be rid of the "only active franchise without a World Series appearance" stigma.
Seattle swept Toronto out of the wild card round three years ago in their only previous postseason meeting, including that outrageous comeback from an 8-1 deficit in Game 2.
Will the Blue Jays exact their revenge? Or will the M's finally make it to the promised land before celebrating their bicentennial?
ALCS Biggest X-Factors
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Offensive Momentum
From Sept. 6-27, Seattle's offense was a blistering inferno, scoring 126 runs in 20 games. Meanwhile, Toronto was ice cold at the dish with 74 runs scored.
But the worm turned on the final day of the regular season. The Blue Jays exploded for 13 runs to clinch the No. 1 seed and proceeded to average better than nine runs per game in the ALDS. Simultaneously, the Mariners ended the regular season with a one-run dud before averaging fewer than four runs per game (and nearly 12 strikeouts per game) in their ALDS.
Can Toronto stay hot? Can Seattle's big bats wake up?
Stolen Bases
The primary catchers in this series, Cal Raleigh and Alejandro Kirk were both ever so slightly below the league average of 22 percent in the caught stealing department during the regular season. Raleigh cut down 21-of-99 attempts in his 1,072 innings behind the plate while Kirk went 17-for-86 in his 965.1 innings.
While that's pretty much a wash, Seattle's aggressiveness could be a series changer. The M's stole 161 bases during the regular season compared to Toronto's 77. In fact, Seattle led the majors with 76 swipes in the second half, anchored by Josh Naylor's out-of-nowhere greatness on the basepaths.
Injuries
Seattle's Bryan Woo (pectoral tightness) and Toronto's Bo Bichette (knee sprain) and Chris Bassitt (back inflammation) were all unavailable for the ALDS, but it's possible all three could be back for the ALCS. Considering Woo was the M's best starting pitcher, Bassitt was the Blue Jays' No. 2 arm and Bichette was leading the majors in total hits when he got hurt, the health of that trio isn't exactly a minor detail.
ALCS Prediction
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The Pick: Toronto in Six Games
As I suspect is the case for a large swath of American fans of baseball in the 30-45 age range, my heart wants Seattle. Because of Ken Griffey Jr., the Mariners have always been sort of a "secondary favorite" team. But even setting aside boyhood idols, if you don't have a dog in this fight, it's just hard to not gravitate toward pulling for the team that's never made it to the World Series.
However, after enduring a bit of a power outage for a big chunk of September, the Blue Jays bats that raked their way through the summer are back with a vengeance.
In 56 games from July 1 through Sept. 3, the Jays hit .289/.355/.491 and scored 334 runs, leading the majors in all four categories. And with $500M man Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way, they eviscerated the Yankees in the ALDS to the tune of a .338/.373/.601 triple slash.
Seattle has the better rotation, the more reliable closer and (at least during the regular season) the greater knack for mashing home runs with 238 to Toronto's 191.
But it's the Blue Jays who come into this thing on fire, with home-field advantage and with a budding ace in Trey Yesavage who has yet to allow a home run in nearly 20 innings of work in the majors. If he's able to keep Seattle in the yard as the likely starter in both Games 2 and 6, there will be World Series games in Canada for the first time in more than three decades.
NLCS Schedule
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All Games on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
Game 1 (Mon. Oct. 13): Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, 8:08 p.m. ET
Game 2 (Tue. Oct. 14): Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, 8:08 p.m. ET
Game 3 (Thu. Oct. 16): Milwaukee @ Los Angeles, TBD start
Game 4 (Fri. Oct. 17): Milwaukee @ Los Angeles, TBD start
Game 5 (Sat. Oct. 18): Milwaukee @ Los Angeles, TBD start [if necessary]
Game 6 (Mon. Oct. 20): Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, TBD start [if necessary]
Game 7 (Tue. Oct. 21): Los Angeles @ Milwaukee, TBD start [if necessary]
NLCS Key Matchups and Biggest Storyline
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Shohei Ohtani vs. Current Brewers Pitchers: 12-for-34, 7 HR, 1.447 OPS—Ohtani has twice taken Freddy Peralta deep in nine ABs. He has a home run, a walk and a strikeout in three plate appearances against Jacob Misiorowski. Just about the only Brewer who has fared well against the unicorn is left-handed reliever Jared Koenig at 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. And Pat Murphy may well plan on saving Koenig for exactly that spot in the sixth or seventh inning of every game of this series.
Teoscar Hernández vs. Current Brewers Pitchers: 3-for-27, 1 HR, .432 OPS—Teo's lone home run off a Brewer came against Grant Anderson, who wasn't even a Brewer at the time and who is mostly a mop-up guy for them, unlikely to be in the game in a key situation. It isn't just current Brewers, either. In 17 career games against Milwaukee, Hernández has a .421 OPS with 21 strikeouts and no home runs.
Freddy (Peralta) vs. Freddie (Freeman): 6-for-26, 1 HR, 5 K—After pitching in Game 4 against the Cubs, Milwaukee's ace ought to be on the bump for Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 6. As a whole, current Dodgers have hit .216 against him, including the aforementioned two dingers by Ohtani. But it'd be huge if he can limit Freeman, who is 3-for-19 with six strikeouts in his last five games.
Brewers Hitters vs. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell: 15-for-104 (.144 AVG), 3 HR, 40 K—If this trend continues, god speed to the Brew Crew. It's worth noting that two of the three home runs were hit by Danny Jansen off Tyler Glasnow, and Jansen didn't even make an appearance for the Brewers in the NLDS.
Biggest Storyline: Money for Nothing, Hits for Free
For most of the regular season, the Dodgers had more money on the IL than the Brewers' entire payroll. Los Angeles is also projected to pay more in luxury tax ($169M) than Milwaukee's entire payroll ($146M). And of the combined total of 18 players who had a payroll salary of at least $8.2M from one of these two teams in 2025, only two (Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins) are Brewers.
Last year's Yankees-Guardians had about a $245M differential in total amount spent on the roster, but this one is an absolute chasm with $440M separating the two teams.
And yet, it was the Brewers who won all six matchups during the regular season, the Brewers who had the best record in baseball and the Brewers who could be laughing all the way to the bank if they win this series.
NLCS Biggest X-Factors
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Stolen Bases
Much like the ALCS matchup, one of these teams loves to run a whole lot more than the other does.
Notably, one of Milwaukee's top threats for stolen bases, Jackson Chourio is playing through a hamstring injury. It's not likely he'll be risking further aggravation on that front with steals, but he's just one of seven Brewers who stole at least 14 bases, as only the Tampa Bay Rays were more aggressive on the basepaths this season.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers stole about half as many bags (88) as Milwaukee (164) during the regular season, attempted just 13 in their final 33 regular-season games and did not have an official stolen base attempt in their first six postseason games.
Running on Will Smith is risky, but so is running on William Contreras, both of whom threw out 27 percent of stolen base attempts. Could Milwaukee literally steal the series, though?
Homer Disparity
Milwaukee hit a trio of solo home runs in Game 5 of the NLDS on Saturday, but the Dodgers hit 78 more home runs than the Brewers during the regular season.
Can Milwaukee's pitchers keep Ohtani and Co. in the yard after allowing the Cubs to go off for nine home runs in that five-game series?
Head-to-Head History
Milwaukee swept the six games during the regular season, but the Dodgers swept in 2020 when these teams met in the wild card round and ousted the Brewers from the NLCS in seven games back in 2018. Is the third time the charm for Christian Yelich and Freddy Peralta?
NLCS Prediction
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The Pick: Los Angeles in Five Games
No matter which NL Central team won the big Game 5 clash on Saturday night, a big narrative heading into the NLCS was going to be that they won the head-to-head series with the Dodgers. The Brewers were the more emphatic victor via a six-game sweep, but the Cubs also took four-of-seven while averaging 6.0 runs per game.
Those games are ancient history, though. The LAD-CHC season series was over by the end of April, back when the Cubs had the best offense in the majors. The LAD-MIL series bookended the All-Star Break—which is both when Milwaukee was at its apex and Los Angeles was at its lowest point.
Success in October is all about getting hot at the right time. And after sleepwalking through most of the season, the Dodgers have become the freight train we expected them to be seven months ago. Not only have they won 14 of their last 17 games, but they've allowed more than five runs in just one of those contests. (Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 15-15 dating back to August 31.)
Getting Roki Sasaki back on the mound and into a relief role at the end of the regular season was basically a cheat code to unlocking their full potential. Since his return, he has gone 7.1 scoreless innings with two holds, two saves and just two hits allowed.
Now that the Dodgers seem to have their "lack of a reliable closer" issue sorted out while piggybacking starting pitchers to keep the conventional, problematic relievers out of high-leverage situations, it's hard to find a thermal exhaust port on this Death Star.
