Updated Post-Trade Deadline 2025 MLB Playoff Predictions
Now that the dust has settled on what was a breakneck pace of wheeling and dealing ahead of MLB's 2025 trade deadline, what is the playoff picture looking like in the aftermath of all those swaps?
Did the Blue Jays do enough to hold off the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East?
Is the AL West destined to match the exciting race from two years ago?
Any separation in the heated two-horse races in the NL East and NL Central?
And could the aggressive Padres overtake the unusually inactive Dodgers?
We'll go division by division with our updated predictions of who will make the postseason, culminating in a rapid-fire prediction of how things would play out if we're right with all this seeding prognosticating.
All stats and records are current through the start of play on Saturday, August 2.
American League East
1 of 7
Toronto Blue Jays: 64-47
Deadline Synopsis: Took a chance on Shane Bieber. The Jays also added Seranthony Domínguez to the bullpen and probably could/should have done a bit more on that front, but the big add was Bieber. He hasn't pitched in the bigs yet this season, but we know what he used to be capable of. Also, getting traded at the deadline before playing a game didn't do much of anything to keep Tommy Edman from impacting a World Series run last year. Maybe Bieber makes a similar splash in a veteran-laden rotation.
New York Yankees: 60-50 (3.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Beefed up. They didn't do anything about their rotation shortcomings, so fingers crossed on Luis Gil returning soon and at a high level. However, the Yankees did address third base with the addition of Ryan McMahon. And though their collective debut on Friday was disastrous, they really bolstered the bullpen in Camilo Doval, David Bednar and Jake Bird—all of whom are under team control through at least next season, preemptively addressing the possible departures of Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.
Boston Red Sox: 60-51 (4.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Underwhelming. For all the talk of Dylan Cease, Mitch Keller, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Joe Ryan and the potential for a Duran-Duran swap, the Red Sox sure ended up doing a whole lot of nothing. Acquiring Dustin May from the Dodgers was certainly a surprising development right before the deadline, but why they wanted another oft-injured, underwhelming Dodgers pitcher when they already have Walker Buehler is a mystery. Aside from that, all they did was add LHP Steven Matz as a potential swingman.
Tampa Bay Rays: 54-57 (10.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Little of this; little of that. The Rays were certainly busy, bringing in one catcher (Nick Fortes) to replace another (Danny Janson), shipping Zack Littell to Cincinnati in the lone three-team trade of the deadline and scooping up both Adrian Houser and Griffin Jax in the 11th hour. Are they any better equipped to make up what is suddenly a four-game and several-team deficit in the wild card race? Probably not. And having three players (Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson) all get injured on deadline day wasn't great.
Baltimore Orioles: 50-60 (13.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Adios, rentals. As had been expected for about two months, the O's jettisoned just about everything aboard their sinking ship that wasn't nailed down. It was a little surprising they couldn't find anyone to take Tomoyuki Sugano off their hands, but Charlie Morton, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Ramón Urías, Andrew Kittredge, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez all suddenly have postseason aspirations again.
Projected Division Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Wild Card Teams: New York Yankees
American League Central
2 of 7
Detroit Tigers: 64-47
Deadline Synopsis: Ehhh.... Don't get me wrong, the Tigers were busy. They added Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack to their rotation, as well as Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Randy Dobnak and Paul Sewald to their bullpen. But if you weren't already sold on the Tigers as a serious World Series contender before the deadline, those moves almost certainly didn't do anything to help you buy in. Just felt like a lot of "moves for the sake of making moves" for a team with a big cushion that is waiting on a lot of injured pitchers to get healthy.
Cleveland Guardians: 55-54 (8.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Quietly noisy. There was an awful lot of Guardians chatter, mostly surrounding Steven Kwan as a top trade candidate. The All-Star left fielder ended up not going anywhere, though, the lone trades Cleveland made involving injured pitchers Shane Bieber and Paul Sewald. They're only 3.0 games back in the wild card picture, but they added nothing and also lost Emmanuel Clase through at least the end of August. They're most likely toast.
Kansas City Royals: 55-55 (8.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: The surprise buyers. After all the Seth Lugo trade speculation turned instead into a multi-year extension for the ace of the staff, the Royals pivoted into a bit of an under-the-radar buyer. Freddy Fermin went to San Diego for a pair of potential starters in Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. They also got Bailey Falter to pitch, as well as Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski to spruce up what has been a horrific outfield. Not a bad little deadline for a team that definitely isn't dead yet.
Minnesota Twins: 51-58 (12.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Oh my God we're having a fire...sale. It escalated quickly. Trading away Chris Paddack was whatever. Dealing Jhoan Durán for a pair of top 100 prospects was unexpected, but a decent haul. But when the Carlos Correa chatter actually turned into a trade back to Houston, all hell broke loose as the Twins burned it all down. They still have Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Bailey Ober, as well as Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. But holy roster turnover, Batman.
Chicago White Sox: 41-69 (22.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Clear-cut seller that forgot to sell. The White Sox did flip Adrian Houser for Curtis Mead. That's not nothing. But not trading any of Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi or Aaron Civale away was weird. TBH, kind of feels like they're just keeping a few big salaries around to keep the MLBPA off their back about not spending while they continue to slog through a rebuild with no end in sight.
Projected Division Winner: Detroit Tigers
Projected Wild Card Teams: N/A
American League West
3 of 7
Houston Astros: 62-48
Deadline Synopsis: Very loud...maybe productive? The Carlos Correa reunion was the ultimate stunner of the deadline, but does it actually help the Astros? Any warm body is good for this injury-ravaged club, but he has been having a replacement-level season and is jumping into a new position. Between him, Jesús Sánchez and Ramón Urías, the latter might actually be the most productive player they added, which isn't promising. They need pitchers getting healthy pronto if they're going to maintain this division lead.
Seattle Mariners: 59-52 (3.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Maybe the biggest winner of the deadline. Seattle needed bats at the corner infield spots, and the Diamondbacks had two to offer. Bringing in Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor instantly elevated Seattle to the trendy pick to win the American League. And don't sleep on the addition of LHP Caleb Ferguson, who has logged 5.2 hitless innings of work in his postseason career. Should be a key middle reliever as the M's chase their first division title since 2001.
Texas Rangers: 57-54 (5.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Better late than never. By the time the Rangers made their first trade of deadline week, every other franchise had made at least one. Their first one (Codi Heuer to Detroit for cash considerations) wasn't exactly big news, either. But in the final 90 minutes or so, they scooped up Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton for the bullpen while adding Merrill Kelly to a rotation already anchored by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. The decision to not address the lack of a closer immediately bit Texas in the butt on Friday night. But if that trio of starters stays healthy, Godspeed to teams facing this rotation in October.
Los Angeles Angels: 53-57 (9.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Rock, meet hard place. After nine consecutive losing seasons and a franchise record 99 losses last season, the Angels aren't exactly eager to resume playing meaningless September baseball, half-heartedly buying at what was four games back rather than selling off Tyler Anderson and Kenley Jansen. They added Andrew Chafin, Luis Garcia and Oswald Peraza in a couple of moves that no one realistically expects to amount to much.
Athletics: 49-63 (14.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Short term pain for long term gain. Giving up Mason Miller with 4.5 years remaining could not have been an easy decision for the Athletics, but ignoring an offer of No. 3 overall prospect Leo De Vries and three other pitching prospects was even tougher. While Miller and JP Sears are off to San Diego for the foreseeable future, the A's took what felt like a big step forward in year No. 4 of this rebuild.
Projected Division Winner: Seattle Mariners
Projected Wild Card Teams: Houston Astros and Texas Rangers
National League East
4 of 7
Philadelphia Phillies: 62-47
Deadline Synopsis: A Twin killing. The Phillies only made two moves, both with the Minnesota Twins, turning four prospects into Jhoan Durán and Harrison Bader. While the Padres went buck wild to get Mason Miller, the Phillies managed to keep all three of their top prospects while acquiring what ought to be their closer through 2027. Adding a righty-hitting outfielder, too, checked both of the boxes on their deadline to-do list.
New York Mets: 62-48 (0.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Who needs a farm system anyway? The Mets sent a combined five prospects to the Orioles for Cedric Mullins and Gregory Soto, three to the Cardinals for Ryan Helsley and three to the Giants for Tyler Rogers. They didn't part with anything close to a top 100 prospect for that quarter of two-month rentals, though, and the bullpen improved from a gigantic question mark to a position of strength. We'll see whether the Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde version of Mullins shows up for them in center field, though.
Miami Marlins: 53-55 (8.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Strangely but admirably inactive. The Marlins were seven games back in the wild card race and can't realistically be expecting to close that gap, but they had an almost nonexistent deadline, save for shipping Jesús Sánchez to Houston for Ryan Gusto and a pair of low-level prospects. Rest assured, though, the Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera trade chatter will fire right back up along with the offseason hot stove.
Atlanta Braves: 46-63 (16.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Unwilling to accept defeat. Maybe the offers for Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias weren't enough to pique their interest. Perhaps Alex Anthopoulos just decided not to answer those calls. Either way, the Braves entered deadline day 14 games back for a wild card spot and basically just sat on their hands. No one was expecting a multi-year fire sale or anything drastic, but declining to move Ozuna and Iglesias for what would have been lottery ticket prospects and around $10M in salary relief was strange.
Washington Nationals: 44-65 (18.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: An un-Gore-y bloodletting. For Alex Call, a bunch of two-month rentals and a wise decision to not trade MacKenzie Gore, the Washington Nationals added 10 prospects, six of whom are now top 30 in their farm, per MLB.com's pipeline. This club's five-year plan remains clear as mud, but save for not being able to move Josh Bell for some reason, they had a productive deadline.
Projected Division Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Wild Card Teams: New York Mets
National League Central
5 of 7
Milwaukee Brewers: 65-44
Deadline Synopsis: Let's just say they didn't swing any "2008 CC Sabathia" types of deals. Scooping up Danny Jansen almost a week ahead of the deadline was a respectable move. Trading Nestor Cortes for Brandon Lockridge while also trading for the injured Shelby Miller and the out-for-the-year Jordan Montgomery was exceptionally puzzling. Can't say we were expecting a whole lot from the small-market Brewers, but more aggressiveness from a franchise seeking its first World Series title would have been swell.
Chicago Cubs: 64-45 (1.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Missed the goal. There were 115 days between Justin Steele's last start of the season and the trade deadline, which means we spent a solid 16 weeks talking on a near-daily basis about how the Cubs need to add at least one quality starting pitcher in order to really cement themselves as a top World Series threat. And they acquired...Michael Soroka? They also got Willi Castro, Taylor Rogers and Andrew Kittredge, but it sure is looking like their only choice is going to be slugging their way through October.
Cincinnati Reds: 58-53 (8.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Did a little buying, but probably not enough. It was kind of hilarious that light-hitting, elite-gloved Ke'Bryan Hayes both homered and committed an error in his Reds debut, but the expectation is that adding Hayes and Miguel Andujar was nowhere near enough to address the lack of reliable offensive weapons on this roster. The Zack Littell rental is intriguing, though taking the guy who was already "leading" the majors in home runs allowed and making GABP his new home park could be disastrous.
St. Louis Cardinals: 55-56 (11.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Threw in the towel as best they could. Moving Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado and/or Willson Contreras would have been beneficial in the name of getting younger, shedding salary and building for the future. But with none of them nor Miles Mikolas willing to waive their no-trade clauses, the Cardinals had to settle for dumping Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde as rentals. Always a shame to see a .500 team give up, but this was always the approach the Cards were likely to take.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 47-63 (18.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Botched fire sale. We expected Pittsburgh to be busy, but moving Bailey Falter instead of Mitch Keller? Ke'Bryan Hayes instead of Isiah Kiner-Falefa? Not moving Dennis Santana when the relief market was scorching hot? Hanging onto impending free agents Tommy Pham and Andrew Heaney for no apparent reason? And choosing to take less than they could have gotten for David Bednar? For as many times as they've been deadline sellers over the years, you'd like to think the Pirates would be a little better at it.
Projected Division Winner: Chicago Cubs
Projected Wild Card Teams: Milwaukee Brewers
National League West
6 of 7
Los Angeles Dodgers: 64-46
Deadline Synopsis: Banking on an uptick in health. The Dodgers didn't do much, merely adding Alex Call for some outfield depth and Brock Stewart to the middle-relief mix, while also shipping Dustin May to Boston. But Blake Snell made his return to the mound on Saturday, which may well be the best deadline upgrade of them all if "Second Half Snell" does his thing again. Max Muncy also figures to return this week. Probably several more pitchers before the end of the month, too. So while it was a quiet deadline for the Dodgers, we get it.
San Diego Padres: 61-49 (3.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: An AJ Preller specialty. With 12 hours remaining until the deadline, the Padres were one of four teams that had yet to make a single trade. And then they went nuts, unloading all sorts of quality prospects for Mason Miller, shipping two big-league starters to Kansas City for Freddy Fermin and bringing in all of Ryan O'Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Will Wagner and Nestor Cortes ahead of the buzzer. All without giving up Dylan Cease, too. Giddy up.
San Francisco Giants: 55-55 (9.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Six weeks removed from going all-in and trading for Rafael Devers, the sub-.500 Giants half-heartedly called it quits on 2025, trading away Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval. The first two made sense as rentals, but Doval had two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and they dumped him for a quartet of underwhelming prospects. Worse yet, they didn't trade away Justin Verlander, who's now going to become the 10th member of the 3,500-strikeout club in some otherwise wholly meaningless game against Pittsburgh or Washington.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 51-59 (13.0 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Admirably flipped rentals for prospects. Yes, the haul for Eugenio Suárez was a bit underwhelming. But for him, Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks added what are now the Nos. 6, 7, 10, 14, 15, 20, 23 and 25 ranked prospects in their pipeline, per MLB.com. They also somehow conned the Brewers into taking Jordan Montgomery and didn't part with Zac Gallen, who is a no-brainer to receive (and possibly even accept) a qualifying offer this winter.
Colorado Rockies: 29-80 (34.5 GB)
Deadline Synopsis: Quietly did OK. In the Ryan McMahon trade, the Rockies saved themselves around $36M and added what is now a top-five prospect in their farm system (Griffin Herring). They almost certainly could have gotten more than just Roc Riggio and Ben Shields for Jake Bird and his three remaining years of arbitration eligibility, but at least the Rockies actually dealt their top trade chips for a change. Progress is progress.
Projected Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Wild Card Teams: San Diego Padres
Projecting the Postseason
7 of 7
Wild Card Round
AL No. 3 Seattle Mariners over AL No. 6 Texas Rangers
AL No. 4 Houston Astros over AL No. 5 New York Yankees
NL No. 6 Milwaukee Brewers over NL No. 3 Chicago Cubs
NL No. 4 San Diego Padres over NL No. 5 New York Mets
Division Round
AL No. 4 Houston Astros over AL No. 1 Detroit Tigers
AL No. 3 Seattle Mariners over AL No. 2 Toronto Blue Jays
NL No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over NL No. 4 San Diego Padres
NL No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies over NL No. 6 Milwaukee Brewers
League Championship Series
ALCS: No. 3 Seattle Mariners over No. 4 Houston Astros
NLCS: No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers over No. 2 Philadelphia Phillies
World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Seattle Mariners
The American League remains absurdly wide open, to the point where if they announced tomorrow that it's now a 14-team field with the Boston Red Sox sneaking is as the No. 7 seed, it'd be easy to talk ourselves into them getting back to the World Series.
It's going to come down to whoever's hottest heading into October, and if the friendly competition between Eugenio Suárez and Cal Raleigh for the MLB lead in RBI propels them to winning the AL West, they're probably going to be the hottest team.
As was the case before the season, though, it still feels quite likely that the NLCS champ will win the World Series, and that the NLCS champ will be the Dodgers. Their deadline activity paled in comparison to the key moves they made last summer, but the reigning champions remain the team to beat.
By no means, however, is Los Angeles currently looking like the heavy favorite we expected five months ago. In fact, the only team in the projected NL field that they have a winning record against is the Padres, and they lost all six games against the Brewers. But if they get/stay reasonably healthy the rest of the way, they'll be tough to knock out.
