Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Bold Predictions for 2025 NBA Finals Game 7
With their backs against the wall in Thursday's elimination game, the Indiana Pacers forced a Game 7 of this NBA Finals by smashing the Oklahoma City Thunder, 108-91.
And it wasn't as close as the final score suggests.
Led by 20 off the bench from Obi Toppin, the Pacers had five other players in double-figures, including Tyrese Haliburton, who played through a calf strain.
The balanced scoring and ferocious defense helped Indiana jump out to a 22-point lead through the first half. It stretched to 30 just after the start of the fourth quarter and before extended garbage time kicked in.
Now, the Pacers will hope to ride the momentum they created on Thursday into a Game 7 in Oklahoma City.
Can they upset the record-breaking juggernaut on their home floor? Or will the Thunder cap off one of the greatest single seasons in NBA history?
We have the bold predictions to set the stage below.
Tyrese Haliburton Will Notch a Double-Double
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In the regular season, Tyrese Haliburton had 31 points-and-assists double-doubles. Prior to the Finals, he'd had nine in 16 appearances.
But in this series against OKC, he's averaging 14.8 points and 6.8 assists. He had four points on six shots in Game 5. And he's playing through a calf strain that would likely keep him off the floor if this was the regular season.
But throughout this postseason, Haliburton has had a knack for rising to the biggest occasions. His 13 field goals to tie or take the lead in fourth quarters or overtimes leads the playoffs. He drilled a game-winner in the opener of this series.
And because Indiana essentially ended Game 6 by halftime, he was able to get out of that contest with just 23 total minutes played.
That's huge for a player dealing with the injury Haliburton has. And that little bit of extra rest, combined with the gravity of Game 7, will be enough to spur Haliburton back to the kind of production that was typical before facing this OKC defense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Will Bounce Back with 35-Plus
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This may not fit the "bold" description in the title of the slideshow all that well, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to bounce back from the off night he just had on Thursday.
Thanks to Indiana's swarming team defense and the individual pressure provided by Andrew Nembhard (and occasionally Aaron Nesmith), SGA had 21 points and eight turnovers in Game 6.
In the regular season, he failed to reach 22 points just three times. Three.
And in the games that followed those off nights, he averaged 31.7. The chances of the Pacers holding him down two games in a row are slim.
And, like Haliburton, Gilgeous-Alexander will feel the weight of Game 7's opportunity. That will push him to bounce back even more dramatically than he did in those regular-season contests.
He's going to be aggressively looking for his own shot all night. He's going to draw several trips to the free-throw line. And he's going to fly past 30 points for the game.
Indiana Will Have Seven Players in Double-Figures
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All postseason, depth has been perhaps the biggest strength of this odds-defying Pacers squad.
They have six players averaging double-figures in the playoffs, while Obi Toppin (9.8) and T.J. McConnell (9.2) aren't far from joining that group.
They've had seven different players get to 20 during a game in this run. And after Toppin hit that mark on Thursday, each of those seven has done it at least twice.
Defenses not knowing where the scoring is going to come from is part of what makes the Pacers so difficult to defend. And the ball- and player-movement heavy attack is going to be locked in for Sunday's Game 7.
And because of that, at least seven Pacers will score 10-plus points.
The starters—Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Pascal Siakam (Indiana's leading scorer in the postseason) and Myles Turner—are obvious candidates, and at least two of Toppin, McConnell or Bennedict Mathurin will join them in double-figures.
OKC Will Shoot Better at Home
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You can file this as another prediction that is perhaps not so bold, but it's hard to imagine OKC shooting as poorly as it did in Game 6 again.
The Thunder went 8-of-30 from three on Thursday, dropping their road three-point percentage in the Finals to 30.9. The big three of SGA, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren alone is 3-of-27 from deep in Indiana.
Whether it's nerves, the intensity of the Pacers crowd, Indiana's defense, plain bad luck or some combination of all four factors, OKC simply weren't able to connect at a high enough rate at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
But they've been dramatically better at home, making 39.8 percent of their triples in Oklahoma City.
Even if the Pacers are able to apply a similar level of pressure in Game 7, the mere comfort of being in their own arena will help the Thunder make more of their long-range attempts.
But the Pacers Will Do the (Seemingly) Impossible
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Frankly, predicting an OKC victory in Game 7 just isn't bold (the Thunder are minus-8.5-point favorites to win).
And since we stretched that qualifier a bit in a couple of the predictions above, we're going to go further out on a limb here.
The Pacers are going to win their first NBA championship on Sunday, thanks to the aforementioned playmaking of Haliburton, Indiana's balanced scoring and another big night from Siakam.
Indiana's versatile forward was held relatively in check on Thursday, when he had 16 points on 14 shots, but he'd averaged 23.0 in the three previous games. And for much of this series, he's looked like the only real "matchup problem" for OKC.
As the classic tweener, Siakam has looked just a bit too stout for Holmgren and too quick off the bounce for Isaiah Hartenstein.
He also has the championship experience the rest of his team lacks from his run to the title with the Toronto Raptors in 2019.
Siakam's versatility and the fact that he knows what it takes to win it all will push Indiana over the top and help him secure Finals MVP.
