Overachievers or Legit Contenders? Breaking Down MLB’s Biggest Surprises
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are off to great starts in 2025. Go figure.
But one of the most fun things about the early part of the baseball season is figuring out which players and teams outperforming preseason expectations have staying power.
To that end, here's a look at some individuals and clubs off to unexpectedly great starts and whether they are overachieving or are going to be able to sustain a hot start.
Detroit Tigers: Legit contenders
1 of 7
The way that the Tigers not only got into the playoffs, but also upset the Houston Astros in the ALWCS last year probably wasn't sustainable. But there are early signs that this iteration of the Tigers aren't going to need an other-worldly finish to get into the playoffs.
Tarik Skubal is off to a dominant start once again, as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has a 2.08 ERA across his first eight starts.
It doesn't stop there, though, as the Tigers have one of baseball's best starting rotations when you also factor in Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson. This is the type of rotation that could carry the Tigers on a deep postseason run, especially of rookie Jackson Jobe starts to hit his stride.
For as much as we can say about Spencer Torkelson's resurgence, Javier Báez reviving his career as a super-utility man after three consecutive down seasons to open his tenure with the Tigers is one of the most improbable stories in baseball so far.
The Tigers feel like a team that could emerge out of a wide-open American League this fall, particularly if they hit on one or two key additions in the summer.
Athletics: Overachievers
2 of 7
We're not here to completely rain on the parade of A's fans in Philadelphia, Kansas City, Oakland, Sacramento and Las Vegas. This is a franchise unquestionably headed in the right direction on the field, even if they still aren't entirely certain what their long-term home will be.
But the Athletics have a minus-32 run differential, so while they are above .500 for the time being, that's usually not an indicator of a team with staying power.
Even without Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday having played at their best yet, this is still an offense that has scored plenty of runs, thanks in large part to a pair of 23-year-olds—Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson—who look like long-term cogs.
The problem for the A's is that even with offseason signee Luis Severino and JP Sears pitching well, this is still a team that ranks 24th in ERA. There probably isn't one club in the AL West that's going to win 95 games, but it's going to be hard for the A's to get to even 88-90 wins with how their pitching has fared to this point.
Again, this is a team headed in the right direction, particularly with a lineup that looks like it could be special in a year or two. But as far as the postseason in 2025, that still feels unlikely.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Legit
3 of 7
The Chicago Cubs acquired Pete Crow-Armstrong from the New York Mets prior to the 2021 trade deadline for a few months of Báez. That may go down as one of the most lopsided trades in modern MLB history.
Crow-Armstrong isn't going to be an on-base machine, but he already has nine home runs and is a base-stealing threat when he does get on.
PCA's best value, though, remains his tremendous work in center field. Crow-Armstrong already has nine defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, He's not only the early favorite for a Gold Glove Award in center field, but also the Platinum Glove Award as the National League's best overall defender.
The other thing about Crow-Armstrong is that there's just a spark he provides for a team with his energy. The 23-year-old figures to be one of the faces of the Cubs for a long time to come.
Geraldo Perdomo: Overachiever
4 of 7
Geraldo Perdomo has always been an excellent defensive shortstop, and that's continued this season as he has three defensive runs and six outs above average in the early going.
Where Perdomo has really made hay early on is at the plate, as he's hitting .299 with an .873 OPS and 30 RBI. Mind you, he entered the season as a career .235 hitter with a .673 OPS. The most runs he's ever driven in previously in a season is the 47 from 2023.
Given that he's only 25 years old, it's entirely possible that Perdomo has taken a step forward offensively. But it's fair to be skeptical if his jump will be as drastic as it's been to this point.
Again, this isn't a dis of Perdomo, who's an elite defender and seems to have a great vibe around him. But according to FanGraphs, he's currently tied for third among all position players in WAR. That doesn't seem likely to hold up.
Hunter Brown: Legit
5 of 7
Justin Verlander departed in free agency last winter, while Framber Valdez could follow suit in the offseason. The Astros desperately needed another front-line arm to emerge, and Brown has done just that so far in 2025.
Over his first eight starts of the season, Brown is 6-1 with a 1.48 ERA. He currently leads all pitchers in FIP (1.85), HR/9 (0.2) and WAR (2.1), per FanGraphs.
Brown isn't exactly coming out of nowhere, considering he took a major step forward a year ago when he logged 170 innings and posted a 3.49 ERA. Still, no one saw him pitching at a Cy Young-level, which is what he's done to this point.
With a repotoire that includes a 97 mph fastball, 96 mph sinker, a knuckle curve, change-up, slider and cutter, we're inclined to think that the 26-year-old's hot start is for real.
Daniel Lynch IV: Overachiever
6 of 7
The Kansas City Royals currently have a top-five bullpen ERA, and that's not simply because veterans Lucas Erceg and Carlos Estévez are pitching well.
Daniel Lynch IV has been a tremendous left-handed option out of manager Matt Quatraro's bullpen, as he's posted a minuscule 0.96 ERA across his first 15 outings of the season.
With that said, he currently has a 3.50 expected ERA and 3.97 FIP. Those are two metrics that are pretty good at predicting future performance, and the guess here is that Lynch will see some regression in the not-so-distant future.
San Francisco Giants: Overachievers
7 of 7
Even with the Colorado Rockies playing as poorly as anyone in baseball, the NL West is probably baseball's best division because the four other teams are all playoff-caliber.
Obviously, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the defending World Series champions, while the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres were popular postseason picks before the season. The Giants currently find themselves fighting for the top spot in the division with the Dodgers and Padres, which is not something many saw coming before the season.
Much of San Francisco's bullpen has been dominant so far in 2025, and Jung Hoo Lee looks like an All-Star candidate in his second MLB season. But outside of Lee, there's not a ton to be excited about in the lineup.
The most troubling development is that in the first year of Willy Adames' seven-year, $182 million deal, the shortstop's OPS is currently under .675. President of baseball operations Buster Posey also bet that Adames could bounce back from a disappointing final season in the field with the Milwaukee Brewers, and so far he's lost that bet. Adames has minus-6 defensive runs saved and minus-5 outs above average at shortstop this season.
Former AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray has a 2.84 ERA so far this season, but his 4.06 FIP suggests that's not sustainable. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander looks like a 42-year-old with a 4.50 ERA.
When you factor in that there are three other teams in this division capable of competing for the World Series, it just seems like the Giants are destined to have trouble keeping up with the pack.
