MLB Insider Predicts Kyle Schwarber to Land $30M AAV Contract amid Phillies Rumors

Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber is going to get "paid paid" this winter, in the words of ESPN's Jeff Passan.

"Teams will scoff because of the age, the strikeouts, the positional inflexibility," Passan posited. "But Schwarber's total package will ultimately push some of them off such concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants, he can get at least four years. The salary, at that term, should be at least $30 million a year."

In general, MLB teams have pulled back on their free-agent spending, and defensively limited power hitters have suffered more than perhaps any player archetype. Pete Alonso was a four-time All-Star and prodigious slugger heading into 2025, yet he had to settle for a two-year, $54 million deal from the New York Mets.

Next offseason will also unfold against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement. The threat of a possible work stoppage after the 2026 season could lead owners to be even more cautious.

To Passan's point, however, Schwarber is so good that none of that may matter.

The 32-year-old is leading the National League in home runs (49) with an MLB-best 119 RBI. He's slugging .573, and he ranks fourth in wOBA (.396) and sixth in wRC+ (154), per FanGraphs.

Schwarber has also been consistent at the plate across multiple seasons. The COVID-interrupted 2020 campaign is the only time since 2017 he has failed to post an OPS+ lower than 117.

Given his age, the three-time All-Star probably won't grant Philly any hometown discounts. His value is unlikely to be any higher than it will be this winter, and the the CBA battle provides an incentive to lock in the biggest contract possible.

That doesn't rule out a return to the Phillies, but ownership will have to add a big salary to what's already projected to be a top-seven payroll in 2026.