MLB's Chaos Meter For Teams Capable of Blowing Up the Playoff Picture and Postseason
There is only so much time left in the 2025 MLB season, but don't be fooled. Even this late in the schedule, chaos still lurks around every corner.
So, what the heck? Let's talk about eight teams that are especially likely to unleash it.
What bonds these teams together is that they are perfectly situated to swing the playoff race in some way or another. Six have a golden chance to either play spoiler or mount a comeback in the standings. The other two, meanwhile, are in danger of total collapse.
In an attempt to quantify just how much havoc each team could wreak, we've busted out the Chaos Meter. Its three settings are low, medium and high, in relation to how probable it is that they actually will cause chaos.
Let's get things rolling with the potential spoilers.
Note: Playoff odds and remaining strength of schedule are according to FanGraphs.
Athletics
1 of 8
Record: 56-70
Playoff Odds: 0.0 percent
Remaining SoS: .500
Cause for Chaos: Play Spoiler
Let's just say that no team should want to be on the business end of the A's bats right now.
Their offense has had a dangerous look to it all season, and even more so in the wake of the All-Star break. The Athletics co-lead the league with 44 home runs, while their 122 wRC+ ranks third behind the AL-leading Toronto Blue Jays and NL-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
It has mostly been "The Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers Variety Show and Power Hour." They have a combined 234 wRC+ and 20 home runs in the second half, the latter of which puts them just one shy of two whole teams—shame on you, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals.
Not to be overlooked, though, is how the A's have also come around on the mound. They have a 3.58 ERA in the second half, down from 5.22 in the first. Rookie righty Jacob Lopez has been a revelation with a 1.55 ERA in five starts.
Chaos Meter: Low
The A's have benefited from all this to the tune of a 15-13 record since the break. And while their schedule only gives them so many more chances to slay dragons, the six games they have left with the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners may well decide the AL West race.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 8
Record: 60-65
Playoff Odds: 1.2 percent
Remaining SoS: .519
Cause for Chaos: Play Spoiler
Not all is well in the desert. It has been a tremendously disappointing season for the 2023 National League champs just in general, and reporting from Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has revealed some internal frustration with Ketel Marte.
And yet, the Snakes have won nine out of their last 15 games.
As with the A's, this is largely a case of a dangerous-looking offense finally waking up. The D-backs are third in the majors for runs in the month of August, and Marte is just one of their hot bats. Corbin Carroll has gone deep five times and Geraldo Perdomo is batting .351.
Pitching remains Arizona's primary weakness, but Zac Gallen has finally entered salary drive mode just in time to make life difficult for everyone else. He's been solid in three starts this month, posting a 3.18 ERA over 17 innings.
Chaos Meter: Medium
Only two teams have more difficult remaining schedules than Arizona, and weighing especially heavy on that front are six remaining games against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are leading the season series 4-3, but have only outscored the D-backs by four runs.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 8
Record: 57-67
Playoff Odds: 0.0 percent
Remaining SoS: .520
Cause for Chaos: Play Spoiler
Yes, the Orioles have been out of the playoff race for a long while at this point. Simultaneously, though, they have also been playing good baseball for about as long.
They are 41-33 since the second game of a double-header at Fenway Park back on May 24, and even their massive trade deadline sell-off doesn't seem to have sucked all the life out of them.
They just took two of three from a Mariners club that rolled into Baltimore on a seven-game win streak, and promptly followed up by throwing a near-perfect game against the Astros to begin yet another series win. That was part of an unexpectedly strong run for Baltimore's starters, who have a 2.68 ERA in August.
And now, here comes Samuel Basallo. After posting a .966 OPS and 23 home runs at Triple-A, he's coming up to provide some much-needed punch in an offense that has fallen on hard times for much of 2025.
Chaos Meter: High
The Orioles have the most difficult remaining schedule of any team in the American League, with the 13 games they have left against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees representing a major chance to impact the AL East and wild-card races. As they also have six left against San Diego and Los Angeles, the NL West could also feel their influence in the end.
Cleveland Guardians
4 of 8
Record: 63-60
Playoff Odds: 17.8 percent
Remaining SoS: .502
Cause for Chaos: Play Spoiler *or* Stage a Comeback
The Guardians haven't had much of a footprint in the AL playoff race throughout 2025, and it was only a couple weeks ago they were staring into the abyss at the trade deadline.
Well, despite some recent sputtering, go figure the Guardians have won 11 out of their last 17 games.
Though he wasn't exactly quiet in the first half of the year, José Ramírez is suddenly doing that thing where nobody can get him out. He has a .940 OPS in the second half so far, with barely more strikeouts (eight) than he does home runs (seven).
Further, rumors of their bullpen's demise after Emmanuel Clase was placed on leave were greatly exaggerated. Cleveland's pen has a 2.81 ERA without him, with Cade Smith locking things down by allowing just one earned run in 9.1 innings.
Chaos Meter: High
The Guardians are only 3.5 games out in the race for the AL's third wild-card spot, so the playoffs haven't kissed them goodbye just yet. And even if they can't get in, remaining series against Seattle and Boston and two against the Detroit Tigers could throw the seeding for the AL playoff field into disarray.
Kansas City Royals
5 of 8
Record: 63-61
Playoff Odds: 8.7 percent
Remaining SoS: .497
Cause for Chaos: Stage a Comeback
Remember when the Royals were supposed to sell at the deadline, only to pull a fast one on everybody by extending Seth Lugo and otherwise chose to add?
It was a bold strategy, but it hardly looks like a misfire. They have been steadily creeping up the standings over the past month, winning 16 out of their last 25 games to shave their wild-card deficit down to 4.0 games.
The offense has been making up for lost time with an output of 5.4 runs per game in this span. Salvador Perez has clubbed eight homers, while Vinnie Pasquantino has been absolutely on one with seven homers an 24 runs driven in.
As Kansas City's pitching otherwise continues to get the job done for the most part, all that's really needed is for Bobby Witt Jr. to go on a proper heater. He's overdue in this respect, and has recently been showing signs with a .917 OPS in August.
Chaos Meter: Medium
The Royals indeed have some ground to make up, but their generally soft landing looks that much softer if you count the Tigers as a beatable opponent. And they have been in losing 19 out of their last 33 games, so the Royals' six remaining games against them are a chance to do some damage.
Cincinnati Reds
6 of 8
Record: 65-60
Playoff Odds: 13.5 percent
Remaining SoS: .514
Cause for Chaos: Stage a Comeback
The Reds have been closely tethered to .500 all season, never going more than four games below or six games above. And looking ahead, that's a difficult remaining schedule.
Two things, though: The Reds are better than their record indicates, and they're typically not intimidated by games against tough customers.
At plus-49, they have a better run differential than a handful of contenders around MLB, including San Diego, Houston and Seattle. And after salvaging a win against the previously unbeatable Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, they're now 29-29 against teams with winning records.
What could get the Reds through their difficult landing is their starting rotation. It easily leads the majors in fWAR since the break, and that is even though staff ace Hunter Greene only just came off the injured list.
Chaos Meter: Medium
As they stand to take the third wild-card spot from the spare-no-expense Mets, the Reds actually pulling it off would be a proper "David defeats Goliath" story. As for whether they can do it, the question is if they can become road warriors in time. Of their last 36 games, 21 are away from Great American Ball Park.
New York Mets
7 of 8
Record: 66-58
Playoff Odds: 84.1 percent
Remaining SoS: .499
Cause for Chaos: Suffer a Collapse
Though the Mets are still hanging in there ahead of the Reds in the NL wild-card race, everyone knows the broad strokes of their story by now.
On June 12, they had the best record in the league at 45-24. But since then, only two clubs have accumulated more losses.
One bit of good news is that the Mets' offense has finally started to perk up in August, already producing 24 home runs after hitting 26 in all of July. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are over the 1.000 OPS threshold, and Juan Soto isn't far behind at .957.
Rather than digging itself out of a hole, however, the pitching is delving deeper with a 5.40 ERA in August. The Mets can hope for more of what Nolan McLean gave them in his debut, but he's already past his career high for innings pitched.
Chaos Meter: Medium
Given how far they have already fallen, it feels like a bit of mercy that the Mets still have such solid odds to make the playoffs. But with seven games still left to go against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies, there's at least one opponent on their horizon who could push those odds closer to zero.
New York Yankees
8 of 8
Record: 67-57
Playoff Odds: 91.2 percent
Remaining SoS: .482
Cause for Chaos: Suffer a Collapse
There's at least one reason for Yankees fans to adopt a "Fear not" attitude for the rest of the season, and it's this: Nobody in MLB has an easier remaining schedule.
Like the Mets, though, this is a team that has been spiraling since June 12. The Yankees had the second-best record in the American League on that date, and they have since lost 32 of their last 57 games.
Pitching has been a particular sore spot, and specifically since the All-Star break. It has been a total breakdown, with the starters posting a 4.87 ERA and the relievers doing only a touch better with a 4.71 ERA.
It's times like these that the Yankees need Aaron Judge to be an unstoppable force, but he just hasn't been that since coming off the injured list on August 5. In 10 games, he's batting .229 with two home runs.
Chaos Meter: Low
The Yankees have already begun to turn things around with back-to-back series victories, and still to come are 10 games against the lowly Chicago White Sox and Washington Nationals. But they must beware the seven they have left against the Boston Red Sox, who have beaten them five times in six tries already.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
