Vladislav Gavrikov Signing a Solid Start for Rangers' Offseason, But More Must Be Done

The New York Rangers have signed 29-year-old defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to a seven-year contract with a $7 million annual cap hit. The top defenseman available is off the board and heading to Broadway.

The Rangers are coming off a historically awful season with more issues than internet bandwidth would allow. But if there is any area that the organization appeared anxious to change, it was the makeup of its defensive group. Specifically, the team was looking for a left-handed defenseman to top the depth chart after last season's trading of Ryan Lindgren and Tuesday's expected trade of restricted free agent K'Andre Miller.

What type of player is Gavrikov? How does he fit the Rangers' needs, and is he worth the massive paycheck the team just handed him? Let's dive in.

What Gavrikov Brings to the Rangers

The Rangers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL the last few seasons, with the dam completely breaking last year. Three areas of the game are particularly to blame. First, they've conceded way too many rush chances. Second, they couldn't move the puck out of their own zone. Third, they struggled to protect the home plate area around the net.

Gavrikov is an asset against the rush. The 6'3" defenseman uses a long reach and smart angling to take away lanes of entry against carries, and he's punctual when stepping up to intercept passes.

With his range, he's able to seal the walls but also flood the middle lane just as well. He's going to prevent zone entries altogether and, if they happen, they're usually ones that force the opposition to chip-and-chase.

Assuming Gavrikov is paired with Adam Fox, the idea will be to force dump-ins for Fox, an elite puck-mover, to then collect.

Because of Gavrikov's neutral zone capabilities, teams try to stay away from attacking his side of the ice. Is the solution then to force dump-ins to Gavrikov's side of the ice?

That's the route most teams chose against LA last season, but Gavrikov covers there as well. Though he's not necessarily known for his skating abilities, the Russian defenseman ranks above average by all NHL skating metrics over the last few seasons. He's fast enough to keep up in a race and then use his size to gain inside positioning on the first forechecker.

Gavrikov is not a puck-moving defenseman. He's not going to start many breakouts by beating forecheckers in possession nor is he going to stretch the ice very often. He does show enough puck poise to find outlets hanging low in the defensive zone.

It's easy to see the tactical vision the Rangers have with a Gavrikov-Fox pairing as each player plays into the other's strengths. Fox is a sublime puck mover who needs a partner who can put him in more positions to make plays with the puck and less time defending in his zone.

Gavrikov is a great neutral zone defender, and his aggressive play will create turnovers that set up transition chances for the Rangers, yet that aggressive play is not compromised because of his skating and route-taking that lets him win puck retrievals and flip the puck to players who are better with the puck.

As for protecting the home plate area, Gavrikov also excels here. He was a matchup defenseman in L.A., meaning that his coaching staff deployed him against some of the best players in the league for defensive zone situations. He’s 220 pounds and does not get wrong-footed easily. He’s a powerful player who prevents even the best players from taking pucks from the walls and into middle ice. As they try to penetrate, Gavrikov instead guides them into their demise.

Take these two examples from last season as proof against two great players in John Tavares and Jesper Bratt.

An Upgrade on Miller?

The Rangers are effectively swapping K’Andre Miller out for Gavrikov. For sure, Gavrikov is better suited to deal with many of the Rangers’ urgent problems, but it’s not an upgrade across the board.

The Rangers are a slow team, and Miller is one of the best skating defensemen in the NHL. Gavrikov is also a substantial downgrade offensively. His career highs in points are five goals and 33 points. Fox aside, the Rangers have very little offense to speak of out of their blue line. This isn’t only about point production but also creating zone entries and joining the rush.

I still think Gavrikov is a better fit for the Rangers’ needs. The Rangers’ roster deficiencies are vast and so there’s no way to fix all of them with one player.

The Contract

By signing a seven-year, $49 million contract, the Rangers overpay Gavrikov by a modest amount. At least, as a purely mathematical assessment. Per the modeling done by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, Gavrikov projects to be worth roughly $6.4 million per season over a seven-year contract, with his value falling to $5.3 million by Year Seven.

Not all overpayments are equal. If you’re in the Sahara Desert and someone is offering you a bottle of water for $10, you’re going to pay it even if it’s only worth $1. You have a major need, you have nowhere else to source water, and the consequences of not buying the water are dire.

The Rangers badly need a top-pairing defenseman, and Gavrikov is a passable No. 2. More specifically, they need one with Gavrikov’s skill set as a play-killing left-handed defenseman. Had the Rangers passed on Gavrikov, there would not have been many alternatives. And it’s not as if other players represent frugality. The contract Ivan Provorov signed in Columbus is egregious and many other defensemen available who are far worse than Gavrikov will also get contracts above their contributions.

This is not like Barclay Goodrow, where the Rangers grossly overpaid a player who is more or less interchangeable with 15 other similar players available at any given time. It is hard to replicate what Gavrikov brings to a hockey team, and if they had to overpay by $500K to $1 million to make it happen then so be it. It’s not difficult to make back that value with a smart signing or two down the lineup.

It is fair to worry about the Rangers, an aging team with contracts that handcuff them long-term, signing the 29-year-old Gavrikov for a deal that takes him to his late 30s. To GM Chris Drury’s credit, he convinced Gavrikov to sign a deal that provides the Rangers with a few escape hatches. Gavrikov can only block trades with 20 teams in Year 6 and 15 in Year 7. Plus, limited signing bonus money toward the end of the deal makes a buyout manageable if necessary.

The Big Picture

The Rangers are not signing Chris Pronger here. Gavrikov does not single-handedly change the state of the franchise. They still have several problems to fix with limited cap space, and the switch from Miller to Gavrikov doesn’t make them any younger. 

Gavrikov is the best left defenseman the Rangers have had since they traded Ryan McDonagh in 2018. He gives Fox a legitimate partner who can keep up with him and allow him to focus on his strengths. In the context of the current landscape, Gavrikov’s contract is within the bounds of reasonable and, to the extent he does not live up to it, it won’t undo the fact that he is a very good defenseman.

The Rangers are one big step closer to giving Igor Shesterkin some defensive help and specifically defending against the rush.