Contract Extension Predictions for 2025 NBA Rookie-Scale Players
This summer, major news will break for a select few from the 2022 NBA draft class. After their third season, first-round picks become extension-eligible from July 1 to the day before the start of the regular season.
Some will agree to massive deals at the first possible moment, while others may take all summer before signing extensions right at the deadline. Those who don't reach agreements will become restricted free agents in the summer of 2026.
Which 2022 first-round picks will get paid this offseason, and how much? Based on precedent, performance and situation, we've made our best guesses for 2025 rookie-scale extensions.
Negotiating Guidelines
1 of 24
NBA teams and players' agents usually comb through the last few years of rookie-scale extensions to generate a list of comparable contracts. A player might expect an equivalent deal if they're similar in production/talent.
Length of contract can also be a factor. A rookie-scale extension can add up to five seasons, but many around the league were surprised this past offseason when the Houston Rockets gave Jalen Green a hefty three-year deal with a third-year player option.
In the 2024 offseason, rookie-scale extensions were in the following few tiers:
These are the ranges to consider when looking at the list of potential rookie-scale extensions this offseason.
Technically, the fourth year of the players' rookie-scale deal counts as part of the extension. Barnes added five additional seasons, which is a six-year extension. We'll use the casual version (five-year extension) for brevity.
While few teams project to have cap room in 2025 (which may have impacted last year's extensions), a long list of teams could have room to chase restricted free agents in 2026. That may push teams to be more generous than they'd like, though last year's crop didn't hold back.
No. 30 Pick: Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
2 of 24
The Nuggets have yielded to financial pressure in consecutive offseasons since winning the NBA title in 2022-23. While their bench has gotten thinner each year, they still managed to survive a seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers this season to advance to the Western Conference semifinals.
Peyton Watson played in all seven games against the Clippers, but he averaged only 4.4 points and 2.6 rebounds in 13.6 minutes per game. He's solid and productive in spurts, but not yet consistent.
Denver may have limited means to add to its roster this offseason, but Watson hasn't stepped into his role enough yet. Given the economic hurdles that the Nuggets are facing, they may wait to sign him to an extension.
Current averages (68 games, 18 starts): 24.4 minutes, 8.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 35.3 percent from three
Closest comp: Zeke Nnaji (four years, $32 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 27 Pick: Nikola Jović, Miami Heat
3 of 24
The Heat changed direction midseason by trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors. They still managed to fight their way into the playoffs via the play-in tournament, but they hit a brick wall against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a first-round sweep.
Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and others forged Miami's prior postseason identity. With that now in flux, should the Heat commit long-term to players like Nikola Jović? The answer may come down to his asking price.
Jović could wait to test his market as a restricted free agent in 2026, but it might be difficult for him to turn down a significant long-term deal. Miami could decide to wait, but an offer not too far below the non-taxpayer mid-level exception might make sense for both sides.
Current averages (46 games, 10 starts): 25.1 minutes, 10.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 37.1 percent from three
Closest comp: Moses Moody (three years, $37.5 million)
Expectation: Around $30 million over three years, third-year team option
No. 25 Pick: Blake Wesley, San Antonio Spurs
4 of 24
Blake Wesley hasn't done enough to distinguish himself on the Spurs, who have added guards De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle since drafting him. They're now pushing toward a sustainable contending run built around star Victor Wembanyama.
With that in mind, the Spurs must diligently allocate their money (and flexibility), which reduces the likelihood of Wesley signing an extension this offseason.
Current averages (58 games, zero starts): 11.8 minutes, 3.7 points, 2.0 assists, 29.3 percent from three
Closest comp: Zeke Nnaji (four years, $32 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 22 Pick: Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
5 of 24
The Jazz reportedly explored the market for Walker Kessler in the past, but he seemingly played himself into a longer future with the franchise as the season went on. Utah is rebuilding and may need to decide if Lauri Markkanen makes sense at his price and age (nearly 28) given how far the team has to go.
Kessler is more of a traditional big with marginal scoring ability but strong rebounding and shot-blocking. He might compare to Isaiah Stewart II, who signed a four-year, $60-64 million deal with the Detroit Pistons in 2023 (including a team option on the final season).
The Jazz can afford to wait on an extension, but getting Kessler on a good number now would be better than needing to pay more later should he continue to grow.
Current averages (58 games, 58 starts): 30.0 minutes, 11.1 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.4 blocks
Closest comp: Stewart (four years, $60 million)
Expectation: $66 million over three years
No. 21 Pick: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
6 of 24
Christian Braun played a small role in the Nuggets' championship run as a rookie. His ensuing growth into a full-time starter mitigated the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency this past offseason. He's become one of the team's most reliable perimeter defenders and outside shooters.
The Nuggets' challenge is their heavy investment in Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. If those four stay in Denver, it may be challenging to manage a fifth highly-paid starter with the restrictive apron rules.
The Nuggets would need to find a way to dump Zeke Nnaji's salary to stay under the projected second apron in 2026-27, provided they don't make more significant changes by then.
Current averages (79 games, 77 starts): 33.9 minutes, 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 39.7 percent from three
Closest comp: Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million)
Expectation: $94 million over four years
No. 20 Pick: Malaki Branham, San Antonio Spurs
7 of 24
As noted earlier, the Spurs must pick and choose carefully where they put their resources, as contending rosters quickly get expensive.
Branham has shown signs he can space the floor, but San Antonio needs more time to evaluate the soon-to-be 22-year-old wing before making a larger financial commitment to him.
Current averages (47 games, zero starts): 9.1 minutes, 5.0 points, 1.1 rebounds, 40.5 percent from three
Closest comp: Zeke Nnaji (four years, $32 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 18 Pick: Dalen Terry, Chicago Bulls
8 of 24
Dalen Terry played in a career-high 73 games this past season (up from 59 in 2023-24), but he averaged only 4.5 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 13.5 minutes per game. He hasn't done enough to make them reinvest in him at this time.
The Bulls historically like their rookie-scale players at a discount. If Terry is willing to take a team-friendly extension, Chicago may take advantage. Otherwise, he could be salary filler in a trade, or he might just play out the final year of his rookie-scale deal.
If Terry can build upon his positive third season into a more substantial role, he could stick around with the Bulls longer via restricted free agency in 2026.
Current averages (73 games, five starts): 13.5 minutes, 4.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, 35.6 percent from three
Closest comp: Chris Duarte (who wasn't extended last summer by the Sacramento Kings and got traded in the offseason to the Bulls)
Expectation: No deal
No. 17 Pick: Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
9 of 24
The Rockets jumped from lottery fixture to playoff contender over the past two years. Although they lost in the first round to the Golden State Warriors, their young talent up and down the roster gives them plenty to look forward.
The bill already came due for Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green last offseason. The Rockets now need to decide whether to extend Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason this summer or allow them to test restricted free agency next year. Breakout player Amen Thompson is extension-eligible next summer.
Eason is a tough, physical defender who fits into the team's style, but Houston may not be ready to reinvest in him. He struggled to stay healthy throughout the year, and with their payroll rising, Thompson emerging and potential star-chasing of players like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Devin Booker via trade, that could limit how much the Rockets will do now.
Current averages (57 games, 16 starts): 24.9 minutes, 12.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 34.2 percent from three
Closest comp: Corey Kispert (four years, $54 million), but Eason may think it's Trey Murphy III (four years, $112 million)
Expectation: No deal (though if he gets traded, a new team may be willing)
No. 15 Pick: Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
10 of 24
Mark Williams is impressive when he's healthy. That's the primary issue for the 23-year-old, who has played in only 106 games over his three years with the Hornets.
Charlotte already tried to trade him to the Los Angeles Lakers for Dalton Knecht and future draft picks, but Williams failed his physical with the Lakers, which led to his awkward return to the Hornets. With that in mind, it's hard to imagine the Hornets giving Williams a hefty extension or him inking a lesser contract when he could earn a much larger deal with a monster 2025-26 campaign.
Instead, look for the Hornets to shop Williams again this offseason. His next team might be willing to pay up, but given his durability concerns, he also may need to wait until next summer for a new deal.
Current averages (44 games, 41 starts): 26.6 minutes, 15.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks
Closest comp: Trey Murphy III (four years, $112 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 14 Pick: Ochai Agbaji, Toronto Raptors
11 of 24
The Raptors acquired Brandon Ingram from the New Orleans Pelicans at the trade deadline and proceeded to sign him to a three-year, $120 million extension. Their payroll is now in the luxury-tax range, which could lead to a tax-cutting trade (probably RJ Barrett) that could shift Ochai Agbaji's role with the team.
Agbaji has the one skill the Raptors arguably need the most: shooting. He shot 39.9 percent from deep this past season, which was a significant jump from his 32.6 percent clip over his first two years.
Toronto might use this offseason as an opportunity to lock up Agbaji on a favorable contract.
Current averages (64 games, 45 starts): 27.2 minutes, 10.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 39.9 percent from three
Closest comp: Moses Moody (three years, $37.5 million)
Expectation: $32 million over three seasons (including a third-year team option)
No. 13 Pick: Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
12 of 24
The Pistons relied heavily on Jalen Duren this season as a nightly double-double threat who provided efficient inside scoring and rim protection. With reserve big man Isaiah Stewart II sidelined by a knee issue in the playoffs, Duren averaged nearly 34 minutes per game in their first-round series against the New York Knicks.
After giving Cade Cunningham a max deal last offseason, Detroit's next step is a lucrative deal for Duren. He might be eyeing the full max deal that Evan Mobley received from the Cleveland Cavaliers, while the Pistons may want to go closer to the five-year, $131-136 million deal that the Minnesota Timberwolves gave wing Jaden McDaniels two years ago.
The Pistons could get gun-shy on the length of the deal and offer Duren only four years instead of five. Either way, paying him would be an essential step toward maintaining the chemistry from the team's most successful season in a decade.
Current averages (78 games, 78 starts): 26.1 minutes, 11.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 69.2 percent from the field
Closest comp: Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million) or McDaniels from 2023 (five years, $131 million)
Expectation: $112 million over four seasons
No. 12 Pick: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
13 of 24
Jalen Williams was named to his first All-Star team this year and helped the Thunder reach 68 wins as their No. 2 scoring option behind MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Based on his resume and recent history, it would be surprising if he doesn't get a full max extension right away.
At worst, he's OKC's version of Franz Wagner. Trying to force Williams to take less than a max might only hurt the chemistry that the team thrives upon.
The sticking point in negotiations may come down to whether Williams gets more than the 25 percent max should he earn one of the necessary accolades (most likely an All-NBA nod in 2025-26).
Current averages (69 games, 69 starts): 32.4 minutes, 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 36.5 percent from three
Closest comp: Wagner (five years, $224.2 million)
Expectation: Five-year max (at 25 percent, not 30)
No. 11 Pick: Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder
14 of 24
The Thunder killed the 2022 draft, although Ousmane Dieng has yet to pop. In retrospect, taking Dieng over Williams was a wild choice, but that just shows how hit-and-miss the draft can be.
The soon-to-be 22-year-old Dieng still may have his best basketball ahead of him. However, he might never fully get the chance to develop in Oklahoma City given the Thunder's crowded depth chart.
After finishing first in the Western Conference last year, the Thunder added win-now players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso last offseason. Less-heralded prospects such as Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe also blossomed ahead of schedule, further pushing Dieng out of the rotation.
The Thunder may be short on roster space with so many returning players and first-round picks, which could cause them to trade Dieng this offseason. If so, his new team likely wouldn't have seen enough to give him an extension before the October deadline.
Current averages (37 games, one start): 10.9 minutes, 3.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, 32.4 percent from three
Closest comp: Chris Duarte (not extended)
Expectation: No deal
No. 9 Pick: Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs
15 of 24
Jeremy Sochan is a strong defender, but he doesn't stretch the floor. The Spurs experimented with him as a point forward in prior years, but the arrivals of De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle reduced their need for another ball-handler.
Sochan is probably a bench player moving forward, which may limit how much the Spurs are willing to pay him at this juncture.
Like the Houston Rockets, San Antonio is armed with significant trade assets to land a star player, which could delay a Sochan extension. However, he may be more appealing to the Spurs than another team, and they have enough available salary and draft picks to swing a big trade even without including him.
Sochan might be willing to take a solid-but-team-friendly deal.
Current averages (54 games, 23 starts): 25.3 minutes, 11.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 30.8 percent from three
Closest comp: Moses Moody (three years, $37.5 million)
Expectation: $33 million over three years
No. 8 Pick: Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
16 of 24
Dyson Daniels is fresh off winning the NBA's Most Improved Player award, and he came in second for Defensive Player of the Year. The 22-year-old guard spiked precisely at the right time.
The Hawks are a middling team, and they recently fired general manager Landry Fields and promoted Onsi Saleh to replace him. How to proceed with Daniels is one of Saleh's first key decisions unless the Hawks hire a president of basketball operations ahead of free agency.
Daniels isn't a great scorer, but he is a defensive menace. If the Hawks don't offer him enough this offseason, he'll explore restricted free agency in 2026 and could be a real threat to receive a hefty offer sheet.
The Hawks should try to find a reasonable compromise with him this summer.
Current averages (76 games, 76 starts): 33.8 minutes, 14.1 points, 3.0 steals, 34.0 percent from three
Closest comp: Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million)
Expectation: $94 million over four seasons
No. 7 Pick: Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
17 of 24
Portland was hoping that Shaedon Sharpe would break through this year, but he suffered an early shoulder injury that caused him to miss the first eight games of the year. In his absence, Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara cemented their roles.
Sharpe is a high-potential, explosive athlete, but he needs to improve as a defender and outside shooter. He shot only 31.1 percent from deep on a career-high 6.6 attempts per game this season.
Sharpe remains an unfinished product, and the Blazers might not want to pay him based on what he might be in the future—at least not to the amount he may expect.
Current averages (72 games, 52 starts): 31.3 minutes, 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 31.1 percent from three
Closest comp: Corey Kispert (four years, $54 million) to Jalen Green (three years, $105.3 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 6 Pick: Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
18 of 24
The Pacers stole the first two games of their second-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers and might be headed for their second straight trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Bennedict Mathurin provides Indiana with toughness and scoring off the bench. He still needs to improve his outside shot, although his 3-of-5 night from deep in Game 1 helped fuel the Pacers' upset win.
How far the Pacers go in this year's playoffs and Mathurin's contribution to that run may determine his future in Indiana, as the franchise historically avoids the luxury tax.
With starting center Myles Turner headed into free agency, Indiana may need to consolidate players to make room for his new contract. That could lead to Mathurin relocating, where a new franchise may offer him a lucrative deal.
Current averages (72 games, 49 starts): 29.8 minutes, 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 34.0 percent from three
Closest comp: Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million) or McDaniels from 2023 (five years, $131 million)
Expectation: No deal (unless he gets traded)
No. 5 Pick: Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
19 of 24
Jaden Ivey got off to a strong start this season, but he suffered a broken fibula in early January and missed the rest of the year.
Ivey could be the reason why Detroit goes from a first-round knockout to a deeper postseason contender once he's healthy. But for now, he's still a maybe.
He needs time to prove himself, as a contract offer after a lost year may not be close to what he'll get as a restricted free agent in 2026.
Current averages (30 games, 30 starts): 29.9 minutes, 17.6 points, 4.0 assists, 40.9 percent from three
Closest comp: Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million) or Jalen Green (three years, $105.3 million)
Expectation: No deal
No. 4 Pick: Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
20 of 24
Keegan Murray may find offseason negotiations with the Kings difficult. As Sacramento brought in more scorers, his touches diminished, as did his production and efficiency.
The Kings also parted ways with general manager Monte McNair, who originally drafted Murray. He has to hope team governor Vivek Ranadivé and new general manager Scott Perry are fans of his game.
Murray could wind up as a wait-and-see candidate who's forced to test restricted free agency in 2026. However, a compromise could be reached if he and the Kings are willing. He might not get to the $20 million annual range, but perhaps something above the 2026 non-taxpayer mid-level exception (projected to be $15.5 million) could be an acceptable middle ground.
Current averages (76 games, 76 starts): 34.3 minutes, 12.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 34.3 percent from three
Closest comp: Corey Kispert (four years, $54 million)
Expectation: $75 million over four (or less if Murray waits for restricted free agency)
No. 3 Pick: Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
21 of 24
Jabari Smith Jr. may be a positive force on the Rockets with his length, defense and ability to spread the floor (though that still needs to improve). He's more of a role player than a star, which isn't necessarily the hope for a No. 3 overall pick.
Because he still hasn't broken out as a primary scorer, Houston isn't likely to roll out the kind of large extension that Smith might seek. He also could be part of a trade package for a superstar such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant, so the Rockets might not want to take him off the table by extending him.
In that regard, Smith and Tari Eason are in a similar boat. Don't be surprised if both become restricted free agents next July.
Current averages (57 games, 39 starts): 30.1 minutes, 12.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 35.4 percent from three
Closest comp: Corey Kispert (four years, $54 million) to Jalen Johnson (five years, $150 million)
Expectation: No deal (though a new team may be willing if he gets traded)
No. 2 Pick: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
22 of 24
Like Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren is an integral part of an elite NBA team with championship aspirations. However, maxing out Williams, Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (who will be eligible for a four-year, $293.4 million extension this offseason) would limit what the Thunder can do with the rest of their roster.
Massive extensions for Holmgren and Williams wouldn't be an issue for the 2025-26 campaign, but they would once they begin in 2026-27. Still, outside of Alex Caruso's $21 million salary for 2027-28, most of the Thunder's contracts can or will come off the books by then.
With the cap projected to climb by 10 percent each of the next seasons, OKC should be able to put off tomorrow's problems with a focus on today.
The Thunder might try to negotiate Holmgren down a bit, perhaps to the Alperen Şengün range, but disturbing chemistry is a genuine concern. Does a slight discount impact the Thunder's long-term payroll pressure enough for that risk?
Unless NBA teams collectively decide that they no longer have to give out gigantic rookie-scale extensions (which they have the last few years), then pencil in Holmgren for a significant contract extension this summer.
Current averages (32 games, 32 starts): 27.4 minutes, 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 37.9 percent from three
Closest comp: Evan Mobley (five years, $269.1 million)
Expectation: Max extension (but starting at 25 percent, not 30 percent of the cap)
No. 1 Pick: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
23 of 24
Paolo Banchero was an All-Star in 2023-24, but an oblique injury knocked him out of the running this past season. When healthy, he's a powerful scoring wing akin to Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown—at least that's what the Magic hope.
The larger question is filling the roster with the right offensive balance. The Magic currently defend well, but they lack shooting, playmaking and durability.
Getting Jalen Suggs back healthy from a knee injury will be a big step forward for Orlando. Banchero and Franz Wagner developing their three-point shot to better complement each other would help, too. Still, none of that will be decided this summer when the Magic roll out a max extension to Banchero.
Orlando would probably prefer not to give Banchero the 30 percent max criteria, but that's what NBA teams religiously do for their franchise players.
Current averages (46 games, 46 starts): 34.4 minutes, 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 32.0 percent from three
Closest comp: Scottie Barnes (five years, $224.2 million), Cade Cunningham (five years, up to $269.1 million)
Expectation: Full max (with potential to reach 30 percent of the cap)
Others
24 of 24
Not every first-round pick from the 2022 draft class will complete their rookie-scale contract. Jake LaRavia (No. 19) had his fourth-year option declined by the Memphis Grizzlies, who then traded him to the Sacramento Kings. LaRavia will be an unrestricted free agent in July.
AJ Griffin (No. 16), formerly with the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets, left basketball for personal reasons.
The rest are still in the NBA but were waived before completing the third years on their initial contracts: Johnny Davis (No. 10), David Roddy (No. 23), MarJon Beauchamp (No. 24), Wendell Moore Jr. (No. 26), Patrick Baldwin Jr. (No. 28), and TyTy Washington Jr. (No. 29). None are extension-eligible.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
