MLB Execs Vote Marlins' Sandy Alcantara as Most Likely Trade Target at 2025 Deadline

Sandy Alcántara's struggles to start the 2025 season aren't stopping MLB executives from believing the Miami Marlins will deal the former NL Cy Young winner by the trade deadline.

MLB.com's Mark Feinsand asked executives to name the most likely player to be dealt by July 31. Alcántara received the most votes of any player in the league.

The Marlins right-hander received 12 votes, more than double the second-place finisher (Chicago White Sox centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. with five).

The Marlins typically don't like to spend a ton of money, and Alcántara is the only player on their roster currently with a 2025 salary over $4.5 million. He's earning $17.3 million this season.

Alcántara's trade value will be fascinating if the Marlins do shop him this summer. The 29-year-old is signed through next year, and he has a $21 million team option for 2027.

A pitcher at Alcántara's age and track record would seem like a hot commodity. However, recent history is not particularly kind to him. He missed the entire 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Alcántara has been healthy to start this season, but his performance has been rough. He is the worst pitcher in the NL by FanGraphs' wins above replacement with at least 30 innings pitched (-0.3) thanks to an 8.42 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, six homers allowed, 23 strikeouts and 18 innings in 31.0 innings.

If you want to look for encouraging signs, Alcántara's average fastball velocity of 97.2 mph ranks in the 91st percentile across MLB, and his ground-ball percentage of 49.5 ranks in the 77th percentile.

Those aren't that far off from Alcántara's most recent healthy season in 2023. The concerns are his average exit velocity, chase rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate all rank between the 12th and 16th percentile.

One AL executive told Feinsand that getting Alcántara further removed from the elbow surgery should help boost his performance.

"The longer he is removed from the injury, the better he will likely be," the executive said. "At the deadline, he could demand a pretty price with up to two-and-a-half years of control remaining on his contract."

If the Marlins can get a good haul for Alcántara, it would be a big help to their farm system that entered this season ranked in the bottom half of MLB. That's a rough spot to be in for a team that has lost at least 90 games in five of the past seven years.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see a team with a proven track record of developing young pitchers and helping to rehab the careers of struggling veterans take a shot on Alcántara because the upside is so high if he returns to form.

Alcántara won the 2022 NL Cy Young award with a 2.28 ERA and six complete games in 228.2 innings. He is the only pitcher to throw at least 220 innings in a season since 2020.