Predicting When Each Rookie NFL Quarterback Will Make His First Start in 2025

In 16 of the last 17 NFL seasons, at least one rookie quarterback has started in Week 1. The lone exception was the 2022 campaign, although nine different rookies eventually started games that season, including Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy.

In 2025, it's safe to say we'll see some rookie quarterback action, especially in Tennessee. Beyond that, though, it’s tough to get a bead on. 

When should you expect to see each rookie make his first start? After the NFL released every team's schedule Wednesday, we've come up with some educated guesses on each of the 13 signal-callers who were drafted last month.

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/George Walker IV

As the top pick of the draft, Ward is going to be given a lot of opportunities to establish himself as the No. 1 guy in Tennessee and will start early regardless. It’s just a matter of time, but Will Levis does remain on the roster and nothing has been confirmed yet. 

Considering that the Titans aren’t in a huge rush, and that Ward could still use some polish coming out of Miami, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the team were to hit the pause button this summer. 

The Titans start the season with a tough road matchup against a strong Denver Broncos defense. It wouldn’t be outlandish for them to start Levis there just to bring Ward along comfortably. Ward might be much better off kicking off his career at home against the Rams or Colts later in December. 

That said, I’d still bet the team caves and makes the move before Week 1.

Predicted first start: Week 1 at Broncos

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah

Both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston are new to the Giants roster, and—at a minimum—Wilson will likely get plenty of regular-season work before the G-Men hand the reins to a rookie who needs to develop his mechanics and processing abilities. 

In fact, I believe in Wilson, who could be energized by a new environment with a young superstar wide receiver in Malik Nabers. 

That said, I don’t think the Giants have the overall talent to stick around deep into the season, and they’d be foolish not to give their first-round pick some serious work once the ship has sailed on competing in 2025. 

My first start window for him starts Dec. 1 in New England, but I get the feeling the Giants hold out until the holidays. 

Predicted first start: Week 17 at Raiders

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

With Derek Carr now officially gone, Shough has become the odds-on favorite to start for the Saints in Week 1. The second-round pick out of Louisville isn’t guaranteed that spot, though, as the Saints have two other decent options in Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. 

Considering that Shough also has plenty of room to develop, this could go either way. And of course, the team could still opt to bring in a veteran to bridge the gap. 

It’s slim pickings right now, however, and Rattler and Haener did not inspire much confidence in 2024 action. 

Throw in that the Saints open up with a manageable home game against Arizona and I’m thinking they go with 25-year-old rook right off the bat.

Predicted first start: Week 1 vs. Cardinals

Jalen Milroe, Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Seattle is giving handsome bucks to new starter Sam Darnold, and there’s little reason to believe this team won’t be competitive throughout 2024. On top of that, veteran Drew Lock is there in case of an emergency related to Darnold. 

I do expect the Seahawks to find creative ways to utilize the explosive Milroe in 2025, but it’s extremely unlikely he goes near the QB1 spot barring some major injuries elsewhere on Seattle’s QB depth chart in 2025. 

Predicted first start: 2026, or later

Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

The Browns famously used a third-round pick on Gabriel before drafting the widely advertised Sanders in Round 5, despite the fact Joey Flacco, Kenny Pickett and Deshaun Watson were already on the roster. 

Sanders actually has much better odds of starting games in 2025 than Gabriel does, which is odd considering their draft locations but not surprising based on the hype surrounding Sanders. If the franchise is going to go to either early, it’ll be an act of desperation. And if you’re desperate, might as well roll with one of the biggest names of this year’s rookie class first. 

I get the feeling this’ll be another messy, chaotic season for the Browns, who may not have Watson all year but wouldn’t necessarily play him anyway. It’s hard to imagine the 40-year-old Flacco holding on all season, and there’s little reason to believe Pickett would get more than a single chance to prove he’s turned his career around. 

My guess? Flacco is out by the end of September, Pickett gets fried by the Vikings and Steelers in October, and the struggling Browns go to Sanders for a mid-October home matchup with Miami. 

Even that should be a roller-coaster ride, and I’ll bet a team that is long out of it goes out of its way to get a look at Gabriel before the campaign comes to an end. 

Predicted first start for Gabriel: Week 14 vs. Titans

Predicted first start for Sanders: Week 7 vs. Dolphins

Will Howard, Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Howard gets his own blurb despite being a sixth-round pick because so much is still up in the air with the Steelers, who still haven’t signed Aaron Rodgers despite signs still pointing to that development. 

If by chance that doesn’t come to fruition, or by chance Rodgers can’t hold up, I think Howard could easily get a shot before the 2025 season expires. 

It’s pretty clear the 29-year-old Rudolph isn’t the future. If the Steelers simply need to tread water for a short span and they remain in contention, he’ll likely be the first guy up. But there’s also a chance he fails, or the team is out of contention and wants to get a feel for Howard before plotting its approach for the 2026 offseason.

A lot has to break Howard’s way, but my gut tells me he gets on the field as a starter at some point late in ‘25. 

Predicted first start: Week 17 at Browns

The Long-Shot Club

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Kyle McCord, Philadelphia Eagles: Even if something were to happen to Jalen Hurts, the contender Eagles would likely bring someone else up. 

Riley Leonard, Indianapolis Colts: Not going to happen with both Anthony Richardson and Daniels Jones lined up for auditions. 

Graham Mertz, Houston Texans: Davis Mills is C.J. Stroud’s backup, and the Texans should be competitive. We won’t likely see the Florida product in 2025.

Cam Miller, Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O'Connell is Geno Smith’s backup, so don’t count on much here. 

Kurtis Rourke, San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones is there to pick up Brock Purdy in an emergency situation, and the 49ers should be in it all year. 

Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins: You never know with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, but they do also have Zach Wilson.