MLB Insiders Reportedly Think Padres Will 'Crash Under the Weight' of 'Big Contracts'

Two years after their payroll peaked, the San Diego Padres' financial outlook remains a source of fascination to people within Major League Baseball leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

Per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, there's a feeling within the industry that the Padres will "crash under the weight of their big contracts."

Unlike past questions from MLB personnel wondering how the Padres' financial investment in the roster was sustainable, these current concerns are largely built around having an older core group of players with backloaded contracts.

Xander Bogaerts (32), Manny Machado (33) and Yu Darvish (38) are all signed through at least their age-40 seasons. Bogaerts is still owed $203.6 million over the next eight years. Machado will be making $39.1 million for seven seasons starting in 2027.

Even a player like Fernando Tatis Jr., who is only 26, is going to see his annual salary climb up to $36.7 million in 2029 and be paid that amount for six years through his age-35 season.

The trio of Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis will be making $89.1 million in 2027 and $100.8 million in 2029. Machado and Tatis are still playing at a high level, making their money owed less of a concern.

Bogaerts has had a solid rebound season after a down 2024, but he's barely above-average as a hitter by OPS+ (102). His offensive decline puts a lot more pressure on his defense at shortstop to sustain going forward.

This does leave Padres general manager A.J. Preller in a potentially difficult position going forward, but there have already been some indications he is thinking outside the box in an attempt to avoid the crushing weight of those contracts.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network reported on Thursday the Padres are willing to entertain offers for Dylan Cease, even though they currently lead the third wild-card spot in the NL by one game.

Rosenthal cited closer Robert Suárez as someone who could be dealt by the Padres prior to the trade deadline.

Having a bad contract or two doesn't necessarily ruin a team's chances of contending, but they have to be able to offset with a farm system that will provide them with cost-controlled talent.

San Diego's farm system was ranked No. 25 by MLB.com entering this season. The Padres are still in good shape right now with a 55-48 record and in the thick of the playoff race in a tightly-contested National League.