MLB Home Run Derby 2025 Odds and Score Predictions for Full Bracket
The Major League Baseball home run leader, a handful of young stars and a star of the All-Star Game host team are among the participants for the 2025 Home Run Derby.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is understandably the favorite. “Big Dumper” comes into Sunday with 38 home runs. That’s 14 more long balls than anyone else in the field has hit.
Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood has been one of the breakout stars of the 2025 MLB season. He’ll be under the spotlight along with Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero as young stars on display in the event.
Matt Olson will represent the host Atlanta Braves. He is looking to become the first player to win the Home Run Derby in his home ballpark since Bryce Harper did that in 2018 as a member of the Nationals.
Home Run Derby Odds
Cal Raleigh (+295; bet $100 to win $295)
Oneil Cruz (+325)
James Wood (+475)
Matt Olson (+800)
Brent Rooker (+850)
Byron Buxton (+950)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1100)
Junior Caminero (+1200)
Rules
Each of the eight players have either three minutes or 40 pitches to hit as many home runs as they can in the first round.
There is also a bonus period in which the participant can hit as many home runs before three outs. A player can get an extra out to work with if he hits a home run of at least 425 feet in the bonus period.
The semifinals and final are both determined by head-to-head results. The semi finalists and finalists have two minutes or 27 pitches to hit as many home runs as possible.
If either a semifinal or the final is tied, the players go into a swing-off until a winner is determined.
Predictions
A year ago, Teoscar Hernandez hit 49 home runs on his way to the Derby title.
Bobby Witt Jr. actually finished with one more total home run than Hernandez, but he fell short in the final by one dinger.
The two losing semifinalists, Alec Bohm and Jose Ramirez, were the only other batters in the competition to hit more than 20 home runs.
With the same rules in place for 2025, we should expect the winner to hit around 50 home runs.
Which player gets to that mark is a bit of a mystery. Raleigh is the clear favorite in the field, but to win, he has to buck a trend that doesn’t favor catchers. A catcher has never won the Home Run Derby.
You could argue that no catcher has had the power season that Raleigh is having, but that’s still a fact to keep in your mind when picking a favorite.
Olson and Buxton are the sentimental picks. Olson will be hitting in his home ballpark and he has the edge of previously participating in a Home Run Derby.
Buxton is a Georgia native and could be motivated to win the event in the state he grew up in.
James Wood is a fascinating pick as well. The Derby will be his first showcase on a national stage and he has the second-most homers in the field behind Raleigh.
Wood has not only hit home runs in volume, but he’s hit them a long distance as well, with his longest dinger being 451 feet.
Wood also has familiarity hitting inside Truist Park in Atlanta as a player in the National League East.
At +475, Wood has solid betting value as well to follow in the footsteps of Bryce Harper and Juan Soto as young Nationals players to win the Derby.
Prediction: Wood wins with 47 home runs
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