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MLB Playoffs 2025 Wild Card and Round-by-Round Bracket Picks and Predictions
As always seems to be the case in Major League Baseball, 161 games spread across more than half of the calendar year wasn't enough.
Both the final spot in the National League bracket and basically all of the seeding on the American League side came down to the madness of 15 simultaneously occurring Game 162s.
Unlike last season, at least the weather cooperated and we didn't need a standalone doubleheader. But also unlike last season, the final day was none too kind to the New York Mets, leaving a lot of unanswered questions and turmoil heading into a busy offseason.
Enough of that collapse, though. Time to talk about the 12 who did make it, dissect these wild-card matchups and throw as educated a dart as we can at predicting who will battle for the World Series in a few short weeks.
AL Wild Card A: No. 6 Detroit Tigers at No. 3 Cleveland Guardians
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Schedule: 1 p.m. ET on ESPN (Tuesday-Thursday)
Regular-Season Series: Guardians 8-5 with a +12 run differential
Matchup to Watch: José Ramírez vs. Detroit Tigers
Including last year's ALDS, J-Ram has played in 140 games against Detroit since the beginning of 2017. And in what amounts to a bit less than a full season, he has triple-slashed .314/.396/.632 with 36 home runs, 122 RBI and 21 stolen bases. Even against the mighty Tarik Skubal, he's 12-for-36 (.333 AVG).
If the Tigers are to have any hope of winning this, they need to stifle Ramírez for a change.
X-Factor: Momentum
These teams crossed like two ships in the night in September, with Cleveland surging to an improbable division title with plenty of help from Detroit's epic freefall.
While the Guardians enter the playoffs having won 19 out of 23, the Tigers fittingly blew yet another lead on Sunday for their 22nd loss in 31 games.
Does Detroit rally or does Cleveland deliver the knockout blow weeks in the making?
Prediction: Guardians in 3
Though things have gone horribly for the Tigers lately, they do still have Skubal for Game 1, who has a combined line of 28.0 IP, 2 ER, 40 K against Cleveland this season. But that probably just means Detroit blows another lead on its way out the door.
NL Wild Card A: No. 5 San Diego Padres at No. 4 Chicago Cubs
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Schedule: 3 p.m. ET on ABC (Tuesday-Thursday)
Regular-Season Series: 3-3 split; 0 run differential
Matchup to Watch: Padres Stars vs. Wrigley Field
The friendly confines of Wrigley Field have been none too friendly to San Diego's well-compensated trio of hitters.
Manny Machado has a .743 OPS in 18 career games there. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s mark is .730 in 14 games. And Xander Bogaerts would rather hit anywhere else, saddled with a .495 OPS in 12 games there.
X-Factor: Cade Horton's Injury
Chicago's chances of winning it all took a nosedive on Saturday afternoon when news broke of Horton landing on the IL with a rib fracture. The possible NL Rookie of the Year had a 1.36 ERA dating back to the beginning of July and was likely going to start Game 2.
Instead, the Cubs will need to hope for the best with Shota Imanaga, who has a 5.17 ERA with 20 home runs allowed over his last 12 appearances.
Prediction: Cubs in 2
Between that history of Machado/Tatis/Bogaerts at Wrigley and the fact that the Padres were one of the worst slugging teams this season, we're rolling with the Cubbies at home.
AL Wild Card B: No. 5 Boston Red Sox at No. 4 New York Yankees
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Schedule: 6 p.m. ET on ESPN (Tuesday-Thursday)
Regular-Season Series: Red Sox 9-4 with a +15 run differential
Matchup to Watch: Garrett Crochet vs. New York Yankees
En route to what will be no worse than a second-place finish for AL Cy Young, Crochet pretty well owned the Yankees. The Red Sox won each of his four starts against them, in which he had a 3.29 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 12.8 K/9.
If he does it again, there's a very good chance Boston advances for what would be the fourth consecutive time when facing the Yankees in the postseason.
X-Factor: Boston's Other Starting Pitchers
For Boston's rotation, it will probably be Brayan Bello in Game 2 and (if necessary) Lucas Giolito in Game 3. And that was a much more promising proposition at the beginning of September than it is now, as neither was great down the stretch.
They did, however, allow a combined total of just three home runs in 44.2 innings pitched this month.
If they continue to limit the moonshots this week against what was by far the MLB leader in home runs, that's huge.
Prediction: Yankees in 3
Easily the most uncertain of the four wild-card series, and it feels like the winner parlays it into an ALDS victory over fellow AL East rival Toronto. But while Boston eked its way into the postseason with a mediocre run through September, New York is as hot as it has been all year, winning 14 of the last 17 games.
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NL Wild Card B: No. 6 Cincinnati Reds at No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers
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Schedule: 9 p.m. ET on ESPN (Tuesday-Thursday)
Regular-Season Series: Dodgers 5-1 with a +15 run differential
Matchup to Watch: Reds Pitchers vs. Shohei Ohtani
There are 12 teams against whom Ohtani has a career OPS north of 1.000, and 29 teams against whom he has at least a .700 OPS. Then there are the Reds, who have kind of owned the soon-to-be four-time MVP. He's 0-for-9 against Graham Ashcraft. Same goes for Nick Martinez. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene have held him in check, too.
X-Factor: Dodgers Bullpen
Tanner Scott has an MLB-most 10 blown saves. Blake Treinen hasn't been any better lately. And even if Kirby Yates was healthy, he has been a shell of what he was for the Rangers last season.
The Dodgers have been using Roki Sasaki and Clayton Kershaw out of the bullpen recently, and there has been talk of Ohtani as a reliever.
How Dave Roberts deploys his pitching staff is the biggest X-factor of the entire offseason.
Prediction: Dodgers in 3
It's tempting to pick the upset, as that Reds rotation is nasty. Unfortunately, so is L.A.'s, and the Dodgers' offense is much tougher to shut down than Cincinnati's is.
NLDS Predictions
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No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over No. 4 Chicago Cubs in 4 Games
The Cubs' chances would be higher if Cade Horton was healthy, or if Kyle Tucker and Daniel Palencia hadn't missed most of September, or if Shota Imanaga had shown better late-season form.
Because, goodness knows, September Milwaukee was nowhere near the wrecking ball that June-August Milwaukee was. And the Brewers have their own health concerns with Brandon Woodruff probably unavailable while the status of both Jose Quintana and closer Trevor Megill for this series is a great big TBD.
Hard to bet against Milwaukee, though, especially when it will have Freddy Peralta and the inexplicably invincible Quinn Priester on the mound at home for the first two games.
But maybe the Cubs can turn this into a slugfest of a series, building upon a September in which they hit 37 home runs to Milwaukee's 17.
No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 3 Los Angeles Dodgers in 5 Games
Who would have thought on May 18—when José Alvarado's 80-game suspension left the Phillies bullpen looking like a sea of wreckage while Dodgers closer Tanner Scott had a 1.74 ERA as the anchor of one of the best relief corps in the majors—that the deciding factor in this series could be Philadelphia's superior ability to avoid a bullpen collapse?
Since acquiring Jhoan Duran at the trade deadline, Phillies relievers have gone a combined 12-4 with an MLB-best 20 saves, while Dodgers relievers are 8-14 with an MLB-worst 11 blown saves to go along with just 13 successful conversions.
Maybe the recent experimenting with Roki Sasaki and Clayton Kershaw as one-inning relievers is the solution to what has ailed the Dodgers for months, but there probably will be at least one blown save that swings this series in Philadelphia's favor.
ALDS Predictions
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No. 4 New York Yankees over No. 1 Toronto Blue Jays in 4 Games
Desperate to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the ALCS, the Blue Jays deployed their ace, Kevin Gausman, in Game 162. And though he didn't pitch well, they did win the game and secured the AL's No. 1 seed, thanks to a couple of Alejandro Kirk homers.
But will it matter? Or will the combination of New York's torpedo bats and the ghost of going 0-6 across the past three trips to the postseason be too much to overcome?
Since losing Bo Bichette to a knee sprain in early September, Toronto's offense (Sunday's explosion notwithstanding) has not been the same, held to two runs or fewer in nine of their final 21 games.
And between having neither an elite ace nor a reliable closer, the Blue Jays aren't built to win pitcher's duels.
No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 3 Cleveland Guardians in 3 Games
Cleveland coming all the way back from 15.5 games back in early July and 12.5 games back in late August to win the AL Central will forever be the "Don't Forget About That Time" example that's mentioned when we try to prematurely bury a team that still has a pulse.
But taking what is arguably the most underwhelming pitching staff in this postseason field up against a scorching-hot Mariners offense sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Cleveland did win two out of three at home against Seattle in late August, and the Guardians are the only team against whom Cal Raleigh made at least 15 plate appearances this season without hitting a home run.
Never say never. But the M's probably should sweep here.
NLCS Prediction
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No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers in 5 Games
By the time this series begins, the hamstring injury which caused Trea Turner to miss 18 games down the stretch figures to be a distant memory.
And if he's back to looking anything like the phenom who hit .394/.438/.614 in the 29 games prior to the injury, the gap in offensive production between Turner and Brewers SS Joey Ortiz (who hasn't homered in his last 53 games played) could be insurmountable.
Equally noteworthy is Philadelphia's perceived pitching advantage.
Great as Freddy Peralta has been for Milwaukee, Cristopher Sánchez has been even more dominant for the Phillies. Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo have both been better than Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, too.
Jhoan Duran might be the best closer in baseball right now, while Brewers closer Trevor Megill's availability for the postseason (flexor strain) is unknown. And if Aaron Nola's eight inning, nine-strikeout gem on Friday was a sign of things to come in October, look out.
Then there's the Kyle Schwarber factor.
The Phillies DH hit more home runs this season (56) than Milwaukee's top two sluggers combined—Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio went for 50. When he gets on one of his heaters, all you can do is pray he cools off.
And few players love the NLCS more than Schwarber, going a combined 14-for-37 with 14 walks and eight home runs in his 12 games played between the 2022 and 2023 pennant-deciding rounds.
Milwaukee felt like the "Team of Destiny" for a good chunk of the season, but the Phillies have felt like the NL team to beat for about a month at this point, even after losing Zack Wheeler in mid-August.
ALCS Prediction
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No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 4 New York Yankees in 7 Games
Wouldn't it be fantastic if, just this once, we let the AL MVP voters wait until the end of the ALCS to submit their ballots?
New York had Seattle's number during the regular season, winning five of those six matchups. Aaron Judge went 8-for-23 with a 1.129 OPS while Cal Raleigh was held in check with an .802 OPS.
Both of those series came before the All-Star break, though, and things could be wildly different this time around—especially if Judge's well-documented October shortcomings continue, batting .181/.295/.363 over his last 42 postseason games.
This series is much bigger than just Judge vs. Raleigh, though, and it could be quite the home run derby, as these two clubs combined for more than 500 dingers during the regular season.
To that end, it's really a question of which pitching staff can do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard.
And, well, we shall see. Seattle's Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and George Kirby have a combined 2.57 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees, while New York's co-aces Max Fried and Carlos Rodón have combined for a 1.96 ERA in eight starts against the Mariners.
Could be an incredible series that goes the distance, perhaps culminating in Seattle's first-ever trip to the World Series.
World Series Prediction
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No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 2 Seattle Mariners in 7 Games
Admittedly, this has become the trendy, wishful-thinking World Series pairing.
Not only have the Phillies and Mariners been two of the hottest teams over the past two months, but if you were to rank the postseason teams by how fun they've been to watch this season, they are probably 1A and 1B on that list.
They each have four starting pitchers who could toss multiple quality starts in the postseason, as well as a closer who has been lights-out this season.
They each have one of the best sluggers in all of baseball in Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber, one of the game's more recognizable faces in Julio Rodríguez and Bryce Harper and a full-strength lineup in which even the 9-hole is a legitimate threat to do some damage.
Basically, these are the two teams in which it has become most difficult to poke holes, as was the case with the Dodgers and Yankees one year ago.
If they do square off for all the marbles, the sheer fact that the Phillies would have home-field advantage could be the difference-maker. Not only did Philadelphia have the best home record during the regular season (55-26), but the leaguewide winning percentage at home in 2025 (.543) was greater than any other season (excluding 2020) since 2010.
Of course, that might not mean a thing when it comes to October baseball. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds this year.
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