San Francisco 49ers: An Early 2016 Mock Draft

Optimists look at the San Francisco 49ers’ upcoming 2015 season and see the potential for a bounce-back year and a return to the playoffs.  Pessimists look at the upcoming season and wonder who the team will take in the 2016 draft.

While it’s far too early to actually write off the 2015 season, there’s no harm in looking ahead to see what sort of players the 49ers might be interested in after the season is over.  They have nine draft picks already, thanks to trades with the San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys, and they could gain a few compensatory picks thanks to the losses of Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox and Dan Skuta.  That gives them the potential for a major draft haul next April.

They also have a lot of pending free agents, including Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Aldon Smith.  While they’re poised to have more cap space next season than they have in recent years, there still might be the need to find replacements in the draft for a wide variety of contributors—not to mention the looming specter of Colin Kaepernick’s contract, which becomes feasible to cut after the 2015 season.

The 2015 college football season starts on September 3, and obviously, the draft stocks of players will fluctuate rapidly between now and draft day as their on-field performance varies.  Think of this less as a guarantee of certain players in certain rounds and more of a thought experiment for how draft day might go for the team in terms of positions and needs.

The mock primarily concerns itself with seniors because there’s no telling who might come out early.  It also primarily focuses on players from major conferences, both because there’s more film on them and because it’s easier to track them through the upcoming season—it’s easier to find, say, Stanford on television than it is to find Samford.

Finally, this mock draft assumes the 49ers will finish with between seven and nine wins, like last year.  Obviously, if they do significantly better or worse, their needs will fluctuate greatly. A disaster of a season probably means they’re drafting a quarterback, for example, while a deep playoff run has them drafting for the future more than filling holes. 

With those caveats out of the way, here are the first predictions for the 49ers’ 2016 draft.

Round 1: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

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Treadwell not only would provide a replacement for Anquan Boldin (should he opt to retire) but also continue Trent Baalke’s trend of drafting players with nasty injuries—Treadwell had a nasty leg and ankle injury halfway through last season.

At 6’2” and 229 pounds, with strong hands and surprising quickness, Treadwell is an incredibly gifted athlete.  Think of a Dez Bryant-type who can both out-jump and outrun defenders, as well as fight through single coverage to make contested catches.  He had 72 receptions as a true freshman and 48 receptions for 632 yards in just nine games last season.

The broken tibia and dislocated ankle he suffered last season is pretty much the only thing that can hurt his draft stock at this point, but he’s already running routes and bouncing on trampolines.  Assuming there are no long-term effects from that injury, there’s little to stop Treadwell from being a top pick in the 2016 draft.

Paring Treadwell with Torrey Smith would give the 49ers a frightening receiving duo for the next three or four seasons—it would have the potential, at least, to be the best 49ers duo since Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens.

Round 2: Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

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Michael Wilhoite did a decent job of filling in for NaVorro Bowman last year, but he’s not someone a team should be satisfied with as a starter.  Couple that with the uncertainty surrounding Bowman’s recovery from his ACL and MCL tears suffered at the end of the 2013 season, and an interior linebacker should remain fairly high on the 49ers’ long-term wish list.

Reggie Ragland emerged last season for the Crimson Tide, replacing the departed C.J. Mosley.  A big, imposing figure inside at 6’2” and 254 pounds, Ragland is a force to be reckoned with in run defense.  He finished last season with 95 tackles, three passes broken up, an interception, a forced fumble and 1.5 sacks.  He’s a big reason why Alabama was the fourth-best run defense in the nation last season.

He doesn’t have the best range in the world, which is to be expected for a linebacker of his size, but he’s solid enough in the open field.  His bread and butter is in run defense, however, where he can close with a great first step and deliver a powerful blow to the ball-carrier.  He was only a two-down linebacker as a junior, so that’s something to watch and see if he develops, but Ragland would be a force on the inside.

Round 3: Dadi Nicolas, OLB, Virginia Tech

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Aldon Smith is a free agent in 2016.  If the 49ers don’t bring him back, they could use someone else in the rotation to replace him.  Eli Harold and Aaron Lynch both have promise and potential to develop into full-time starting linebackers, but potential is never a certainty.

Nicolas is a defensive end at the moment for Virginia Tech, but at just 6’4” and 231 pounds, he’ll probably have to bounce to the outside linebacker role in a 3-4 defense in the NFL.  He is still raw after only starting to play football as a senior in high school, but he’s already producing at a high level.  Nicolas had nine sacks last season (third in the ACC), as well as 18 tackles for a loss.  He has a good initial burst and long strides, which means he closes in on quarterbacks quickly once he gets going.

He still has fundamental issues to work on—his pad level is poor, which, coupled with his size, gives him low functional strength to fight off offensive tackles.  With another year of work in the ACC, however, Nicolas can correct some of those technique issues and become a dominant pass-rushing threat.

Round 4: Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State

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Vernon Davis’ contract expires at the end of the 2015 season.  The 49ers have used plenty of draft picks to try to find his replacement, including both Blake Bell and Busta Anderson in the 2015 draft.  If none of them pans out, however, the 49ers will have to go back to the well once more.

Nick Vannett has the desirable frame for an NFL tight end at 6’6” and 260 pounds, and he emerged as a red-zone threat last year.  Five of his 19 catches went for touchdowns, which is good for a player in a run-first offense who was behind NFL draft pick Jeff Heuerman on the depth chart.

Vannett is also a willing blocker, though at this point he’s probably a little more willing than skilled.  With Heuerman gone, Vannett’s snap count should increase dramatically, and he could play a major role as a safety valve for whoever Ohio State decides will start at quarterback this season.

Round 4 Compensatory: Christian Westerman, OL, Arizona State

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Over the Cap projects the 49ers to have fourth-, fifth-  and sixth-round compensatory selection in 2016.  While that’s not official, their projections have been fairly solid, so for the sake of argument, I’m going to use those numbers 

This compensatory selection would be for the loss of Chris Culliver or Mike Iupati—one of the two is balanced by the addition of Torrey Smith, but the other should give the 49ers an early compensatory selection.

Alex Boone’s contract expires at the end of the 2015 season, and considering his history with holdouts, he seems to be the least likely pending 49ers free agent to return.  Couple that with the loss of Mike Iupati this offseason, and the 49ers’ guard cupboard is looking a little bare.  Brandon Thomas will get his chance to start after missing the 2014 season with injuries, and Marcus Martin or Daniel Kilgore could fill the other position in a pinch, but there’s still room to add talent here.

Westerman is an offensive tackle listed alternatively as a guard or tackle depending on where you look, with Lance Zierlein saying that he could be moved to center in the NFL.  That’s some versatility, at the very least.  Westerman was the starting left guard for ASU in 2014 after transferring from Auburn, and his run-blocking prowess and physicality are enough to make him an intriguing prospect.

Westerman is strong, with Fox Sports calling him arguably the strongest man in college football and showing him benching 315 pounds as if it were nothing.  His bio on ASU’s page says he can bench over 500 pounds.  That kind of strength will find him a home somewhere in the NFL, likely on the inside.

Round 5: Wayne Lyons, CB, Michigan

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The 49ers have plenty of prospects at the cornerback position but very few certainties.  It seems likely that at least one of Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker, the three late-round cornerbacks taken in 2014, will take a step forward this season, but it’s a position filled with potential rather than past performance.  Add in Shareece Wright and Chris Cook’s expiring contracts, and it’s a position the 49ers could add to late in 2016.

Wayne Lyons was recruited by Jim Harbaugh at Stanford just before Harbaugh left to coach the 49ers.  Now that Harbaugh is back in college, he will actually get a chance to work with Lyons, who transferred to Michigan as a post-graduate student.  

Lyons was held without an interception last season but was a physical force in press coverage.  He totaled 128 tackles at Stanford, using a good burst to help set the edge against the run.  With a little more work in open space, he could become an impact player—though his lack of fantastic interception totals might mean he’d work better as a safety in the NFL.

Round 5 from San Diego: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford

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For the purposes of this draft, we’re assuming Colin Kaepernick bounces back somewhat from a poor season in 2014.  If he does not, the 49ers will have a higher draft pick and take a quarterback early, likely in the first round.

If, however, Kaepernick rebounds at least slightly, the 49ers would be better served looking for a player to develop into a better backup option than Blaine Gabbert behind him.  The fifth-round pick from San Diego, which the 49ers added as part of the trade to draft Arik Armstead, might be the ideal time to do that.

Stanford’s Kevin Hogan has a strong arm and the toughness needed to extend plays.  Taking over for Andrew Luck, Hogan helped lead the team to consecutive Rose Bowl berths in his first two seasons as the starter.

However, an up-and-down 2014 puts his NFL future in question.  Hogan was inconsistent, looking some games like an NFL-caliber player and other games like he was lost in the backfield.  His mechanics need some heavy retooling, as his windup is long.  He doesn’t respond well when pressured, either, which leads to interceptions.

His arm strength and pre-snap reads are definitely major pluses, however.  A rebound season at Stanford could put him back in the mix as a long-term backup and emergency starter on the NFL level.

Round 5 Compensatory: Johnathan Gray, RB, Texas

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Both Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter will be free agents in 2016.  While the 49ers drafted Mike Davis in the fourth round this year to back up Carlos Hyde for the long term, they may need another talent in the backfield going forward.  There’s no reason to use a high draft pick on one, thanks to using a second- and fourth-round pick the last two years, but a Day 3 running back for depth purposes could help, courtesy of the compensatory selection received for the loss of Perrish Cox.

Johnathan Gray seemed poised for a breakout season in 2013, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry and racking up 780 yards in nine games before an Achilles tear ended his season abruptly.  He wasn’t quite the same player last season, as his ability to cut and turn on a dime suffered as he recovered his game speed from the injury.

Gray has split carries throughout his career, never topping more than 159 rushing attempts.  He takes over as the feature back now, though, with Malcolm Brown out of the picture.  With his injury now two years in the past, the rust and hesitance that plagued him last year should be things of the past.  A strong senior season should put Gray into draftable territory.

Round 6: Geno Smith, S, Alabama

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Craig Dahl will be a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, and while this year’s second-round pick Jaquiski Tartt is the likely long-term replacement there, extra help in the secondary is never a bad thing to have.  Considering Eric Reid’s concussion issues and Antoine Bethea’s age (30), a late-round safety could make sense.

This is not that Geno Smith but rather the strong safety from Alabama.  He is expected to move into the starting lineup thanks to the departures of Landon Collins and Nick Perry.  In 2014, he finished fifth on Alabama with 54 tackles, and he has experience at cornerback as well.  He’s received more and more work as his college career has gone on, and he is still developing his all-around game.  However, his March arrest for DUI might frighten teams off, as it was his second such arrest in his college career.

Round 6 from Dallas: Vincent Valentine, DT, Nebraska

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The 49ers received this draft pick thanks to trading away one of their seventh-round picks at the end of the 2015 draft.

Ian Williams’ contract expires at the end of the 2015 season, though there’s every reason to believe the team will bring him back on a reasonable deal.  However, with a former defensive line coach now running the show, Jim Tomsula might use his influence to add more bodies to the defensive line regardless of contract situations.

This is not that Vincent Valentine but rather the defensive tackle from Nebraska.  At 6’3”, 320 pounds, he has the frame to be a nose tackle on the NFL level.  If he can improve his stamina, he has a future as a run-stuffing force up the middle. 

Last season, he had 45 tackles and three sacks while anchoring Nebraska’s defense.  He’s definitely more of an upside player rather than an immediate contributor, but Valentine has the physical tools that pro coaches are looking to develop at the next level.

Round 6 Compensatory: Deatrich Wise, DE, Arkansas

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This final compensatory selection would be for the loss of Dan Skuta, who now plies his trade in Jacksonville.

With both Justin Smith and Ray McDonald leaving the team this offseason, the 49ers could use some more bodies on the defensive line.  To that end, they used their first-round pick on Arik Armstead and brought in veteran Darnell Dockett. 

Dockett might not be around in 2015—his contract has no guaranteed money on it, and Tony Jerod-Eddie is a restricted free agent as well.  Honestly, however, this pick is more about giving a defensive line coach a defensive lineman more than anything else.

Deatrich Wise stands at 6’6” and 271 pounds, and he put up 13 tackles and two sacks last season at Arkansas.  Wise has plenty of potential—in last year’s Red and White Game, Wise put up five sacks against the starters—though that obviously needs to translate onto the field at some point for him to be draftable.  Now with a starting role after the departures of Trey Flowers and Darius Philon, Wise could break out in 2015.

Round 7: Marshall Morgan, K, Georgia

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Generally, I advocate never drafting a specialist, as plenty of quality players are available as undrafted free agents.  With 12 possible picks in the draft, however, San Francisco can break that rule. 

In addition, this is Phil Dawson’s last year under contract.  At 40 years old, he’s unlikely to be around for too much longer no matter what, and his $4.1 million cap number is really high for a kicker.

In three years at Georgia, Morgan is 46-of-59 on field goals and 177-of-182 on extra points.  His 22-of-24 season in 2013 was quite impressive and led the SEC, though he wasn’t quite as good last year.  He made field goals of 55 and 56 yards in 2013 and nailed his only 50-plus yard try last season.  He’s 5-of-8 all-time from beyond 50 yards and 8-of-12 since his rookie season from 40-45 yards.  He’s a decent kickoff man as well, with 31 touchbacks last season.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.