The Most Overvalued and Undervalued Players in 2025 Fantasy Football Entering August

We’re in the heat of the summer. And when I say “heat,” I mean heat—can’t speak for your neck of the woods, but where this writer hangs his hat, it has been miserably hot for a while now.

It’s hardly the ideal weather for padded practices, but those are underway as well—training camps are in full swing across the league.

And that means soon, the heat of fantasy draft season will be as well.

Savvy fantasy managers are already busily preparing for draft day. Perusing camp reports. Making adjustments to their rankings where necessary (Pour one out for Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon). Doing everything they can to find potential values.

There’s no more important word in fantasy football than value. Drafting players who are undervalued and coming off the board later than they should be are how fantasy playoff runs begin. Selecting overvalued players being taken earlier than they should be are how seasons are sunk before leaves even start changing color.

If only there was a list to identify players on both sides of that fantasy fence—say a breakdown of the most overvalued and undervalued player in fantasy football at each position as we head into August.

That would be super-helpful. Convenient, even.

Overvalued QB: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Peter Aiken

ADP: QB1, 23rd Overall

There’s no debate that Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL—maybe the best. Last year, Allen threw for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns against just six interceptions, scored 12 more touchdowns on the ground and won the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award.

However, drafting Allen (or any quarterback, for that matter) in Round 2 is a bad idea.

For starters, for as well as Allen played last year, three quarterbacks scored more fantasy points. As Matthew Freedman pointed out at A Fantasy Life, managers are drafting at ceiling—and drafting at ceiling is bad, mmmkay?

“As the reigning MVP, Josh Allen is elite, but he has little room to outperform his overall ADP, he has only modest support from his pass catchers, and the three QBs immediately trailing him in ADP—Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts—all could finish the season with comparable (if not superior) production. Even for a luxury item, Allen feels a tad too expensive.”

Also, even if the first quarterback drafted in fantasy actually finishes in that spot (which almost never happens), the edge gained by fantasy managers isn’t worth the hole that taking a signal-caller this early creates at running back or wide receiver. The gap between the No. 1 quarterback (Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens) and No. 12 quarterback in fantasy points per game (Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos) last year was 6.8 points—a smaller gap than between the “best” and “worst” weekly starters in the backfield and at wideout.

Let someone else break the seal at the position. The value at quarterback lies later.

Undervalued QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Gareth Patterson

ADP: QB14, 104th Overall

Fantasy drafters have long memories. They also hold grudges. If a player burns them the season before, forget them—they are blacklisted. Crossed off the list of draft-day targets, never to be heard from again.

The thing is, that creates the potential for value—if you’re the forgiving type.

Yes, Dak Prescott’s 2024 season was a mess—just eight games played, fewer than 2,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. But two years ago, Prescott was third in the NFL in passing yards and led the NFL in touchdown passes with 36.

Per Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros, those aren’t the only numbers that should appeal to fantasy drafters.

“Last year, in Weeks 1-8, Dallas ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and tenth in pass rate over expectation. Last year, Prescott’s passing touchdown rate dipped to 3.8%, which was the first time since 2020 that his passing touchdown rate had dipped below 5.8%. Prescott will throw for more touchdowns in 2025. We’re only one season removed from him finishing as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Invest in Prescott.”

The arrival of George Pickens in Dallas gives Prescott his best No. 2 wide receiver in some time. And given the uncertainty surrounding the Dallas ground game, the Cowboys could possess one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the NFL in 2025.

There’s a legitimate path to top-five fantasy production from Prescott this season.

Overvalued RB: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

ADP: RB1, 2nd Overall

Saquon Barkley had a fantastic 2024 season—over 2,000 rushing yards and the most fantasy points per game among running backs.

He’s also a season-killer in fantasy leagues.

For starters, Barkley had 378 touches last year, which puts him squarely in the crosshairs of the Curse of 370.

Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back eclipsed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, two gained more total yards the following year. Two saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases—but the average decrease in average decrease in fantasy production for 370-touch backs over the past decade is nearly 50 percent.

Let’s say you believe Barkley can dodge the curse. There’s also the matter of his becoming the ninth member of the 2K Club in 2024.

Six of the eight running backs who have gained 2,000 rushing yards in a season went on to miss time the following year (the workload Terrell Davis saw in 1997 and 1998 effectively ended his career). No back has ever followed up a 2,000-yard season with even a 1,500-yard one, just one (Barry Sanders in 1998) saw his rushing yards fall by less than 30 percent the following season. Three of eight fell off by at least 50 percent. The average decline in rushing production from a running back following a 2,000-yard season is 966 yards.

Again, a drop-off of nearly half.

That’s without even getting into what happens to players who lead the NFL in rushing the following year.

Guess what? Also not good.

Undervalued RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

ADP: RB16, 44th Overall

Every year, there are players whose ADP is just headache-inducing. It makes no sense.

Yes, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is old by NFL running back standards—he just turned 30. Yes, he has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season. And yes, the Saints offense is likely to struggle at times in 2025.

But the Saints ranked outside the top 20 in total offense a year ago, and Kamara set a career high in rushing, flirted with 1,500 total yards and finished the year as a top-five running back in PPR points per game.

Per C.H. Herms of FTN, since Kamara entered the NFL in 2017, no back has more PPR points.

But wait, there’s more from Herms:

“Across his eight-year career, Kamara has finished as an RB1 in per-game PPR scoring in every single season. The worst he’s done to date came in 2022 (15.1), and he was still tied with Leonard Fournette as the RB11 that year! Even a “disappointment” by his standards is great for most running backs--he’s that kind of good. The fact is, if you’ve drafted Alvin Kamara, there’s a decent chance you’ve won a fantasy championship. This is one of the absolute best in the game, and the numbers back it up. You can’t go wrong with the classics, folks.”

Kamara is being drafted five slots lower among running backs than he has ever finished in PPR points. That’s drafting at a player’s floor.

Drafting at floor is how fantasy leagues are won.

Overvalued WR: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

ADP: WR12, 27th Overall

A year ago at this time, Tyreek Hill was arguably the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football. The year before, he led the AFC with 119 catches, paced the league with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns and had more PPR fantasy points than any wideout not named CeeDee Lamb.

Last year was a different story, though. The 31-year-old caught just 81 passes for 959 yards—the first time he failed to hit 1,000 yards since 2019. His six touchdowns tied a career-low. He averaged less than 12 yards a catch for just the third time in his career. And his 12.8 PPR points per game ranked outside the top-30 wideouts.

Some have written that down year off. After all, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed significant time, and Hill battled a wrist injury much of the season.

However, the staff at Rotoballer believes Hill’s issues a year ago go deeper than that:

“Hill took a big step back in 2024 that you can't explain with a wrist injury, which doesn't affect the lower body's ability to generate power and speed, and that you can't blame on Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. Hill's tape showed a few shocking plays in which he failed to outrun players it seems like he'd normally blaze by. GPS tracking data also shows that Hill didn't exceed 20.52 miles per hour a single time with the ball in his hands. Hill reached over 22 MPH on numerous occasions throughout his career in the past, so this is deeply worrying. It appears the age cliff could finally be here for him.”

Hill was never a technician. Nor is he a big-bodied type who is going to consistently win contested catches. If he has lost a step, he’s not going to post fantasy WR1 numbers.

And that’s what he has to do to return value at this asking price.

Undervalued WR: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

ADP: WR25, 54th Overall

Xavier Worthy’s days of being undervalued may come with an expiration date.

At some point, the NFL is going to suspend Rashee Rice for his role in a street-racing incident and hit-and-run crash. Worthy’s asking price is already beginning to increase.

But right now, he is still available in high-end fantasy WR3 territory. And for Mike Fanelli of Fantasy Pros, that ADP screams value:

“Worthy had a solid rookie year, finishing as the WR33, averaging 11 PPR fantasy points per game. However, he started to shine after Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury. More importantly, the former Texas star ended the year on fire. Worthy was the WR10 during the fantasy playoffs, averaging 10.3 targets and 21 fantasy points per game, totaling 19.6 or more in every outing. Furthermore, he was outstanding in the Super Bowl, totaling two touchdowns and 35.7 fantasy points. Worthy’s 0.61 fantasy points per route run ranked 15th out of 88 wide receivers with at least 50 routes during the fantasy playoffs, posting a higher average than Ja’Marr Chase (0.47), per Fantasy Points Data.”

Expecting Worthy to catch eight passes for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns (his stat line in Kansas City’s loss in Super Bowl LIX) isn’t reasonable. But with Rice staring at a multi-game suspension and coming off a major injury, the door is open for Worthy to stake his claim as Kansas City’s top wideout.

And with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes making it clear that he wants to attack opposing defenses vertically more this season, that could mean big things for Worthy in 2025.

Overvalued TE: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

AP Foto/Nick Wass

ADP: TE7, 80th Overall

Fantasy managers essentially have three choices at tight end this year: Pay retail for a “Big 3” option (Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders, Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals and George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers), punt the position until late or target a Tier 2 option at the position like Baltimore’s Mark Andrews.

Andrews was sixth in PPR points at the position last year, thanks largely to 11 touchdowns—most among tight ends.

However, as Corey Pieper wrote for Fantasy Six Pack, Andrews got off to a miserable start to the 2024 campaign. And smart fantasy managers know outlier touchdown spikes rarely repeat:

“It was a tale of two halves for Mark Andrews in 2024. Through the first nine weeks of last season, Andrews averaged just 8.5 fantasy points per game and had two games without a single reception. From Week 10 on, he looked more like his old self, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. That ranked fourth among tight ends over that span. So, what changed midseason? You could argue he was finally healthy after offseason surgery. That’s possible, as his targets increased from just over three per game in the first half to five per game in the second. A more likely explanation is touchdown luck. Andrews scored a touchdown in seven of his final eight games and finished the season with 11 touchdowns on 55 receptions. That is a 20 percent touchdown rate, which is highly unsustainable. He also caught 79.7 percent of his targets, well above his career average. Heading into 2024, his career catch rate was just 67.7 percent.”

Over the first month of last season, he had six catches for 65 yards—total. Add in the presence of Isaiah Likely, and Andrews is more likely to finish outside the top-10 than inside the top-five.

Undervalued TE: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

ADP: TE9, 91st Overall

OK, let’s get this out of the way: The Browns will almost certainly suck in 2025.

Only they could have four quarterbacks (five if you count the injured Deshaun Watson) and none simultaneously. There’s a has-been in Joe Flacco. A never-was in Kenny Pickett. And a pair of unproven rookies in Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.

However, it’s not like terrible quarterback play in Cleveland is breaking news. And as Maurile Tremblay pointed out at Footballguys, that didn’t stop David Njoku from posting a TE6 finish in PPR points per game in 2024:

"Despite Cleveland's league-worst 15.2 points per game and quarterback instability in 2024, David Njoku quietly produced elite-level efficiency. He ranked fourth among tight ends with 13.5 fantasy points per game, driven by an average of 8.1 targets per game and an impressive 23.4% targets-per-route rate, both among the top five at his position. Even amid offensive turmoil, Njoku recorded 64 catches, 505 yards, and five touchdowns in only 11 appearances, demonstrating a reliable floor regardless of quarterback play.

"In response to their struggles, the Browns promoted tight ends coach Tommy Rees to offensive coordinator and reinstated play-calling duties to Kevin Stefanski. These moves keep Njoku connected to a coaching staff that consistently directs approximately 25% of targets to tight ends and explicitly trusts him in crucial situations. The lack of significant depth behind him further secures his snap share."

In terms of proven pass-catchers, the Browns have Njoku, wideout Jerry Jeudy—and that’s about it. Cleveland should be playing from behind approximately 146 percent of the time in 2025. And no matter who starts under center, that quarterback is going to be playing behind a subpar offensive line.

They are going to need a safety valve over the middle of the field.