Fantasy Football Busts You Need to Avoid in 2025

Fantasy football drafts are one of the most exciting parts of any new NFL campaign. With every manager starting on equal footing in redraft formats, these events set the stage for a thrilling season-long competition.

While managers can't win a league during a fantasy draft, they can almost ruin their chances of lifting the league's trophy later in the year by botching their selections.

It's imperative managers put together a sound plan for their draft and stick to it while on the clock. Regardless of whether they plan to utilize strategies such as Zero RB or Hero RB, Elite QB or Late-Round QB, all fantasy managers should cobble together a list of players to avoid unless they significantly slip from their average draft position (ADP).

Having these potential busts identified on a "do not draft" list can make things far easier when put on the spot and feeling the pressure to make a pick.

Picking out these busts may not be easy, but we are here to help by highlighting one player at each key fantasy football position with a high likelihood of having an underwhelming 2025 season.

Whether they’re injury-prone, playing in a new system that doesn't suit their strengths or were negatively impacted by the litany of personnel changes around the league this offseason, the following players—who all are being drafted among the top 15 at their respective positions—should be avoided near their current ADP.

Fantasy points, rankings and ADP courtesy of FantasyPros.com using PPR data.

QB: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

ADP: QB7, No. 57 overall

Baker Mayfield's return to prominence has been one of the NFL's best storylines of the past two seasons.

After being cast aside by the Cleveland Browns—the team that selected him atop the 2018 draft—the 30-year-old has turned in a brilliant second act as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' franchise quarterback.

Mayfield assumed the starting role in 2023 and immediately rewarded the Bucs' decision by leading them to an NFC South crown and shocking playoff win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

While it was an impressive debut, the signal-caller's stats weren't quite elite and he remained off the fantasy radar heading into the 2024 season.

Working with offensive coordinator Liam Coen elevated Mayfield into one of the league's most productive quarterbacks. After entering 2024 as the QB21 with an ADP of 158, he wound up having far and away the best season of his seven-year career and finished as the QB4.

The Oklahoma product thrived in Coen's creative scheme. He tied Lamar Jackson for the second-most touchdown throws in the NFL (41) and his 4,500 passing yards ranked behind only Joe Burrow and Jared Goff on the year.

Unfortunately for the Bucs, Coen won't be around to run it back after he accepted the Jacksonville Jaguars head coaching gig early in the offseason. His departure will likely coincide with a noticeable regression from Mayfield, whose QB10 finish in 2023 marked the only other top-15 performance of his career.

Even if replacement OC Josh Grizzard lives up to his billing as a "wizard," it's hard to envision Mayfield repeating as a top-five QB. His current QB7 ADP feels a bit out of reach as well, especially when factoring in that he put up 378 rushing yards last year—well above his career 17-game average of 193 yards—and scored more than one touchdown on the ground for only the second time in seven NFL seasons.

If those rushing stats regress toward the mean and the passing game takes a step back under first-time coordinator Grizzard, it's far more likely Mayfield places outside the top 12 this season than within it.

RB: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

ADP: RB4, No. 9 overall

Christian McCaffrey torched many fantasy managers' hopes of contending last year and could do it all over again in 2025.

Prior to breaking managers' hearts, the San Francisco 49ers star was a fantasy darling and the consensus No. 1 overall pick during the 2024 fantasy draft window.

McCaffrey was coming off an incredible 2023 season—his first full campaign with the Niners—in which put up an eye-popping 391.3 fantasy points, outscoring his closest running back competition by over 100 points and coming in behind only Josh Allen and CeeDee Lamb for most fantasy points produced in total that year.

Instead of repeating those tremendous feats, the 29-year-old opened 2024 on the PUP list and finished it on injured reserve, making just four appearances in total on the year.

While he did notch a pair of top-15 showings in the short span he returned to the field for, McCaffrey never posted a weekly finish above RB10 and didn't display the same explosion and elusiveness that defined his 2023 campaign.

While 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk recently said McCaffrey "looks incredible" and commended his teammate's return to form ahead of training camp, it's still a massive risk to take him near the top of a fantasy draft.

Health hasn't been kind to the three-time Pro Bowler during the last half-decade. While he didn't miss a game during his first three seasons in the league, the dynamic playmaker has only appeared in 47 of a possible 84 contests since the start of 2020.

McCaffrey has a history of missing an extensive amount time in back-to-back seasons as well, notably participating in just three matchups in 2020 and seven the following year.

With McCaffrey now 29 and having nearly 1,900 touches under his belt, it won't get easier to stay on the field. Fantasy managers seeking stability and consistency from their first-round pick would be wise to avoid the lure of his upside.

Even if McCaffrey opens the year strong (such as in 2023 when he posted four consecutive top-seven finishes during September), it seems almost inevitable he'll eventually be sidelined for a stretch—an extremely troubling concern that could result in lost fantasy seasons and missed playoff berths.

WR: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes

ADP: WR14, No. 25 overall

Garrett Wilson has had a great start to his career, and his immense efforts were rewarded by the New York Jets with a four-year, $130 million contract extension this past week.

While his blockbuster pay day was well-deserved, it remains to be seen if he can continue to produce at a high level this upcoming season.

With the motivation to earn generational wealth on a second contract now gone, the 24-year-old will need to find ways to improve upon a relatively disappointing finish to the 2024 season.

After opening last season with 97.4 fantasy points over the first six games—ranking No. 7 in the league during that period—Wilson's production took a sharp downturn after the Jets acquired Davante Adams in Week 7 and on. He finished the last 11 contests with154.5 points, just the 22nd-most at the position in that span.

Although Adams is now out of the picture, things may not get easier for New York's top remaining receiver.

While it wasn't a shock that Aaron Rodgers had better chemistry with a longtime teammate in Adams, the former Jets QB was still a future Hall of Famer who looked for the young wideout often enough that Wilson's 154 targets tied Justin Jefferson for fourth-most in the league.

It won't help the Ohio State product return to form after there was a clear regression in the team's passing capabilities following the decision to replace Rodgers with Justin Fields.

While Fields displayed some improvements to his shaky arm by completing a personal-best 65.8 percent of throws in 2024, he still has a concerning 61.1 percent career completion percentage and hasn't fared well during previous stints as a full-time starter.

While Fields' dual-threat abilities could boost a Jets offense that struggled under Rodgers, his penchant for keeping the ball will result in a noticeable downtick in targets and scoring opportunities for Wilson.

Considering Wilson was the WR21 and WR26 during the first two years of his career while working with poor passers such as Zach Wilson, the mid 20s to low 30s seems to be a far more realistic range for the wideout to finish in than the WR14 he's currently being drafted as.

WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

ADP: WR6, No. 10 overall

Nico Collins has been a revelation ever since his breakout 2023 season with the Houston Texans. Thanks to the establishment of an immediate rapport with quarterback C.J. Stroud, the wideout has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and scored 15 touchdowns in that time.

While Collins' production is noteworthy, he has yet to rank above the WR12 spot in any season and is coming off an injury-plagued campaign in which he only posted a WR23 finish. Despite this, he's being drafted as the WR6 and isn't making it out of the first round in the majority of fantasy drafts.

Collins may have tied with CeeDee Lamb for the eighth-highest average fantasy points per game at the receiver position, but health has been an issue throughout his career and lowers his ceiling significantly.

Counting on the 26-year-old to make it through a full season unscathed would be imprudent, especially after he missed a total of 14 contests over the past three years with various ailments.

Even if Collins can stay healthy, he's going to find it far tougher to consistently post productive fantasy outings in 2025. The Texans parted ways with Stefon Diggs and can't count on Tank Dell to return to 100 percent after a litany of injuries has marred the wideout's fledgling career.

Although Houston did restock the receiving corps by drafting Jayden Higgins and signing Christian Kirk, Collins will be facing the opposition's top defensive backs on a regular basis.

If Stroud doesn't return to his Offensive Rookie of the Year form following a sophomore slump, Houston will likely continue to lean heavily on the ground game to generate offense.

The squad passed on a meager 52.3 percent of offensive plays over the final three contests of 2024—ranking in the bottom quarter of the league during that span—and could feed its running backs even more this season following the acquisition of Nick Chubb.

A healthy Collins should still be a decent fantasy asset in 2025, but drafting him with expectations of a top-five, or even a top-15 finish, is far too optimistic.

TE: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

ADP: TE8, No. 105 overall

Mark Andrews has been a pillar of the Baltimore Ravens offense for the last seven years, but the aging tight end has been steadily declining in usage and could slide even further this season.

It’s not easy to fade the 29-year-old, especially on the heels of a vintage 2024 campaign in which he appeared in all 17 games—his first fully healthy season since 2021—and finished as the TE6 with a respectable 188.8 fantasy points.

This performance marked a notable improvement over his injury-plagued 2023, a year when he finished as the TE15 largely due to his absence from seven contests.

As great as Andrews was last year, it seems unlikely he'll ever return to the high-volume option he was during his pair of standout Pro Bowl campaigns in 2021-22. He averaged 90 receptions, 133 targets, 1,104 receiving yards and seven scores during that span and even finished as the TE1 by a wide margin during a career-best 2021 season.

Since the start of 2023, though, Andrews has only averaged 50 receptions, 65 targets and 609 receiving yards. Much of his value is now tied to touchdowns, as the big tight end put up 17 scores—including 11 last season—during that term.

With the continued rise of Zay Flowers as quarterback Lamar Jackson's preferred target in an offense that only threw on 46.5 percent of offensive snaps—the second-lowest passing percentage in the NFL last season—and the addition of veteran Pro Bowler DeAndre Hopkins into the mix, Andrews' looks could be even more infrequent in 2025.

Drafting Andrews as a TE8 should only occur with the assumption he will frequent the end zone even more often than he did during his career-best touchdown-making campaign in 2024.

Given the increased competition for red area targets from Hopkins—coupled with Andrews ending last season by dropping a crucial two-point conversion in the AFC Divisional Round—it's unlikely the TE can reach the double-digit scoring mark again.

While a reasonable 50/500/5 stat projection would still make Andrews startable, it would likely result in placement outside the top 10 and isn't worth paying a premium in drafts for.