Predicting the Top 5 MLB Cy Young Finishers in AL and NL Post-2025 All-Star Break

A year ago at the All-Star break, B/R correctly predicted Tarik Skubal would win the AL Cy Young Award and Chris Sale would take home the NL Cy Young Award. That might not seem like an earth-shattering projection, but both had durability questions.

We'll try to make it two years in a row, taking the sample of just over half the regular season to project how the races for the top pitching honor in each league will play out.

Here are B/R's predictions on the top-five finishers in both the AL and NL Cy Award races.

AL No. 5: Max Fried, New York Yankees

Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Max Fried is coming off of an All-Star appearance in his first season with the Yankees. Could he wind up adding some more hardware before the first of eight campaigns in the Bronx concludes?

The 31-year-old probably has an uphill battle to actually win the AL Cy Young Award, but he's definitely a favorite to be in the top five as he enters the second half with an 11-3 record, a 2.43 ERA and a 3.02 FIP over 122 innings pitched.

Prior to joining the Yankees, Fried posted a pair of top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Atlanta Braves. He was the runner-up to Sandy Alcántara in 2022.

AL No. 4: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Tim Warner/Getty Images

Hunter Brown has to make this list after being one of the breakout stars of the first half of the 2025 MLB season.

Among AL starters, the 26-year-old is in the top five in ERA (2.43), FIP (3.02), strikeouts (137), K/9 (10.72) and WAR (3.0), per FanGraphs. His breakout a year ago probably didn't get talked about enough, but his ascension into one of the game's elite aces this year is impossible to ignore.

If you want to know how the Astros always wind up in the playoffs, it's because right as Justin Verlander aged out, they had another arm in Brown ready to take his spot at the top of the rotation.

AL No. 3: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Tim Warner/Getty Images

Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have had pretty similar seasons thus far for the Astros, so we'll give the nod here to the pitcher with the longer track record of sustaining ace-level production over a full season.

Valdez wasn't an All-Star, but he should have been. He's tossed two complete games this year, and he has a 10-4 record with a 2.75 ERA and 3.02 FIP over 121 innings pitched this season.

The 31-year-old lefty will get the last laugh this offseason in free agency. Whether it's from the Astros or another club, Valdez is going to receive a very lucrative deal if he continues to pitch like this.

AL No. 2: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Garrett Crochet has been downright dominant in his first season in Boston. And unlike this time a year ago with the Chicago White Sox, there's no innings limit or trade rumors swirling around him.

An All-Star for the second consecutive season, the 26-year-old leads baseball in strikeouts (160), innings pitched (129.1) and batters faced (513). He's tied for the lowest ERA among qualified starters in the junior circuit at 2.23, and according to Baseball Reference, his 185 ERA+ is the best mark in the AL.

Crochet is still second in the race to Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, but he's nipping at his heels.

AL No. 1: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal has set himself up well to become the first pitcher to win consecutive AL Cy Young Awards since Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.

The 28-year-old will enter the second half of the season with a 4.7 WAR, which FanGraphs says comfortably tops any other pitcher in baseball (Crochet is next at 4.3). Skubal also leads all MLB pitchers in the following categories: FIP (2.02), WHIP (0.826), BB/9 (1.2), SO/9 (11.4) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (9.56).

Since the start of the second half of the 2023 season, Skubal has unquestionably been the best pitcher in baseball. There's no reason that won't continue.

NL No. 5: Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Joe Scarnici/Getty Images

Cristopher Sánchez was one of the most notable All-Star Game snubs, which will look even more ridiculous at the end of the year if he finishes where we predict in NL Cy Young Award voting.

After a breakout season saw him make his first All-Star Game appearance and finish 10th in NL Cy Young Award voting a year ago, the 28-year-old has been even better in 2025. He ranks sixth or better among NL pitchers in ERA (2.50), FIP (2.74), HR/9 (0.55) and WAR (3.2), per FanGraphs.

Sánchez is often overlooked in perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball. But he's been more durable than teammates Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo, two arms he edged out to claim this spot.

NL No. 4: MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

MacKenzie Gore finally looks like the frontline pitcher he once appeared destined to be when he was one of baseball's most coveted prospects in the system of the San Diego Padres.

The 26-year-old lefty just made his first All-Star Game appearance, and he has a 3.02 ERA, 2.91 FIP and 11.26 K/9 to show for 110.1 innings pitched this season.

Trading Juan Soto is about as unenviable of a task as you can have as a baseball executive. But former general manager Mike Rizzo did an incredible job in the return he got for Soto from the Padres in the summer of 2022, landing building blocks with Gore, left fielder James Wood and shortstop CJ Abrams.

NL No. 3: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

Logan Webb continues to be one of the most reliable arms of this era, and he was just rewarded with his second All-Star Game nod in a row as recognition.

The 28-year-old is on track to lead the National League in innings pitched for the third year in a row, with his 125.2 currently the high-water mark in the senior circuit.

What makes him so special isn't just that he's workhorse, but that he's an ace who logs a ton of innings, as he has a 2.94 ERA and 3.4 WAR in 20 outings this year.

This would be Webb's third straight finish in the top six in NL Cy Young Award voting. He was runner-up to Blake Snell in 2023 and finished sixth a year ago.

NL No. 2: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

It feels like we're destined to one day have a Hall of Fame discussion about Zack Wheeler, and the fact that he was consistently the groomsman but never the groom might be used against him.

Let's be clear: Wheeler is very much neck-and-neck for the top spot in the NL with Paul Skenes. He's second in WAR to Skenes (3.7), and he currently leads the NL in strikeouts (154), WHIP (0.861), H/9 (5.8) and K/9 (11.4). He's done all of that with a 2.36 ERA over 122 innings.

Wheeler has been the most consistent ace of this decade in baseball.

But if he finishes runner-up, it would be the third time in his career he had that distinction. Wheeler finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting to Chris Sale in 2024 and to Corbin Burnes in 2021.

NL No. 1: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

People tend not to like when someone so young immediately becomes one of the faces of the sport, but Paul Skenes has earned it.

The 23-year-old is probably the most dominant young pitcher baseball has seen since Doc Gooden with the New York Mets in the 1980s.

After winning NL Rookie of the Year and finishing third in Cy Young voting a season ago, Skenes pitched well enough to start his second consecutive All-Star Game. He leads all of baseball in ERA (2.01) and ERA+ (212) while owning the top marks in the NL in FIP (2.40), HR/9 (0.4) and WAR (4.0).

There's no doubt he is going to face stiff competition from Wheeler and others for this award, and some voters—though we would advise against this strategy—may hold it against him that he won't be pitching in meaningful games down the stretch.

Right now, though, Skenes is definitely the NL Cy Young favorite.