Ranking NFL QBs Most Likely to Lose Their Starting Job During 2025 Season

With training camp underway, preparations for the 2025 NFL season are now in full swing. One of the more intriguing aspects of these offseason practice sessions are positional battles, especially those with a starting quarterback job on the line.

While Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and the rest of league's elite signal-callers are firmly entrenched and won't face any serious competition during camp, there are a slew of lower-tier passers fighting for the handful of QB1 spots that remain up for grabs.

Whether a franchise took a swing on a rookie prospect or utilized free agency to onboard a veteran, these less-heralded passers will spend the preseason working to impress their coaching staff and trying to earn the right to play.

Exiting training camp with a starting role undoubtedly provides a boost to a quarterback's job security, but the losers of these competitions aren't out of the running to see meaningful time later in the year.

Injuries are the most common manner in which backups end up under center, although quarterbacks are regularly benched for underperformance too.

That won't change in 2025. There should be ample opportunity for backups to emerge as starters as the campaign wears on, especially if teams get off to poor starts or become desperate to jump-start flailing offenses.

With that in mind, here's a ranked look—based on the starter's history of production, projections for the upcoming season, strength of schedule, coaching staff, quality of the backups and other unique factors—at five quarterbacks who are most likely to lose their job in 2025.

5. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

The Seattle Seahawks have had a confusing offseason, one that has seen them move on from some of their most proven and consistent veterans while onboarding pricy replacements with spottier track records.

One of the more questionable moves was to deal Geno Smith—who landed with the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round pick in March—and sign Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million contract a few days later.

While Darnold had a relatively strong season with the Minnesota Vikings, the decision could come back to haunt the Seahawks. Prior to his breakout campaign in the Twin Cities, the 28-year-old had spent time with three different clubs over the first six years of his career and failed to distinguish himself with any.

Even in 2024, when Darnold led Minnesota to a 14-3 record and postseason berth while putting up 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns with a 66.2 percent completion rate, things still ended poorly.

The Vikings missed out on an NFC North title and first-round bye by losing to the rival Detroit Lions in the finale—a game Darnold completed just 18-of-41 throws for 166 yards in—and then continued to struggle in a blowout Wild Card Round defeat to the Los Angeles Rams, another contest the 2018 No. 3 pick disappeared in.

It's worth noting Minnesota boasted a far more talented offensive line than the one Seattle is set to field for 2025. Darnold also had some of the league's best pass-catchers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to lean on.

Factor in the coaching switch from Kevin O’Connell—a renowned quarterbacks whisperer—to Mike Macdonald, a defensive-oriented head coach, and there's a real chance Darnold returns to being a subpar starter in 2025.

If that’s the case, it wouldn't be a shock to see third-round rookie Jalen Milroe get some run in the latter portion of the campaign as the team evaluates its future.

4. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

The New Orleans Saints are setting themselves up to thrust Tyler Shough directly into the fire to start the 2025 NFL season.

The second-round pick was initially projected to spend at least a season backing up Derek Carr in the Big Easy, but the veteran's unexpected retirement announcement has left the rookie as the Saints' best hope for a successful campaign.

Although new head coach Kellen Moore hasn't committed to Carr's replacement, Shough has emerged as the odds-on favorite to win the starting job, edging out both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener.

While Moore has been allocating first-team snaps to all three contenders and none has separated from the pack at this early juncture, all signs point to Shough getting first crack at becoming Carr's successor.

That tenure may not last long if Shough shows he isn't ready for meaningful action, though.

New Orleans has some tough matchups to open the 2025 campaign, including meetings with the Arizona Cardinals—who spent the offseason making massive upgrades to their defense—and an always-dangerous San Francisco 49ers squad led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Nick Bosa.

While Shough is clearly the best of the Saints' crop of quarterbacks and should get plenty of leeway due to his upside alone, Moore might need to pull him to protect his confidence if he's being pummeled behind a suspect offensive line.

With both Rattler and Haener pushing for playing time, New Orleans could end up deploying all three quarterbacks at various times this season—one that is sure to be trying for the organization.

3. Russell Wilson, New York Giants

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

The New York Giants are desperate to bounce back after one of the worst seasons in franchise history. This desperation led to them inking Russell Wilson to fill the void under center but could also lead to the veteran being discarded at the drop of a hat.

Although fan-favorite Tommy DeVito is still on the roster and Jameis Winston in place as a veteran insurance option, first-round rookie Jaxson Dart is the clear future of this franchise and it won’t be long before fans are clamoring to see more of him.

Wilson can't afford a slow start due to Dart's presence. He'll also have to shake the stink of last season—one that ended with him losing each of his last five starts including a blowout defeat in the Wild Card Round—and get back to playing the type of high-level football he displayed regularly during his decade-long tenure with the Seahawks.

While Wilson did make the Pro Bowl last season, the honor rang hollow and was more of a testament to the lack of available QBs for the all-star game.

During his lone campaign with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 36-year-old didn't get on the field until Week 7 due to an injury and finished with a middling stat line (63.7 percent completion rate, 2,482 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns) that has tempered expectations for his impending debut in the Big Apple.

Dart's rapid development could see him emerge as the starter fairly quickly. According to Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post, the Ole Miss product just had his best day of training camp and dazzled onlookers. After that sizzling practice session, the young quarterback said "the game's starting to slow down" for him, a concerning development for Wilson.

If the No. 25 overall pick continues to impress throughout the preseason, it's likely Wilson will only be keeping his job for a couple months at best. Barring a red-hot start for the Giants under the veteran quarterback, this should be Dart's team by the midpoint of the campaign.

2. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Joe Flacco, left, and Kenny Pickett

Within the span of a few short months, the Cleveland Browns went from not having a healthy quarterback on the roster to, arguably, too much depth at the position.

After trading for Kenny Pickett, signing Joe Flacco and drafting both Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, the Browns have their work cut out trying to allocate meaningful training camp reps to each of their signal-callers.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski’s job did get a bit easier over the weekend, though, when Pickett went down with a hamstring injury that will sideline him for a stretch.

While Cleveland isn't planning to add another QB to the roster during Pickett's absence (which Stefanski expects to be brief), the injury should make it a touch easier for Flacco to officially become the team's Week 1 starter.

The 40-year-old had been splitting first-team reps with Pickett during the opening week of camp and should now get the lion's share of his competitor's snaps.

Despite Flacco's extensive experience and impressive resume, he isn't the long-term answer in Cleveland. After saving the Browns' season two years ago—going 4-1 across five regular-season starts to help the team claim a playoff berth—he signed with the Indianapolis Colts and looked every bit the aging veteran on his way out.

Flacco started six games for Indy in 2024, going just 2-4 with a middling stat line of 1,761 passing yards and 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions.

While Flacco may be a sensible choice going into the new season as a steady hand who can still manage a game, the Browns should not pass up the opportunity for one of their younger QBs to earn valuable reps.

If Cleveland continues to struggle out of the gate, Flacco should be yanked in exchange for one of his backups.

With a brutal opening schedule that includes matchups with the rival Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens leading into a grueling stretch against all three 2024 NFC North playoff teams, it makes sense to have Flacco shield the youngsters early on.

Once the slate softens in mid-October, it will be time for Pickett (or one of the rookies) to take the reins.

1. Daniel Jones/Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Daniel Jones, left, and Anthony Richardson

The Indianapolis Colts have a quarterback controversy to sort out, although neither of the two viable starting options offer much for fans to get excited about.

Anthony Richardson is entering a make-or-break third season, one that will likely determine his future in the league. After dazzling out of the gates as a tremendously hyped rookie, the 2023 No. 4 overall pick has only trended downward.

Upon recovering from the shoulder injury that limited him to just four starts as a rookie, Richardson went on to have an immensely disappointing sophomore campaign. He completed a putrid 47.7 percent of his passes—far and away the lowest mark in the league—for just 1,814 yards to go with a meager eight touchdown throws and 12 interceptions.

Although Richardson did contribute 499 yards and six scores on 86 totes, it's mostly a testament to Indianapolis' stingy defense and Jonathan Taylor's rushing talents that the Colts managed to go 6-5 across the quarterback's 11 starts in 2024.

With little in the way of potential franchise quarterbacks available in a weak 2025 draft class, the Colts were forced to hit the open market to find someone who could push Richardson this season.

Ultimately, they had to settle for Daniel Jones, the former New York Giants starter who was released last November and spent the rest of the year riding the pine with the Minnesota Vikings.

While the 28-year-old has had his moments over the last six years—including tantalizing with his immense potential as a rookie and cashing in on a blockbuster extension following a career-best campaign in 2022—it's largely been lowlights in between rare flashes of brilliance.

Jones has won a mere three games in his last 16 starts, throwing more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (10) in that span.

Unfortunately for the Colts, increased competition hasn't spurred Richardson to improve and a stint under Kevin O'Connell doesn't appear to have helped Jones. Per James Boyd of The Athletic, neither quarterback has stood out during the first week of training camp.

Regardless of which player ends up starting—the odds slightly favor Jones at the moment—it's unlikely they will be able to keep that role too long.

Expect head coach Shane Steichen to give the backup a chance once the starter inevitably hits a rough patch during what will likely be a painful season in Indy.