Analyzing Updated 2026 Stanley Cup Odds After the NHL Draft and Free Agency
The first week of 2025 NHL free agency is done, and most of the bigger free-agent situations have been settled.
Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad are all staying in Florida, Brock Boeser is sticking with Vancouver, Vegas took Mitch Marner off the market with a sign-and-trade before he even hit it, and Nikolaj Ehlers is headed to the Hurricanes.
There are still a few loose ends for teams to tie up throughout the summer, but the bulk of needle-moving signings are behind us. This means we can start to look at DraftKings' early odds for the 2026 Stanley Cup.
We've tiered off the 32 teams based on those numbers as we take our first crack at analyzing the 2026 NHL season.
The Gavin McKenna Tier
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31. (tie) San Jose Sharks (+50000)
The Sharks remain at the bottom of the tank this year, and that's OK. They're still drowning in cap space with not much to show for it after a quiet free agency, and again, that's OK. The rebuild is still in progress, and the great pieces they've acquired over the past few seasons are going to take their next steps.
31. (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (+50000)
The Blackhawks are another rebuilding team that had tons of cap space and not many enticing free agents to use it on this offseason. It is what it is, and it's good that they didn't spend money just to spend it.
30. Seattle Kraken (+20000)
The Kraken had a rough 2024-25 in the goal-scoring department, and they've done nothing so far to improve on that this offseason. We expect Matty Beniers and Shane Wright to take some positive steps, but we (and the oddsmakers) need to see that to believe it.
28. Pittsburgh Penguins (+15000)
The Penguins get a front-row seat to the Gavin McKenna show in their backyard at Penn State, and for the first time in a long time, they're going to need it. They've committed to attempting a smart and efficient retool under GM Kyle Dubas while Sidney Crosby is still in the league, but even the quickest retools require a full season or so of struggle. Welcome to the struggle, Pittsburgh.
The All-Lumped-Together at +10000 Tier
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We've got six teams here tied with +10000 odds to win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup, and the teams are all over the place when it comes to where they're at in their respective situations. While it's highly unlikely any of these teams actually win a Cup (none of them even made the playoffs last season), some long shots here have better value than the others.
New York Islanders
This year's No. 1 overall pick Matthew Schaefer is a defenseman who is going to crack the Islanders' lineup this season and make a potentially significant impact on the team. The oddsmakers don't like uncertainty, so it makes sense a player who hasn't touched NHL ice hasn't done much to improve their official Cup odds. But they've probably got a better crack at the Cup than most others here, so do with that information what you will.
Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres are not going to win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are a bit of a wild card given their desire to make the playoffs this year and the amount of cap space they have to make some more significant moves as the offseason goes on. Their young core is poised to take its next step into becoming a competitive team, but a Cup doesn't seem to be on the horizon just yet.
Philadelphia Flyers
It's an exciting time for the Flyers, who brought in team legend and Jack Adams winner Rick Tocchet to coach the team. They also added Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak and goalie Dan Vladar into the mix to round out multiple problem areas on the roster. They could make the playoffs this year, and that feels like a good enough step for the franchise right now.
Boston Bruins
DraftKings had the Bruins at +1800 odds to win the 2024-25 Stanley Cup, and now they're at +10000 to win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup. That basically sums it up.
Calgary Flames
The Flames made an unexpectedly decent push last season, but they fell short of a trip to the playoffs. Now it's time to focus on building the team for the future with young goalie Dustin Wolf at its center.
The Pretenders
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21. (tie) Detroit Red Wings +7500
The Red Wings' young core is poised to take a step forward this year after improving dramatically halfway through last season. Plus, the John Gibson acquisition could make an impact in net. There are still some major holes when it comes to the overall team defense, and they need another solid center and defenseman before we really start talking about the Cup.
21. (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets +7500
The Blue Jackets were able to re-sign Ivan Provorov, but they didn't do much to fill major holes all across the lineup while losing some key depth players such as James van Riemsdyk and Sean Kuraly. They're still in a rebuilding phase, so it's fine if they aren't competing for a playoff spot this year.
19. Nashville Predators +6000
The oddsmakers don't know what to do with the Nashville Predators, and neither do any of the rest of us. Will they continue racing to the bottom of the West with non-cohesive defense, or will those big signings from last offseason finally pan out the way we thought they would?
17. (tie) Vancouver Canucks +5500
The Canucks were able to hang onto Brock Boeser, extend Thatcher Demko and sign Evander Kane. Their farm team also won the Calder Cup, indicating a few depth pieces could make an impact next year at an NHL level in the bottom six. If Demko can remain healthy, things might not be so disastrous for Vancouver this year.
17. (tie) Montreal Canadiens +5500
The Canadiens were ahead of schedule in making last season's playoffs. They gave the Capitals a legitimate first-round fight, but the mismatch ultimately showed the work the young roster has to do. They've made some solid moves this offseason to shore up the depth around the emerging stars, and now the real work begins.
The Betting Dark Horses Tier
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14. (tie) St. Louis Blues +4000
The Blues were seconds away from the second round after ending the regular season the hottest team of the second half. Losing Zack Bolduc hurts, but adding Pius Suter and Nick Bjugstad in free agency could be huge for scoring consistency. Will St. Louis pick up right where it left off last season, or will we see some regression?
14. (tie) Minnesota Wild +4000
The Wild had a solid first round in the playoffs last year that the Golden Knights cut short with a few solid bounces and a better special teams situation. Minnesota needs to address special teams all around from now until next postseason, but it's got potential to make its current +4000 odds look like great value when the postseason rolls around.
14. (tie) Utah Mammoth +4000
The Mammoth had severe scoring woes last season, but they were also dealing with a young roster and injuries to key players. They made some noise to address all of this last week. If their goaltending holds up, their young scorers develop some consistency and the roster remains healthy, Utah could have an interesting sophomore season.
13. Ottawa Senators +3000
The Senators had their first taste of the playoffs in the Brady Tkachuk era last season, and they're coming back for more. If a few more depth scoring options enter the chat and Linus Ullmark can translate his regular-season success to the postseason, Ottawa could make some noise this year.
The Betting Contenders Tier
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11. (tie) Washington Capitals +2800
The Capitals were the best team in the East to end the 2024-25 regular season, but they were also a second-round exit. They need a bit more depth to round out the forward group, and they've yet to find it this offseason.
11. (tie) New York Rangers +2800
The Rangers made some savvy moves this offseason that have them right back in a contending tier after a disastrous 2024-25 season and missing the playoffs. The odds might feel a little inflated considering how bad things got, but they still have one of the best goaltenders in the world, the necessary trades have been made and we're anticipating a bounce back after almost the entire roster regressed last season.
10. Winnipeg Jets +2500
The Presidents' Trophy winners odds seem too long, until you remember what the Winnipeg Jets do in the playoffs. Not only do they blow it every time, but their most important player, Connor Hellebuyck, tends to struggle. Maybe they'll figure it out this time around, but their recent history inspires little hope, especially without Nikolaj Ehlers.
9. Los Angeles Kings +2000
The Kings blew it arguably worse than ever these playoffs in their scheduled first-round matchup with the Oilers, and now things feel even bleaker. Their offseason moves haven't inspired much hope, and there's little reason to think this team is going to come out of the first round, let alone contend for a Cup, at this point.
8. New Jersey Devils +1800
The Devils were in the Cup conversation at the start of last season for good reason after they made the necessary moves to take the next step forward, including acquiring Jacob Markstrom. The goaltender was the perfect addition to the team, but half of the defense and center Jack Hughes were all out way too long for that to matter. They still made the playoffs, but the Hurricanes dominated them for a first-round gentlemen's sweep. If healthy, New Jersey at +1800 to win the Cup is solid value.
The Real Contenders Tier
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7. Tampa Bay Lightning +1600
The Lightning gave the Panthers one of their toughest rounds in the playoffs, even while several key players like Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman were banged up. They proved they are still relevant in the playoff conversation, even if another Cup is a bit of a long shot.
6. Toronto Maple Leafs +1400
The Leafs are entering uncharted territory without Mitch Marner, and there are a few moving parts here, as they look to replace him and bolster their top six.
5. Dallas Stars +1000
Another team that's always in the mix, the Stars have their first full season with Mikko Rantanen on deck. These +1000 odds could end up a great value if the young stars on the team take their next steps, but we need to see if Dallas decides to trade Jason Robertson first.
4. Vegas Golden Knights +950
The Golden Knights won free agency by acquiring the only 100-plus point-scorer on the market and one of the best wingers in the league for the better half of the decade in Marner. They resolved a hole in the lineup on the wing, and it's no surprise to see them back in the Cup conversation.
3. Colorado Avalanche +900
The Avalanche are three seasons removed from their Cup and have managed to stay in the mix, but their tight cap situation meant letting go of Mikko Rantanen and a few other key players in the free-agency period. They've still got Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, though, so they're always going to be a threat.
2. Carolina Hurricanes +850 (tie)
If the oddsmakers love anything, it's a pattern. The Hurricanes have been right up there with the best when it comes to Cup odds for a few years, and part of it is that they are a great team that regularly makes it past the first round. But they are also consistent when it comes to underlying analytics, team structure and conference finals appearances, even if they have only won one ECF game since 2006. They made solid additions to the team this offseason in signing Nikolaj Ehlers and trading for K'Andre Miller, though, so maybe this is the year for real this time.
2. Edmonton Oilers +850 (tie)
Speaking of patterns: The Oilers, who have made it to two consecutive Cup Finals but have lost both to the Panthers, are tied with the Hurricanes with the second-best odds to win next year. They haven't done much in the offseason to improve the team—and they lost Corey Perry—so it's tough to imagine a third consecutive trip to the Final happening.
Still, they've got Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, they generate a ton of offense, and Zach Hyman will return healthy next year. A tie for second-best odds isn't ridiculous overvalue.
The Champions Tier
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1. Florida Panthers 600
Not only did the Panthers win their second straight Cup in their third straight Final appearance, but they're also running it back for the three-peat with the entire core in tact. Nothing's a sure bet in a league known for its parity, but this team has shown long playoff runs invigorate it instead of fatiguing it.
Florida has the potential to achieve dynasty status with another win, and somehow this group seems hungrier than ever to do so.
