MLB Predictions for Stretch Run of 2025 Regular Season
With more than 2,100 of the 2,430 games of the 2025 Major League Baseball season played, we are on the verge of the metaphorical ninth inning of the campaign.
What should we expect down the stretch?
Most of the remaining drama is in the American League.
While the National League's postseason field and major awards appear to be pretty much decided, the AL East could be a three-team extravaganza decided in the final weekend of the regular season.
The same goes for the AL's No. 6 seed, given the way Seattle has been losing left and right for weeks. Both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards are still up for grabs, too.
But things could get spicy in the NL. San Francisco is still five games behind San Diego, but it has gained four games on the Padres just in the past five days.
There's also a gigantic Mets-Phillies four-game set coming up next week, which should help determine A) whether the NL East race gets interesting and B) whether the NL batting champion will have an average beginning with a two.
All that and more in our predictions for the remainder of September.
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AL Offensive Leaderboard Predictions
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AVG: Aaron Judge, NYY (.319)
H: Bo Bichette, TOR (209)
HR: Cal Raleigh, SEA (58)
OPS: Aaron Judge, NYY (1.111)
R: Aaron Judge, NYY (135)
RBI: Cal Raleigh, SEA (137)
SB: Chandler Simpson, TBR (49)
AL MVP: Aaron Judge, NYY
Before we dive into the Judge vs. Raleigh debate, let's touch on the other two categories here.
On the hits front, Bo Bichette led the American League in both 2021 and 2022, fell just 10 hits shy of doing so again in 2023 (despite missing 27 games) and is presently running away with another hits crown, 18 ahead of closest challenger Bobby Witt Jr., who led the majors with 211 hits last year.
Barring injury, Bichette is almost certainly going to reach 200 for the first time in his career. It's just a question of what the final margin/tally ends up being.
For stolen bases, José Caballero led the AL in this department last season and is currently the MLB leader with 42 swipes. However, he is neither running nor playing as often with the Yankees as he did in the first four months with the Rays.
Chandler Simpson, on the other hand, is playing and batting leadoff on a daily basis, has a permanent green light when he's on base and is just three stolen bases behind his former teammate. Pun intended, he's going to make a run at 50 steals.
As far as the big race is concerned, both Judge and Raleigh sputtered through a brutal August. The former entered the month batting .342 with a 1.160 OPS before posting marks of .241 and .923, respectively, while the latter also had an August OPS (.757) more than 200 points worse than what he entered the month with (.975).
Nevertheless, Judge is a sure thing to lead the league in both runs and OPS. No AL player is within 20 runs of him, nor is there a qualified AL hitter within 150 points of his OPS. The batting crown is still up for grabs, though. Jacob Wilson (.315), Bichette (.307) and Jeremy Peña (.306) are all reasonably within striking distance of Judge (.323).
Meanwhile, Raleigh has the home run crown just about locked up, eight clear of Judge there. RBI is a much tighter race, but he might only need to worry about staying ahead of teammate Eugenio Suárez—if his full-season RBI numbers even count, considering most of them came while in the NL.
Raleigh is at 109 with Suárez at 105. Riley Greene (103) and Junior Caminero (102) are the only others in triple digits.
We've waffled on the Judge/Raleigh for MVP debate for at least two months, but with Raleigh no longer quite on pace for 60 home runs (let alone 63) and the Mariners still in serious danger of missing the postseason, Judge feels like the pick right now.
NL Offensive Leaderboard Predictions
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AVG: Trea Turner, PHI (.299)
H: Trea Turner, PHI (202)
HR: Kyle Schwarber, PHI (58)
OPS: Shohei Ohtani, LAD (.995)
R: Shohei Ohtani, LAD (147)
RBI: Kyle Schwarber, PHI (144)
SB: Trea Turner, PHI (45)
AL MVP: Shohei Othani, LAD
As with Bo Bichette in the American League, Trea Turner is seeking both the first 200-hit campaign of his career and his third case of leading the league in hits.
The 200 portion of that could be a photo finish, presently on pace for 202, but the hits title is already all but in the bag, 18 ahead of Luis Arraez as his closest challenger.
The real question as it pertains to Turner is whether we're going to end up with a sub-.300 batting champ for the first time in MLB history.
When Carl Yastrzemski became the current record holder with a .301 mark in 1968, MLB lowered the mound in response to The Year of the Pitcher. But maybe one of Turner (.302), Sal Frelick (.298), Freddie Freeman (.297) or Will Smith (.296) will finish with a surge and avoid making sad history.
On the flip side of that coin, Shohei Ohtani might become the first player to score at least 150 runs in a single season since Jeff Bagwell got to 152 in 2000.
And if the Dodgers star goes just a bit higher for 153, he'd be the first to do that since Lou Gehrig scored 167 in 1936. However, with just three runs scored in his last eight games, he has fallen off that pace.
Ohtani also figures to finish as the NL's leader in OPS, presently 59 points ahead of Kyle Schwarber. However, with 12 home runs and 33 RBI in August alone, Schwarber has built up a somewhat comfortable lead in those categories, three ahead of Ohtani in the former and six clear of Pete Alonso in the latter.
He just might be able to overtake Ohtani for NL MVP. There's a big head-to-head showdown still to come, when the Phillies travel to Los Angeles two Mondays from now.
As far as the stolen bases go, there are five NL stars in the mix, each with at least 30. But while Oneil Cruz (36), Elly De La Cruz (32), Pete Crow-Armstrong (31) and Victor Scott II (31) each entered play on Thursday with just seven stolen base attempts in the second half of the season, Turner was sitting at 12-for-13 since the All-Star break, vaulting into a share of the league lead at 36. He should win that category, too.
AL Pitching Leaderboard Predictions
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Wins: Carlos Rodón, NYY (18)
ERA: Tarik Skubal, DET (2.10)
Strikeouts: Garrett Crochet, BOS (249)
Saves: Carlos Estévez, KCR (42)
Quality Starts: Bryan Woo, SEA (22)
WHIP: Tarik Skubal, DET (0.90)
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, DET
Let's begin this section with an unfortunate asterisk.
Nathan Eovaldi's season is over at 130.0 innings pitched, meaning he won't qualify for the ERA or WHIP leaderboards. But at 1.73 and 0.85, respectively, he posted the ninth-lowest ERA and seventh-lowest WHIP in a season of at least 130 IP by a starting pitcher, dating back to 1969. And when Clayton Kershaw put up similar numbers (1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) in 198.1 IP in 2014, he won NL MVP.
Just an elite run by Eovaldi that never got as much national attention as it deserved.
With that out of the way, buckle up for some nail-biting finishes in just about every category here.
With 36 saves to Andrés Muñoz's 32, Carlos Estévez might be the safest bet of the bunch. Then again, you never quite know with saves. Two years ago, Alexis Díaz was leading the majors with 32 by the end of July, and he managed just five the rest of the way.
Tarik Skubal has a decent lead in the ERA department at 2.18, but Hunter Brown (2.34) could catch him with a strong finish, or with one off-night by Skubal.
Both of those pitchers, Garrett Crochet and Framber Valdez all currently have 18 quality starts, but Bryan Woo remains the man to beat at 19, completing at least six innings in each of his first 25 starts of the year.
Wins is a less crowded field, but still a real toss-up between Carlos Rodón (15), Max Fried (15) and Crochet (14), with Joe Ryan (13) not dead yet.
Both strikeouts and Cy Young are a two-horse race, though, between Crochet and Skubal, and here's hoping they can get their rotations lined up in such a way that it's decided in a head-to-head showdown when Boston hosts Detroit in the final weekend of the regular season.
With Detroit currently using a six-man rotation, it's looking like Crochet will finish the season with one more start than Skubal, which should be the difference for total strikeouts.
Still got to like Skubal's chances of winning a second consecutive Cy Young, though, unless he ends up behind Crochet in all three Triple Crown categories.
NL Pitching Leaderboard Predictions
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Wins: Freddy Peralta, MIL (19)
ERA: Paul Skenes, PIT (2.12)
Strikeouts: Dylan Cease, SDP (225)
Saves: Robert Suarez, SDP (41)
Quality Starts: Logan Webb, SFG (22)
WHIP: Paul Skenes, PIT (0.96)
NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, PIT
As with Nathan Eovaldi in the AL, let's begin the NL section with an unfortunate asterisk on Zack Wheeler, who leads the NL in both WHIP (0.94) and K/9 (11.73) but is done for the year at 149.2 IP following surgery to remove a blood clot in his shoulder.
Before hitting the IL in mid-August, the Rangers star was the pitcher most likely to at least give Paul Skenes a run for his money for the Cy Young Award.
At this point, though, Skenes' trophy is all but assured—with Philadelphia's Cristopher Sánchez just about locked in as the first runner-up—even though it's still unclear whether Skenes will get to 10 wins or a winning record, sitting at 9-9.
Of course, there's only so much he can control on that front, and the fact that he's going to lead the league in ERA and might lead the league in both WHIP and total strikeouts is way more noteworthy than his wins and losses.
Shoutout to the Padres for having quite the challenger to Skenes in both of those departments, though.
Dylan Cease hasn't had a banner season as far as ERA goes, but he is striking out better than 30 percent of batters faced, on track for a fifth consecutive year with at least 214 whiffs.
It should boil down to Cease (190), Skenes (187) and Logan Webb (194) for first place there, with Webb the best candidate to lead the NL in quality starts for what would be the second time in three years. He's at 19 right now and got to 24 in 2023.
Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta is slightly ahead of Skenes in WHIP, allowing just 30 hits across his last 10 starts. With two of his five remaining starts projected to come against the Rockies and White Sox, maybe he finishes that fight and edges out Skenes.
Elsewhere, Freddy Peralta already has three more wins than his closest challenger, his quest for 20 being far more interesting than the (lack of) chase for the lead.
It's a similar story in saves, where Robert Suarez (35) is five ahead of Trevor Megill and nine ahead of his nearest healthy competition (Emilio Pagán). The only question there is whether he'll be able to overtake Carlos Estévez for the MLB lead in saves before inevitably exercising his opt-out clause and becoming a free agent.
AL Standings Predictions
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AL East
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays (WC)
- Boston Red Sox (WC)
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
- Cleveland Guardians
- Minnesota Twins
- Chicago White Sox
AL West
- Houston Astros
- Seattle Mariners (WC)
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Angels
- Athletics
For the most part, this is a carbon copy of the current AL standings.
Both Tampa Bay and Texas are closing in on a Mariners team that has lost 14 of its last 20 games. However, remaining schedule strength should help the M's keep those teams at bay.
Among AL teams, Texas has the hardest remaining schedule, Tampa Bay has the second-most difficult and Seattle has the easiest.
The one significant deviation from current standings with this projection is the Yankees finishing ahead of the Blue Jays to win the AL East, with those two about to square off in New York this weekend.
If the Yankees can take at least two of those three games, there's a good chance they'll track down Toronto during the final two weeks of the regular season, when New York wraps things up with the Twins, White Sox and seven games against the Orioles.
Notably, Seattle has a similar opportunity to close a four-game gap in the AL West, playing three games at Houston later this month. As mentioned, though, the Mariners have been floundering for the past three weeks, turning what was an "anyone's guess" situation for division champ into one where it sure looks like the Astros' to lose.
NL Standings Predictions
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NL East
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets (WC)
- Atlanta Braves
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
NL Central
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago Cubs (WC)
- Cincinnati Reds
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres (WC)
- San Francisco Giants
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies
This projection is even less bold than the American League, the only switch of the bunch here being Atlanta sliding ahead of Miami for a meaningless third-place finish in the NL East.
What do you expect, though, when almost all of the races feel like they're over?
Milwaukee is up six games on Chicago while Philadelphia holds a 5.5-game lead over New York. Unless the Mets sweep that four-game set in Philadelphia that begins on Monday, it's hard to imagine either of those division crowns flipping.
And although San Francisco, Cincinnati, Arizona and St. Louis are each at least as close to New York for the final wild-card spot as New York is to Philadelphia in the NL East, none of the four is closer than four games. As of Thursday morning, the Giants were +1000, the Reds +1300, the Diamondbacks +2500 and the Cardinals +3000 to make the postseason, per DraftKings.
The only somewhat interesting race is in the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5-game lead over the Padres. But with San Diego having lost eight of its last 10, including getting swept at home by Baltimore, does anyone really see that changing?
Whether Philadelphia or Los Angeles gets the No. 2 seed and whether San Diego or New York ends up with the No. 5 seed might be the full extent of NL standings drama the rest of the way.
Playoff Bracket Predictions
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Playoff Bracket
AL Wild Card Matchup A: (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card Matchup B: (4) Toronto Blue Jays vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
First-Round Byes: (1) Detroit Tigers, (2) New York Yankees
This is year No. 4 of the 12-team postseason format, and through the first three years there has only been one instance of a wild-card series between division rivals, when the Phillies made quick work of the Marlins in 2023.
The stage appears to be set for a double-dip of AL rivalries this year, though. The Yankees and Red Sox are comfortably ahead of Seattle at this point, making it very likely the 4/5 matchup will be an AL East battle. And even if the Mariners squander the No. 6 seed, the team most likely to take it from them is the Rangers.
It would be a fun start to an AL half of the bracket in which no one feels like a top candidate to reach the World Series.
NL Wild Card Matchup A: (3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (6) New York Mets
NL Wild Card Matchup B: (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) San Diego Padres
First-Round Byes: (1) Milwaukee Brewers, (2) Philadelphia Phillies
Factoring in their massive impending luxury-tax payments, the Dodgers and Mets are going to wind up spending just a shade under $1 billion on this season.
As such, it's almost comical that while the low-budget Brewers continue to run away with home-field advantage, those two teams could end up in a "one and only one will survive the Wild Card Round" situation.
As mentioned, though, the races for the No. 2 and No. 5 seeds in the National League remain very much up in the air, with huge head-to-head showdowns yet to come, no less. Philadelphia plays at Los Angeles Sept. 15-17, while San Diego plays at New York Sept. 16-18. Pending those outcomes, that 3/6 matchup could be just about any combination of those four teams.
With all due respect to whoever gets that No. 5 seed, though, please, Chicago, win two games at Wrigley Field and give us a Cubs-Brewers NLDS, because those games were electric all season long.
